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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0384

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 03, 2025 23:40:20
    ACUS11 KWNS 032340
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032339=20
    TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-040115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0384
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0639 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas. northwest Mississippi...and far
    southwest Tennessee

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...109...

    Valid 032339Z - 040115Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107, 109 continues.

    SUMMARY...The primary risk appears to be large hail. While much less
    likely, damaging winds and/or a brief tornado cannot be entirely
    ruled out on a very localized basis.

    DISCUSSION...Several elevated supercell clusters are tracking
    northeastward across portions of southern AR and northwest MS -- to
    the north of a stationary boundary draped across northern MS into
    far southern AR. The LZK/NQA VWPs continue to sample a very
    elongated/straight hodograph, with around 60-70 kt of effective
    shear north of the boundary. This, along with steep midlevel lapse
    rates atop a cool/stable boundary layer (yielding 2500-3000 J/kg
    MUCAPE), will continue to favor elevated supercell structures
    capable of producing large hail (generally upwards of 2 inches in
    diameter).=20

    Given the elevated nature of these storms, and limited potential for
    northward movement of the boundary and related warm sector, the
    tornado and damaging-wind risks appears low. With that said, if
    these storms can intercept any localized pockets of surface-based
    instability north of the boundary, large low-level streamwise
    vorticity would support a tornado risk.

    ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7nUmnXOfPG4n7hN_OCPMNOs9bMU5oRnvzRaxMOZzFgixXUQ0ctAittoeNDkhu0Zv6wVjLcG_u= pwW6Y6NG7CMnXoIglY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 34169246 34889111 35449017 35538974 35448937 35118910
    34738929 34109045 33449220 33529259 33849263 34169246=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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