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  • DAY48SVR: Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 17, 2026 07:49:42
    ACUS48 KWNS 170749
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 170747

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An upper trough will gradually approach the Rockies into the middle
    of next week, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying
    modest low-level moisture return. As this occurs, cooler
    temperatures and stronger flow aloft will overspread this low-level
    moisture, resulting in increased potential for thunderstorm
    development. There are some indications of enough buoyancy/shear
    overlap in the Desert Southwest to Great Plains states during the
    Days 5-7 (Wednesday-Friday) time frame to support an isolated severe
    threat. Calibrated AI/ML guidance supports this potential, with
    guidance trends showing gradually increasing probabilities. However,
    given anticipated low buoyancy, the severe threat still appears
    quite isolated and localized.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, October 18, 2026 07:57:48
    ACUS48 KWNS 180757
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 180755

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern
    Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior
    West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the
    Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend.
    Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic
    guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector
    over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional
    favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups
    would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also
    indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, October 19, 2026 08:32:26
    ACUS48 KWNS 190832
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 190830

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A mid-level trough will progress across the Rockies late this week
    and eject into the central and northern Plains states this weekend.
    Thereafter, a more zonal, progressive upper-air pattern will become
    established across the CONUS, with stronger flow aloft relegated to
    the northern CONUS, and multiple mid-level impulses poised to
    traverse this flow into early next week. At the moment, the best
    chance for any severe potential (albeit isolated) will be across the
    Desert Southwest on Day 4 (Thursday) and across the High Plains on
    Day 5 (Friday). In the Days 4-5 period, along the eastern portion of
    the upper trough, a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow will overspread
    the Desert Southwest into the southern and central High Plains, atop
    modest low-level moisture. Marginal instability and strong vertical
    wind shear should overlap across the Desert Southwest on Thursday
    and over the southern to central High Plains on Friday to support
    scattered strong thunderstorms, a couple of which may briefly reach
    severe limits. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe
    threat, as also suggested by ML/AI guidance, severe probabilities
    were not introduced this outlook.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 07:59:36
    ACUS48 KWNS 200759
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 200757

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

    Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the
    central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be
    likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest
    into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe
    thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger
    forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability
    over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support
    will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection
    into the Plains.

    Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper
    troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper
    flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A
    relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the
    CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also
    supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 08:02:56
    ACUS48 KWNS 210802
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 210800

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

    Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this
    weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level
    flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week.
    Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most
    of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development
    through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe
    weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4
    (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper
    trough prior to ejection.

    Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and
    amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next
    week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the
    progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern
    extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass
    over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or
    beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible,
    questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack
    of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this
    outlook.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 22, 2026 07:57:12
    ACUS48 KWNS 220756
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 220755

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

    Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next
    week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the
    central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface
    troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves,
    encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and
    thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows
    minimal convective instability associated with these surface
    troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms
    into next week.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 23, 2026 07:50:48
    ACUS48 KWNS 230750
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 230748

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0248 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

    Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A series of upper troughs will move across portions of the northern
    and central U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. Around the middle of the
    work (Day 6/Wed), a larger-scale upper trough is forecast to develop
    across the Plains and Midwest, and eventually the eastern U.S. by
    the weekend. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast
    across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. While this will likely
    support some thunderstorm and shower activity, boundary layer
    moisture will remain limited, and only weak instability is forecast
    and will largely remain displaced from stronger deep-layer flow.
    Overall, severe potential appears low through Day 8/Fri.

    ..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 24, 2026 07:52:56
    ACUS48 KWNS 240752
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 240750

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

    Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat
    period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains
    and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a
    low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of
    the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface
    high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across
    parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer
    moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.

    Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western
    U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the
    East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the
    Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains
    within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is
    forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While
    periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the
    Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to
    a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic
    environment.

    ..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, October 25, 2026 07:20:04
    ACUS48 KWNS 250719
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 250717

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

    Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower
    amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern
    CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will
    be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time,
    supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers
    and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak
    vertical shear will preclude severe potential.

    ..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, October 26, 2026 07:53:12
    ACUS48 KWNS 260753
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 260750

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0250 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

    Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A low-amplitude and weak deep-layer flow regime will be in place
    across much of the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. By Friday, a weak
    midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the southern Plains to
    the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Modest boundary layer moisture will be
    in place across the southern Plains, resulting in weak
    destabilization. The ejecting midlevel shortwave trough should
    support widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of
    TX/OK into the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity, though severe potential
    appears low.

    Strengthening southwesterly flow will develop over the Plains as an
    upper trough deepens in the West and an upper ridge amplifies across
    the MS Valley during the Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday period. This will
    bring continued rain chances to portions of central CONUS, but
    severe potential should remain low due to a modest thermodynamic
    environment. As this western upper trough progresses eastward into
    early next week, a cold front will shift east/southeast across the
    Plains toward the MS Valley, along with thunderstorm chances. Some
    severe potential could accompany this activity depending on the
    evolution of the upper trough and development of any stronger
    surface cyclone. However, predictability is low via large spread
    among forecast guidance on Day 8/Monday, precluding severe
    delineation at this time.

