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  • ADVISORY: Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 27a

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 18, 2025 05:34:59
    609
    WTNT35 KNHC 180534
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
    200 AM AST Mon Aug 18 2025

    ...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
    AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
    ...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
    EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK...


    SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.6N 69.9W
    ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
    ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Turks and Caicos Islands
    * Southeast Bahamas

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.

    Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina
    Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located
    near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 69.9 West. Erin is moving toward
    the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn to the north is
    expected later today and on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
    core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the southeastern
    Bahamas today and move between Bermuda and the east coast of the
    United States by the middle of the week.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
    Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is expected
    today. Even though some weakening is forecast beginning tonight,
    Erin will remain a large and dangerous major hurricane through the
    middle of this week.

    Erin is increasing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
    to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
    extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

    The minimum central pressure based on Air Force reconnaissance
    dropsonde data is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

    RAINFALL: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
    produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico.
    Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches are expected across Puerto Rico
    today. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally
    higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast over the Turks and Caicos
    and the eastern Bahamas including San Salvador Island through
    Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with
    landslides or mudslides, are possible.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
    associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
    and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.

    SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
    the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
    next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
    from your local weather forecast office for more information.

    A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
    at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

    STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
    onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
    Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
    waves.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi


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