ACUS11 KWNS 040706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040706=20
MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-040900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...parts of cntrl/nrn AR...adjacent wrn TN....sern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 040706Z - 040900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development may persist and/or increase
through daybreak across parts of central into northern Arkansas and
adjacent portions of the Mid South. Stronger cells could pose a
risk for severe hail. It is not clear that a watch is needed, but
trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Scattered, moderately strong thunderstorm development
has persisted above shallow cold air to the north of sharp stalled
surface front (southeast of Memphis into the El Dorado and
Shreveport vicinities), roughly focused along the baroclinic zone
around 925 mb. This has been supported by forcing for ascent
associated with low-level warm advection, despite the presence of
inhibition associated with warm layers aloft, beneath broadly
anticyclonic mid/upper flow.

Downstream of a short wave perturbation progressing
north-northeastward across the Texas South Plains vicinity, the
focusing low-level baroclinic zone is forecast to shift northward
during the next few hours, perhaps across and north of a Hot
Springs-Memphis line by 12Z. Model output suggests that this may be accompanied by increasing, elevated thunderstorm development to the
north of it, with thermodynamic profiles and convective-layer shear
perhaps still supportive of the risk for severe hail in isolated to
widely scattered stronger cells.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-WfC1rVjbnMTPCR7-Uhv_OlVN6NhIQfatRl0KSAz4i7OpDsytYct_no6w3aQ-j2kNXLmzpAZp= P1xFv9DliWHM8X9KIk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 35449411 36319185 36518997 35308968 34599032 33779224
34049316 35449411=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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