469=20
AXNT20 KNHC 180620
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Aug 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin, now a category 4 hurricane is centered near 22.3N
69.3W at 18/0300 UTC or 110 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island. It is=20
moving NW at 10 kt and the estimated minimum central pressure is=20
942 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.=20
Peak seas are around 44 ft near the center. Heavy rain and
isolated thunderstorms are within 80 nm of Erin's center. Its
outer rainbands are producing scattered to numerous heavy showers
and isolated strong thunderstorms across the southeast Bahamas,=20
Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola. Locally considerable=20
flash and urban flooding are probable in these locations, while=20
landslides or mudslides are possible across Hispaniola.=20

Erin is expected to pass east and then northeast of the Turks and
Caicos Islands overnight, and the southeast Bahamas on Monday.=20
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos=20
Islands overnight, and in the southeast Bahamas overnight through=20
Monday. Some additional strengthening is anticipated for the next
12 hours, then followed by gradual weakening. Regardless of
strength, Erin will continue to grow in size over the next few=20
days. The expanding wind field will result in dangerous marine=20
conditions across much of the western Atlantic. Swells generated=20
by Erin will continue to affect the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,=20
Hispaniola, the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos=20
Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will spread=20
to the rest of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions=20
of the week. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf=20
and rip currents along the beaches of the above locations during=20
the next several days. Please consult products from your local=20
weather forecast office for more information.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!7SpKLS17yU-muMhXezBC4iH-Amk8V0meup03oHycbvvkhX0eEuypKfVkeaZLXj_vj= LQ75ZcD3W6Yl_tGlyHt3GB72jM$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!7SpKLS17yU-muMhXezBC4iH-Amk8V0meup03oHycbvvkhX0eEuypKfVkeaZLXj_vj= LQ75ZcD3W6Yl_tGlyHtTxwOcrw$ for more information.
For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7SpK= LS17yU-muMhXezBC4iH-Amk8V0meup03oHycbvvkhX0eEuypKfVkeaZLXj_vjLQ75ZcD3W6Yl_t= GlyHtllDFekk$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A pronounced far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from=20
the western Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is=20
occurring from 13N to 16N between 24W and 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 18N southward,=20
and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate=20
convection is seen from 10N to 14N between 43W and 53W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from near the Cayman
Islands southward to western Panama. It is moving west around 10 kt.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
near central Panama and nearby waters, and also over northern
Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
Dakar, then curves west-southwestward across 10N29W to 11N43W.=20
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted near the
monsoon trough from 06N to 10N between 30W and 39W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is found south of the monsoon trough near the=20
coast of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front is over northern Florida, including the
Panhandle. Together with a surface trough over central and=20
southwestern Florida, they are causing scattered showers and=20
isolated thunderstorms near the Big Bend area and off Naples.=20
Otherwise, s 1016 mb high pressure near the Louisiana coast=20
dominates much of the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds
and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail for the remainder
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will drift=20
across the northwestern Gulf through Wed night and continue to
support generally light to gentle winds and slight seas. Then,=20
the Atlantic high pressure will build westward along 23N on Thu,=20
as Hurricane Erin moves north of Bermuda.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section on Hurricane Erin.

Convergent southerly winds feeding toward Hurricane Erin are
generating widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. A surface trough
extending southwestward from Erin is creating isolated
thunderstorms at the lee of Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves
section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Mostly fresh
S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 9 ft are dominating the=20
northeastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Moderate NE to SE=20
winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are seen at the rest of the eastern=20
basin, and at the lee of central Cuba. Light to gentle winds with=20
seas at 1 to 2 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh S to SW winds occurring at the northeastern
basin and the Atlantic Passages will gradually diminish to moderate
while shifting to the S on Mon. Large northerly swell will also=20
bleed through the Passages into the northeastern basin through=20
Mon morning before fading afterward. Easterly trade winds are=20
expected to return to the eastern and central portions of the=20
basin on Wed while increasing to fresh across most of central=20
portion Wed night and Thu, as the Atlantic high pressure builds=20 west-southwestward in the wake of Erin.=20
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for on=20
Hurricane Erin.

Convergent southerly winds associated with a stationary front at
the north-central Atlantic are producing scattered moderate
convection north of 27N between 47W and 60W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong NE to=20
E to SSE winds with 9 to 14 ft seas are seen along the periphery
of Hurricane Erin. Outside the influence of Erin, a 1021 mb high
near 27N41W is promoting gentle ENE to S winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft north of 24N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia=20
coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 11N to 24N between 35W and=20
the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally fresh NE to SE=20
winds and 2 to 5 ft Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 6=20
ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest of the=20
Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast, major Hurricane Erin will move to 23.2N 70.2W=20
Mon morning, 24.6N 71.3W Mon evening and 26.1N 72.1W Tue morning.
AFterward, Erin will be at 28.0N 72.8W Tue evening, 29.9N 73.1W=20
Wed morning, and 32.0N 72.5W Wed evening. Erin will change little=20
in intensity as it moves near 36.5N 67.5W late Thu. Swells=20
generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of the Virgin=20
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
during the next couple of days. These swells will spread to the=20
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States, and=20
Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of the week.=20
These rough marine conditions will likely cause life-threatening=20
surf and rip currents. The pressure gradient between a ridge over=20
the eastern U.S. and Erin will promote moderate to fresh N to NE=20
winds offshore northern Florida to near 76W from early Tue through
Wed. In the wake of Erin, high pressure will build west-=20
southwestward along 24N through Thu night.=20

$$

Chan

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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533=20
AXNT20 KNHC 180620
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Aug 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin, now a category 4 hurricane is centered near 22.3N
69.3W at 18/0300 UTC or 110 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island. It is=20
moving NW at 10 kt and the estimated minimum central pressure is=20
942 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.=20
Peak seas are around 44 ft near the center. Heavy rain and
isolated thunderstorms are within 80 nm of Erin's center. Its
outer rainbands are producing scattered to numerous heavy showers
and isolated strong thunderstorms across the southeast Bahamas,=20
Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola. Locally considerable=20
flash and urban flooding are probable in these locations, while=20
landslides or mudslides are possible across Hispaniola.=20

Erin is expected to pass east and then northeast of the Turks and
Caicos Islands overnight, and the southeast Bahamas on Monday.=20
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos=20
Islands overnight, and in the southeast Bahamas overnight through=20
Monday. Some additional strengthening is anticipated for the next
12 hours, then followed by gradual weakening. Regardless of
strength, Erin will continue to grow in size over the next few=20
days. The expanding wind field will result in dangerous marine=20
conditions across much of the western Atlantic. Swells generated=20
by Erin will continue to affect the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,=20
Hispaniola, the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos=20
Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will spread=20
to the rest of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions=20
of the week. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf=20
and rip currents along the beaches of the above locations during=20
the next several days. Please consult products from your local=20
weather forecast office for more information.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!7zkkE12SaEKVxIbAXMhYf2JZuD2PQu2KjktXHRNJngr3y2bMMYFrvgVPmBt2Mfi7G= -dBiQftXF-F2i0jvGmhzwmGJjs$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!7zkkE12SaEKVxIbAXMhYf2JZuD2PQu2KjktXHRNJngr3y2bMMYFrvgVPmBt2Mfi7G= -dBiQftXF-F2i0jvGmhCuZKKF0$ for more information.
For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7zkk= E12SaEKVxIbAXMhYf2JZuD2PQu2KjktXHRNJngr3y2bMMYFrvgVPmBt2Mfi7G-dBiQftXF-F2i0= jvGmh10uH6e4$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A pronounced far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from=20
the western Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is=20
occurring from 13N to 16N between 24W and 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 18N southward,=20
and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate=20
convection is seen from 10N to 14N between 43W and 53W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from near the Cayman
Islands southward to western Panama. It is moving west around 10 kt.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
near central Panama and nearby waters, and also over northern
Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
Dakar, then curves west-southwestward across 10N29W to 11N43W.=20
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted near the
monsoon trough from 06N to 10N between 30W and 39W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is found south of the monsoon trough near the=20
coast of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front is over northern Florida, including the
Panhandle. Together with a surface trough over central and=20
southwestern Florida, they are causing scattered showers and=20
isolated thunderstorms near the Big Bend area and off Naples.=20
Otherwise, s 1016 mb high pressure near the Louisiana coast=20
dominates much of the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds
and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail for the remainder
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will drift=20
across the northwestern Gulf through Wed night and continue to
support generally light to gentle winds and slight seas. Then,=20
the Atlantic high pressure will build westward along 23N on Thu,=20
as Hurricane Erin moves north of Bermuda.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section on Hurricane Erin.

Convergent southerly winds feeding toward Hurricane Erin are
generating widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. A surface trough
extending southwestward from Erin is creating isolated
thunderstorms at the lee of Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves
section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Mostly fresh
S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 9 ft are dominating the=20
northeastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Moderate NE to SE=20
winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are seen at the rest of the eastern=20
basin, and at the lee of central Cuba. Light to gentle winds with=20
seas at 1 to 2 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh S to SW winds occurring at the northeastern
basin and the Atlantic Passages will gradually diminish to moderate
while shifting to the S on Mon. Large northerly swell will also=20
bleed through the Passages into the northeastern basin through=20
Mon morning before fading afterward. Easterly trade winds are=20
expected to return to the eastern and central portions of the=20
basin on Wed while increasing to fresh across most of central=20
portion Wed night and Thu, as the Atlantic high pressure builds=20 west-southwestward in the wake of Erin.=20
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for on=20
Hurricane Erin.

