Forum: KrAABy Gamer BBS

MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 17, 2026 17:37:58

AWUS01 KWNH 171737
FFGMPD
FLZ000-172335-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1502
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Areas affected...South Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171735Z - 172335Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates will
develop and expand in coverage over the next several hours. A
threat for some urban flash flooding will exist along the I-95
corridor from West Palm Beach down through Homestead.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows an increasingly agitated CU/TCU field across south Florida
as daytime heating and a moisture-rich airmass pooled south of a
cold front contributes to an increasingly unstable boundary layer.

MLCAPE values are on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg, and this
coupled with PWs approaching 2.25 inches as noted in the 12Z MFL
RAOB sounding will promote an environment conducive for developing
areas of convection capable of producing high rainfall rates. Very
high WBZ heights (locally over 14,000 ft) and the depiction of a
deeply tropical sounding will support highly efficient processes
to elevate these rates.

The catalyst for convection will come from the low-level forcing
associated with the approach of a cold front from the north, and
also proximity of a pre-frontal surface trough much closer to the
I-95 corridor of southeast FL. Convective initiation is imminent
along this surface trough as seen in visible satellite images and
LightningCast data. Radar already shows some thunderstorms
especially around Fort Lauderdale and near Miami that are
beginning to produce some heavier rainfall rates in just the last
30 minutes.

Expect additional expansion of convection over the next several
hours across south Florida as low-level convergence interacts with
the increasing instability. Some mesoscale outflow boundary
interactions will be possible as well in time.

The latest hires HREF/REFS consensus suggests rainfall rates may
reach as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger storms, and
with slow cell-motions, some spotty storm totals by this evening
may reach 3 to 5 inches. Generally, this should support a concern
for some urban flash flooding along the I-95 corridor from West
Palm Beach on down through Homestead.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9T-59H-YfDmfjuKjdErLUJyqzEplIQDLHJ0Nii9Ot24Qhhj3q2g4Qgl4F2dVggAE8S_FMldsEb2KQihGI0ohQ5JDDyw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27138004 27047983 26537978 25757996 25448018
25378055 25718082 26148078 26658058 27038031
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, October 18, 2026 03:38:02

AWUS01 KWNH 180337
FFGMPD
FLZ000-180700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1503
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180335Z - 180700Z

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall rates
developing over the coastal waters will affect coastal portions of
South Florida through the early morning hours. A threat for some
urban flash flooding will exist along the I-95 corridor from West
Palm Beach southward to Homestead through 3 am local time.

DISCUSSION...A complex of nearly stationary thunderstorms has
developed between Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach with
convergent low level flow near a cold front. Although most of the
heaviest rainfall has been just 5-10 miles offshore, some of the
heavier rainfall rates have begun to move inland near Deerfield
Beach, with reports of 4 inch per hour rainfall rates from private
observing stations. This will be enough to overwhelm drainage
systems in the area, and could result in localized but impactful
flash flooding through 3 am local time. Increasing coastal
convergence may result in an expansion of this complex of storms
and affect more of the neighboring towns.

The latest CAM guidance is quite varied in placement of the
greatest QPF maxima, with the RRFS likely underdone with amounts,
and the HRRR more reasonable with placement of ongoing convection.
The potential exists for 4-7 inches of rainfall where these storms
persist the longest, especially over northeastern Broward and
southeastern Palm Beach counties, and this could easily result in
some instances of flash flooding.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9klmHTwybN8vEWIESZ3fX00sC9mjN1zcFJah7hkQf1UXdBu5PuYYFMMYgZ-gNga2ntL-X9bX7Erko9zw0zbgGxBPyFk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26918015 26838000 26567994 26008004 25638022
25748046 25948044 26318033 26648035 26818027
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 07:15:38

AWUS01 KWNH 210715
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-211300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1504
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...North-Central Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210713Z - 211300Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity over the next several hours across much of
north-central Arizona. Some of the stronger storms may produce
rainfall rates exceeding an inch per hour that could result in
some instances of flash flooding through 13Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating an increase in
convection across central Arizona that is moving in a general NNE
direction. The atmosphere is becoming more conducive for
additional storms as PWs rise into the 1 to 1.5 inch range and
mixed layer CAPE climbs into the 500-750 J/kg range based on
recent SPC mesoanalysis. This will allow for increasing coverage
and organization over the next few hours, along with rates
approaching or slightly exceeding an inch per hour.

Recent CAM guidance remains varied on the magnitude of QPF
expected, with the ARW and the NAM conest indicating the potential
for some swaths of 1 to 2 inch amounts, whereas the RRFS and HRRR
are generally lower with expected amounts. If rates become heavy
enough with multiple rounds of storms, some instances of flash
flooding will be possible.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!503bHph6kWtUBlsuXK_ZrqAJdZY77DCHognivL8A9H2u7Vo7ce9JE7nwmcI5pUZ-Ubm8cXEZQ5KG0Q8tkYBjg-72uow$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37191068 37120967 36460938 35330985 34441037
33891078 33741149 33721208 34121258 34721253
35831226 36951157
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 12:58:50

AWUS01 KWNH 211258
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-211830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1505
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...West-Central to Northern Arizona...Far Southern
Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211300Z - 211830Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for back-building/repeating
thunderstorms continues through diurnal minimum in instability.
Additional streak or two of 1-1.5" totals crossing areas having
received 1-2" continue to pose possible localized flash flooding
concerns through morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows anomalous closed low off the SW
California Coast continues to slowly advance northeastward with
increasing dPVA throughout the southwest while the area of concern
downstream remains along the western edge of a confluent moist
warm conveyor belt emanating from the subtropical Eastern Pacific.
CIRA LPW/LVT suite along with RAP analysis notes that slightly
veered surface to 850mb moist flow comes from the higher moisture
from the shallow/warm Gulf of California northward concurrent with
850-500mb layers coming more northward from a further south source
in the main ocean area south of Baja California. Total PWats up
to 1.5 through the SW Deserts of Arizona spread northward with
1.2-1.3" spreading over the Mogollon Rim into the western San
Francisco Plateau. Moderately unstable mid-levels support 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE along the interface of the sharp western gradient
of the moisture plume (and eastward) from the Colorado River
eastward.

Aloft, the sub-tropical jet axis slowly turns anticyclonically in
proximity to Sun Valley into the southern SF Plateau providing a
broad area of diffluence aloft within stronger overall flow.
Effective bulk shear over 50kts due to speed and low level veering
support organized low level convergence and eventually organized,
rotating updraft potential. As such, the upwind edge across NW
Maricopa into Yavapai county has seen flanking redevelopment
through the morning with KIWA RADAR further hinting upstream
weaker returns indicative of higher elevated TCu/castellaus that
has not tapped lower level moisture convergence/instability but
has the upper-level dynamics to support those updrafts. As such,
expectation is further development through the morning even in the
diurnal minimum of instability.

Given the overall moisture/convergence especially if updrafts are
rotating (like those currently in the vicinity of Flagstaff) may
support 1-1.5"/hr rates. Deep layer stronger flow, cell motions
are quick even with slightly slowing due to rotating updrafts,
local duration will limit overall totals. As such, it is required
for repeating tracks to result in localized 1-1.5" totals to
support potential localized flash flooding concerns. However,
given the placement of the upper-level support and slow change
appear to be probable through the morning. Additionally, expected
tracks may cross those that have received 1"+ localized totals
already this morning further helping the possibility for isolated
to widely scattered possible incident(s) of flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_EjmNpzJ43_DAMCA_Pe0H4h9QwENm70owYvpcFMMDf6ymPUY537izR-oJ7ASZbaKkPIVZy4QBzoymSPvekZkL2e9BgQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37841088 37650982 36820949 36050983 34801092
33851231 33591341 34151369 35471347 36801290
37651195
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 15:17:36

AWUS01 KWNH 211517
FFGMPD
CAZ000-212100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1506
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1116 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern California and the Channel
Islands...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211515Z - 212100Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective potential with isolated slow
moving cells capable of 1-1.5"/hr. Localized 1-2" totals near
urban or steep terrain may pose localized flash flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows very strong, broad closed low
centered near 35.5N126W with a series of peripheral
shortwave/vorticity centers lifting along the eastern and northern
quadrants with the latest lifting north along 121W north of 30N
but in sufficent wake of the prior to support a broadening of the precipitation/stratus shield within the isentropic ascent portion
of the WCB crossing the warm fornt that remains well southwest of
the Channel Islands. Yet, CIRA LPW/LVT show a slug of enhanced
sub-tropical moisture in the 700-500mb layer coincident with this
diffluent shield supporting 75-100 kg/m/s moisture flux with
trailing similar flux values in the 850-700mb layer approaching
the Channel Island while the surface to 850mb remains in the warm
sector along 120W with values of .75" for that layer with totals
of 1.5". The shield of 1.25" has reached the SW California coast
from SBA to W Ventura. As such, broad shield precipitation has
started to filter into western Transverse Range with .25"-.33"/hr
rates expected to maintain due to orographic ascent.

Otherwise, the instability is the limiting factor at this point,
however, this is expected to increase throughout the day as CAA
aloft will overspread the approaching warm sector though the
California Bight toward the Transverse counties. What is
interesting, is slight temperature gradient noted off the LA/SD
coasts shows about 5 degree temp, difference that modified
soundings from the RAP is supporting a slight 500-750 J/kg of
SBCAPE along the upwind edge of the warm conveyor belt. As a
result a narrow band of convection has developed over E Santa
Barbara county and numerous backyard observations are reaching
.75-1" within the last 30 to 60 minutes. RADAR shows that the
band is weakening with time as it moves ashore, but recent HRRR
solutions suggest a southeastward expansion along the leading low
level confluence/convergence band in the Bight that slowly shifts
eastward toward Ventura county. Localized .5-1" totals in
short-duration may pose a localized flash flooding/rapid
inundation flooding concern for the coastal urban locations but
overall most areas will see this as beneficial or preemptive
toward later activity.

The aforementioned vorticity center is strengthening the triple
point currently near 33N121.5W and will drive further WAA
northward through the channel islands, with the CAA
aloft/steepening lapse rates instability is expected to rise
toward 1000 J/kg (locally 1250 J/kg) and the strengthened low
level response to the mid-level wave should focus further
convergence for convection to develop in proximity to the fronts
as they lift north. This will given an opportunity for slow moving/back-building but narrow convective cores to approach SW CA
coast and western Channel Islands. Rates of 1-1.25"/hr are
possible and localized 2" totals may be possible through 21z,
particularly through the lower slopes of the Transverse range
where orographic ascent will further contribute to prolonged
moderate rainfall.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_hWfiYexXrRMMPtx1ZGhZZxYtmikm1MmVarR8MYOJrnJmdR-SnUDYaxtRfDElF2eX_6wlnNSgJeHedS92tKD4Qiy7UQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35652036 34801942 34171757 33161790 32761837
33201956 34252066 34982079 35582103
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 18:14:22

AWUS01 KWNH 211814
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-220000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1507
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Four Corner Region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211815Z - 220000Z

SUMMARY...Strong widely scattered thunderstorms within Warm
Conveyor Belt will continue to be capable of quick .5" with
possible repeating for isolated streaks of 1-1.5" totals.
Isolated flash flooding remains possible through evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a dual core sub-tropical jet
structure across the Desert Southwest as stronger 110kt polar jet
presses eastward. This is providing large scale
divergence/diffluence across much of the area of concern, though
greatest magnitude resides over S UT/far N AZ as a bit of
shortwave ridging from SE to NW from NM into S UT, results in
increased right entrance region ascent; with braoder diffluent
split in polar/sub-tropical jet remaining along the UT/NV line.
This broad ascent continues to accelerate low level moisture flux
out of the sub-tropical eastern Pacific with dual fetch noted in
the lower layers of CIRA LPW out of the Gulf of California
aligning with mid-level flow out of the SSW to reach 1.25-1.5"
total PWat values across S AZ into the San Fransisco Plateau, at
or above record moisture values and flux.

While the strength of the mid-level flow is very strong with mean
cell motions at 30-50kts, effective bulk shear around 65kts
continues to support strong rotating updrafts that will help to
slow forward motions for right moving updrafts, to aid some
residency time for the stronger cores. Insolation has also
increased through breaks in the clouds to increase instability
across the area with 1000-1250 J/kg CAPEs starting to be analyzed
with reducing CINH. As such, an increase in convective activity
both in coverage and vigor has been noted in GOES-E Vis and
cooling tops. Stronger rotating updrafts will also support
increased directional and isallobaric influenced flux convergence
to enhance rates to over 1.5"/hr allowing for quick .5" totals
expected with faster cell motions. This alone could be an issue
for flash flooding within the slot canyons and near burn scars.

However, the key to wider/less localized flash flooding will
remain with favored training/repeating tracks and this appears
plasible given the current orientation of convergence/confluence
streaks already noted parallel to the mean flow within the warm conveyor/upper-level cirrus canopy. As such, widely scattered to
scattered incidents of 1-1.5" totals remain possible, perhaps
intersecting areas affected by earlier rounds this morning. As
such, flash flooding remains possible through the remainder of the
afternoon into evening with slow eastward expansion of the
streaks, while the upwind edge of the warm conveyor belt remains
fairly stationary just east of the CA/AZ border and along the
NV/UT line.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4OlwYUudnWP3CwnYz_qaBIjPxUNhvVICnC-TZ5TVQNdguu0vA5fannKXuHjvXpdyvJdH5SJff_qSGmO-7_qJ9XVdjmk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38601031 38280805 37510722 36330732 34940856
33660986 33271140 33311272 33981370 35491432
37141453 38481406 38551264
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 21:02:46

AWUS01 KWNH 212102
FFGMPD
CAZ000-220300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1508
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212100Z - 220300Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy rainfall potential will continue across
the Transverse Range and adjacent coastal areas of southwestern
California over the next several hours. Rainfall rates between
0.5-1"/hr are possible, allowing for isolated to widely scattered
flash flood chances into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Current upper level progression over the Pacific has
allowed for prevailing onshore flow with a defined diffluent axis
positioned right into the southern-third of California. PWATs
remain above normal within the coastal plain and adjacent terrain
encompassing the area with the most notable moisture advection
oriented orthogonal to the terrain between Big Sur down to the
northern half of the Transverse Range. Short range guidance
continues to signal the prevailing flow into the terrain with
up-slope enhancement just inland of the immediate coast leading to
pockets of 0.5-1"/hr rainfall rates plausible in the setup.
Currently seeing rates topping out just under the 0.5"/hr
threshold, however, the best ascent is currently located just off
the coast with a stronger mid-level perturbation pivoting just
away from the southern California coastal plain. This trend will
slowly shift eastward as the upper level progression allows for a
better push of the mid-level energy into the area after 00z. This
is consistent within the short range suite and associated
ensembles leading to a more defined heavy rain depiction as we
move into the evening and beyond.

