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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0387

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 04, 2025 03:40:29
    ACUS11 KWNS 040340
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040339=20
    TXZ000-040545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0387
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1039 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of southwest and central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 040339Z - 040545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase by 06Z across portions of
    southwest and central Texas. Large hail will be the primary concern,
    though severe wind gusts and possibly a tornado cannot be ruled out.
    A watch will likely be issued within the hour.

    DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery loops and VWP data
    depict a midlevel impulse advancing northeastward across northern
    Mexico -- within the base of an amplified larger-scale trough over
    the West. In response, 850-700-mb warm advection will continue
    strengthening across southwest into central TX over the next few
    hours. This is already supporting isolated thunderstorms along the
    western edge of a steep midlevel lapse rate plume and related
    buoyancy (see latest SAT ACARS soundings). As the large-scale ascent
    continues spreading eastward, a rapid increase in thunderstorm
    development is expected within the steeper lapse rates, where
    2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE (higher farther south) and 70+ kt of effective
    shear will favor organized thunderstorms including supercells. Most
    of these storms will be developing north of the surface-based
    instability and should remain elevated with a risk of large hail.
    However, any storms that develop farther south along the boundary
    may be near-surface-based, posing an additional risk of severe wind
    gusts and a tornado -- given ample low-level shear/clockwise-curved
    hodographs. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the area
    within the hour.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 04/04/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_7o7BXbRzMXLxbE9Xsf20TCqmerM0Tr4HBB4lbvuNET2UdXieLaVCCty14heUNPIfXki_b3_4= rkrIaMdfygAFx6pbPQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29700203 30160213 31620180 32440144 32850099 33090040
    33149985 32969923 32449894 31849892 31089902 30469931
    29830001 29480067 29370121 29700203=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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