Convergent southerly winds associated with a stationary front at
the north-central Atlantic are producing scattered moderate
convection north of 27N between 47W and 60W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong NE to=20
E to SSE winds with 9 to 14 ft seas are seen along the periphery
of Hurricane Erin. Outside the influence of Erin, a 1021 mb high
near 27N41W is promoting gentle ENE to S winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft north of 24N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia=20
coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 11N to 24N between 35W and=20
the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally fresh NE to SE=20
winds and 2 to 5 ft Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 6=20
ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest of the=20
Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast, major Hurricane Erin will move to 23.2N 70.2W=20
Mon morning, 24.6N 71.3W Mon evening and 26.1N 72.1W Tue morning.
AFterward, Erin will be at 28.0N 72.8W Tue evening, 29.9N 73.1W=20
Wed morning, and 32.0N 72.5W Wed evening. Erin will change little=20
in intensity as it moves near 36.5N 67.5W late Thu. Swells=20
generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of the Virgin=20
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
during the next couple of days. These swells will spread to the=20
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States, and=20
Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of the week.=20
These rough marine conditions will likely cause life-threatening=20
surf and rip currents. The pressure gradient between a ridge over=20
the eastern U.S. and Erin will promote moderate to fresh N to NE=20
winds offshore northern Florida to near 76W from early Tue through
Wed. In the wake of Erin, high pressure will build west-=20
southwestward along 24N through Thu night.=20

$$

Chan

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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051=20
AXNT20 KNHC 181100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Aug 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Category 4 Hurricane Erin is centered near 22.8N 70.2W at 18/0900
UTC or 90 nm NNE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 11 kt.=20
Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb. Maximum sustained=20
wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are around 45
ft or 15 meters near the center. Numerous moderate to strong=20
convection is from 17N to 26N between 66W and 74W. On the forecast
track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the=20
southeastern Bahamas today and move between Bermuda and the east=20
coast of the United States by the middle of the week. Some=20
additional strengthening is expected today. Even though some=20
weakening is forecast beginning tonight, Erin will remain a large=20
and dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week. Swells
generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east=20
coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next=20
several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from=20
your local weather forecast office for more information.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4VatoJdUdtYewdVVxFcETPN2ubm5Cl3fmAh6nf7KEtaWMbb5ZBhmPC5J2BFIMcD_P= 6n7FK4J16rEofLrdP87Kw8AbUI$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4VatoJdUdtYewdVVxFcETPN2ubm5Cl3fmAh6nf7KEtaWMbb5ZBhmPC5J2BFIMcD_P= 6n7FK4J16rEofLrdP87jlSMeZE$ for more information.
For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Vat= oJdUdtYewdVVxFcETPN2ubm5Cl3fmAh6nf7KEtaWMbb5ZBhmPC5J2BFIMcD_P6n7FK4J16rEofL= rdP87j1p3xog$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N with axis near 27W,=20
moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
occurring from 06N to 16N between 25W and 33W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N with axis near 50W,=20
moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen=20
from 08N to 15N between 50W and 56W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 82W,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection=20
associated with this wave at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, then curves=20
SW across 09N27W to 12N43W. Aside from the convection associated=20
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 08N
to 12N between 13W and 19W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the SE CONUS extends into the Gulf where is
anchored by a 1015 mb high near 28N93W. A weak pressure gradient
across the region continue to support light to gentle variable
winds basin-wide along with slight seas. Otherwise, a surface
trough, remnants of a dissipating stationary front, is supporting
scattered showers over the NE Gulf. A surface trough moving across
the Bay of Campeche is supporting similar shower activity in the
SW Gulf.=20

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will drift=20
across the northwestern Gulf through Wed night and continue to
support generally light to gentle winds and slight seas. Then,=20
the Atlantic high pressure will build westward along 23N on Thu,=20
as Hurricane Erin moves north of Bermuda.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section on Hurricane Erin.

Major Hurricane Erin is near 22.8N 70.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is=20
moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with
gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 945 mb.=20
Mostly fresh S to SE winds and seasse of 3 to 6 ft are dominating
the eastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle=20
winds with slight seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea W of
70W.

For the forecast, Erin will move to 23.6N 71.2W this afternoon,=20
25.0N 72.2W Tue morning, 26.6N 72.9W Tue afternoon, 28.6N 73.4W=20
Wed morning, 30.7N 73.4W Wed afternoon, and 32.9N 72.2W Thu=20
morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near=20
37.2N 66.1W early Fri. Fresh S to SW winds occurring over the NE=20
and N-central Caribbean as well as the Atlantic Passages will=20
gradually diminish to moderate to fresh S winds today. Large=20
northerly swell will also bleed through the Mona Passage through=20
this morning before subsiding. Easterly trade winds are expected=20
to return to east and central portions of the basin on Wed and=20
increase to fresh speeds across most of central portions Wed night
and Thu as Atlantic high pressure builds west-southwestward in=20
the wake of Erin.=20
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for further details on=20
Hurricane Erin.

Major Hurricane Erin is near 22.8N 70.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is=20
moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with
gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 945 mb.=20
Aside from Erin, a cold front is moving across the north-central=20
waters generating scattered moderate convection N of 28N between=20
40W and 57W. The remainder central and eastern subtropical waters
are under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a 1024 mb=20
high near 36N27W and a 1021 mb high near 26N40W. The pressure=20
gradient between the ridge and two tropical waves S of 20N is=20
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas over=20
these regions.

For the forecast, Erin will move to 23.6N 71.2W this afternoon,=20
25.0N 72.2W Tue morning, 26.6N 72.9W Tue afternoon, 28.6N 73.4W=20
Wed morning, 30.7N 73.4W Wed afternoon, and 32.9N 72.2W Thu=20
morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near=20
37.2N 66.1W early Fri. Swells generated by Erin will affect the=20
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and=20
Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean=20
conditions will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip=20
currents. The pressure gradient between a ridge over the eastern=20
U.S. and Erin will promote moderate to fresh N to NE winds=20
offshore northern Florida to near 76W from early Tue through Wed.=20
In the wake of Erin, high pressure will build west- southwestward=20
along 24N through Thu night.=20

=20

$$
Ramos

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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119=20
AXNT20 KNHC 181758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Aug 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin is centered near 23.5N 71.1W at 18/1800 UTC or
120 nm N of Grand Turk Island, moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 937 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt, making Erin a category 4=20
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Peak seas=20
are around 48 ft or 14.5 meters near the center. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is from 18N to 27N between 67W and 76W. A=20
turn to the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn=20
to the north and on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of=20
Erin is expected to pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas=20
today and move between Bermuda and the east coast of the United=20
States by the middle of the week. Some additional strengthening is
expected today. Erin will remain a dangerous major hurricane=20
through the middle of this week. Swells generated by Erin will=20
affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States,=20
and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough=20
ocean conditions will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip=20
currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-Ne4Inz1H3EddonzU4kojK8lNLohcq8h90oUF08dPuplo_wKveISmLiBr8pHI5IUq= SZ45sR4Y2AK7UqrUk6M6JptAeM$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-Ne4Inz1H3EddonzU4kojK8lNLohcq8h90oUF08dPuplo_wKveISmLiBr8pHI5IUq= SZ45sR4Y2AK7UqrUk6MfBYfZMQ$ for more information.
For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Ne4= Inz1H3EddonzU4kojK8lNLohcq8h90oUF08dPuplo_wKveISmLiBr8pHI5IUqSZ45sR4Y2AK7Uq= rUk6Mq-IESyQ$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 17.5N with axis near 33W,=20
moving west around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
occurring from 05N to 15N between 26W and 40W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18.5N with axis near 51.5W,=20
moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen=20
from 08N to 11N between 51W and 55W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 82.5W,
moving west at 5 to 10 kt. There is no significant convection=20
associated with this wave at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, then curves=20
SW to near 06N43W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06N43W to 08N50W,
where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ then resumes near
09N53W and extends NW to 11N61W. Other than the convection
described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate
convection is occurring along the ITCZ from 09N to 11N between 56W
and 59W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the SE CONUS extends into the Gulf where is
anchored by a 1015 mb high near 27N95W. A weak pressure gradient
across the region continues to support light to gentle variable
winds basin-wide along with slight seas. Otherwise, a surface
trough along the W coast of FL is leading to scattered showers=20
and isolated thunderstorms in the far NE Gulf. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring in the Bay of=20
Campeche as a diurnal surface trough moves westward, and in the=20
NW Gulf as well.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight seas are=20
expected over the Gulf of America this week as high pressure=20
prevails over the northern Gulf into the southern United States.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for further details on=20
Hurricane Erin.