Recent HREF probs for >1" remain modest (40-60%) across areas from
Orange county, northward through Los Angeles, however, a general
max between 60-90% does exist over the northern area of the
Transverse Range centered near and northwest of Santa Barbara.
This is the area most likely to see totals between 1-2", locally
higher over the next 6 hours with areas south the beneficiaries of
the heavier rainfall later in the evening. Considering the signal
in place, flash flooding will remain possible along the coastal
ranges of Southern California with the inland topography and
coastal facing slopes the most notable areas for the risk,
especially within any burn scar remnants within the terrain.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Pa8vGaZ1jzzpTKoXmoUcfEC_cK7j8UI822PQ1Skta-fFMIp1or0uM4NZNaDQtd-89St3VbCzZ6Ett6pl9VgLuTu0dQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35031895 34931863 34821837 34671818 34541796
34361765 34021739 33671724 33391712 33131702
32921709 32931737 33171772 33391810 33481824
33561851 33681891 33831917 34091979 34242018
34672036 34892001 34941965
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 22, 2026 00:01:34

AWUS01 KWNH 220000
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-220558-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1509
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
759 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Much of Arizona, Southern Utah, and the Four
Corners

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 212358Z - 220558Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall potential will continue across portions
of the Southwest U.S over the next several hours. Rainfall rates
between 0.5-1"/hr, locally higher, are possible, allowing for
scattered flash flood chances into the evening.

DISCUSSION...The general synoptic pattern remains favorable for a
continued threat of heavy rainfall into the Southwest CONUS with
an emphasis on areas of northern AZ, southern UT to the Four
Corners. Prevailing southerly flow on the leading edge of a deep,
closed upper low off the California coast will allow for a broad
axis of elevated moisture advection and sufficient shear to
maintain a steady projection of convective development over the
region. Several waves of thunderstorm activity have allowed for
multiple areas to breach 1" of rainfall over the course of the
period with several locations pushing closer to 2" in assessment
of the latest obs across northern AZ into southern UT. Expectation
is for the threat to continue this evening with a viable consensus
in the CAMs for the threat to last even into the early morning
hours.

Latest HRRR/RRFS outputs signal locally heavy precip potential
over northern and northeast AZ into southern UT, extending into
the Four Corners as flow between 850-700mb backs into the terrain
centered over this region. With sufficient buoyancy on the order
of 500-1000 MLCAPE situated over the area, along with regional
bulk shear between 40-60kts, organized convective clusters and
long lasting mesocyclonic activity will be a feature within this
setup leading to prolonged threats of heavy rain at any given
juncture. HREF probabilities for >1" additional precipitation
overnight remain very elevated at 60-90% for much of northern AZ
into southern UT, overlapping more flash flood prone areas
littered across this particular region. This was more than enough
of a depiction, along with the current thermodynamic and kinematic
posture to outline a continued threat for flash flooding heading
into the evening.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9QSXnzVO3fF3z6U7bhvh0kp6dKUsflBum7pBeSWiFetJMla5qHck8jmLCvOLvC77BZMdE_SfiHfZ69HNS3xKafOjTK0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38161338 37811138 37800986 37910880 37660827
37110764 36460735 35410757 34250876 32910961
33021168 33851260 34391381 35311442 36471443
37511406
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 22, 2026 03:00:54

AWUS01 KWNH 220300
FFGMPD
CAZ000-220854-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1510
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Southwest California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220254Z - 220854Z

Summary...Slow moving upper low off the California coast will
continue to usher in Pacific moisture with an upslope enhancement
into the coastal terrain of Southern California. Rainfall rates
upwards of 0.5-1"/hr are expected leading to isolated to widely
scattered bouts of flash flooding over the Transverse Range.

Discussion...Recent WV satellite indicates our upper level
disturbance slowly pivoting southeast with a strong low-level
moisture flux beginning to enter into the immediate California
coast to the northwest of Santa Barbara. This is likely the
encroachment of the warm front analyzed off the Southern
California coast which will drive eastward over the course of the
evening leading to a short term enhancement of the precip within
proximity of the front as it migrates along the coast. 925-700mb
flow is currently orthogonal to the coast and coastal terrain just
inland leading a likelihood of effective upslope enhancement along
the southern facing slopes of the Transverse Range situated north
of the coastal regions from just northwest of Santa Barbara,
eventually working into the San Bernardino mountains to the east
of Los Angeles. Current hi-res depictions indicate a period of
heavy rainfall within the terrain influenced regions with QPF
distributions between 1-2" additional rainfall anticipated for
these areas just inland.

Remnant burn scars and complex terrain drainage will likely be the
more focused areas for flash flooding potential this evening into
the overnight period. The forward propagation speed of the front
will be the driving force behind how prevalent the flash flooding
threat will be within the coastal terrain which models are leaning
towards a short term burst, rather than persistent banding that
typically coincides with more appreciable impacts. In this case,
the forecast is for possible flash flooding with an emphasis on
those more sensitive areas in the terrain.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4KwgUSi50Ca1-BrcgNEQytN5k2NAMMtlk_xsAUlNtwGYehl9hOuJgSy9rgOzm-o5iMgk8Kbf0M1-KHLMQMrc1-DFl9g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35112062 35102013 35001993 34841946 34911889
34891847 34881821 34781775 34641746 34191713
33781718 33311696 33061700 32771689 32461718
33001773 33211826 33491893 33791972 33972011
34292088 34862088
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 22, 2026 09:29:00

AWUS01 KWNH 220928
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-221527-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1511
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
527 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...AZ into southern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 220927Z - 221527Z

Summary...Convection streaming northward across central/northern
Arizona into southern Utah will pose an isolated to scattered
flash flood threat through 15Z. While quick cell motions have
generally kept hourly totals under 0.5 inches, high short duration
rates over increasingly saturated ground will drive runoff
concerns, with the potential for linear training bands to produce
locally significant impacts in sensitive terrain.

Discussion...A broad plume of deep tropical moisture is streaming
northward across the Southwest ahead of a mid/upper level low
tracking into California. This moisture advection has pushed PW
values to near or at record levels for mid to late October across
a wide corridor. Despite being near the typical diurnal minimum in
instability, thermodynamic profiles remain unusually buoyant, with
CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg across portions of Arizona and hovering
near 500 J/kg into southern Utah.

Convective activity across Arizona is expected to persist and
gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the early
morning hours. This will be driven by strengthening large scale
forcing for ascent from the west as the upper low approaches,
combined with the eastward progression of the low level moisture
transport axis into central Arizona. Convective elements
developing within this corridor will continue to stream rapidly
north northeastward into southern Utah.

To this point, fast storm motions to the north-northeast have
largely kept hourly rainfall totals in check, generally below 0.5
inches. However, short duration rainfall rates remain quite high
within the convective cores. Furthermore, antecedent rainfall over
the past 24 hours has left conditions increasingly saturated and
hydrologically sensitive across the region. Consequently, even
quick moving cells will be capable of generating localized flash
flood concerns. As convective coverage expands and instability
gradually ticks upward this morning, cumulative rainfall totals
will steadily mount over Arizona and southern Utah.

The deep unidirectional southerly flow supports localized training
and backbuilding, particularly across central Arizona at the nose
of the low level moisture transport axis and along the sharpest
instability gradient. Several recent HRRR/RRFS runs have indicated
this potential, highlighting a corridor between Phoenix and
Flagstaff favored for training convection capable of producing
rates exceeding 1"/hr. Even in southern UT where hourly rates
remain under 1 inch, recent HRRR runs depict some FFG exceedance
developing by 10-12Z, with spatial coverage expanding through mid
morning. While the FFG exceedance footprint is somewhat delayed
across Arizona, HRRR TLE exceedance probabilities climb by 12Z as
linear training bands may begin to organize.

Overall, at least isolated to scattered flash flooding is
considered likely through 15Z. Given the broader synoptic
evolution and diurnal heating, this threat will likely continue
beyond 15Z and may ultimately peak later in the day. Locally
significant flash flood impacts are possible, especially across
complex terrain, slot canyons, and sensitive drainage basins.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5Wr_9h1eFs2lW_4OGLjAIg1e7Bv2fiu6iVshmclhTAWCbuNNIGiM3eGNdiob1L9BLn-ipgAal_GKnWGjHL9_g-vHxyg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38521171 38421056 38230994 37780936 37010927
35410937 34360935 33410948 33321014 33401072
33431181 33701262 34851307 35801325 37771314
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 22, 2026 13:17:34

AWUS01 KWNH 221317
FFGMPD
CAZ000-221900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1512
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
916 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Southern California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221315Z - 221900Z

SUMMARY...Shallow, narrow updrafts capable of efficient rainfall
production and rates up to 1"/hr may pose scattered focused flash
flooding concerns due to recent soil saturation and within urban
centers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite denotes core of the seasonally
anomalous deep upper-low just west-southwest of Cape Conception
but appears to be transferring energy/center toward dominant
shortwave rounding the southern base of the low into the
California Bight. This is helping to steepen the older surface to
mid-level occlusion along the northwest edge of the deep cyclone
as it starts to slide southeastward, providing some increased
convergence along it, though also helping to tighten the gradient
to enhance southerly onshore flow along Santa Barbara, Ventura
counties.

Steeper lapse rates aloft/CAA and modestly warm lower layers
support increased SBCAPEs toward 1000 J/kg through the
southeast/WAA quadrant of the the larger system. Onshore increase
of winds to 10-15kts noted in VWP gain the frictional convergence
of the coast and further orographic ascent from the southern
slopes of the Transverse Ranges resulting in scattered convergence
sufficient for convective development. Regional RADAR and 3.9um
SWIR loop from GOES-W denote this well, with narrow updraft,
shallow CB development in the last few hours along the coast.
CIRA LPW shows modest remaining .3 and .5" LPW values for the
lowest layers (sfc-850, 850-700mb) for modest rainfall efficiency
perhaps supporting rates up to 1", though the broadness of the
updraft will be the greater determining factor for greatest rate
potential.

Residency time will be the driver for the greatest totals, . Given
the slow transfer of energy/center of the deep cyclone; eastward
propagation will be very slow and given consistent convergence
location on the cells upwind flank, back-building/regeneration of
updrafts will likely result in those 30-60 minute time frames and
result in the totals of 1-1.5" range though widely
scattered/focused locally due to the spacing/size of those updraft
cores. There is some potential given the orientation of the coast
line that a slow drift from the east will move through areas
affected by prior smaller cores especially across Ventura into Los
Angeles county with time.

Isolated flash flooding may be possible given recent moderate to
heavy rainfall yesterday (1-2+" totals) and urban areas generally
limiting infiltration of these higher rates. MRMS Flash unit
stream flows are already locally over 200-300 cfs/smi, providing
further confidence that higher values will be reached over the
next few hours locally.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5DNhS3fT62Jp5kvPHh5nJ2QjJgLVX2R_4Y-HTqnWB7tu9oJZG4GEknh-isqRTfGyU9HVv40Cjb-xARvd6agec9iQF0g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35592055 35372012 34861961 34661925 34501835
34341721 33811685 33271698 33481791 33271839
33601901 33751965 33892029 34432078 34982106
35552115
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 22, 2026 15:20:32

AWUS01 KWNH 221520
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-222100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1513
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...S Utah...SW Colorado...NW New Mexico...Much of N
& E Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221520Z - 222100Z

SUMMARY...Wide-spread incidents of localized flash flooding remain
likely as increasing moisture/heating will support additional
convective development in bands capable of sub hourly .5-1" totals
and with repeating resulting in spots up to 2".

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows inner core of the 3.5 standard
anomaly low is starting a solid eastward shift over the last few
hours resulting in eastward height-falls in the Lower Colorado
River Valley and eastward shift of the strong 100kt 3H jet core
out of S NV/SE CA and combined with the final exit of the
sub-tropical jet core across N UT/NW CO continues to support a
broad area of diffluence/divergence across the Four Corners area,
though helping to spur eastward advancement of the tight 850-700mb
moisture core into west-central AZ toward the AZ/NM line by 00z
tonight; with veering flow further enhancing directional
convergence in the low levels over the next few hours. CIRA LVT
continue to show due confluence in the 850-700mb layer over S AZ
while peaking across the 700-500mb layer through central AZ into S
UT with values still remaining over 125-150 kg/m/s) aiding to
efficient rainfall production when there are convective elements.
However, this flux into steeper terrain (especially the San Juan
Mtns in SW CO) will provide prolonged moderate rainfall due to
orographic ascent (Atmospheric River style rainfall/flooding
concerns).

However, increasing solar heating through broken layers
(especially west of the current convective core/shield in NE AZ/NW
NM) will increase instability from 500 J/kg (S UT/N AZ) and
isolated 1500 J/kg (south-central AZ), reaching 1000 to over 2000
J/kg by 18-20z. This will allow for scattered thunderstorm
development along the north-south confluence/convergence bands
noted well in the GOES WV and IR/Visible animation. Currently,
isolated cooling tops can be seen within the diffluence arc from
SW UT across N central AZ toward central AZ Valley...eventually
will reach similar mature appearance as active convection along
the leading edge of the deep moisture/instability currently from N
Graham, AZ county to SW McKinley county. Bulk shear remains well
above normal with broad 40+ kts across the entire area, suggesting
better organized rotating updrafts are probable further increasing
localized moisture flux and rainfall production efficiency.
Localized rates in excess of 1.5"/hr are possible but like prior
days, cell motions will be quicker and residency will be limited
to a sub-hourly periods but a quick .5-1" still could pose
localized flash flooding concerns given recent tracks of heavy
rainfall (broad 1-2+") totals over the prior days.

