ACUS11 KWNS 031924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031923=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-032100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Extreme northern MS into western/middle TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...

Valid 031923Z - 032100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues.

SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected this afternoon,
including potential for tornadoes, damaging wind, and isolated hail.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster has recently intensified across
western TN, with other showers and small cells developing south and
east of this cluster, in the vicinity of an outflow-reinforced
front. The front earlier moved northward across middle TN, but has
shown signs of stalling or beginning to sag southward over the last
hour.=20

The storm cluster moving out of western TN appears likely to
traverse the area along and just south of the front, within an
environment characterized by moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg),
strong (60+ kt) deep-layer shear, and generally favorable low-level
shear/SRH. One or more embedded supercells within this cluster may
become capable of producing tornadoes, especially near the surface
boundary, along with a threat of large to locally very large hail
and damaging winds. A strong tornado is possible, especially if any semi-discrete supercells can be sustained.=20

Additional cells developing across far northeast MS into southwest
TN may also mature into supercells, posing a threat of hail,
damaging winds, and possibly a strong tornado if the cells can
persist along/south of the boundary within the warm sector.=20

Aside from the potential for surface-based supercells, a few
stronger elevated cells/clusters also remain possible north of the
front, with a threat for hail and damaging wind.

..Dean.. 04/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8K0u6w3muM9ja6djRjP1Tv6nzCyFbbX5ZJ000q5rQ6ItPikbQ8lpSxDsb73wc43Z95H9lRxfB= Rg0BVu0FD7L1jAx8b0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 35168746 35018794 34688835 34298861 34218886 34238912
34328921 34548941 34948898 35158883 35268849 35838812
36168733 36198718 36498616 35998593 35648615 35168746=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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