Mostly fresh S to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are dominating=20
the eastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle=20
winds with slight seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea W of
70W.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Erin is centered near 23.1N=20
70.8W at 18/1500 UTC or 100 nm N of Grand Turk Island, moving WNW=20
at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb. Maximum=20
sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Erin will=20
move to 24.2N 71.6W this evening, 25.7N 72.5W Tue morning, 27.4N=20
73.2W Tue evening, 29.5N 73.5W Wed morning, 31.7N 73.1W Wed=20
evening, and 33.9N 71.6W Thu morning. Outer bands of Erin will=20
produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across portions of=20
Hispaniola today. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with=20
locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast. Fresh S to SW=20
winds over the north-central Caribbean and through the Atlantic=20
passages will continue through tonight as Erin lifts northwestward
to northward, with winds diminishing through Tue. Rough seas are=20
expected in the Mona Passage today before seas subside tonight.=20
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate are then=20
expected late Tue through late this week over the central and=20
eastern basin as high pressure builds in the wake of Erin.=20
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for further details on=20
Hurricane Erin.

Aside from Erin, a stationary front north of the region is leading
to scattered moderate convection developing N of 27N between 41W
and 60W. Ridging prevails across much of the remaining Tropical=20
Atlantic, with moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas
prevailing across much of the basin E of 60W. Fresh to locally
strong NE winds are occurring E of 40W and N of 20N, confirmed by
scatterometer data. To the south of the monsoon trough,
scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh S winds and 4-7 ft
seas. Moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere
across the Atlantic away from Erin.=20

For the forecast, Hurricane Erin is centered near 23.1N 70.8W at=20
18/1500 UTC or 100 nm N of Grand Turk Island, moving WNW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb. Maximum sustained=20
wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Erin will move to=20
24.2N 71.6W this evening, 25.7N 72.5W Tue morning, 27.4N 73.2W=20
Tue evening, 29.5N 73.5W Wed morning, 31.7N 73.1W Wed evening,=20
and 33.9N 71.6W Thu morning. Erin will change little in intensity
as it moves to 37.7N 65.0W early Fri. Tropical storm conditions=20
are expected today across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the=20
southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible in=20
portions of the central Bahamas late today through Tuesday.=20
Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and=20
the east coast of the United States during the next several days.
These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening=20
surf and rip currents. Looking ahead, a tropical wave located=20
over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized=20
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear=20
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical=20
depression could form during the latter part of the week. This=20
system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20=20
mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the=20
vicinity of the Leeward Islands toward the end of the week. There
is a medium chance of development within the next 7 days.=20

$$=20
Adams

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824=20
AXNT20 KNHC 182128
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Aug 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Erin is centered near 24.0N 71.3W at 18/2100 UTC=20
or 600 nm SW of Bermuda, moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum=20
central pressure is 937 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt
with gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are around 44 ft. Seas 8 ft or=20
greater are covering much of the waters W of 62W. Numerous=20
moderate to strong convection is from 19N to 27N between 67W and=20
74W. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected over portions of=20
Hispaniola this evening, and through Tuesday for the Turks and=20
Caicos, the southeast Bahamas, and the easternmost central=20
Bahamas. Flash and urban flooding are possible. Over the next 72=20
hours or so, Erin should turn northward. Erin's continued=20
expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over=20
much of the western Atlantic. Erin is expected to produce life-=20
threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the=20
Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic
Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas=20
should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach
warning flags.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-QD1ybi6FTSbbKZus2iykYDOhKjtzkowjebYA8rBMd2aiNv2HBjII-Ip4hNQIOTJQ= QuBg5QbCwAMyAIr5nugB6mTzbc$ and the latest Erin=20
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://urldefense.com/v3/__ht= tp://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-QD1ybi6FTSbbKZus2iykYDOhKjtzkowjebYA8rB= Md2aiNv2HBjII-Ip4hNQIOTJQQuBg5QbCwAMyAIr5nugPayvrWE$=20=20
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 18W from 04N to 18N, moving=20
west around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong=20
convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 17W and 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W from 04N to 18N, moving=20
west around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong=20
convection is noted from 04N to 16N between 30W and 40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 54W from 05N to 18N, moving=20
west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from=20
09N to 11N between 53W and 56W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W S of 20N, moving west at=20
10 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this=20
wave at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends SW
to near 06N45W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06N45W to 09N52W. It=20
resumes near 10N535 to 11N61W. Aside from convection described in
the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection=20
is noted from 07N to 14N between 21W and 30W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is resulting in light=20
to gentle winds basin-wide along with slight seas.=20

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to=20
gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf waters.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for further details on=20
Hurricane Erin.

Moderate S to SE winds, and seas of 3 to 6 ft, prevail E of 70W.=20
Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Hurricane Erin will move to 24.9N 71.9W Tue=20
morning, 26.5N 72.8W Tue afternoon, 28.4N 73.5W Wed morning, and=20
continue northward away from the Caribbean through late this week.
Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy=20
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola this evening, and=20
additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts=20
to 6 inches, are forecast. Fresh S to SW winds over the north-=20
central Caribbean and through the Atlantic passages will continue=20
tonight as Erin lifts northward, with winds diminishing through=20
Tue. Rough seas are expected in the Mona Passage today before seas
subside tonight. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and=20
moderate are then expected late Tue through late this week over=20
the central and eastern basin as high pressure builds in the wake=20
of Erin.
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for further details on=20
Hurricane Erin.

Aside from conditions associated with Erin, a surface trough=20
extends across the NW portion of the discussion waters. High=20
pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N and E of 63W. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 3-7 ft, generally prevail W of 35W.=20
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-8 ft prevail E of 35W.=20

For the forecast, Hurricane Erin will move to 24.9N 71.9W Tue=20
morning, 26.5N 72.8W Tue afternoon, 28.4N 73.5W Wed morning, 30.5N
73.7W Wed afternoon, 32.7N 73.0W Thu morning, and 34.8N 71.2W Thu
afternoon. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves to=20
38.0N 64.0W Fri afternoon. Outer bands of Erin will produce=20
localized areas of heavy rainfall through Tuesday for the Turks=20
and Caicos, the southeast Bahamas, and the easternmost central=20
Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher
amounts to 6 inches, are forecast. Swells generated by Erin will=20
affect the Bahamas and the east coast of the United States during=20
the next several days. A tropical wave located over the eastern=20
tropical Atlantic is producing limited disorganized showers and=20 thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for=20
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression=20
could form toward the end of the week. This system should move=20
westward to west- northwestward at about 20 mph across the central
tropical Atlantic and approach the vicinity of the Leeward=20
Islands on Friday. There is a low chance of development within the
next 48 hours, and a medium chance within the next 7 days.=20

$$
AL

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075=20
AXNT20 KNHC 190620
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Aug 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Erin is centered near 24.4N 71.7W at 19/0300 UTC=20
or 600 nm SW of Bermuda. It is moving NW at 7 kt and the estimated
minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained winds are=20
110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are around 52 ft near the
center. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering much of the western
Atlantic west of 62W. Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring up to 60 nm from the center. Its outer rainbands will
continue to produce scattered heavy showers and isolated strong
thunderstorms across the Turks and Caicos, and the southeast=20
Bahamas through Tuesday, and the easternmost central Bahamas
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. This will increase the chance
for flash and urban flooding. Erin will gradually pull farther away
from the Turks and Caicos, and southeast Bahamas tonight through
Tuesday. It is expected to pass east of the central Bahamas on
Tuesday while turning northward through Tuesday evening. Swells=20
generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several
days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from=20
your local weather forecast office for more information.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-yYDSQ8HHNL3MAqSEvJXUbDb00_QYgkL3k6uxvcfIkjLfdPMWHIz6d0Vm3SSL-VZ2= FZv5YzMbj6DGjsKBjCLbX36kvU$ and=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-yYDSQ8HHNL3MAqSEvJXUbDb00_QYgkL3k6uxvcfIkjLfdPMWHIz6d0Vm3SSL-VZ2= FZv5YzMbj6DGjsKBjCL1stV66w$ for more details.
For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,=20
visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-yYD= SQ8HHNL3MAqSEvJXUbDb00_QYgkL3k6uxvcfIkjLfdPMWHIz6d0Vm3SSL-VZ2FZv5YzMbj6DGjs= KBjCLiCQ5nUk$ for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A robust tropical wave is off the central Africa coast near 18W=20
from 19N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous=20
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N=20
between 18W and 22W.

A broad eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 17N=20
southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to=20
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 39W=20
and 43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N to=20
16N between 28W and 38W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 19N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Low to mid-level dry air is
hindering any significant convection.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from just south of
the Yucatan Channel southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa
Rica into the East Pacific. It is moving west around 15 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near the Honduras-Nicaragua border.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritanian coast
just north of Nouakchott, then extends southwestward across=20
13N30W to a 1012 mb low near 07N42W before turning northwestward=20
to 10N46W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
flaring up near the low from 05N to 08N between 40W and 45W.=20

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection over the western Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough over western Florida is triggering isolated
thunderstorms off Naples and near the Big Bend area. Otherwise,=20
weak ridging is sustaining gentle to locally moderate winds and=20
seas of 1 to 3 ft for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight seas are=20
expected over the Gulf this week as high pressure prevails over=20
the northern Gulf into the southern United States.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section on Hurricane Erin.

