ACUS11 KWNS 031442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031441=20
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-031615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Middle/northeast TN into southeast KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 031441Z - 031615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring for storm intensification through the morning.
Some threat for all severe hazards could evolve with time.

DISCUSSION...Occasional supercell structures continue to be observed
this morning with convection moving across middle/northeast TN. Thus
far, these cells have generally stayed north of an outflow boundary
draped across the region, though the cell currently south of
Nashville is located in the immediate vicinity of this front. With
some heating/destabilization ongoing south of the front, there will
be some potential for storm intensification with cells that can
remain rooted near the boundary, which may move northward through
the day.=20

With MLCAPE expected to increase through the 500-1000 J/kg
along/south of the front and favorable wind profiles expected to
persist through the day, some threat for all severe hazards could
evolve with time near the boundary, with an isolated hail and
damaging wind threat north of the boundary. However, with generally
modest large-scale ascent expected through the morning, the
short-term severe threat and need for watch issuance remains
uncertain.

..Dean/Guyer.. 04/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4JKBMO1TnF8HR2E0Sakdv3Eam83ALmNnv6AiMZRQ5OlH4nwf3kPQfqqjnnJ5Y4HUcN5pk3Y9v= 16c0iFqLkhyzTJLOoQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 36248666 37098489 37358389 37178332 36978312 36878304
36608303 36088384 35928449 35838494 35748547 35648610
35648662 36248666=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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