While eastward propagation of the south to north bands of
thunderstorms will be quicker than prior days; some repeating is
possible and spots up to 2" by 00z may be expected. These widely
scattered incidents obviously will pose the greatest potential for
flash flooding conditions. The overall coverage of thunderstorms
will be great enough to have above average confidence in likely
incidents of flash flooding through this afternoon, though
incidents are equally likely to widely spread throughout the area
of concern and locally focused in nature. Impacts in slot canyons,
burn scars and urban settings would be greatest.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!46KexDNITs3NkvpIYrsKMEP_PFFqpJmH5PN5rhIhjpCZ0SeeamqeVxI9NN-BSoZ84k2XUUB6a3hCZObJKIzAK_5_Cqk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39301166 39010946 37550726 35670753 33770875
32351006 33141131 33591250 35471271 36971365
37991387 38971331
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 22, 2026 19:56:26

AWUS01 KWNH 221956
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-230200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1514
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Arizona..Northwest New Mexico...Southern Colorado...Far Southeast Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 222000Z - 230200Z

SUMMARY...Favorable southwesterly flow regime with sub-tropical
moisture supporting the development of multiple south to north
convective lines this evening. Slow eastward propagation and
potential overlap/repeating near the AZ/NM line may support spots
of 2"+ totals though each cell may be capable of quick .5-1"
sub-hourly total resulting in broad area of potential localized
flash flooding incidents.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible imagery shows an
increasingly solid multi-celluar convective complex with some
developing bowing segments from NE Rio Arriba to E McKiney to the
NE Catron/Central Cibola county line with a few developing TCu
through the Mogollon Mountains in western NM. Stronger
southeasterly flow along the flanking portion of the line at
10-15ks is advecting moderate mid-50s Tds and steadily increasing
unstable air as temperature start to rise to the low 80s
supporting increasing SBCAPEs in the 2000+ J/kg range along the
flanking line slowly reducing toward 500-1000 J/kg along the
central CO/NM line. This will support moisture flux convergence
with forward propagation may limit residency to support sub-hourly
.5-1" totals. This may result in localized flash flooding for the
most prone locations, but at best will saturate the upper soil
profile for later convective activity.

Upstream in the wake of the prior line, sub-tropical moisture axis
has shifted eastward into the eastern third of AZ with a solid
wind shift noted from surface across the Sun Valley toward Tuscon
Metro area further increasing moisture flux convergence with the
secondary band. Instability axis is also starting to align with
the q-axis with MLCAPEs reaching 2000 J/kg in SE AZ slowly
reducing to 1000 J/kg further north into the San Francisco and
Colorado Plateaus of E AZ. Total Pwats of 1.0 to 1.4" (in lower
terrain) remain in the 99th percentile and about 4 standard
anomalies from normal. Combined with the very strong divergence
aloft on the eastern side of the 90-100kt 3H jet allows for strong
convective response over the next few hours. This has begun
across north-central AZ toward the Mogollon Rim with a slowly
filling convective line; while convective initiation is starting
to occur across E Gila/Pinal counties starting to reach NW Graham
county.

Given thermodynamic and even dynamic parameters in place, this
should support strong instantaneous rates in excess of 2"/hr.
However, like most convection this week, cell motions will likely
be greater than 30-40kts, limiting residency and resulting in
sub-hourly totals of 0.5-1". Cell motions from south to north
generally parallel to the convective line may still may allow for
some short-term repeating/training given cell motion is more
though eastward propagation due to approaching height-falls,
should limit this to an hour or so. As such, a spot or two of 2"
remains plausible. Additionally, this second line may eventually
overlap with areas already having 1" from the prior line this
afternoon as the second line approaches the AZ/NM line. As such,
incidents of flash flooding are likely, though will be more widely
scattered within the overall MPD area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Rg2ls-aMfqiGGSxJDB43W3Lyo7EgMyWHcsiQJ8vlAOFRC_Ubg_Qe8uW4ltzB1TXZ9Cp5svmfjG4gg1AOduLzg4wQXM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38390694 37560585 37020465 35590562 34690668
33870740 32100911 32161050 33761068 34981165
36501057 37990882
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 22, 2026 21:19:52

AWUS01 KWNH 222119
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-230317-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1515
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
517 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Nevada, Northwest Arizona, and Southwest
Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222117Z - 230317Z

Summary...Continued threat of heavy rainfall across northwest
Azizona into southwest Utah and southeastern Nevada as scattered
thunderstorms move over the area from the south. Rainfall rates
between 0.5-1"/hr are plausible leading to potential isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The threat across the canyon areas of UT and AZ will
continue for at least another 4-6 hours before we finally start
scaling back on the potential with the upper level evolution to
the west finally pushing the deep moisture advection regime
further downstream. The current radar/sat composite indicate
another round of convective development within the terrain focused
across northwest AZ, sliding north into southwestern UT within the
mean southerly flow situated on the eastern periphery of the upper
level circulation. Mid-level heights continue to prog a broad
diffluent axis right over the northern half of AZ into the Four
Corners with the western periphery of the deep layer moisture and
jet dynamics still situated over the sensitive canyon regions in
each state. This area has already seen a plethora of rainfall and
subsequent flash flood warnings the past 24-36 hours, so antcedent
conditions remain favorable for flood prospects through the early
evening time frame.

Latest HRRR/RRFS combo indicate this being the last prominent
convective burst in the setup with ongoing rainfall producing
rates upwards of 0.5-0.75"/hr in the strongest cells as given by
radar estimates. This correlates to the potential for at least
isolated to widely scattered flash flood prospects, especially in
those slot canyon areas focused around Zion and Bryce Canyon
National Parks. Expectation is for additional rainfall of up to
1", locally higher with the final convective burst leading to
multi-day totals eclipsing 2" for many across the canyon areas
in-of NV/AZ.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4sGVzlQ2YS3aPAoqYoOuhOu9uOH-ZRH_nX0SKTrfawA-Ja6WiyvZHYjKdvH1CSqUaTDHY8eoEj0BgXSJ6aBIx9QDxsk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39331321 39191249 38581171 37651165 36951201
36341242 35841278 35661337 35941455 36541499
37341534 38271546 38831508 39251417
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 23, 2026 01:54:28

AWUS01 KWNH 230154
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-230745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1517
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
953 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Northern AZ...Central and Southern UT...Southwest
CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230153Z - 230745Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may foster some
additional flash flooding concerns tonight.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W WV suite shows a strong upper
trough/closed low over the Southwest U.S. gradually advancing
eastward. Satellite imagery shows the energy taking on a negative
tilt, and this enhanced forcing/divergence aloft associated with
the height falls along with steepening mid-level lapse rates will
continue to favor additional areas of scattered showers and
thunderstorms going through the overnight hours.

MUCAPE values are locally still over 500 J/kg, and there are still
some areas of favorable low to mid-level moisture convergence
which coupled with orographic ascent over the higher terrain
should support the convective threat lingering along with locally
heavy rainfall rates.

The latest radar shows some of the stronger and more organized
cells over areas of far northern AZ and into southern UT. Drier
mid-level air arriving across the region will tend to mitigate the
rainfall rates a bit, but some rainfall rates with the stronger
storms may still reach as high as 1 to 1.5 inches/hour.

Localized cell-training will remain possible, and this may yield
some additional storm totals of up to 2 inches. This may result in
areas of additional flash flooding, with the slot-canyon regions
and burn scar locations most susceptible to seeing these potential
flash flooding impacts. Some of the normally dry washes may also
see potential for runoff concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6xVTbyXMnHczjWBYhFZ9j1XpBN0HcTB3RXJB5SlZ6UthoRs9ZzSr45WlNiLD2aP_XsgP_iC1j2XumALyXklYZ-L_yKk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40051093 39840951 39020827 37970784 37220854
36140944 34531021 34281115 34921215 36621266
37941269 39301222
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 23, 2026 01:24:30

AWUS01 KWNH 230124
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-230715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1516
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
922 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern AZ...Southern CO...Western and Central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 230122Z - 230715Z

SUMMARY...Bands of locally well-organized showers and
thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours across
portions of eastern AZ, southern CO and through western and
central NM. Additional areas of flash flooding are likely, and
locally significant impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows a
vigorous deep layer trough and associated closed low continuing to
pivot gradually across the Southwest U.S. This energy continues to
support bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms across areas of
eastern AZ, southern CO and the western third of NM as deep layer ascent/forcing associated with DPVA interacts with a corridor of
strong low to mid-level moisture convergence/transport and a nose
of modest instability.

Strong deep layer southerly flow is fostering 850/700 mb moisture
flux anomalies out ahead of a frontal zone of 3 to 5 standard
deviations above normal. MUCAPE values are on the order of 500 to
1000 J/kg, and with the enhanced forcing aloft, there will likely
continue to be bands of rather well-organized convection and
especially with as much as 30 to 50 kts of effective bulk shear
fostering organized convective structures.

Some of the coldest cloud tops are over northwest NM right now
with radar confirming multiple organized bands of convection with
some occasional cell-training concerns. Rainfall rates with the
activity are locally as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour, and with the
cell-training concerns and potential for orographic enhancement
over areas of higher terrain, some additional rainfall amounts
over the next several hours may reach as high as 2 to 3+ inches.

This is consistent with the multi-model hires consensus, and these
rains are likely to foster additional areas of flash flooding.
Some locally significant impacts will be possible, and especially
near any burn scar locations, and within any slot/box canyons and
near the normally dry washes.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!51eHQCy8asPU8AndtcVRtBc6y4HkRmfgcTqjRQdQsqHKUl7K02hFXzkOFOEjfc2KsRoX_PkKoBN87fRjUoM7LqkyoyI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38100678 38040551 37220489 35760542 34440622
33300674 32490722 32030794 31780871 31870939
32271009 33001029 34991002 36420928 37420835
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 23, 2026 19:34:48

AWUS01 KWNH 231934
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240131-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1518
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Areas affected...much of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and far
west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231931Z - 240131Z

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are migrating
quickly through the discussion area while producing areas of
0.2-0.4 inch/hr rain rates on a spotty basis. The coverage of
heavy rainfall should increase over sensitive ground conditions
through the afternoon, posing a flood/flash flood risk.

Discussion...Scattered convection was gradually increasing amid a warm-advection axis from southwestern NM into south-central CO
recently. The convection was embedded in appreciable mean flow,
resulting in 30-40 kt cell motions amid an environment
characterized by 0.5-1 inch PW and 1500 J/kg SBCAPE.
MRMS-estimated rain rates of 0.2-0.4 inch/hr were noted across
north-central NM. While these rates are relatively modest, areas
that are already experiencing impactful flooding in NM could
experience another quick 0.5 inch of rain in the short term. This
rainfall could exacerbate ongoing flood conditions.

Over time, continued surface heating and the approach of a
mid-level shortwave trough near the CA/AZ border region will
provide additional ascent/instability for more showers and
thunderstorms to form. The cells may repeat or locally train in a
few areas, resulting in additional rainfall totals of 0.5 inch or
more occurring in locally sensitive areas and burn scars.
High-resolution guidance is in agreement that this scenario will
persist for several hours - perhaps beyond 01Z/7p mountain time.
Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible during this
timeframe.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7T514p2x6LEf51OC-UetBuGGKf5asKC4nIfohQmmxYVx7Y-PvyoPndkMQS9PX4GcrnwaY-LW8FaC5FAzii0CEcwO6ZM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38780644 38360503 37530418 36180394 34440435
33320499 32210532 31350573 31300604 31680644
31840668 31710815 31320824 31520897 33070886
35150873 36760860 37890857 38690786
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 24, 2026 00:48:56

AWUS01 KWNH 240048
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1519
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
847 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Areas affected...Far Southern CO...Much of NM and Far Western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240047Z - 240645Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
locally high rainfall rates are expected to result in areas of
flash flooding going into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
expanding and cooling convective tops across sizable areas of
central through southern NM and down into far western TX. The
activity continues to organize out ahead of a slow-moving frontal
zone and and a large deep layer trough that is only gradually
ejecting eastward across the Western U.S.

Modest ejecting shortwave energy lifting out of the base of the
upper trough will cross through central and southern NM over the
next few hours while interacting with the nose of moderate
instability characterized by MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg.
This coupled with pockets of relatively strong low-level moisture
convergence and stronger kinematics aloft with as much as 30 to
40+ kts of effective bulk shear should tend to favor areas of
convective organization continuing through the evening hours.

PWs across the region are running as high as 1.5 to 2 standard
deviations above normal, and this combined with the instability
and cell-organization should tend to yield heavy rainfall rates
capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger
convective cores.

Some additional pockets of 2 to 2.5 inches of rain will be
possible where any brief cell-training occurs, and also near areas
of higher terrain. Some of the latest hires model CAMs target the
Sacramento Mountains over the next couple of hours with some of
these heavier totals. These rains in general across the region are
likely to foster areas of flash flooding through this evening, and
some of the more sensitive burn scar locations will be at
particular risk for flash flooding and debris flow activity. The
normally dry washes will also see an elevated risk for runoff
concerns as these relatively organized bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms cross the region.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!72PZt1TLfKjG8rMuIPOn-gIT5G3DDm5f4H9KE5RJrmD5iQVn7LApW6bnTVWp22Dh43zTjZKOTh7DGj5MYrTrWiA2-jA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37400437 37240351 36430311 35100323 32710362
31790394 30940493 30890647 31600737 32310770
33500773 34070765 34600753 35730712 36640636
37210534
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 24, 2026 14:24:12

AWUS01 KWNH 241424
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-242022-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1520
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1023 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of New Mexico/Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241422Z - 242022Z

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of a quick
0.5 inch of rain could exacerbate ongoing flooding issues across
New Mexico through 2030Z/230p Mountain Daylight Time.

Discussion...Scattered convection was deepening/expanding in
coverage primarily across west-central portions of NM in the past
hour or so. The convection is being aided by ascent from an upper
low over the Lower CO River Valley along with steep mid-level
lapse rates (~7.5C/km). While storm motions are relatively quick
(around 30-40 knots), the orientation of convection, mid-level
instability, and 0.5-0.6 inch PW values are all favoring local
training and local rain rates of 0.5 inch/hr at times especially
across Cibola County.

With time, increasing insolation/destabilization will allow for
convection to expand in coverage, with additional areas of locally
heavy rainfall impacting sensitive ground conditions across the
state that are already experiencing significant flooding from
prior rainfall. Even a quick 0.5-1 inch of rainfall could worsen
ongoing impacts or create new instances of flash flooding. These
conditions are likely to continue through 2030Z this afternoon as
synoptic forcing favoring convective development will change very
little today.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_WwyRmCkMCEbca3xy0TX1T1uDeyS3L-AB_05sqOSyeVEkcDHEpoox0vO--Ln7ZdbjG0OcTeQZ8qxMmnV0BQ-n--cg30$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38470753 38340579 37710502 36480467 35310471
34120505 33350560 32940679 33160785 33760879
36050894 38170879
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 24, 2026 20:31:54

AWUS01 KWNH 242031
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250229-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1521
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and
far west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242029Z - 250229Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will continue across the
discussion area through at least 02Z/8p Mountain Daylight Time.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area -- especially from west-central NM into southern/southwestern
CO. Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts scattered convection that
has organized into a couple of bands of training convection
especially across Cibola County and vicinity, with other scattered
cells moving quickly north at 30-40 knots. The cells remain in an
unstable environment, with cool air aloft atop warming surface
conditions contributing to approx. 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 0.5-0.6
inch PW, supporting locally heavy rainfall. Spots of rain rates
exceeding 0.5 inch/hr have been estimated per MRMS, and these
rates will continue to occur across areas that have been
excessively wet the past few days, with significant ongoing
riverine flooding in a few areas. Flood/flash flood potential
will continue for several more hours in these areas (through at
least 02Z).

