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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0375

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 03, 2025 11:39:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 031138
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031138=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0375
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0638 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

    Areas affected...north Texas and southeast OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...

    Valid 031138Z - 031345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Elevated cells will continue to pose a large hail risk
    this morning across portions of north Texas into southeast Oklahoma.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of strong, elevated supercells across western
    north TX will continue to shift east through the morning. This
    activity is occurring in a warm advection regime atop a stalled
    surface boundary draped across north/north-central Texas eastward to
    the AR/LA border. Steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to
    modest elevated instability, with MUCAPE values around 1000-2000
    J/kg noted in latest mesoanalysis. Additional cells may develop
    within this regime through the morning hours and large hail
    potential may persist beyond the 13z expiration time of Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 106. Some severe potential also could persist
    downstream of the current watch, though north and east extent is
    somewhat uncertain. A new watch, or a local watch extension will
    likely be needed in the next hour or so.

    ..Leitman.. 04/03/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4EMPxZqSFsS0dYDjcSXAc_1DYAxdwE_XdGTiY39DIFPaHzn9g7ks7EN06Asfut9SQb1Oo54bm= 0DrNSe1sNStZ2S7yB4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 33859877 34489576 34399464 33889441 32979495 32419639
    32189815 32349875 32749908 33369911 33859877=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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