    ..Leitman.. 10/26/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 07:45:52
    ACUS48 KWNS 270745
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 270743

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

    Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of
    thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the
    Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel
    shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer
    flow regime.

    Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone
    and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the
    Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday.
    Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface
    cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture
    ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing
    moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest
    instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around
    850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms
    depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty
    is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement
    and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for
    increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next
    week.

    ..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 07:45:18
    ACUS48 KWNS 280745
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 280743

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

    Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed -- Central CONUS...

    A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western
    U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is
    forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and
    slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days
    6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is
    forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly
    eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop
    across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given
    increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front,
    in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large
    spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the
    evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared
    to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not
    show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends
    bear watching over the coming days.

    ..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 29, 2026 07:44:24
    ACUS48 KWNS 290744
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 290742

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

    Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity...

    An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western
    states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a
    deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on
    Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper
    MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across
    the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a
    strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains.

    Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich
    boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest
    destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel
    to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer
    flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training
    precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly
    progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk.
    Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across
    parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast
    Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At
    this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to
    include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be
    monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to
    mid-week.

    ..Leitman.. 10/29/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 30, 2026 09:01:06
    ACUS48 KWNS 300900
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 300859

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

    Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on
    Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into
    the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid
    60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and
    cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main
    severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold
    front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely.
    Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient
    low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear
    structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will
    be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.

    By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with
    more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS
    Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold
    front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for
    damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but
    substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and
    widespread clouds/precip.

    This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern
    states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over
    some of the Gulf Coast states.

    ..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 31, 2026 08:09:20
    ACUS48 KWNS 310809
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 310807

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

    Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS
    Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the
    Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front
    which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting
    rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and
    into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor
    isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.

    For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative
    tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation
    across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge,
    which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal
    with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.

    ..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 09:33:28
    ACUS48 KWNS 010933
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 010931

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0331 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

    Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the OH Valley
    and Great Lakes on Wed/D4, with a secondary trough moving across the
    Four Corners and into the Southern Plains. An occluded surface low
    will also move across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front
    moving across the OH/TN Valleys and toward the Appalachians. While
    low-level moisture will support rain and thunderstorms along this
    front, the lifting of the upper system and weak instability will
    result in decreasing severe risk. This weakening trend should
    continue into Thu/D5 as the front moves across the Mid Atlantic and
    off the East Coast. Behind these systems, the pattern will favor
    high pressure and minimal chances of thunderstorms.

    ..Jewell.. 11/01/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, November 02, 2026 08:46:38
    ACUS48 KWNS 020846
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 020844

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0244 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

    Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    On Thur/D4, the upper low over the Great Lakes will weak as the
    larger-scale upper trough moves into the eastern USA. An associated
    cold front will also push toward the eastern seaboard late Thur into
    Fri/D5. A marginally unstable air mass may support thunderstorms
    along the front over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, but
    this along with weak low-level winds are unlikely to support severe
    storms.

    From Sat/D6 to Mon/D8, an upper ridge may develop over the West,
    with possible trough amplifications into the Plains as upper waves
    round the ridge and dig southeastward. This will support additional reinforcements of high pressure into the central and eastern states,
    with minimal chance of thunderstorms.

    ..Jewell.. 11/02/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, November 03, 2026 09:12:20
    ACUS48 KWNS 030912
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 030910

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026

    Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across
    the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the
    Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place
    from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold
    front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications
    are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in
    the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit
    further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with
    sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.

    From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread
    across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and
    instability offshore.

    ..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, November 04, 2026 09:20:24
    ACUS48 KWNS 040920
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 040918

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0318 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    For the Sat/D4 through Wed/D8 period, thunderstorm potential will be
    minimal across the U.S. due to a lack of instability. An upper
    trough will exit the eastern U.S. on Sat/D4, with high pressure over
    most of the CONUS. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to dig
    southeastward across eastern Canada and into the northeastern
    states, maintaining a cool and stable pattern. Any appreciable
    instability will remain offshore, with little if any severe
    potential expected.

    ..Jewell.. 11/04/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, November 05, 2026 09:46:06
    ACUS48 KWNS 050945
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 050944

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through
    the period.

    Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over
    far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves
    out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with
    marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast
    surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

    Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive
    troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes
    and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure
    maintaining stable conditions.

    ..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, November 07, 2026 09:41:00
    ACUS48 KWNS 070940
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 070938

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    During the mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to
    move across the western and central Gulf Coast, where a moist
    airmass will likely be in place. Thunderstorm development will be
    possible near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana from Tuesday into
    Wednesday. On Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible in
    parts of the eastern U.S, ahead of a deepening upper-level trough.
    No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. from
    Tuesday to Thursday.

    On Friday and Saturday, dry and cool air associated with high
    pressure is forecast to dominate the central and eastern U.S., which
    will likely limit thunderstorm potential over most of the U.S.

    ..Broyles.. 11/07/2026
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)