Farther south and east, surface warming/destabilization has
enabled convection to develop and persist across central New
Mexico (northeast of ABQ), while additional towering cumulus has
been noted on visible satellite south of EPZ. Deep southerly flow
aloft will enable the convection to migrate northward, while
ascent associated with the upper low over Arizona and a subtle
upslope component to low-level flow across the NM Plains will
enable a gradually increase in convective coverage in these areas
through the remainder of the afternoon. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain
rates are expected especially near training cells. Flash flood
potential will increase in these areas (central/eastern NM
southward through far west Texas) through the afternoon and early
evening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9cjTneZ5oYl0OCFlV1FKnE8eMziAgmzJTZ0C8RiqBcdC91PZODcvzER-FCLQflHyOoaTYu9RF9UEnB-PDAbBBL868D4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38380754 38170599 37150472 35440422 32640412
31390463 31170561 31540637 32110666 32870747
33390869 34470888 36290883 37510867
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, October 25, 2026 02:26:44

AWUS01 KWNH 250226
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250825-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1522
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1025 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Areas affected...Much of NM...Far Western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250225Z - 250825Z

SUMMARY...Bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
into the overnight hours. Additional areas of flash flooding will
continue to be possible, and especially around the more sensitive
burn scar and dry wash locations.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV satellite imagery shows a deep layer upper
trough and associated closed low over the broader Southwest U.S.
continuing to very slowly move off to the east. Stronger dynamics aloft/divergent flow ahead of these height falls interacting with
a channel of moist/unstable air lifting north across the southern
High Plains and into the southern Rockies will continue to
facilitate bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms going into the
overnight hours.

MUCAPE values this evening remain elevated ahead of a
quasi-stationary front with values across central/southern NM and
far western TX as high as high 1000 to 1500 J/kg. This instability
combined with rather strong low-level moisture convergence and
deeper layer shear should favor some persistence of relatively
well-organized bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Rainfall rates with the more organized convective cells will still
continue to be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour. Locally
slow cell-motions and some periodic cases of cell-training may
still foster some additional rainfall totals of 2 to 2.5 inches.
This is consistent with the latest multi-model hires CAM consensus.

These additional rains may foster some additional areas of flash
flooding over the next several hours. The greatest potential for
impacts will continue to be across the more sensitive burn scar
locations and around the normally dry washes, but in some cases
the streamflows are already elevated, so the additional rains will
only encourage a persistence of some ongoing runoff problems.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_gqUDx3pVGZe4aoOqiqjwgVJ1-2DNc3goBGB9xYdArRkPZDw3hECZGgSgatsFCnPUdSeqBebP99D4BBGMVQFvkbcQcM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37130470 36960383 36730347 35830310 34460316
32840344 31660381 30800440 30470525 30750608
31590679 33180696 34720666 36100653 36950579
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, October 25, 2026 20:00:36

AWUS01 KWNH 252000
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-260158-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1523
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of New Mexico and far west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251958Z - 260158Z

Summary...Instances of flash flooding are possible through at
least 02Z/8p Mountain Daylight Time.

Discussion...Over the past half hour or so, convection has shown
an uptick in coverage and organization across central New Mexico.
The uptick was related to 1) surface-based destabilization due to
surface heating (around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE) and 2) ascent tied to a
mid-level shortwave trough entering western NM. Deep
south-southwesterly flow was oriented parallel to developing
convection, allowing for local training/repeating. Meanwhile,
cells just west of ABQ (Cibola/Bernadillo/Valencia Counties) were
moving across sensitive locales from recent excessive rainfall and
riverine flooding. A quick 0.5 inch of rainfall could exacerbate
any ongoing flooding concerns and prompt new flash flooding at
times as showers/storms drift northward through 02Z/8p.

Farther east (east of I-25), better availability of moisture
(0.5-1 inch PW values) support higher rain rates near training
convection. These rates could briefly approach local FFG
thresholds (around 0.75-1 inch/hr) and prompt flash flooding on an
isolated to scattered basis.

The overall regime supporting the aforementioned convective/flash
flood scenario will persist for several hours this afternoon as
low-level instability is maintained due to widespread areas of
sunshine. Additional training convection (and local 1 inch/hr
rain rates) are expected as far south as the TransPecos region and
far west Texas through 02Z this evening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!79LaJD0HIRVMlcXkhDMdG7ZfrMUn-TQWSa8LEoA0IAabq4ycBXaFSpSs_E1JCkbHq39eUV6EKYXJoy-KXKcuMin0nac$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36640593 36170385 35000304 33160323 31610361
31130412 31220515 31660599 32130663 33290724
34210808 34970829 36290772
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, October 26, 2026 02:16:32

AWUS01 KWNH 260216
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-260815-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1524
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1015 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern NM...Western TX and TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260215Z - 260815Z

SUMMARY...Locally expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will maintain a threat for flash flooding over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR/WV satellite imagery suite shows
some cooling convective tops across areas of central and eastern
NM and parts of far western TX as a deep layer trough and
associated closed low ejects gradually eastward across the region.

Stronger mid/upper-level forcing/ascent overspreading the region
will be interacting with a rather unstable airmass pooled across
especially south-central/southeast NM and far western TX in
conjunction with strong 850/700 mb moisture flux that continues to
surge north across the southern High Plains. Early evening MLCAPE
values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg are in place which combined with 30
to 40 kts of effective bulk shear and the height falls should help
support some cell-organization over the next few hours, with some
additional expansion of convective activity expected this evening.

The instability and moisture transport (850/700 mb moisture flux
anomalies of +2 to +4 sigma) will support areas of high rainfall
rates, and the multi-model hires CAMs support some 1 to 2
inch/hour rainfall rates with the stronger and more focused
thunderstorms. Some some spotty additional storm total amounts of
2 to 3 inches is not out of the question tonight. The area of
greatest concern for these heavier totals will tend to be across
areas of east-central NM and northeastward into the TX Panhandle
where some cell-training concerns will exist.

These additional rains will maintain a threat for flash flooding
over the next several hours as a result. The normally dry washes
and burn scar locations will again be at greatest risk for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6wlXq5Daz6SWwOMFf7KULt7s2GLn0nrwTsZS-VpaK5rcGE8uAq1CWQ7HO5xTpqm1i25Fw_Cj2o-MoqTqrQ55kPwYX1o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36580312 36430189 35660148 34620175 32940270
31750321 30900376 30600448 30510571 30930652
31260677 32260675 33760642 34960640 35880579
36410455
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 29, 2026 17:58:28

AWUS01 KWNH 291758
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-292355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1525
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
157 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Areas affected...southeastern NM into far western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291755Z - 292355Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of far western TX into southeastern NM, including the
Sacramento Mountains through the early evening. The expected rain
rates include peak hourly rainfall of 1.0 to 1.5 inches along with
15 minute rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50+ inches.

DISCUSSION...Precipitable water (PW) values have increased up to a
few tenths of an inch across southeastern NM and far western TX
compared to 24 hours ago via the Blended TPW imagery product but
more significant increases have occurred into portions of central
to southern TX as noted on all layers of the OSPO Advected LPW
product and the 12Z DRT sounding with a 0.6 to 0.7 inch increase
in PW since 12Z Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Day Cloud Phase RGB
imagery from 1730Z showed the early stages of cumulus development
along the higher terrain of southeastern NM among a mixture of
low, mid, and high level clouds within otherwise clear skies
supporting appreciable surface heating. SPC mesoanalysis data from
17Z showed instability was weak over southeastern NM and far
western TX with MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg in a few places,
surrounded by weaker values along with modest inhibition.

With continued daytime heating, MLCAPE is expected to rise into
the afternoon with recent RAP forecasts showing increasing
coverage of 500 to 1000+ J/kg through 21Z. As this occurs, widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with
the higher terrain of far western TX and the Sacramento Mountains
likely to see convective initiation over the next 1 to 2 hours.
Low level flow across the middle Rio Grande Valley into far
western TX and southeastern NM will maintain an influx of higher
low level moisture into the region while mean steering flow from
the south at 5-15 kt allows for repeating and brief training of
cells. Mid to upper level moisture will also continue to increase
ahead of upper troughing along the coast of California and Mexico.

The environment will support peak hourly rainfall of 1 to 1.5
inches along with embedded 15-minute rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50+
inches. Localized flash flooding will be possible with the
greatest threat across burn scars (most notably in the southern
Sacramento Mountains) as well as low water crossings and areas of
poor drainage throughout southeastern NM into far western TX.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6EnVFK--bDrS_uw8KHvECTDD3YTE49qw11NCKXxWRJBZcihOsOvCxGKv5aMpfjiN42mkc8vVwWQheH_06kmBwP8RL84$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35100612 34920511 34380481 33430454 32400413
31780348 31370320 30570340 30380414 30580483
31130573 32020683 32660708 33360692 34440645
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 29, 2026 19:58:36

AWUS01 KWNH 291958
FFGMPD
TXZ000-300155-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1526
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Areas affected...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291956Z - 300155Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding may develop across portions of
the Edwards Plateau into portions of southern TX through 02Z. Peak
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery as of 1930Z across central TX
showed largely stratiform rain extending from the middle Rio
Grande Valley into central TX, containing embedded cores of high
rainfall rates. Gauges and MRMS indicated 6-hour rainfall totals
(ending 19Z) of 1 to 2+ inches in and around Del Rio and near 1
inch from San Antonio and points northwest into the Balcones
Escarpment. Precipitable water values were anomalous for late
October from the Rio Grande into central TX represented by the
95th percentile or higher via CIRA's experimental ALPW for all
layers (surface to 300 mb) based on a 2013-2023 climatology.

VAD wind plots showed 850 mb winds of 15-25 kt, with a favorable
southerly component into the Edwards Plateau. Southwesterly flow
seen on water vapor imagery contained embedded, meso-beta scale
vorticity maxima advancing northeastward ahead of mean troughing
centered over the Baja Peninsula. One such (elongated) vorticity
max was located ~50-100 miles southeast of Big Bend National Park,
tracking northeastward. This feature should combine with peak
heating and smaller scale embedded vorticity maxima to allow for
an increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage over portions of south
TX, likely between the Rio Grande and I-35, south of San Antonio.
MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg combined with the high moisture and axes
of low level convergence are expected to support repeating and
training of heavy rain cores capable of hourly rainfall between
1-2 inches. While FFG values are high across this region of TX,
localized totals of 3 to 5 inches may occur through 02Z which
could lead to isolated areas of flash flooding.

Farther north (generally north of the Balcones Escarpment),
instability is likely to remain weak (<500 J/kg) due to abundant
cloud cover through the rest of the afternoon. However, given
rainfall that has already occurred combined with additional
rainfall totals of 1-2 inches (occasional hourly values of 0.5 to
1.0 inches) through 02Z, isolated flash flooding may occur across
urban areas or areas of sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7p6sJlzPKzC1pP0_-7cpokYCqFQfDHEeifYHJh9O11eHRCm21wuWzBcEj-QOipUYiiMMsY_DPmofWOa-kcNaDFJePEw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31370059 31319975 30739893 29529847 28759882
27699908 27499990 28110026 28950078 29400128
29520181 29680243 30060270 30700255 31110171
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 30, 2026 00:23:20

AWUS01 KWNH 300022
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-300610-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1527
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico and Far West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300020Z - 300610Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of far western Texas into southeastern New Mexico
including the Sacramento Mountains through the evening. The
expected rain rates include peak hourly rainfall of 1.0 to 1.5
inches along with 15 minute rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50+ inches.

DISCUSSION...Precipitable water (PW) values have continued to
increased over southeast New Mexico during the afternoon in a
region of moisture flux convergence. The icreasing pool of
moisture has resulted in mixed layer CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J
per kg with isolated values approaching 1500 J per kg near the
international border. The higher values continue to be surrounded
by weaker values along with modest inhibition.

This has allowed widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms to
develop, with the higher terrain of far western TX and the
Sacramento Mountains tending to help focus the activity. The low
level flow across the middle Rio Grande Valley into far western TX
and southeastern NM will maintain activity through much of the
evening by supplying additional moisture and instability into the
region while mean steering flow from the south at 5-15 kt allows
for repeating and brief training of cells. Mid to upper level
moisture will also continue to increase ahead of upper troughing
along the coast of California and Mexico.

The environment will support peak hourly rainfall of 1 to 1.5
inches along with embedded 15-minute rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50+
inches. Localized flash flooding will be possible with the
greatest threat across burn scars (most notably in the southern
Sacramento Mountains) as well as low water crossings and areas of
poor drainage throughout southeastern NM into far western TX.

Bann

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6BGUhe02z3m07VmMF3vWF3MxmN16vSCdtBQ581z7V3wGGSyo6owAD4pgJFHNNdW-La8WT6K3YMFBbCiKMKVhBdJ_0zw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35040331 33660287 33150301 31950330 31290426
31890641 31760864 32960883 33170679 33480584
34390498 34890420
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 30, 2026 03:07:54

AWUS01 KWNH 300307
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300906-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1528
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1106 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Areas affected...northern/northeastern Kansas, far southeastern
Nebraska, far northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300306Z - 300906Z

Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms could produce local 2 inch/hr
rain rates across the discussion area tonight. Isolated/spotty
instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...In the past hour or so, a band of strong convection
has materialized generally along an axis from near Hays to near
Marysville and the KS/NE border near Falls City, NE. This
convection is elevated and rooted along a stationary front along
the same axis. Meanwhile, 1.3 inch PW values and 1500 J/kg MUCAPE
was supporting locally heavy rainfall with deep convective
updrafts, while modest wind fields aloft (around 20-25 knots --
parallel to the aforementioned stationary front) was enabling
slow-movement of those cells and rain rates exceeding 1.5 inch/hr
at spots (per MRMS). These rates were falling on ground
conditions characterized by approx 2 inch/hr FFG thresholds,
suggestive of isolated flash flood potential in the near term.