Convergent southerly winds are creating isolated thunderstorms in
the northeastern basin. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional=20
convection in the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh SE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the eastern=20
basin. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail for the
rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds over the central and
eastern basin will become easterly by Tue evening as Erin=20
continues to lift northward away from the region. Moderate to=20
fresh trade winds and moderate seas are then expected Tue night=20
through the weekend, increasing to strong over the south-central=20
basin Wed evening through Sat as high pressure builds in the wake=20
of Erin.
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning about=20
Hurricane Erin.

Convergent E to SE winds along the periphery of Erin are causing=20
scattered moderate convection from 21N to 28N between 68W and 71W.
Converging S to SW surface winds along with divergent flow aloft
are creating similar conditions north of 28N between 44W and 62W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at
the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong ENE to SE winds and seas of 10 to 14 ft seas are
present along the periphery of Hurricane Erin from 20N to 29N=20
between 64W and 67W. The subtropical ridge is supporting gentle to
moderate ENE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 23N between
35W and 64W. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 10
ft are present across the northwest and central Bahamas, and east
of Florida. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 23N between 35W
and the Lesser Antilles/63W, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and
5 to 7 ft seas exist. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE to
S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail
elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast, Hurricane Erin will move to 25.4N 72.3W Tue=20
morning, 27.1N 73.2W Tue evening, 29.2N 73.7W Wed morning, 31.4N=20
73.5W Wed evening, 33.5N 72.5W Thu morning, and 35.4N 70.0W Thu=20
evening. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near=20
38.5N 62.9W late Fri. A tropical wave located over the central=20
tropical Atlantic is producing some disorganized showers and=20
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for=20
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression=20
could form toward the end of the week as the system approaches the
offshore waters of Puerto Rico.=20

$$

Chan

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838=20
AXNT20 KNHC 191052
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Aug 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Erin is centered near 24.8N 72.0W at 19/0900 UTC
or 590 nm SW of Bermuda, moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum=20
central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt
with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are around 49 ft near the center.
Seas 8 ft or greater are covering much of the western Atlantic=20
west of 63W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 20N=20
to 26N between 67W and 74W. Scattered moderate convection in
spiral bands are elsewhere from 16N to 30N between 64W and 76W.=20
On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to the east of
the Bahamas today and tonight, and then move over the western=20
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and=20
Thursday. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few
days. Erin is a large hurricane and will continue to grow in=20
size. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,=20
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during=20
the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected=20
to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult=20
products from your local weather forecast office for more=20
information.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-tRq9qWBQvRHfeAlxZFAiqwuLzUTzM0m90EMyHA2OwATAdfubkQ-BC_MRvYkcwM7n= _xf33VoCTcDWGTeoE75j6Bu8i0$ and=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-tRq9qWBQvRHfeAlxZFAiqwuLzUTzM0m90EMyHA2OwATAdfubkQ-BC_MRvYkcwM7n= _xf33VoCTcDWGTeoE75ORKtv1w$ for more details.
For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,=20
visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-tRq= 9qWBQvRHfeAlxZFAiqwuLzUTzM0m90EMyHA2OwATAdfubkQ-BC_MRvYkcwM7n_xf33VoCTcDWGT= eoE75TPjy7Ug$ for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 19N with axis near 21W,=20
moving west at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
occurring from 11N to 16N between 18W and 26W.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 18N with axis near 37W,=20
moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen=20
from 12N to 17N between 30W and 40W.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis S of 20N=20=20
near 57W, moving west at 15 kt. There is no convection=20
associated with this wave at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, then curves=20
SW across 07N40W to 10N46W. Aside from the convection associated=20
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 04N to 14N between 40W and 48W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The Gulf continues under the influence of a weak surface ridge=20
due to the presence of Major Hurricane Erin to the E of the
Bahamas. This is sustaining light to gentle winds and slight seas
basin-wide.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight seas are=20
expected over the Gulf through Sat as high pressure prevails over
the northern Gulf into the southern United States.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for further information on
Hurricane Erin.

Hurricane Erin is near 24.8N 72.0W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving=20
northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts=20
to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Mostly=20
moderate SE winds, and slight to moderate seas are across the=20
eastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle winds=20
with slight seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea W of 70W.=20

For the forecast, Erin will move to 26.1N 72.7W this afternoon,=20
28.1N 73.5W Wed morning, 30.3N 74.0W Wed afternoon, and continue=20
northward away from the Caribbean through the weekend. Outer bands
of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across=20
portions of the NE, north-central and NW Caribbean through=20
tonight. Moderate to fresh SE winds over the central and eastern=20
Caribbean will become easterly by this evening as Erin continues=20
to lift northward away from the region. Moderate to fresh trade=20
winds and moderate seas are then expected tonight through the=20
weekend, increasing to strong speeds over the south-central basin=20
Wed evening through Sat as high pressure builds in the wake of=20
Erin.=20
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for further information on
Hurricane Erin.

Hurricane Erin is near 24.8N 72.0W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving=20
northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts=20
to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Aside from
Erin, a frontal boundary moving across the north-central waters
continues to generate scattered moderate convection N of 27N=20
between 40W and 63W. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are ahead of
the front along with moderate seas. The remainder central and=20
eastern subtropical waters are under the influence of a broad=20
ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high near 36N25W and a 1019 mb high=20
near 26N43W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and two=20
tropical waves S of 20N is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E=20
winds and moderate seas over these regions, except for locally
strong NE winds across the Canary Islands where seas are 7 to 8
ft.

For the forecast, Erin will move to 26.1N 72.7W this afternoon,=20
28.1N 73.5W Wed morning, 30.3N 74.0W Wed afternoon, 32.6N 73.4W=20
Thu morning, 34.6N 71.4W Thu afternoon, and 36.5N 68.4W Fri=20
morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near=20
39.5N 61.0W early Sat. Swells generated by Erin will affect the=20
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and=20
Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean=20
conditions are expected to cause life- threatening surf and rip=20
currents. Otherwise, a tropical wave located over the central=20
tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of=20
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions=20
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a=20
tropical depression could form toward the end of the week or=20
weekend. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at
about 20 kt across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the
vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday.

$$
Ramos

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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643=20
AXNT20 KNHC 191051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Aug 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Erin is centered near 24.8N 72.0W at 19/0900 UTC
or 590 nm SW of Bermuda, moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum=20
central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt
with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are around 49 ft near the center.
Seas 8 ft or greater are covering much of the western Atlantic=20
west of 63W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 20N=20
to 26N between 67W and 74W. Scattered moderate convection in
spiral bands are elsewhere from 16N to 30N between 64W and 76W.=20
On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to the east of
the Bahamas today and tonight, and then move over the western=20
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and=20
Thursday. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few
days. Erin is a large hurricane and will continue to grow in=20
size. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,=20
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during=20
the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected=20
to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult=20
products from your local weather forecast office for more=20
information.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!5HShO7KoeTijH9SGqOGeArcFitgr85YXnnENSQ_0vrnmSjBlE91qQkO0dS9B-IQBd= EM360OBJadW5-F6NNiMPh1bNnE$ and=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!5HShO7KoeTijH9SGqOGeArcFitgr85YXnnENSQ_0vrnmSjBlE91qQkO0dS9B-IQBd= EM360OBJadW5-F6NNiMn5-QFlw$ for more details.
For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,=20
visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5HSh= O7KoeTijH9SGqOGeArcFitgr85YXnnENSQ_0vrnmSjBlE91qQkO0dS9B-IQBdEM360OBJadW5-F= 6NNiMW6QjcV0$ for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 19N with axis near 21W,=20
moving west at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
occurring from 11N to 16N between 18W and 26W.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 18N with axis near 37W,=20
moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen=20
from 12N to 17N between 30W and 40W.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis S of 20N=20=20
near 57W, moving west at 15 kt. There is no convection=20
associated with this wave at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, then curves=20
SW across 07N40W to 10N46W. Aside from the convection associated=20
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 04N to 14N between 40W and 48W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The Gulf continues under the influence of a weak surface ridge=20
due to the presence of Major Hurricane Erin to the E of the
Bahamas. This is sustaining light to gentle winds and slight seas
basin-wide.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight seas are=20
expected over the Gulf through Sat as high pressure prevails over
the northern Gulf into the southern United States.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for further information on
Hurricane Erin.

Hurricane Erin is near 24.8N 72.0W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving=20
northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts=20
to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Mostly=20
moderate SE winds, and slight to moderate seas are across the=20
eastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle winds=20
with slight seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea W of 70W.=20

For the forecast, Erin will move to 26.1N 72.7W this afternoon,=20
28.1N 73.5W Wed morning, 30.3N 74.0W Wed afternoon, and continue=20
northward away from the Caribbean through the weekend. Outer bands
of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across=20
portions of the NE, north-central and NW Caribbean through=20
tonight. Moderate to fresh SE winds over the central and eastern=20
Caribbean will become easterly by this evening as Erin continues=20
to lift northward away from the region. Moderate to fresh trade=20
winds and moderate seas are then expected tonight through the=20
weekend, increasing to strong speeds over the south-central basin=20
Wed evening through Sat as high pressure builds in the wake of=20
Erin.=20
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for further information on
Hurricane Erin.

