ACUS11 KWNS 040158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040158=20
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-040330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...parts of western Kentucky...western Tennessee...far northeastern Arkansas...far southern Illinois...and far southern
Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 040158Z - 040330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated storms capable of large hail are possible this
evening across parts of the lower Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi
Valley. A watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing near the Mississippi River
have displayed lowered correlation coefficient and near-0
differential reflectivity colocated with large reflectivity, which
are signs of large hail production. These storms are elevated above
a cool boundary layer but have approximately 1000 J/kg MUCAPE per
mesoanalysis, which is sufficient buoyancy for hail production.
Also, most of this buoyancy is above the freezing level per
short-term RAP profiles. Hodographs above the surface stable layer
display strong deep-layer shear (60+ kts effective bulk shear). Some
limiting factors for severe hail may be the lack of steep lapse
rates and therefore the relatively skinny buoyancy profiles.
Additionally, buoyancy decreases with eastward extent, which may
limit the longevity of the hail risk. However, given recent radar
trends, a watch a may be needed to cover the hail risk.

..Supinie/Hart.. 04/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7cr7XZGjTje7-YuLRfWdX1K-_M4p4b3zjr5-pKpaOntZS0Cd4qi2qcClaoc4JJbALgZ4aIDX-= m6kl5KBUNELzfiTR1E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 35258929 35568992 36229039 36639018 37308847 38048617
38238513 38058480 37718473 37028576 36358676 35298885
35258929=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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