Observations/guidance both suggest that these storms will continue
to linger and move slowly through the next 4-6 hours. Modest
upscale growth/propagation may enable development eastward toward
more of northwestern MO over time. Local rain rates of 1.5-2
inch/hr can be expected where convection is most persistent, and
local 3 inch totals cannot be ruled out. Isolated instances of
flash flooding are possible in this scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7pyX2LD7hNCo9tvRucn3T7mjkg22Gu0SbjaIBqVJWVt_ddZSg93kYkPUwq0UUVE7bvo022JMFpAGeTG79sS9CBuHI6w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 40729561 40689361 40269314 39699311 39279459
39049748 39619904 40339776
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 30, 2026 08:56:14

AWUS01 KWNH 300855
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-301254-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1529
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
454 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Kansas, northern Missouri, far
southeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300854Z - 301254Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential continues for a few more
hours (through 11-12Z/7a central).

Discussion...Earlier convection that fired across far northeastern
Kansas has now evolved into a mix of cells and clusters across the
discussion area. Some local backbuilding has been noted, which
isn't surprising given southwesterly low-level jet oriented
favorably for sustained convergence across the region.
Instability profiles continue to support occasional strong
updrafts (1000 J/kg MUCAPE), while 1.3 inch PW continues to
support spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates. Isolated spots of 2
inch/hr rain rates (threatening FFG) cannot be ruled out as
convection persists this morning especially near
backbuilding/training. Eventually, the veering and weakening
low-level jet will lessen low-level convergence enough to cause
convection to weaken, though this process will take a few hours to
unfold. Isolated instances of flash flooding remain possible
through 12Z/7a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9Y72m_q0Cn2RHmq7oVmqZFL6NntMrRsTFZhTQwLUeCh1AO4RgK9yIsyejA79LIE_A_kJDACHm5X-rQu4hM26EwpZeyk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40859534 40799322 40539245 39909244 39299306
39049476 39529634 40689652
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 30, 2026 09:17:36

AWUS01 KWNH 300917
FFGMPD
AZZ000-301315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1530
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
516 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300915Z - 301315Z

Summary...One or two instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled
out as convection intensifies between Phoenix and Tucson and
drifts northward.

Discussion...Scattered convection was deepening along the I-10
corridor between Phoenix and Tucson over the past hour. The cells
are responding to 1) increasing low-level convergence on the
northeastern fringe of a strengthening 850mb jet over the far
northern Gulf of California and 2) approaching mid-level shortwave
troughs across southern CA and vicinity. Cells were embedded
within 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and near 1 inch PW within the
pre-convective airmass, supporting locally heavy rainfall in a few
spots. Despite appreciable storm motions (around 15-20 knots),
MRMS estimates of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr were noted beneath the evolving
activity. These rates may be enough for an isolated instance or
two of flash flooding in the short term, especially near any burn
scars and/or low-lying areas.

While the duration of this activity is a bit uncertain, SPC
Mesoanalyses indicate subtle, yet continued strengthening of
low-level flow into the Lower Colorado River Valley over the next
2-4 hours that could help to maintain a risk of scattered
thunderstorms. The orientation of the storms may also support
local training at times that could also increase rain rates in
spots. Flash flood potential exists with this activity, though a
greater threat may unfold later as more surface-based
destabilization and mid-level forcing approach the region through
the late morning hours.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ItzEimGq3DK8RjRAvvYXL268-X0GLa6PtfKbUZJLXLpJeKLyIoAn1CUFkxOzIbcVpLGTiM8MQ8_bdPj33GEM1FPwX8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35131280 34941161 33821042 32540959 31480982
31581097 32211198 33451253
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 30, 2026 15:39:20

AWUS01 KWNH 301538
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-302015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1531
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1137 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Areas affected...Lower Colorado River Valley into central AZ and
southwestern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301537Z - 302015Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding may occur across portions of
the Colorado River Valley into central AZ and southwestern UT
through 20Z. Peak hourly rainfall values over 1 inch are expected
within axes of repeating or training of heavy rain.

Discussion...15Z radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms over
southern NV into southwestern UT and western AZ, located ahead of
a well-defined mid to upper-level trough advancing eastward into
southern CA as seen on water vapor imagery. A zonally oriented
upper level jet max was located just south of the upper trough
over the eastern Pacific with 130 kt sampled by GOES West DMVs.
Despite the morning time frame, instability via the 12Z VEF
sounding and 15Z SPC mesoanalysis showed a mixture of ML and MU
CAPE ranging from 500 to 1000+ J/kg (highest over southwestern
AZ). Regarding moisture, OSPO ALPW imagery showed the northward
moisture transport from the surface to 700 mb via 25-35 kt of
flow, aligned with the ongoing axis of storms over the Southwest.
Precipitable water values of about 1 inch in southern NV to 1.3
inches in southwestern/south-central AZ were estimated via the
latest GPS observations, representing standardized anomalies of 2
to 4.

Ascent ahead of the advancing upper trough will continue to
combine with the low level axis of moisture transport to maintain
thunderstorms through the day. RAP guidance shows some weakening
of the 850-700 mb flow into the afternoon but also instability
expanding with some degree of daytime heating through the cloud
cover. Southerly steering flow into the Mogollon Rim is expected
to provide one focus for heavier rainfall via orographic lift
through the mid-afternoon hours while the ongoing axis of storms
slowly advances east. Increasing upper level divergence and
diffluence are expected within the left exit region of the upper
level jet max into the lower CO River Valley into central AZ which
should aid broader scale lift. Instability will drop off with
northern extent but remain sufficient when combined with the upper
forcing and unidirectional flow to support repeating and training
of heavy rain into portions of southern NV and southwestern UT,
with instability lingering beyond 20Z. Peak hourly rainfall of 1
to 1.5 inches will be possible within the better zone of
instability across central to southern AZ, while peak hourly
values of 0.5 to 1.0 inches are expected to the north. High
sub-hourly rainfall values will help drive the flash flood threat
with burn scars and areas of sensitive terrain at most risk of
impacts.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9Ma7yA0UkP_K_qKkEiUK1UMnLSCoWMEYd3ZvVxEjGEbbr_Ir1t6_J8a2vewikf3QlreiUyARMkDp5Bk_54m7XCyryOs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39031356 38951241 36941184 35071120 34011092
33061119 32751186 32751317 33291397 34861496
35751527 37081516
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 30, 2026 19:54:08

AWUS01 KWNH 301951
FFGMPD
AZZ000-310145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1532
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Areas affected...central to southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301948Z - 310145Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be possible across portions
of central to eastern/southeastern AZ over the next 6 hours.
Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected within stronger rain
cores that repeat/train.

Discussion...1920Z radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms
along the Mogollon Rim in central AZ along with more recent
development toward the south-southeast into portions of southern
Gila and Pinal counties. This area of AZ was favorably positioned
ahead of a negatively tilted mid to upper-level trough approaching
the lower CO Valley and the divergent/diffluent left-exit region
of a 130-140 kt upper level jet max nearing the northern Baja
Peninsula. A region of MLCAPE containing 500-1500 J/kg was
estimated to be in place from the NV/CA/AZ junction into
south-central AZ via 19Z SPC mesoanalysis data, but instability
quickly dropped off into eastern to northeastern AZ.

There could be some minor increases in instability over
southeastern AZ, but cloud cover should limit the magnitude of
instability compared to what is already in place farther west.
However, as the mid to upper-level trough to the west continues to
advance to the east this afternoon, the potential for additional
thunderstorm development will exist across central to southeastern
AZ. Low level flow from the south to southwest will remain across southern/central AZ with a favorable trajectory from the existing
instability pool into the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains to the east with potential for repeating and brief
training for another few hours. In addition, the leading edge of
relatively drier air in the 850-700 mb layer was observed to be
advancing east across southwestern AZ on OSPO ALPW imagery and as
this feature reaches central AZ later this afternoon, additional
convective development may occur upstream across parts of central
to southeastern AZ. Peak hourly rainfall of 1.0-1.5 inches and
15-minute values locally exceeding 0.5 inches are expected which
may result in a few areas of flash flooding through 01Z.
Additional rainfall totals over the next 6 hours should generally
stay in the 1 to 2 inch range.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!98ALjF9ym-dKlNzOtiz4SAH3kFjDEN06Lt5zXuVLO1iTh5ZW3c_zF43wZCNCPRvrPMruKVV12_maB-6RXL_nDEGns2g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34571107 34301015 33900957 33300937 32570926
31600937 31071022 31101085 31461174 32291202
33071256 33351285 34101289 34381251 34541195
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 30, 2026 20:49:50

AWUS01 KWNH 302049
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-310245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1533
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
448 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Areas affected...Lower Colorado River Valley into southwestern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302047Z - 310245Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will remain possible
across southern Nevada into adjacent areas of southwestern UT,
northwestern AZ and southeastern CA through ~03Z. High short term
rain rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes will be possible
with storm totals of 1 to 2 inches.

DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery over the past hour ending
2015Z have shown an increase in thunderstorm coverage from
southern NV into northwestern AZ and far eastern Riverside County
in southeastern CA. These cells were located underneath an upper
level trough with some degree of drier air moving over within the
upper levels. MLCAPE of 500 to 1000+ J/kg was estimated by the 20Z
SPC mesoanalysis from southern NV into the lower CO River Valley,
fueled by heating in the wake of thicker cloud cover advancing
downstream across the western UT/AZ border. Unidirectional
southwesterly flow in the LFC-EL layer has promoted training and
repeating of cells with observed 15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0
inches in Las Vegas and Henderson where precipitable water values
near 1 inch per recent GPS observations.

The reservoir of instability across southern NV into adjacent
portions of UT/AZ/CA is forecast to linger for at least another
3-6 hours with some waning of magnitude into the evening, but
remaining sufficient to support high short term rain rates for
several more hours. Destabilization downstream into southwestern
UT and portions of northwestern AZ remains uncertain, with the
highest rainfall rates possibly staying farther south over the
next few hours. The somewhat broad upper trough observed on water
vapor imagery across CA will continue the mean southwesterly flow
across the lower to middle CO River Valley well into the overnight
but the rainfall rates will be limited by the available
instability, which is expected to gradually diminish in the 00-03Z
time frame with the loss of surface heating. Therefore, while some
degree of convection should remain by 03Z, as well as a localized
flash flood threat, the threat is expected to reduce in coverage
beyond sunset.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Hi3VJ0H3S77G10Vw3F4hlXMNkr86h5PKMgc6QSIZOhvT_lhHjUfvsDvREOpVFtJswcQdRj7NJtdp8mqwYjdMPt2DdI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37761337 37631292 37331254 36541252 35461303
34201367 34421499 35591553 37041518 37741437
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 31, 2026 01:48:44

AWUS01 KWNH 310148
FFGMPD
AZZ000-310746-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1534
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
947 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Areas affected...central/eastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310146Z - 310746Z

Summary...Isolated/spotty flash flood potential continues across
the discussion area for a few more hours.

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to produce up to 1
inch/hr rain rates in a cluster very near Phoenix Metro as of
0135Z (per MRMS). The storms remain on the northern edge of a
pool of surface-based instability across much of the southern half
of AZ, with ascent resulting from 1) subtle orography with ~15kt
southerly 850mb flow impinging on central AZ terrain and 2)
mid-level troughing and embedded shortwaves approaching the area
from the Lower Colorado River Valley. Cells continue to remain
isolated, which could be tied to drying aloft to the west.
Nevertheless, more established cells are right-moving, locally backbuilding/merging, and remain supportive of 1 inch/hr rates at
times as they move east-northeastward. These rates are
approaching local FFG. Models/CAMS suggest that this potential
will continue on an isolated basis for several more hours before
nocturnal boundary layer cooling lessens instability and weakens
updraft strength. Isolated/spotty flash flood threat will
continue for a few more hours -- perhaps through 06Z/10p Mountain
Time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7W2_lQ7nMKcr7xUbT9CkN7hpifs32toK5FAzCZ96Wm1l8LWhH-1dRrBS9_uHTuBX1GwSOYCeG4uLAwrA9sFPxAE5Dzs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35181111 34830995 33930921 32840933 32271058
32641230 33411323 34611319 35121231
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 00:54:58

AWUS01 KWNH 010054
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-010653-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1535
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
853 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010053Z - 010653Z

Summary...Slow-moving cells are capable of 2.5 inch/hr rain rates
at times, which could cause instances of flash flooding in urban
and/or sensitive locales.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts slow-moving
thunderstorms across Washington Parish/Pearl River County and St.
Charles Parish. Other weaker showers were increasing in coverage
as welll. The cells were in an abundantly moist environment
(1.5-1.9 inch PW, 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), supporting deep updrafts with
efficient rainfall rates. Furthermore, the cells were in an
environment with weak kinematics, but veering flow with height
supporting marginal supercell structures with very slow/nearly
stationary movement. Flow aloft at 300mb supports appreciable
storm ventilation, while difluence at 300mb was also supporting
subtle ascent within this regime to continue to support ongoing
convective activity. Spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates have
materialized on an isolated basis in this regime, and with
convective coverage increasing, a few more areas of high rain
rates could materialize over the next 2-4 hours.

FFG thresholds in most areas are generally well above 3 inch/hr.
This suggests that any flash flood risk will likely be tied to 1)
stationary cells that persist for more than one hour and/or 2)
urban/sensitive locales that contain hydrophobic surfaces/poor
drainage. The duration of this risk is a bit in question, though
models suggest potential for convection to persist through
05Z/midnight central or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-E6Rr72Y7CqWtXUNzE0dCLJt-gbaGCLwG9wbYKJasnTBcm0vpouK_0Yfq90eyuyJ_BsJnriRYLPbYU36FvT2NsudFdg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31729050 31198901 30408845 29328889 29129062
29699281 30489312 31119289 31499207
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 01:33:58

AWUS01 KWNH 010133
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-010732-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1536
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
932 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Areas affected...Arizona and southern Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010132Z - 010732Z

Summary...Several areas of 1-2 inch rainfall totals are expected
over the next several hours (through 0730Z/130a Mountain Time). A
few instances of flash flooding may result.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite and objective analyses depict
an expansion in convective coverage across AZ/southern NV in
response to a landfalling atmospheric river over northern Baja
California. Embedded within this broader shield of precipitation
are isolated to scattered convective elements near Las Vegas
Metro, far western AZ, and between Phoenix and Tucson. The storms
are in a sufficiently moist environment for rain rates of at least
0.5 inch/hr, which could activate excessive runoff near/over burn
scars, low spots, and urban areas. PW values of 1-1.7 (highest
with southward extent) supports these rain rates despite
appreciable (20-30 kt) storm motions, and surface-based CAPE
values around 250-500 J/kg are also supporting the activity.

