ACUS11 KWNS 031622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031622=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Southeast OK...northeast TX...northern
LA...central/southern AR...western/middle TN...northern MS...far
northwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 031622Z - 031815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe storm threat will increase into this afternoon.
One or more watches will likely be needed, though timing is somewhat
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms are ongoing this morning from
eastern OK into AR and western TN. These storms are currently
elevated to the north of an outflow-reinforced front draped from the
ArkLaTex into southern AR and northern MS. A rather strong southerly
low-level jet (as noted on regional VWPs) is expected to persist
into the afternoon, which will help to maintain elevated convection
north of the front. This regenerative convection will likely tend to
limit northward advance of the front through the day. However,
moderate to strong MUCAPE and favorable deep-layer shear will
support development of elevated supercells and clusters north of the
front, with an attendant threat of large to very large hail and
severe/damaging gusts.=20

Along/south of the front, a favorable tornado environment is already
in place, with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg, strong deep-layer shear,
and enlarged low-level hodographs with 0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2.
This environment will remain in place into this afternoon.
Decreasing MLCINH with time will support potential for surface-based
storm development near and south of the front, though the coverage
and residence time of warm-sector supercells remains uncertain. Any
sustained surface-based supercell within this environment would pose
a significant tornado (EF2+) threat, in addition to very large hail
and severe wind potential.=20

While timing remains somewhat uncertain, one or more watches will
likely be needed this afternoon across the region, with a Tornado
Watch likely for areas near/south of the front.

..Dean/Guyer.. 04/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9AUXqS-yp8NpugHD83Wi3R0qNoWex3hwDwDP7atbl5GjaksJfFlRhAcjAn8xRqiIGgMLGypLN= 7jep5Xg1BHTmcCcjDo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 34718775 33618958 32019427 31579503 31549574 31739596
31919600 32979564 33789503 34499354 35339112 36108940
36478757 36588665 36148628 35558661 34958739 34718775=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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