ACUS11 KWNS 040752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040752=20
DEZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-040845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...ern WV Pnhdl...nrn VA...MD...DC...srn PA...DE...srn
NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 040752Z - 040845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, may accompany
weak thunderstorm activity likely to spread east of the Blue Ridge
and across the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore metropolitan areas
through 6-7 AM EDT. It is not clear that a severe weather watch is
needed, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...A narrow line of thunderstorms has shown some
intensification, near and south of a wave or weak MCV now east of
Elkins WV. This activity has been propagating rapidly eastward,
along and just south of a slow moving or stalling cold front,=20
around 50 kt, which is about the strength of the mean westerly
deep-layer ambient mean flow across the Allegheny Mountains into
northern Mid Atlantic.=20=20

Due to generally weak deep-layer lapse rates, CAPE along this
corridor is quite weak west of the mountains, but improves somewhat
(CAPE to 500 J/kg) in better low-level moisture across northern
Virginia through southern New Jersey. While some further
intensification to the east of the Blue Ridge is possible as
activity rapidly advances eastward through 11-12Z, thunderstorm
intensities are likely to remain rather modest, based on forecast
soundings. However, unsaturated profiles in lower/mid-levels, may
contribute to evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport of rear-inflow, which may undergo some further convective augmentation.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5k8uM8zl-tGJwXmiye7jBh2vQNo0klxwQ1qaETJzlEspjGuSk9HrpEDg_cexI2JYcBKKhFr5m= xCwYHRcIa4oJDE7wxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39897751 39677548 38737539 38497760 38557915 39397855
39897751=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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