Over time, widespread precipitation will result in cooling surface
temperatures and lessening surface-based instability. Meanwhile,
strengthening 850-700 southwesterly flow will impinge favorably on
central AZ terrain (Mogollon Rim) to support prolonged moderate to
heavy rainfall and areas of flooding/flash flooding. The duration
of the precipitation lends concern for considerable impacts. The
risk will persist through 0730Z and beyond.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5K3-iytUoN1kkdkd-e2DP8ftJtqzO9CpMWuxToxN3KWbs8UOPYdPsdxAk0JH5b83QBNbrRCc49T2zn5kEIjFUilxyu0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37041523 36621388 35901273 35321196 34881060
34460976 33470945 32320978 31791043 31831221
32731469 34551454 36071545
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 04:20:52

AWUS01 KWNH 010420
FFGMPD
CAZ000-011019-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1537
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1219 AM EDT Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010419Z - 011019Z

Summary...Very localized instances of heavy rainfall could result
in a quick 1-1.5 inches of rainfall that causes excessive
runoff/flash flooding through 10Z.

Discussion...The amplification of a longwave trough off the
northwestern California coast is spreading widespread, but mostly
light precipitation across the discussion area. In the last hour
or so, a few embedded, yet slow-moving convective elements have
developed along the immediate coast. This development is likely
tied to 1) destabilization from cooling mid-levels associated with
the longwave trough and 2) subtle convergence along the coast
resulting in sustained updrafts. Local rain rates have peaked at
around 1 inch/hr per MRMS, which isn't surprising as low 60s F
dewpoints near the coast was supporting 1-1.4 inch PW values and
efficient rainfall processes. These trends should continue for
several hours as the northwestern CA trough continues to amplify
and spread colder air aloft, resulting instability. Weak onshore
flow will also support enough local convergence for convection to
persist even despite low-level veering expected through the night.
Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible through 10Z --
especially near urban areas and burn scars/sensitive terrain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7BB-wmYvMVpkVoUTgcF-vCpqN0eoYMvZKOT4OylEsuUJAGEjaNAuCV9s5sh-AWG5u7GhWYSekxoC7fjyc0_aTQ3OTIc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35352042 35121922 34671869 33991754 33661718
33161693 32721708 32851733 33261769 33651833
34021918 34342006 34462060 34812078 35252087
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 06:48:24

AWUS01 KWNH 010647
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-011200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1538
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of Louisiana and far western Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010646Z - 011200Z

Summary...Conditional, but potentially significant flash flood
potential continues.

Discussion...Scattered deep convection has persisted through the
night across central Louisiana - likely in response to ascent from
mid-level shortwave troughing approaching from the ArkLaTex and
sufficient buoyancy across the discussion area (1000+ J/kg
MLCAPE). While most storms have drifted northward amid light
southerly flow, storms that have managed to mature and become
right-moving have become nearly stationary while producing very
high rain rates (exceeding 3 inches/hr at times). This process
may be repeating locally just south of Alexandria, and point
forecast soundings continue to suggest that the environment
(abundant moisture, favorable kinematics, <10 kt right-moving
storm motions) could support prolific rainfall totals on a
localized basis where a cell or two becomes right-moving and
stalls. Any cell that can stall (persist over a local area for
more than an hour) will pose a risk of significant flash flooding
through 12Z this morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5bBP1_-RXGLo6r4z1RPuAQrf5WIdZfSWf2wFDbx4tcMH4EWl82sPtjtiKLeoy7lOazYNWnvPLPX2xlzz_wf-61aIeW4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32839173 32199112 30809139 29729222 30149317
31589311 32539283
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 07:44:44

AWUS01 KWNH 010744
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-011340-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1539
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010740Z - 011340Z

Summary...A landfalling atmospheric river will continue to spread
moderate to heavy rainfall over Arizona, prompting a flood/flash
flood risk.

Discussion...Over the past few hours, the landfalling atmospheric
river across the Desert Southwest has resulted in a dramatic
increase in low- to mid-level southwesterly flow into portions of
Arizona. Widespread precipitation (heavy at times) has resulted,
along with spots of 0.25-0.5 inch/hr rain rates at times. These
rain rates are expected to continue as flow remains oriented
perpendicular to the Mogollon Rim, enabling orographic ascent to
aid in local enhancement of rain rates. The ongoing scenario will
change little through 13Z, with heavy rainfall gradually filling tributaries/low-lying areas and prompting excessive runoff. Local
6-hr FFG thresholds should be exceeded in a few spots.
Flood/flash flood potential will continue through at least 13Z
this morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8KDxV6PwEdYWiakRvZo-nydo5XSWD2jcE0hEk32ZLHQsFcWMFbtpemw-c4_u5xofCFedi-bLxc1lfArR8SyRHkZB37M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36441361 36241259 35281148 34720991 34080930
33060920 31920987 31621101 32131265 32931439
35941430
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 13:55:54

AWUS01 KWNH 011355
FFGMPD
FLZ000-011645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1540
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011350Z - 011645Z

Summary...Localized hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches will linger
for up to another 2 to 3 hours across coastal portions of the FL
Panhandle from near Panama City to Apalachicola.

Discussion...A small area of showers/thunderstorms was observed on
KEVX radar imagery over Panama City, FL, slowly dropping south as
of 1330Z. Heavy rain with hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches has
been observed via area gauges resulting in storm total rainfall of
4 to 6+ inches over the past 3-5 hours in Bay County. The area of
heavy rain was located north of a remnant stationary front
positioned ESE to WNW in the northern Gulf with lower level
overrunning of the front within a very moist airmass. PW values of
1.8 to 2.0 inches have resulted in efficient warm rain processes
with freezing levels near 13 kft AGL. Aloft a sharp upper level
trough axis and associated jet max was located just upstream with
strongly divergent and diffluent flow aloft.

The focused cluster of heavy rain was associated with at least one
mesoscale circulation embedded within, which was slowly drifting
south and appears that it will move offshore within the next 30-60
minutes. However, low level winds feeding in from the southeast
may allow for localized heavy rain to continue and possibly impact
locations farther southeast down the coast toward Apalachicola.
Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches will continue to be possible
prior to the upper level trough axis shifting east while the jet
max weakens, likely allowing the flash flood threat to wane by
16Z-17Z, although the threat for Panama City appears that it will
end sooner.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5jslhmoxAAQPFfwNF-MmmcNaUZ40-tj8vzho49vSqKmJA4e1bsxyE6qr_gabHehaM28G-pi4V5Ij9AmNoTYS7UTVuCM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30518570 30378527 30138488 29898464 29578457
29358474 29278502 29478585 29878630 30358601
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 15:41:00

AWUS01 KWNH 011540
FFGMPD
AZZ000-012115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1541
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1039 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011537Z - 012115Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will be likely across
portions of central to southern AZ over the next 3-6 hours, some
of which could be locally significant. Peak hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches along with 15 minute rainfall exceeding 0.5 inches can be
expected at times.

DISCUSSION...As of 15Z, gauges across central AZ have shown
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches (locally higher) over the past 12 hours
with isolated hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches at times.
Strong low level southerly to southwesterly winds of 35-45 kt in
the 850-700 mb layer were focused into AZ, out ahead of an
elongated upper level trough over the western U.S., extending into
the eastern Pacific, just west of the northern Baja Peninsula. 15Z
SPC mesoanalysis data showed MLCAPE was limited just south of the
Mogollon Rim at 250 to 500+ J/kg and extensive cloud cover and
precipitation will likely limit much in the way of future
instability rises into the remainder of the morning/early
afternoon. However, moisture was highly anomalous with 1.2 to 1.9
inch PWs (3 to 5+ standardized anomalies for early November) and
mean southwesterly steering flow was supporting axes of heavy rain
with embedded thunderstorms at times.

Given this region has already received well above average rainfall
over the past 1 to 2 weeks (600+ percent of normal for many
areas), soils remain especially susceptible to runoff and areas of
flash flooding. The upper trough axis will continue a steady
eastward progression to west-central AZ through 21Z with areas of
heavy rain persisting ahead of the trough with embedded hourly
rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches with localized values in the 1 to 2
inch range. 15 minute rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches are also expected
on an isolated basis which will drive a rapid response at the
surface. Areas of flash flooding will be likely, some of which
could be locally significant, especially where high rain rates
overlap with urban locations, burn scars and other areas of
sensitive terrain. Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are
likely through 21Z across portions of AZ with a focus across the
upslope regions of the Mogollon Rim into portions of southeastern
AZ. The axis of heaviest rainfall will begin to shift into western
NM by ~21Z, but smaller pockets of heavy rain are likely to
continue beyond that time frame into central AZ.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5Ma_BeSG7yFp99-b-g4nkHSLWna3qWugzKjWdiSdRvm9_ru0C_lrht0U455UM6-QzUFUfuRQHXF7An8uFA-UVIcLFs8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35511264 35211086 34000921 32880905 32030944
31291034 31211121 31521232 32351276 32781362
33811421 34891400
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 16:50:12

AWUS01 KWNH 011649
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-012200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1542
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1148 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...Four Corners Region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011647Z - 012200Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rain will expand across the Four Corners
region through 22Z, likely bringing areas of flash flooding. Peak
hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches can be expected along with
6-hour rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, especially into the
upslope regions of the San Juan Mountains.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery from 1630Z showed an elongated
mid to upper-level trough over the West with two embedded
shortwaves, one over the CA/NV border and the other approaching
the northern Baja Peninsula, both advancing east. Highly
anomalous, deep layered moisture was seen streaming northeastward
into the Four Corners region on layered PW imagery, out ahead of
the advancing trough axis. Standardized precipitable water
anomalies were +4 to +6 in and around the Four Corners region with southwesterly 700 mb winds of 40-60 kt, rapidly transporting the
moisture downstream.

While mid-level lapse rates and instability are likely to remain
poor through much of the day, some degree of daytime heating
beneath the cloud cover and rainfall should contribute to at least
weak increases in MLCAPE through 21Z. While weak instability may
boost rainfall intensity, the greater contribution to heavy
rainfall rates will come from strong ascent ahead of the upper
trough axis and orographic lift, especially into the San Juan
Mountains. Elsewhere, unidirectional flow will allow for training
and repeating rounds of heavy rain with 0.5 inches in an hour or
less at times. These high rates will lead to rapid runoff across
areas slot canyons, burn scars and other areas of vulnerable
terrain.

While steady rain will gradually increase in intensity over the
next few hours, a period of intense hourly rainfall is anticipated
ahead of the advancing upper trough within the axis of greatest
IVT, forecast to slide from west to east this afternoon. 1-2
inches of rain have already been reported over the past 6 hours
(ending 16Z) in and around the San Juan Mountains and due to heavy
rainfall over the region over the past 1-2 weeks, soil moisture
and many area rivers, waterways are running above average. The
addition of more heavy rain this afternoon could lead to locally
significant impacts.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-3oYXISXBBLKjRWWNFOEMrEoi2VrAV1bvR76y29jfCQfCa5izy7ONuU1nEEjO7QTY7ew2ACJpyWuzj1EKgywpLi2Wl8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38580590 38060501 36990503 36450610 35120738
34840846 35010900 35990985 36441104 37401168
38491073 38440876
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 17:51:16

AWUS01 KWNH 011751
FFGMPD
FLZ000-012200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1543
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1249 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...central/southern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011748Z - 012200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of very high rain rates (2-4 in/hr) are
expected to maintain a threat for localized flash flooding across
portions of central and southern FL through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery over south-central FL at 1715Z
showed numerous thunderstorms in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee
with scattered coverage extending north and south over the central
and southern Peninsula. Evidence of an embedded MCV also shows in
radar imagery between Orlando and Lake Okeechobee while local
radar imagery indicated a chaotic pattern of movement with outflow
interactions impacting storm redevelopment near the coast. MRMS
indicated peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 4 inches over the past 4
hours within a very moist environment containing PWs of 1.7 to 2.2
inches and MLCAPE of 500-2000 J/kg (per 17Z SPC mesoanalysis).

The synoptic scale setup contains a north-south oriented upper
level trough over the western FL Panhandle while high pressure at
the surface centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast was helping to
focus enhanced low level easterly winds into the FL Peninsula.
925-850 mb winds of 20-30 kt were observed on area VAD wind plots
over central to southern FL, among relatively weak steering flow.
Mean deeper layer steering flow was oriented similarly to the low
level inflow but 10-20 kt weaker, allowing for a combination of
slow moving, back building and training of heavy rain cores.

The pattern will continue to be in place over a good portion of
the day today and over at least the next 4-5 hours, the threat of
peak hourly rainfall between 2-4 inches is expected to focus over
a broad region of central and southern FL. Ongoing cells over
south-central FL may begin to evolve westward while new
development occurs upstream across the eastern Peninsula later
this afternoon, although that will also be somewhat depending on
the movement of the apparent MCV near Lake Okeechobee. Localized
flash flooding will continue with the greatest threat for impacts
across the urban I-95 corridor and other urban locations within
the interior.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_xDVqM6CnFHhWAmQ_-_X_qIBF8TFlS_F3K5LGT2qqCSWdZv655QvxPip3SMg7IWVFuXNfp46-e4fx786xMb6s5FfKMY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29188087 28198016 27537980 26647956 25947970
25467985 25268055 25328072 25438077 25608075
25878063 25978059 26048067 26048089 25858116
25728141 25698167 25798193 26118226 26588258
27448310 28198317 28788275 29088203
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 20:05:00

AWUS01 KWNH 012004
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1544
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of lower MS Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012000Z - 020200Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding may occur through 02Z across
portions of the lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms, a few slow moving,
are likely to form with potential for isolated hourly rainfall
totals over 2 inches.

