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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0385

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 04, 2025 00:57:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 040056
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040056=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-040200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0385
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0756 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of northeast Arkansas into far southeast
    Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108...

    Valid 040056Z - 040200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat appears to have decreased across much of
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108, though isolated severe hail remains
    possible across portions of northeast Arkansas into far southeast
    Missouri.

    DISCUSSION...The latest regional VWP data suggests that the core of
    the southwesterly low-level jet is advancing eastward away from the
    watch area, and this seems to be favoring a decrease in overall
    thunderstorm intensity and coverage. Nevertheless, the LZK 00Z
    sounding sampled 56 kt of effective shear and modestly steep
    midlevel lapse rates above the cool/stable boundary layer (yielding
    around 1700 J/kg MUCAPE). This will continue to support elevated
    supercell structures capable of producing isolated severe hail. This
    risk should generally be greatest across the eastern portion of the
    watch area, and extending northeastward into far southeast
    MO/northwest MS/southwest KY -- where the aforementioned low-level
    jet will tend to focus thunderstorm activity. While isolated severe
    hail potential will persist northeast of the watch, the downstream
    severe risk appears too localized/marginal for an additional watch
    at this time, though convective trends will be monitored.

    ..Weinman.. 04/04/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6P2SzK8-Z-DgFPjpsggjNiEicCkFud3FHi9f-tuJ0UcgZKVzOhTI2UysfMhjhQ_jA8Yl7IAJJ= G8QDVdOItV_K4w5Kgo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 34699284 35219258 35769212 36759039 36888980 36788920
    36558908 36188934 34569171 34449252 34699284=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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