Hurricane Erin is near 24.8N 72.0W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving=20
northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts=20
to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Aside from
Erin, a frontal boundary moving across the north-central waters
continues to generate scattered moderate convection N of 27N=20
between 40W and 63W. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are ahead of
the front along with moderate seas. The remainder central and=20
eastern subtropical waters are under the influence of a broad=20
ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high near 36N25W and a 1019 mb high=20
near 26N43W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and two=20
tropical waves S of 20N is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E=20
winds and moderate seas over these regions, except for locally
strong NE winds across the Canary Islands where seas are 7 to 8
ft.

For the forecast, Erin will move to 26.1N 72.7W this afternoon,=20
28.1N 73.5W Wed morning, 30.3N 74.0W Wed afternoon, 32.6N 73.4W=20
Thu morning, 34.6N 71.4W Thu afternoon, and 36.5N 68.4W Fri=20
morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near=20
39.5N 61.0W early Sat. Swells generated by Erin will affect the=20
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and=20
Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean=20
conditions are expected to cause life- threatening surf and rip=20
currents. Otherwise, a tropical wave located over the central=20
tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of=20
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions=20
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a=20
tropical depression could form toward the end of the week or=20
weekend. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at
about 20 kt across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the
vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday.

$$
Ramos

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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982=20
AXNT20 KNHC 191245
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Aug 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin is centered near 25.2N 72.2W at 19/1200 UTC or
580 nm SW of Bermuda, moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95
kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are around 49 ft near the=20
center. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering much of the western=20
Atlantic west of 63W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is=20
from 20N to 26N between 67W and 74W. Scattered moderate convection
in spiral bands are elsewhere from 16N to 30N between 64W and=20
76W. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to the=20
east of the Bahamas today and tonight, and then move over the=20
western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on=20
Wednesday and Thursday. Fluctuations in strength are possible over
the next few days. Erin is a large hurricane and will continue to
grow in size. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas,=20
Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada=20
during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are=20
expected to cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please=20
consult products from your local weather forecast office for more=20 information.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4WQQ76-CgpCoMTeGTqDkcobbn0pmTEHV8NlKrudgbprvRuPnD9aRIRBQKUf377QMQ= nLrC7dbcGv_iPhqtTdWpb0Q_aI$ and=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4WQQ76-CgpCoMTeGTqDkcobbn0pmTEHV8NlKrudgbprvRuPnD9aRIRBQKUf377QMQ= nLrC7dbcGv_iPhqtTdWMvdHHDY$ for more details.
For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,=20
visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4WQQ= 76-CgpCoMTeGTqDkcobbn0pmTEHV8NlKrudgbprvRuPnD9aRIRBQKUf377QMQnLrC7dbcGv_iPh= qtTdWAzRss2Y$ for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 19N with axis near 21W,=20
moving west at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
occurring from 11N to 16N between 18W and 26W.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 18N with axis near 37W,=20
moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen=20
from 12N to 17N between 30W and 40W.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis S of 20N=20=20
near 57W, moving west at 15 kt. There is no convection=20
associated with this wave at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, then curves=20
SW across 07N40W to 10N46W. Aside from the convection associated=20
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 04N to 14N between 40W and 48W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The Gulf continues under the influence of a weak surface ridge=20
due to the presence of Major Hurricane Erin to the E of the
Bahamas. This is sustaining light to gentle winds and slight seas
basin-wide.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight seas are=20
expected over the Gulf through Sat as high pressure prevails over
the northern Gulf into the southern United States.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for further information on
Hurricane Erin.

Hurricane Erin is near 24.8N 72.0W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving=20
northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts=20
to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Mostly=20
moderate SE winds, and slight to moderate seas are across the=20
eastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle winds=20
with slight seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea W of 70W.=20

For the forecast, Erin will move to 26.1N 72.7W this afternoon,=20
28.1N 73.5W Wed morning, 30.3N 74.0W Wed afternoon, and continue=20
northward away from the Caribbean through the weekend. Outer bands
of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across=20
portions of the NE, north-central and NW Caribbean through=20
tonight. Moderate to fresh SE winds over the central and eastern=20
Caribbean will become easterly by this evening as Erin continues=20
to lift northward away from the region. Moderate to fresh trade=20
winds and moderate seas are then expected tonight through the=20
weekend, increasing to strong speeds over the south-central basin=20
Wed evening through Sat as high pressure builds in the wake of=20
Erin.=20
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for further information on
Hurricane Erin.

Hurricane Erin is near 24.8N 72.0W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving=20
northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts=20
to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Aside from
Erin, a frontal boundary moving across the north-central waters
continues to generate scattered moderate convection N of 27N=20
between 40W and 63W. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are ahead of
the front along with moderate seas. The remainder central and=20
eastern subtropical waters are under the influence of a broad=20
ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high near 36N25W and a 1019 mb high=20
near 26N43W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and two=20
tropical waves S of 20N is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E=20
winds and moderate seas over these regions, except for locally
strong NE winds across the Canary Islands where seas are 7 to 8
ft.

For the forecast, Erin will move to 26.1N 72.7W this afternoon,=20
28.1N 73.5W Wed morning, 30.3N 74.0W Wed afternoon, 32.6N 73.4W=20
Thu morning, 34.6N 71.4W Thu afternoon, and 36.5N 68.4W Fri=20
morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near=20
39.5N 61.0W early Sat. Swells generated by Erin will affect the=20
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and=20
Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean=20
conditions are expected to cause life- threatening surf and rip=20
currents. Otherwise, a tropical wave located over the central=20
tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of=20
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions=20
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a=20
tropical depression could form toward the end of the week or=20
weekend. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at
about 20 kt across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the
vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday.

$$
KRV

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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236=20
AXNT20 KNHC 191806
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Aug 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1806 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin is centered near 26.1N 72.5W at 19/1800 UTC or
550 nm SW of Bermuda, moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are around 40 ft north of the=20
center. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering much of the western=20
Atlantic west of 64W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is=20
from 20N to 26N between 68W and 73W. Scattered moderate convection
in spiral bands are elsewhere from 16.5N to 31N between 66W and=20
77W. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to the=20
east of the Bahamas today and tonight, and then move over the=20
western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on=20
Wednesday and Thursday. Fluctuations in strength are possible over
the next few days. Swells generated by Erin will affect the=20
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and=20
Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean=20
conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip=20
currents. Please consult products from your local weather=20
forecast office for more information.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!8RoZKnk4EjHv2-Tuax_Cfado_KgiGxeIhEHaFqc0Za16xWYnHVPXKiAR7I2BAlLuy= JEhTSM1t3bP3pvfCWvBLhleaow$ and=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!8RoZKnk4EjHv2-Tuax_Cfado_KgiGxeIhEHaFqc0Za16xWYnHVPXKiAR7I2BAlLuy= JEhTSM1t3bP3pvfCWvBJIDbDkE$ for more details.=20
For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,=20
visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8RoZ= Knk4EjHv2-Tuax_Cfado_KgiGxeIhEHaFqc0Za16xWYnHVPXKiAR7I2BAlLuyJEhTSM1t3bP3pv= fCWvBjJynhBg$ for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 19N with its axis near 21.6W,
moving west at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
occurring from 11.5N to 23N between 19W and 27.5W.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with its axis near 38.5W,
moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen=20
from 12N to 18N between 34W and 41W.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with its axis S of=20
19N near 59W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. There is no convection=20
associated with this wave at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16.5W, then curves
SW across 14N23W to 07N49W. Aside from the convection associated=20
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong=20
convection is from 04N to 13N between 41W and 50W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The Gulf continues under the influence of a weak surface ridge=20
due to the presence of Major Hurricane Erin to the E of the
Bahamas. This is sustaining light to gentle winds and slight seas
basin-wide. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are depicted north
of 24.5N across the basin.=20

For the forecast, a weak ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters supporting light to gentle winds with slight seas.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for further information on
Hurricane Erin.

Hurricane Erin is centered near 26.1N 72.5W at 19/1800 UTC or
550 nm SW of Bermuda, moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Mostly moderate SE winds, and slight to=20
moderate seas are across the eastern Caribbean, including the=20
Mona and the Windwards Passages. Light to gentle winds with slight
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea W of 70W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds over the central and
eastern Caribbean will become easterly by this evening as Erin=20
continues to lift northward away from the region. Moderate to=20
fresh trade winds and moderate seas are then expected tonight=20
through the weekend, increasing to strong speeds over the south-=20
central Caribbean Wed evening through Sat as high pressure builds=20
in the wake of Erin. A tropical wave located over the central=20
tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of=20
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions=20
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a=20
tropical depression could form toward the end of the week or this=20
weekend. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at
about 20 mph and approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on=20
Friday.
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for further information on
Hurricane Erin.