DISCUSSION...1940Z visible satellite imagery showed a cyclonic
swirl over southwestern LA with confluent/convergent axes noted
over southern portions of the state between I-10 and the coast as
well as in the vicinity of a surface trough extending northward
near the MS River. A second cyclonic swirl was noted near the
junction of AR/MS/LA. Precipitable water values remained high over
the region at 1.7 to 2.0 inches, but OSPO ALPW imagery showed that
this moisture was focused in the lower levels with a significant
layer of dry air sampled in the mid to upper levels.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 19Z showed 500 to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE
over LA into southern MS with little to no inhibition and
radar/visible satellite imagery was already showing the expanding
development of showers/thunderstorms near the confluent/convergent
axes noted above. 0-6 km winds were less than 10 kt from the
southern AR/MS border into much of LA with the 850-300 mb layer a
bit higher, up to 20 kt. This could promote some slow movement of
cells with hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, and isolated values of
2+ inches. However, given the different environment with respect
to the kinematic flow and drier air aloft, a repeat of the
isolated extreme rainfall observed on Halloween is not expected to
occur. However, overlap of locally heavy rain with urban areas or
locations that were impacted with heavy rainfall over the past 24
hours could see localized flash flooding through 02Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6AXSXgSpL8cB-4x00wT1VgWU7JvxBiKw6gsoAXx1xDz2AYnYCGxy4vUkWAU763XbLOR8mU2U-f6CFlIosRvdggyfDAE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33419106 33139070 32649060 31859077 30919058
30409021 29818956 29508976 29299008 29159088
29449159 29569258 29859299 30219314 30719312
31359285 32799210 33329166
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 21:07:44

AWUS01 KWNH 012107
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-020300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1545
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...Four Corners region into southeastern AZ and
southwestern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012105Z - 020300Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding is likely to continue over the Southwest
from the Four Corners region into southeastern AZ and southwestern
NM over the next 6 hours. Peak hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0+
inches and additional totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected.
Another round of storms will be possible for central AZ later this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery through 2030Z showed the eastward
push of deeper moisture advancing toward the east across UT/AZ
into western CO/NM, out ahead of an upper trough axis over central
UT/AZ. This was also seen in layered PW imagery with drier air
moving eastward into western UT/AZ. IVT values within the main
moisture axis ranged from 700 kg/m/s over southern CO to over 1000
kg/m/s in southern AZ, with the axis oriented from southwest to
northeast. Numerous flash flood warnings and reports have occurred
across central AZ into southeastern AZ near the Tucson metro over
the past 6 hours.

As the upper shortwave trough axis over UT/AZ continues to advance
east and northeast over the next 6 hours, the ongoing axis of
heavy rain over eastern AZ/western NM into the Four Corners region
will translate east, forecast to orient from the southern AZ/NM
border into northeastern NM by 02Z. Despite a lack of higher
instability, hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0+ inches will remain
possible within this axis as strong forcing aloft combines with
orographic enhancement, especially into the San Juan Mountains. An
additional 1 to 3 inches will be possible into the evening hours.

Back to the west, in the wake of clearing skies over the
southwestern to central portion of AZ, surface heating has been
allowing for growing instability with the 20Z SPC mesoanalysis
showing 500-1000 J/kg extending from Yuma into western Maricopa
County. While the magnitude of instability is likely near its
peak, some northeastward expansion of instability into central AZ
appears likely through 00Z. A few showers/thunderstorms are
expected to form within this instability axis where moisture
should remain sufficient to support hourly rainfall in the 0.5 to
1.0 inch range within areas of short term training. These
additional rains could result in exacerbating flooding conditions
ongoing across the region with an additional 1 to 2 inches prior
to the loss of daytime heating.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5_QBIrj9j0-S_byi0mncCKcXccisspu-uIMDrXI4CrxD3EfDIykFA8zYEx8ylROy_ToRje73h_SuNh0AqLedYD81DO4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...SLC...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39100740 38500581 36970492 35450481 33520556
31890753 31220862 31100981 31071099 31191163
31671302 31811336 32031351 32411339 35241254
37401084 38680935
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 21:53:10

AWUS01 KWNH 012152
FFGMPD
FLZ000-020300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1546
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012151Z - 020300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr
will continue through the evening. Although there continues to be
uncertainty in the placement of heaviest rainfall, some areas will
likely receive an additional 3-5+" of rain, leading to renewed and
additional flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this aftn depicts a large
area of heavy rain with embedded convection pivoting around the
southern and central Florida Peninsula. Embedded within this, an
MCV is clearly evident rotating over Lake Okeechobee. This MCV is
located within broad mid-level troughing and enhanced jet-level
diffluence, suggesting deep synoptic ascent is also in place. In
addition, the thermodynamics are extremely favorable for heavy
rain with PWs measured via GPS of around 2.1 inches, or well above
the 90th percentile for the date, with 1000-850mb and 850-700mb
LPW exceeding the 95th percentile according to CIRA. This is in
response to persistent easterly flow off the Atlantic, and where
MLCAPE remains above 1500 J/kg along the eastern Peninsula, MRMS
hourly rainfall has been well above 2 inches.

It has already been extremely wet across the Peninsula today,
reflected by NSSL QPE that has been 2-4 inches in many areas, with
locally more than 7 inches measured via mesonet sites near the
town of Okeechobee. As the MCV continues to pivot slowly to the
WNW, accelerated 850mb inflow from the Atlantic reaching 25-30 kts
will help to drive locally enhanced ascent and continue waves of
heavy rainfall. While there is some uncertainty among the various
CAMs as to the placement of the heaviest rainfall through the
evening, the focus will likely be just east of the MCV due to the aforementioned accelerated inflow overlapping the highest
instability. Corfidi vectors aligned generally anti-parallel to
the mean 0-6km winds indicate a high likelihood of training, and
with rainfall rates that could briefly touch 4"/hr (HRRR), both
the HREF and REFS indicate a 30-70% chance of at least 3" of
additional rainfall, with locally 5-7" possible.

Although the soils across Florida are generally more permeable to
heavy rainfall, this event appears favorable for more significant
runoff capable of flash flood impacts. Soils are already saturated
from today's rainfall, and this is reflected by high percentiles
in both the 0-40cm layer (98%) and 0-10cm RSM (60-80%). This
indicates that any additional rainfall should quickly transition
to runoff, even outside of urban areas, and for this reason the
risk for flash flooding is likely as thunderstorms continue to
repeat into the evening.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_W39-ZYG3vUcRDnG3C6DRq2w_xQy3o38wINJEarI9h4eWn2SQcCLaD6hBWUX_9ya30MH1mxQUpYE6sZ6zyL_kX8Tb5M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29138157 29038097 28678058 28038042 27458011
27358008 26697989 25977998 25478058 25558118
25908175 26368221 26778236 27278267 27698288
28338288 29038241
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, November 02, 2026 03:14:26

AWUS01 KWNH 020314
FFGMPD
FLZ000-020911-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1547
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1012 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020311Z - 020911Z

Summary...Scattered convection will continue to produce locally
heavy rain rates of 2 inches/hr at times though the next 6 hours.
Flash flooding is possible - especially where more persistent
thunderstorm activity can materialize.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery depicts a distinct MCV over
central FL (just northwest of Lake Okeechobee) that is a primary
driver of thunderstorm activity across the discussion area.
Convection was tied mainly to three regimes: 1) A band of
westward-moving convection from near Titusville/Daytona westward
to Ocala, 2) Isolated to scattered cellular convection along the
immediate coast from Melbourne southward through Vero Beach and
Miami, and 3) relatively new development close to the center of
the MCV near Sebring. The cells were embedded within an
abundantly moist/unstable airmass (2+ inch PW, 1000 J/kg SBCAPE)
for efficient rain rates beneath storms. Cells were also rotating
around the center of the MCV, with training/banding noted near Daytona/Titusville and Orlando that was producing occasional rain
rates to around 2 inches/hr at times and in spots. One dominant
cell near West Palm Beach produced spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates
for a few hours this evening, leading to significant impacts.

Low-level easterlies will help to maintain sufficient buoyancy for
deep convection for several more hours this evening (at least
through 09Z/4a eastern). Furthermore, the orientation of the MCS
will continue to force occasional convective development in bands
and in a scattered nature along the central and eastern portions
of the Peninsula. Rain rates currently are in check (peaking
around 1 inch/hr in a couple spots as of 0305Z) but the overall
scenario will occasionally support more areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain
rates through the night. Flash flooding remains a distinct
possibility - especially where heavy rainfall impacts 1) urban
locales and/or 2) coastal areas that may already be experiencing
tidal flooding due to onshore flow.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-uOg5l8gA8cX-CyjxJuimYNdA62HxrTo-8qaFjRvVbeZeS93YqTC3ufC_XCG4blEzQJlQZ7EYLxURSX27nTHWh7gEVo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30258162 29898105 28008035 26797991 25428018
25798072 26468126 27248175 27588189 28818223
29768216
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, November 02, 2026 09:07:50

AWUS01 KWNH 020907
FFGMPD
FLZ000-021505-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1548
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...portions of Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020905Z - 021505Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across central Florida.

Discussion...Deep, slow-moving convection continues to focus along
an effective outflow boundary stretching from near Daytona south
through Melbourne and west to near Sebring. Southeast of this
boundary, upper 70s F surface temps were contributing to around
1000 J/kg MLCAPE, while low-level easterlies were impinging on the
boundary, aiding in repeat convective development. Kinematics
continued to favor slow movement of cells and local backbuilding
at times along the boundary, while 2-2.1 inch PW values were
enabling efficient rain rates of over 2 inches/hr locally. MRMS
estimates of 3-7 inches of rainfall have occurred, and with
moderate to strong FLASH responses and recent FFG exceedances near
urban areas, excessive runoff/flash flooding is likely ongoing on
at least an isolated basis.

Ongoing convective trends will continue to change very little as
mid-level troughing/remnant MCV from prior convection remains
nearly stationary. Rainfall over interior portions of central FL
continues to reinforce the aforementioned boundary, while
additional cells develop both 1) along that boundary and 2) move
in from the unstable airmass over the adjacent Gulf Stream. Areas
of flash flooding remain likely, with locally significant impacts
possible where the heaviest of rainfall occurs over urban/poor
drainage areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8pj0KtD-mgc2KoQ0ZkYAeniuvaY8uUumqAWcMYUWvIBelqrMfre28QSzL15BqyalIL-ye2atlk0vCAEdhkSI_Ng0aG8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29598117 28908051 27828019 27078003 26608034
26518103 26658170 27228243 27858256 28388219
28828197 29518190
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, November 02, 2026 15:10:38

AWUS01 KWNH 021504
FFGMPD
FLZ000-021910-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1549
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1003 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...central to south-central FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021502Z - 021910Z

Summary...Areas of slow moving heavy rain will continue a threat
for flash flooding across central FL, some of which may continue
to be locally significant, over the next 2-4 hours. A southward
development of heavy rain will be possible into the early
afternoon.

Discussion...A few areas of slow moving heavy rain with embedded
thunderstorms continue to impact portions of central FL with peak
hourly rainfall of 4 to 5 inches over the past couple of hours
just south of Melbourne. A remnant MCV was located just east of
Tampa Bay with a focused axis of nearly stationary surface to near
surface convergence extending eastward to between Melbourne and
Vero Beach. In addition, a nearly stationary mid-level vorticity
max was positioned about 90 miles WSW of Fort Myers, FL.

Low level easterly winds of 20-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer are
expected to maintain over the next few hours with areas of
mesoscale low level convergence aiding in the production of slow
moving convective cores capable of 2 to 4+ inches in an hour.
MLCAPE from the 14Z SPC mesoanalysis and the 12Z soundings from
Tampa and Miami showed a gradient extending across the south
central Peninsula from northeast to southwest, along with PWs near
2 inches. The highest rates should focus near this gradient in
instability over the next 2-4 hours but of particular concern is
slow movement of nearly stationary supercell-like structures
embedded within the complex near the east coast of FL within the
zone of low level convergence. The RAP shows this axis weakening
over the next few hours, but that remains uncertain at this point.
In addition, there is some potential for cells to build farther
south into the instability across southwestern FL through 18Z/19Z,
between the MCV near Tampa Bay and the vorticity max offshore.

Despite the uncertainty beyond 18Z or so, there is high confidence
in the short term for continued areas of flash flooding due to
high rain rates, with some significant impacts across any urban
centers.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7j5zl9JJrWNJWiLEtWJ7qlrYYrBK9b4UETk4o3Jh7QLXDFsunb_e2s4G0h-touQ_v3SFeW0PVWwwKdvM0LUHoxLaSn8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28868104 28788029 28227994 27447979 26737988
26068030 25668103 25638172 26118228 27258281
28018270
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, November 02, 2026 19:46:02

AWUS01 KWNH 021945
FFGMPD
FLZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1550
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...Most of FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021943Z - 030100Z

Summary...A few areas of flash flooding will be likely over the
next 2-4 hours across portions of the FL Peninsula. Isolated peak
hourly rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches will remain possible, but the
threat for flash flooding may wane toward 00Z.

Discussion...1915Z radar imagery across FL showed two main axes of
heavy rain, one along the east coast from Palm Beach County to
Indian River County, and a second axis extending from the
southeastern Everglades to the interior Peninsula near Sebring.
Some degree of frictional convergence appeared to be aiding ascent
for the eastern Peninsula followed by cells tracking with the
deeper layer steering flow toward the NNW and training. An outflow
boundary was analyzed from just south of Vero Beach to the
northern shore of Lake Okeechobee to just south of Marco Island,
although recent convective development over southern FL has formed
an additional rain-cooled boundary that extended south to north
through the Everglades. While high PWs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches
extended throughout the Peninsula, MLCAPE was focused along and
southeast of the outflow with 1000-1500 J/kg via the 19Z SPC
mesoanalysis while weaker values of up to 500-1000 J/kg were
located over the central and northeastern Peninsula.

Easterly to southeasterly low level winds in the 925-850 mb layer
of 15-25 kt were located across the northern Bahamas into the east
coast with this setup likely to continue through 00Z. However,
there are some indications that forcing in the upper levels will
become a bit less favorable for widespread convection this
evening. A mid to upper level low ~120 miles west of Key West is
forecast to slowly drift southwest, away from the region while
upper level jet support weakens. However, mesoscale cold pools and
area convection with embedded mesocyclones will continue to pose a
flash flood threat over the next few hours with a focus near the
outflow boundary toward the southeastern Peninsula where better
instability resided. A secondary focus may form farther north
toward the northeastern Peninsula where better insolation was
occurring through broken cloud cover. Slow movement and training
of cells will continue to be capable of 2 to 4+ inch hourly
totals, although the probability for these higher rates should be
lowering through the remainder of the day. Even so, high rain
rates across urban and/or locations that have received heavy rain
over the past 24 hours will remain susceptible to flash flooding
with a possible waning of the threat near 00Z and beyond.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4fUzjspnHIrJ6I-HbozeZgT_j1bc0W8XxPT4Nf6VAiFDox9aq9x-72Nf3uiQ3Lj5_GS7DAzZ5853Pl9JFLXv0--LROE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29378182 29288054 28227994 27447979 26717973
25718008 25288074 25378155 26118228 27008274
27808281 28488252 29118216
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, November 03, 2026 02:00:16

AWUS01 KWNH 030159
FFGMPD
FLZ000-030758-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1551
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...Central to Southeast FL coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030158Z - 030758Z

Summary...The potential for localized extreme rainfall rates of
3-4"/hr will pose an isolated to scattered flash flood risk across
the central and southeast Florida coast overnight. While large
scale forcing is on the decline, persistent coastal convergence
and backbuilding could result in additional flash flood issues
along the urban corridor.

