ACUS11 KWNS 040635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040635=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-040830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...parts of w cntrl through nw Texas and adjacent swrn
OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 110...

Valid 040635Z - 040830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 110
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms, posing primarily the risk
for large, potentially damaging, hail appears likely to spread
across and northeast of the San Angelo and Abilene vicinities
through 3-5 AM CDT. The extent to which this threat persists
northward into the Red River Valley and north central Texas
thereafter remains unclear, but trends are being monitored for the
possibility of an additional severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have developed the past few
hours, including several sustained vigorous storms. Activity is all
rooted above shallow cold air to the north of a sharp surface front
(now stalled near the College Station into Austin and Del Rio
vicinities), focused along the northwestern periphery of capping
elevated mixed-layer air, roughly delineated by temperatures of 8-10
C around 700 mb. Forecast soundings along this corridor exhibit
"loaded gun" thermodynamic profiles, rooted within a moist layer
between 850-700 mb, characterized by most unstable CAPE in excess of
1000 J/kg. Shear within the convective layer is strong and
supportive of supercells.=20=20

The more intense convection appears likely to shift with the
stronger lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent forecast to
spread across the San Angelo toward Abilene vicinity during the next
several hours. There are indications in latest model output that
further warming above the potentially more buoyant lower-level air
mass could increasingly suppress stronger storm development toward
09-10Z. However, this remains uncertain.

..Kerr.. 04/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5V7_86qs9tAK0I-7G8ltJf8WwW7XI2yGTtGBywyFED-nncX1u5oL93KcKJjw70TWxNdUNSzSh= eU45b_f9-lVBn5D0ME$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 29900169 31020205 33440049 34539894 33479738 31819887
30080016 29690124 29900169=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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