Hurricane Erin is centered near 26.1N 72.5W at 19/1800 UTC or
550 nm SW of Bermuda, moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Aside from Erin, a frontal boundary=20
moving across the north- central waters continues to generate=20
scattered moderate convection N of 27N between 46W and 60.5W.=20
Moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are ahead of the front=20
along with moderate seas. The remainder central and eastern=20
subtropical waters are under the influence of a broad ridge=20
anchored by a 1026 mb high. The pressure gradient between the=20
ridge and two tropical waves S of 25N is supporting moderate to=20
fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas over these regions, except=20
for locally strong NE winds across the Canary Islands where seas=20
are 7 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, Erin will move to 27.0N 73.1W this evening,=20
29.1N 73.9W Wed morning, 31.4N 73.6W Wed evening, 33.7N 72.4W Thu=20
morning, 35.6N 70.0W Thu evening, and 37.3N 66.6W Fri morning.=20
Erin will change little in intensity as it moves to near 40.3N=20
58.7W early Sat. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas,
Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are=20
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.=20
Otherwise, a tropical wave located over the central tropical=20
Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for=20
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression=20
could form toward the end of the week or this weekend. This system
should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph and=20
approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday.

$$
KRV

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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081=20
AXNT20 KNHC 192107
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Aug 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin is centered near 26.6N 72.7W at 19/2100 UTC or
530 nm SW of Bermuda, moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are around 40 ft. Seas 8 ft or
greater are covering much of the western Atlantic west of 65W.=20
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 25N to 28N
between 70W and 74W. Scattered moderate to strong is elsewhere
from 20N to 31N between 65W and 75W. On the forecast track, the=20
center of Erin will pass to the east of the NE Bahamas tonight,=20
and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east=20
coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. Swells generated by=20
Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the=20
United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days,=20
producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Beachgoers in=20
those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local=20
authorities, and beach warning flags.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!5SylXTjdBpCBTZ7F1CUEwmcJYKgqGXazcuFqTfiISBCFP0CFh41dCrf7e3IDh6j2C= iOlHnHlEW5VGSxcYaMnfnzSCSI$ and the latest Erin=20
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://urldefense.com/v3/__ht= tp://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5SylXTjdBpCBTZ7F1CUEwmcJYKgqGXazcuFqTfiI= SBCFP0CFh41dCrf7e3IDh6j2CiOlHnHlEW5VGSxcYaMnuwRfcO4$=20=20
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 23W from 06N to 19N, moving=20
west at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is=20
noted from 08N to 15N between 22W and 29W. Environmental=20
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development=20
over the next couple of days as the system moves westward at=20
around 15 mph. Towards the end of this week, this system could=20
encounter a less favorable environment, limiting its development=20
chances after that time. There is a low chance for development.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W from 04N to 20N, moving=20
west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted=20
from 10N to 18N between 39W and 45W. Environmental conditions=20
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a=20
tropical depression could form toward the end of the week or this=20
weekend. This system should move westward to west- northwestward=20
at about 20 mph and approach the vicinity of the northern Leeward=20
Islands on Friday. There is a medium chance for development within
the next 7 days.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W S of 19N, moving west at=20
10 to 15 kt. There is no convection associated with this wave at=20
the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and extends SW
to near 15N30W to 07N49W. Aside from the convection noted in the=20
the tropical waves section, scattered moderate and isolated=20
strong convection is from 04N to 10N between 46W and 51W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1015 mb
high centered near 23.5N95W. A weak pressure gradient over the
area is supporting light to gentle winds, and smooth to slight=20
seas across the area waters.=20

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters the=20
remainder of the week supporting light to gentle winds with slight
seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for further information on
Hurricane Erin.

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean waters due
to Hurricane Erin north of the area. Gentle to moderate SE winds,
and slight to moderate seas are across the eastern Caribbean.=20
Light to gentle winds with smooth to slight seas prevail elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea W of 70W.

For the forecast, Hurricane Erin is N of area near 26.6N 72.7W at
5 PM EDT, and is moving north-northwest at 9 kt. The typical=20
trade wind flow will return on Wed as Erin continues to lift=20
northward away from the region. Winds will also increase to fresh=20
to strong speeds across the south-central Caribbean Wed evening=20
through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of Erin. A=20
tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and=20
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for=20
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression=20
could form toward the end of the week or this weekend. This system
should move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt and=20
approach the vicinity of the northern Leeward Islands on Friday.=20
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for further information on
Hurricane Erin.

Winds and seas associated with Erin are dominating the waters W of
65W. Aside from Erin, a frontal boundary extends over the=20
northern waters from 31N47W to 30N50W to 31N53W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front. Moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft are in the vicinity of the front.
Otherwise, a ridge dominates the waters N of 20N, anchored by a=20
1025 mb high centered near 37N25W. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 5-7 ft generally prevails elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, Erin will move to 28.1N 73.4W Wed morning,=20
30.3N 73.8W Wed afternoon, 32.6N 73.1W Thu morning, 34.9N 71.3W=20
Thu afternoon, 36.8N 68.3W Fri morning, and 38.4N 64.7W Fri=20
afternoon. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves to=20
near 41.0N 56.0W Sat afternoon. Swells generated by Erin will=20
affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States,=20
and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough=20
ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and=20
rip currents. Otherwise, a tropical wave located over the central=20
tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of=20
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions=20
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a=20
tropical depression could form toward the end of the week or this=20
weekend. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 kt and approach the vicinity of the northern Leeward=20
Islands on Friday.=20

$$
AL

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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695=20
AXNT20 KNHC 200623
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Aug 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin is centered near 27.7N 73.0W at 20/0300 UTC or 470
nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It is moving NNW at 10=20
kt and the estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum=20
sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are=20
around 43 ft near the center. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering=20
much of the western Atlantic west of 65W. Heavy rain and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near the center from 27N to 29N=20
between 71W and 74W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen farther north from 29N to 31N between 70W and=20
74W, and farther southeast from 24N to 28N between 70W and 72W.=20
On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to the east of
the northeast Bahamas tonight, and then move over the western=20
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and=20
Thursday. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas,=20
Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada=20
during the next several days, producing life-threatening surf and
rip currents. Beach goers in those areas should follow advice=20
from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!8B7OHV5XT0Y2xcoHFpvb4FKc4pimSUjA9gSUBwlFTm0VcVVJ0fZboz7lWZkDROk7-= hB5lFGobqienmSFHyAs0XDfv0s$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!8B7OHV5XT0Y2xcoHFpvb4FKc4pimSUjA9gSUBwlFTm0VcVVJ0fZboz7lWZkDROk7-= hB5lFGobqienmSFHyAslAVDWcE$ for more details.

For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8B7O= HV5XT0Y2xcoHFpvb4FKc4pimSUjA9gSUBwlFTm0VcVVJ0fZboz7lWZkDROk7-hB5lFGobqienmS= FHyAssmnTg44$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 19N
southward across the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving west at=20
at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from=20
08N to 15N between 22W and 29W. Environmental conditions appear=20
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical=20
depression could form late this week or over the weekend while it=20
moves near or the north of the northern Leeward Islands.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 21N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is present from 13N to 19N between 37W and 48W. Environmental=20
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development=20
over the next day or so while the system moves westward.

A third tropical wave is near 61W from 19N southward across the
Lesser Antilles to near the Venezuela/Guyana border. It is moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection=20
associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast
north of Nouakchott, then meanders southwestward through 14N30W=20
to a 1012 mb low near 09N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated=20
strong convection is flaring up south of the monsoon trough near=20
the coast of southern Senegal, Guinea and Guinea Bissau. Similar
convection is also seen near the 1012 mb low from 05N to 11N
between 45W and 52W.


...GULF OF AMERICA...

A modest surface ridge continue to support light to gentle winds
and 1 to 2 ft seas across the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters the=20
remainder of the week supporting light to gentle winds with slight
seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent NE winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the lee of Cuba. A weaker than usual pressure=20
gradient allows mostly gentle winds and moderate seas of across=20
the basin, except for the south-central basin where moderate to=20
fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft exist.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will begin to increase=20
across most of the Caribbean and Tropical North Atlantic now that
Hurricane Erin, presently located about 510 nm west-southwest of=20
Bermuda, continues to pull farther to the north-northwest of the=20
region while central Atlantic high pressure builds west-=20
southwestward in its wake. As a result, trades are expected to=20
increase to fresh to strong across the south-central Caribbean=20
beginning Wed afternoon and continue through Fri as high pressure=20
builds in the wake of Erin. Meanwhile, a tropical wave located=20
over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad=20
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental=20
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this=20
system, and a tropical depression could form late this week or=20
over the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the=20
northern Leeward Islands..=20
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
further information on Hurricane Erin.

A surface trough to the south of a stationary front is causing
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 28N between
43W and 58W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A
subtropical ridge extending southwestward from a 1026 mb Azores
High is supporting gentle to moderate ESE to ENE winds and 4 to 7
ft seas north of 24N between 35W and 65W. Farther west outside the
direct influence of Hurricane Erin, fresh to strong cyclonic winds
and seas of 8 to 14 ft are present north of 20N between 65W and
the Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic
from 10N to 20N/24N, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and seas at
5 to 7 ft exist. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6
to 9 ft in mixed large swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic
west of 35W.