Discussion...Infrared satellite imagery over the past few hours
had exhibited a general warming cloud top trend across the Florida
Peninsula. However, recent trends reveal a few rapidly cooling
convective towers redeveloping along the Atlantic coast,
confirming that the mesoscale environment remains supportive of
localized intense updrafts.

Thermodynamically, the coastal airmass remains primed for high
rainfall rates. Recent mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE values
hovering between 1000 and 1500 J/kg, and latest HRRR cycles
maintain a continuous influx of instability off the Atlantic into
Florida through the overnight hours. In addition, PW values remain
elevated near 2 inches, ensuring tropical like warm rainfall
efficiency in stronger updrafts.

Overall deep layer synoptic forcing is on the decline across the
region, which should limit the broad coverage of heavy rainfall
compared to what we have seen. However, the combination of
localized coastal convergence, a replenishing instability pool,
and deep moisture will maintain a corridor favorable for localized
extreme rain rates.

Steering flow will favor individual cell motions generally toward
the west-northwest. However, where low-level convergence is
maximized along the coastline, eastward backbuilding is probable
within any organized clusters. Given the potential for hourly
rainfall rates to locally reach 3 to 4 inches, any backbuilding or
repeated cell tracking across the sensitive, coastal urban
corridor could quickly produce isolated to scattered instances of
flash flooding. Confidence with the details remain below average,
but at least a few instances of flash flooding are likely over the
next several hours, and locally significant impacts are possible.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8inCFgggB8mVZEjTZKEDWnE3Lo2AD6_Zy7bdDD3IHBwDD11BE1iMyo5wvMnyOMgF3PsJqRn2BotvsN0DTKRAeUO2tUs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28148073 28128033 27458006 26667982 26237986
25417999 25388038 25818052 26498052 27448071
27788077 28038080
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, November 03, 2026 15:12:28

AWUS01 KWNH 031512
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-032000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1552
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2026

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northwest LA...Western AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031455Z - 032000Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms with high rainfall rates ahead of
a slow moving cold front will result in swaths of heavy rainfall
that may lead to some instances of flooding through 2pm local time
from the ArkLaTex to the Ozarks.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a corridor of
moderate to heavy rainfall extending from northeastern Texas to
the Ozarks of north-central Arkansas this morning. There has been
an increase in stronger convection within this corridor, and
training storms are leading to areas of enhanced rainfall rates
between Little Rock and Clarksville.

The atmosphere is favorable for additional heavy rainfall through
the midday hours given nearly uni-directional flow with modest
veering with height, allowing for back-building cells that will
result in instances of convective training. PWs are approaching
the 1.7 to 2 inch range and mixed layer CAPE gradually increasing
into the 500-750 J/kg range per recent SPC mesoanalysis. Broader
deep layer ascent is also being aided by diffluent right entrance
dynamics and a nearby mid-level shortwave.

Recent runs of the CAM guidance are suggesting the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 2-4 inches across portions of
the outlook area through 2 pm local time, and this is also
supported by the HRRR and RRFS guidance. This is reasonable to
expect given recent radar trends, and some instances of flooding
are possible.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4KvEGzNLxNq3FhyFgw7bvojosGPfU9F4cIFz1mClxPBwt_RTSeOouA4utb4-w5ti1-Ce_xJqj2d9Ju3-rV60QzxGjT0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36499247 36349167 36099126 35609116 34689138
33879179 32929235 32199301 31749348 31479433
31559511 31849550 32159553 32719508 33299463
34139417 34989377 36169327
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, November 03, 2026 22:04:06

AWUS01 KWNH 032203
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-040400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1553
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern AR...Northern LA...Northwest MS...Western
TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032200Z - 040400Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms with high rainfall rates ahead of
a slow moving cold front will result in swaths of heavy rainfall
that may lead to some instances of flooding through 10 pm local
time from northern Louisiana to western Tennessee.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a corridor of
moderate to heavy rainfall extending from north-central Louisiana
to the Bootheel of Missouri this afternoon. Embedded within this
are convective elements with enhanced rainfall rates, highest
across northern Louisiana as of mid to late afternoon.

The atmosphere is favorable for additional heavy rainfall through
the evening hours given strong uni-directional flow with modest
veering with height, allowing for back-building cells that will
result in multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. PWs are anomalously
high with values generally in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch range, and mixed
layer CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg range per recent SPC mesoanalysis.
Thre presence of an incoming mid level shortwave and favorable
right entrance upper jet dynamics is allowing for broad deep
layered ascent in association with the cold front.

Recent runs of the CAM guidance are suggesting the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 2-3 inches across portions of
the outlook area through 10 pm local time, and this is also
supported by the HRRR and RRFS guidance. Much of this is likely to
fall within a 2 hour time period for any given location. This is
reasonable to expect given recent radar trends, and some instances
of flooding are possible.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9qQcPo9wthUW0PL3m8Lzs0TJE_X3LQoqlZKfdBnWnrz_WFXuYDdI17C1SdEI0CrgRjtuRPHoIgVpUNbggME7CYaXV-s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36359037 36308949 36118935 35348936 34718956
33728998 32779062 32219113 31649183 31549279
31819337 33229266 34289223 35299170 36159108
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, November 04, 2026 01:44:10

AWUS01 KWNH 040143
FFGMPD
FLZ000-040542-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1554
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
842 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2026

Areas affected...Southeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040142Z - 040542Z

Summary...A conditional urban flash flood risk exists across
portions of southeast Florida over the next several hours. An
uptick in convection between Fort Lauderdale and Boca Raton could
produce localized hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches if cells
persist and backbuild toward the coast.

Discussion...Regional radar and infrared satellite imagery
indicate a recent resurgence in convective activity along the
southeast Florida coast, highlighted by an area of cooling cloud
tops and developing storms between Fort Lauderdale and Boca Raton.
While conditions were relatively quiet across the area for much of
the afternoon, the mesoscale environment remains primed to support
heavy rainfall rates.

Thermodynamic profiles remain moist and unstable across southeast
Florida, with recent mesoanalysis indicating PW values near 2
inches and MLCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg. This combination of deep
moisture and ample instability provides an environment capable of
supporting heavy rainfall rates. Mean layer steering flow is
directed toward the northwest, however, low level inflow and
coastal convergence could support backbuilding toward the Atlantic
coast within any more organized convective cells. Confidence
regarding the exact convective evolution and coverage over the
next several hours remains on the lower side; nonetheless, a
conditional urban flash flood risk exists. Should cells organize
sufficiently to establish some backbuilding, localized hourly
rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches will be possible. While the
overall spatial coverage of stronger storms is expected to remain
low, the potential is there for high rainfall rate driven
localized flash flood impacts.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ZLzVvqchR__FaubktAjZvLabhPq6m7JMZZmYXIXfIf0PDMcyTatsUb85RB3m34zfrZk5lmGlExweV43rf11ro8Eryo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26808011 26327987 25807993 25578039 25928059
26258059 26608049
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, November 05, 2026 03:53:16

AWUS01 KWNH 050353
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-050900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1556
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1051 PM EST Wed Nov 04 2026

Areas affected...southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050350Z - 050900Z

Summary...Training potential of heavy rainfall within or just
outside of the southern Appalachians will continue for another 3-5
hours. Peak hourly rainfall over 2 inches will be possible along
with additional totals of 2 to 4+ inches.

Discussion...Radar imagery from 0315Z showed a band of training
thunderstorms over northern GA, impacting Murray, Gilmer and
Fannin counties. Several local Wunderground-sourced weather
stations have shown hourly rainfall of 2-4 inches within this
training axis along with rainfall totals of 6-10 inches since
midnight, with much of this falling within the past 2-3 hours. SPC
mesoanalysis data and the 00Z FFC sounding showed a moist and
unstable environment across the region with PWs of 1.6-1.8 inches
and MLCAPE between 500-1500 J/kg. Low level winds were 20-30 kt as
seen in the 925-850 mb layer, oriented from the SSW to SSE from
northwestern GA into upstate SC, a favorable orientation with
respect to the terrain of the southern Appalachians and a subtle
effective stationary front extending from northern GA into the
Carolinas.

Short term forecasts from the RAP showed slow eastward progress
overnight of a cold front extending from middle TN down through
southwestern AL, which should allow for an extended period of
northward moisture transport into the southern Appalachians.
However, RAP guidance also shows veering of the low level flow
through 09Z as the leading edge of broad upper troughing pushes
east overnight. Instability is forecast to lower through the
overnight but remain sufficient to support heavy rain. The veering
flow may bring an end to the training potential later tonight but
until then, potential will remain for training and hourly rainfall
of 2+ inches with some eastward extension of the flash flood
threat into upstate SC and southwestern NC as moisture/instability
advects into the region over the next few hours. Areas of flash
flooding will be possible through 09Z with the greatest impacts
across urban areas, typical flood prone locations within areas of
terrain or those with poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!87DKfLVgHQD8q04C2rmjPwm6DSTMlPCvGTdg7OY48bWJyd3qAW3LWt6hZligJXLavsuR7ETCX_95W0dizOSkiOx4Kv8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35878226 35538175 34678213 33938389 33958495
34338519 34918461 35668305
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, November 06, 2026 17:30:44

AWUS01 KWNH 061715
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-062200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1559
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1214 PM EST Fri Nov 06 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Mid-Atlantic States into Southern New
England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061714Z - 062200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will repeatedly lift along the
Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts into this evening with 1-2"/hr
rain rates. This will produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts. Flash flooding is possible, especially across urban areas.

Discussion...The GOES-E Day Cloud Phase RGB depicts an impressive
and continuous area of glaciating clouds representing impressive
updrafts aligned NE to SW from just off the coast of NJ through
Cape Cod/SE MA. This area is collocated with elevated
lightning-cast probabilities and a ribbon of elevated MLCAPE above
500 J/kg. Within this cloud area, a nearly continuous line of
heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms has developed, with PWs
above the 90th percentile (above 1.5") overlapping the MLCAPE to
drive the favorable environment. Recent MRMS estimated hourly
rainfall has been over 1 inch in the deepest convection.

The high res HRRR and RRFS are in generally good agreement that
convective activity will persist through the aftn, with expansion
and intensification also probable. This is in response to
persistent thermodynamic advection to the north ahead of a slowly
advancing cold front, with ascent provided near a wave of low
pressure and in response to a strengthening jet streak pivoting
across the southern Mid-Atlantic states. Together, this will
result in widespread rainfall with repeating echoes traveling SW
to NE thanks to mean 0-6km winds aligned to both the front and the
Corfidi vectors. In addition, 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40kts will
help organize cells into clusters, leading to locally enhanced
rainfall rates for which the REFS indicates has a 30-40% chance of
exceeding 1"/hr. The training of these rates could produce 2-3"
through the aftn, with locally higher amounts where training is
most prolonged.

Outside of the rain that has already occurred this morning to
pre-condition the soils (represented by elevated 0-10cm RSM from
NASA SPoRT), this area has been dry recently and 0-40cm soil
moisture is below the 10th-20th percentile in most areas. This
suggests that most of the rain may be more beneficial than
problematic. However, locally compromised FFG to 1.5"/3hrs does
result in a 10-15% chance of exceedance from the REFS, indicating
at least an isolated flash flood threat will continue, focused
primarily in urban areas, through the evening.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_0QyiVJ9jXPzfxx9TFzMCmEV8QiilIHtGSTxJIb1edp5T_gP0POXAXd6X737ASjMSd9y1ppgiGlLwFHQ90BmHI8FGK4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42957087 42717042 42507020 42227015 41957025
41657050 40787185 39817329 39477412 39597459
40047453 40687370 41427268 42227194 42767135
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, November 06, 2026 18:20:40

AWUS01 KWNH 061455
FFGMPD
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-062100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1558
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 AM EST Fri Nov 06 2026

Areas affected...Central North Carolina through Coastal New Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061500Z - 062100Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will train ahead of a cold
front through this afternoon. Rainfall rates may exceed 2"/hr at
times, which through training could produce 2-4" of rain. Isolated
instances of flash flooding may result, especially in urban areas.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows clusters
of thunderstorms associated with dual shortwave impulses lifting
through the Carolinas and the DelMarVa region. These shortwaves
are lifting north ahead of a cold front analyzed by WPC, leading
to locally enhanced convection reflected by pockets of expanding
glaciation on the Euro day-cloud phase RGB satellite imagery, and
MRMS 1-hr rainfall within deeper cores as high as 1.5". The
thermodynamic environment is extremely favorable for heavy rain,
as PWs in excess of 1.5" (above the 90th percentile) overlaps
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a ribbon advecting northeastward from
the Carolinas.

During the next few hours, persistent S/SW flow of 20-25 kts at
850mb will continue to supply these elevated thermodynamics
northward, and both the recent HRRR and RRFS runs indicate a
corridor of heavy rain will expand from central NC through the
Tidewater region of VA and into coastal DE/NJ. While the models
agree on this evolution, this is also supported by intensifying
ascent driven both by a wave of low pressure lifting along the
cold front and the sharpening LFQ of a jet streak pivoting across
the Southern Appalachians. Together, this will help expand
precipitation, and with 0-6km mean winds aligned to both the cold
front and the propagation vectors, training of echoes is likely.

Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr are possible at times (20-30%
chance from the REFS) which through this training could produce
axes of 2-4" of rain (>50% chance of at least 3"). A lack of
recent rain has dropped 0-40cm soil moisture to below the 10th
percentile, and FFG is consequently elevated. This will limit the
flash flood risk through this aftn. However, as precipitation
expands and intensifies, any training of the most intense rain
rates, especially if they occur across urban areas, could result
with instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6KhCrK7v6G4gtC69dR0mjdgOK0CloL3_c9c6Q6m7y7juaNE4j3QAyLTsO_kzULFERicI1NENYt78ni-9T4ONLouQZiA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MHX...PHI...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39777409 39207416 38077489 36737586 35837657
35157760 34977851 35117926 35507954 36287893
37247778 38417640 39217543 39647445
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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