For the forecast, Erin will gradually strengthen as it moves to=20
near 29.3N 73.5W Wed morning, near 31.6N 73.4W Wed evening with=20
maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt, to near 33.8N 72.2W=20
Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, then
begin to weaken as it moves well north-northeast of the region=20
through Sunday. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas,
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States during the next=20
several days. Otherwise, a tropical wave located over the central=20
tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of=20
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions=20
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a=20
tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend=20
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward=20
Islands.=20

$$

Chan

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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755=20
AXNT20 KNHC 200623
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Aug 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin is centered near 27.7N 73.0W at 20/0300 UTC or 470
nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It is moving NNW at 10=20
kt and the estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum=20
sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are=20
around 43 ft near the center. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering=20
much of the western Atlantic west of 65W. Heavy rain and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near the center from 27N to 29N=20
between 71W and 74W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen farther north from 29N to 31N between 70W and=20
74W, and farther southeast from 24N to 28N between 70W and 72W.=20
On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to the east of
the northeast Bahamas tonight, and then move over the western=20
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and=20
Thursday. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas,=20
Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada=20
during the next several days, producing life-threatening surf and
rip currents. Beach goers in those areas should follow advice=20
from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4PmKXwbAwmgQzx2LqZBJSVvWNnfPVG2AcDY98IoZpl0o66PM6T1rb9RqdibV1AOOM= w03Nm69tb40GdUfil_gI1BeBHw$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4PmKXwbAwmgQzx2LqZBJSVvWNnfPVG2AcDY98IoZpl0o66PM6T1rb9RqdibV1AOOM= w03Nm69tb40GdUfil_gTjabPwE$ for more details.

For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4PmK= XwbAwmgQzx2LqZBJSVvWNnfPVG2AcDY98IoZpl0o66PM6T1rb9RqdibV1AOOMw03Nm69tb40GdU= fil_gVfXADEA$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 19N
southward across the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving west at=20
at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from=20
08N to 15N between 22W and 29W. Environmental conditions appear=20
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical=20
depression could form late this week or over the weekend while it=20
moves near or the north of the northern Leeward Islands.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 21N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is present from 13N to 19N between 37W and 48W. Environmental=20
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development=20
over the next day or so while the system moves westward.

A third tropical wave is near 61W from 19N southward across the
Lesser Antilles to near the Venezuela/Guyana border. It is moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection=20
associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast
north of Nouakchott, then meanders southwestward through 14N30W=20
to a 1012 mb low near 09N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated=20
strong convection is flaring up south of the monsoon trough near=20
the coast of southern Senegal, Guinea and Guinea Bissau. Similar
convection is also seen near the 1012 mb low from 05N to 11N
between 45W and 52W.


...GULF OF AMERICA...

A modest surface ridge continue to support light to gentle winds
and 1 to 2 ft seas across the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters the=20
remainder of the week supporting light to gentle winds with slight
seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent NE winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the lee of Cuba. A weaker than usual pressure=20
gradient allows mostly gentle winds and moderate seas of across=20
the basin, except for the south-central basin where moderate to=20
fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft exist.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will begin to increase=20
across most of the Caribbean and Tropical North Atlantic now that
Hurricane Erin, presently located about 510 nm west-southwest of=20
Bermuda, continues to pull farther to the north-northwest of the=20
region while central Atlantic high pressure builds west-=20
southwestward in its wake. As a result, trades are expected to=20
increase to fresh to strong across the south-central Caribbean=20
beginning Wed afternoon and continue through Fri as high pressure=20
builds in the wake of Erin. Meanwhile, a tropical wave located=20
over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad=20
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental=20
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this=20
system, and a tropical depression could form late this week or=20
over the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the=20
northern Leeward Islands..=20
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
further information on Hurricane Erin.

A surface trough to the south of a stationary front is causing
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 28N between
43W and 58W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A
subtropical ridge extending southwestward from a 1026 mb Azores
High is supporting gentle to moderate ESE to ENE winds and 4 to 7
ft seas north of 24N between 35W and 65W. Farther west outside the
direct influence of Hurricane Erin, fresh to strong cyclonic winds
and seas of 8 to 14 ft are present north of 20N between 65W and
the Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic
from 10N to 20N/24N, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and seas at
5 to 7 ft exist. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6
to 9 ft in mixed large swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic
west of 35W.

For the forecast, Erin will gradually strengthen as it moves to=20
near 29.3N 73.5W Wed morning, near 31.6N 73.4W Wed evening with=20
maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt, to near 33.8N 72.2W=20
Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, then
begin to weaken as it moves well north-northeast of the region=20
through Sunday. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas,
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States during the next=20
several days. Otherwise, a tropical wave located over the central=20
tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of=20
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions=20
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a=20
tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend=20
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward=20
Islands.=20

$$

Chan

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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659=20
AXNT20 KNHC 201043
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Aug 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin is centered near 28.9N 73.3W, or about 480 nm=20
west-southwest of Bermuda at 20/0900 UTC, moving NNW at 11 kt.=20
Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained=20
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 44=20
ft near the center. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering much of the=20
western Atlantic west of 65W. Latest satellite imagery shows
reveals that Erin's overall cloud pattern has improved compared to
yesterday's appearance. Numerous banding features have become=20
apparent this morning. They consist of numerous moderate to strong
convection over an area from 26N to 32N between 69W and 76W. A=20
turn toward the north and north-northeast is expected today and=20
tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast and=20
east-northeast by Thu and Fri. On the forecast track, the center=20
of Erin will move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east=20
coast and Bermuda today through early Fri, and then pass south of=20
Atlantic Canada Fri and Sat. Swells generated by Erin will affect=20
the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and=20
Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean=20
conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip=20
currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!6toowl9Ec_tGK5ESUqDURUnxRVkEp0G6Vtz19H6XcLPgLXt0f-uq8ir2eM6HX5dBz= JAyifljrciCXI-5gomLaDfA4pc$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!6toowl9Ec_tGK5ESUqDURUnxRVkEp0G6Vtz19H6XcLPgLXt0f-uq8ir2eM6HX5dBz= JAyifljrciCXI-5gomLpbfH1zk$ for more details.

For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6too= wl9Ec_tGK5ESUqDURUnxRVkEp0G6Vtz19H6XcLPgLXt0f-uq8ir2eM6HX5dBzJAyifljrciCXI-= 5gomLqcDZwbg$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 26W from=20
05N to 19N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous moderate to=20
strong convection is seen from 08N to 15N between the wave and=20
31W. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for=20
additional development over the next day or so while the system=20
moves westward at around 15 mph. By the end of the week,=20
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for=20
further development.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 43W from 05N=20
to 21N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Disorganized scattered
showers and thunderstorms are west of the wave from 07N to 18N=20
between 44W and 51W. Environmental conditions appear conducive=20
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression=20
could form late this week or over the weekend while it moves near=20
or the north of the northern Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave recently entered the eastern Caribbean Sea, and=20
is along 62W south of 20N to inland northeast Venezuela. It is=20
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is present with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and extends=20 southwestward to 13N24W and northwestward to 15N35W, then
southwestward to low pressure near 09N47W 1011 mb and to near
10N54W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough=20
between 45W-48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Fairly weak high pressure is supporting light to gentle winds and
1 to 2 ft seas across the entire basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the
area through the period allowing for generally light to gentle=20
winds and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weaker than usual pressure gradient due to Erin being north of=20
the basin is maintaining mostly gentle winds and moderate seas of
across the basin, except for the south-central basin where=20
moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will begin to increase=20
across most of the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic as Hurricane=20
Erin continues to pull farther away from the region, and at the=20
same time central Atlantic high pressure builds west-=20
southwestward toward the Bahamas. As a result, trades are expected
to increase to fresh to strong speeds across the south-central=20
Caribbean beginning this afternoon and continue through Fri.=20
Meanwhile, a tropical wave located over the central tropical=20
tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of=20
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions=20
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a=20
tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend=20
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward=20
Islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on=20
Hurricane Erin.

A cold front extends from near 31N48W to 30N55W. A trough is to
its southeast extending from near 31N45W to 27N51W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is seen 30N to 31N between 40W and 54W.
A weak 1018 mb high is analyzed at 27N58W. Rather weak high=20
pressure covers the rest of the basin. The related gradient is=20
supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds along with seas=20
of 4 to 7 ft seas north of 24N between 35W and 65W. Farther west=20
outside the direct influence of Hurricane Erin, fresh to strong=20
cyclonic winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft are present north of 20N=20
between 65W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the=20
tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N/24N, moderate to fresh northeast=20
to east-southeast winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are present.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in long-
period swell remain for pretty the remainder of the Atlantic
west of about 35W.

For the forecast, Erin will strengthen slightly as it moves to=20
near 30.6N 73.5W this afternoon, to north of the area near 33.0N=20
72.8W late tonight and well north-northeast of the region through=20
as it begins to slowly weaken and eventually becoming post-=20
tropical. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas,=20
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States during the next=20
several days. Otherwise, a tropical wave located over the central=20
tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear=20
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical=20
depression could form late this week or over the weekend while it=20
moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.

$$
Aguirre

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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794=20
AXNT20 KNHC 201757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Aug 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1757UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin is centered near 30.6N 73.6W at 20/1800 UTC or
460 nm W of Bermuda, moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95
kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 47 ft near the=20
center. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering much of the western=20
Atlantic west of 61W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
depicted from 24N to 34N between 68W and 78W. A turn toward the=20
north and north-northeast is expected today and tonight, followed=20
by a faster motion toward the northeast and east-northeast by Thu=20
and Fri. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over=20
the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today
through early Fri, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Fri and
Sat. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,=20
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during=20
the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected=20
to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult=20
products from your local weather forecast office for more=20
information.=20

Eastern Atlantic (AL99):=20
A tropical wave (AL99) has its axis near 29.1W from 05N to 19N,
moving westward at about 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is seen from 08N to 15N between 26W and 34W.
Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for
additional development over the next day or so while the system
moves west-southwestward at around 15 kt and a short-lived=20
tropical depression could form. By the end of the week,=20
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for=20
further development. The wave has a medium chance of becoming a=20
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
=20
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!6G50B4HfAjGXAllbict1dhSNacyYfLRGeO5zPPOCEzQcGhH9xKol5g4nfQmozM1c1= Fk3qxztZniRGOp9OORYs_F4LJc$ and=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!6G50B4HfAjGXAllbict1dhSNacyYfLRGeO5zPPOCEzQcGhH9xKol5g4nfQmozM1c1= Fk3qxztZniRGOp9OORY_oJlIRw$ for more details.

For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory and
for the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__= http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6G50B4HfAjGXAllbict1dhSNacyYfLRGeO5zPP= OCEzQcGhH9xKol5g4nfQmozM1c1Fk3qxztZniRGOp9OORYPKhr8I8$=20
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 05.5N
to 21N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Disorganized scattered
showers and thunderstorms are west of the wave from 07N to 19N=20
between 45W and 52W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for=20
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could=20
form by this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the=20
northern Leeward Islands. This system has a low chance of=20
becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a medium=20
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days.=20

A tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea has been relocated based on
wave diagnostics and satellite imagery. The wave axis is now along
69W south of 20N to inland northwest Venezuela. No significant=20
convection is present with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and extends=20 southwestward to 11N30W and northwestward to 14N36.5W. The convection
across the area is related to the tropical wave (AL99).=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are found across the northern=20
Gulf. Otherwise, fairly weak high pressure is supporting light to=20
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas across the entire basin.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to SE winds will=20
be possible over the south-central Gulf each afternoon and evening
through this weekend as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and
slight seas will prevail over the remainder of the basin as weak=20
high pressure dominates the region.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information=20
regarding a wave moving across the Caribbean.=20

A weaker than usual pressure gradient due to Erin being north of=20
the basin is maintaining moderate to fresh winds east of 78W with=20
seas 3 to 6 ft. west of 78W, light to gentle winds prevail with=20
seas 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will=20
occur over the central and eastern Caribbean today. E trade winds=20
will increase to fresh to locally strong speeds tonight and=20
continue through Fri as a strengthening pressure gradient develops
between low pressure over Colombia and building high pressure in=20
the wake of Hurricane Erin. Locally rough seas will be possible=20
near strong winds. Elsewhere, fresh to occasionally strong E to SE
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Thu through this=20
weekend. Looking ahead, a tropical wave located over the central=20
tropical Atlantic will encounter environmental conditions=20
conducive for gradual tropical development, and a tropical=20
depression could form late this week or over the weekend while it=20
moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands. There=20
is a low chance of development within the next 48 hours, and a=20
medium chance within the next 7 days.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on=20
Hurricane Erin.

A cold front extends from near 31N43W to 29N50W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is seen north of 29N between 44W and 52W.
Moderate to fresh SW winds with seas 5 to 8 ft are found along=20
this front. High pressure north of the area covers the rest of the
basin. The related gradient is supporting gentle to moderate=20
easterly winds along with seas of 4 to 7 ft seas north of 20N=20
between 35W and 65W. Farther west outside the direct influence of=20
Hurricane Erin, fresh to strong cyclonic winds and seas of 8 to 14
ft are present north of 20N between 65W and the Florida/southern=20
Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 14N to 24N, moderate
to fresh NE to E winds along with seas of 5 to 8 ft are present.=20
Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas in long-=20
period swell prevail south of 14N. Fresh to locally strong NE=20
winds prevail north of 23N and east of 35W. Seas in these waters=20
are 6 to 8 ft.=20

For the forecast, Erin is expected to turn toward the north-
northeast is expected later today and tonight, followed by a=20
faster motion toward the northeast and east-northeast by Thursday=20
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move=20
over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda=20
today through early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada
Friday and Saturday. Swells generated by Erin will affect the=20
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during=20
the next several days. Looking ahead, a tropical wave located over
the central tropical Atlantic will encounter environmental=20
conditions conducive for gradual tropical development, and a=20
tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend=20
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward=20
Islands. There is a low chance of development within the next 48=20
hours, and a medium chance within the next 7 days. Elsewhere, a=20
tropical wave located to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands=20
will encounter environmental conditions marginally favorable for=20
additional development over the next day or so while the system=20
moves westward at around 15 mph and a short-lived tropical=20
depression could form. By the end of the week, environmental=20
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further=20
development. There is a medium chance of development within the=20
next 48 hours and the next 7 days.=20

$$
KRV

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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962=20
AXNT20 KNHC 201757
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Aug 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1757UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin is centered near 30.6N 73.6W at 20/1800 UTC or
460 nm W of Bermuda, moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95
kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 47 ft near the=20
center. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering much of the western=20
Atlantic west of 61W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
depicted from 24N to 34N between 68W and 78W. A turn toward the=20
north and north-northeast is expected today and tonight, followed=20
by a faster motion toward the northeast and east-northeast by Thu=20
and Fri. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over=20
the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today
through early Fri, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Fri and
Sat. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,=20
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during=20
the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected=20
to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult=20
products from your local weather forecast office for more=20
information.=20

Eastern Atlantic (AL99):=20
A tropical wave (AL99) has its axis near 29.1W from 05N to 19N,
moving westward at about 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is seen from 08N to 15N between 26W and 34W.
Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for
additional development over the next day or so while the system
moves west-southwestward at around 15 kt and a short-lived=20
tropical depression could form. By the end of the week,=20
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for=20
further development. The wave has a medium chance of becoming a=20
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
=20
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4Y8Ptws5cpYOHwl__zpbxluB3J_WgD0bUHOrgoRhgkvV6E8BU1X_rIv86RZVARMkc= bsihKqn34c5Q_9V18HzSKrsUhk$ and=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4Y8Ptws5cpYOHwl__zpbxluB3J_WgD0bUHOrgoRhgkvV6E8BU1X_rIv86RZVARMkc= bsihKqn34c5Q_9V18Hz9fMAq6w$ for more details.

For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory and
for the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__= http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Y8Ptws5cpYOHwl__zpbxluB3J_WgD0bUHOrgo= RhgkvV6E8BU1X_rIv86RZVARMkcbsihKqn34c5Q_9V18Hz3RKjI3U$=20
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 05.5N
to 21N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Disorganized scattered
showers and thunderstorms are west of the wave from 07N to 19N=20
between 45W and 52W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for=20
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could=20
form by this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the=20
northern Leeward Islands. This system has a low chance of=20
becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a medium=20
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days.=20

A tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea has been relocated based on
wave diagnostics and satellite imagery. The wave axis is now along
69W south of 20N to inland northwest Venezuela. No significant=20
convection is present with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and extends=20 southwestward to 11N30W and northwestward to 14N36.5W. The convection
across the area is related to the tropical wave (AL99).=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are found across the northern=20
Gulf. Otherwise, fairly weak high pressure is supporting light to=20
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas across the entire basin.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to SE winds will=20
be possible over the south-central Gulf each afternoon and evening
through this weekend as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and
slight seas will prevail over the remainder of the basin as weak=20
high pressure dominates the region.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information=20
regarding a wave moving across the Caribbean.=20

A weaker than usual pressure gradient due to Erin being north of=20
the basin is maintaining moderate to fresh winds east of 78W with=20
seas 3 to 6 ft. west of 78W, light to gentle winds prevail with=20
seas 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will=20
occur over the central and eastern Caribbean today. E trade winds=20
will increase to fresh to locally strong speeds tonight and=20
continue through Fri as a strengthening pressure gradient develops
between low pressure over Colombia and building high pressure in=20
the wake of Hurricane Erin. Locally rough seas will be possible=20
near strong winds. Elsewhere, fresh to occasionally strong E to SE
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Thu through this=20
weekend. Looking ahead, a tropical wave located over the central=20
tropical Atlantic will encounter environmental conditions=20
conducive for gradual tropical development, and a tropical=20
depression could form late this week or over the weekend while it=20
moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands. There=20
is a low chance of development within the next 48 hours, and a=20
medium chance within the next 7 days.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on=20
Hurricane Erin.

A cold front extends from near 31N43W to 29N50W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is seen north of 29N between 44W and 52W.
Moderate to fresh SW winds with seas 5 to 8 ft are found along=20
this front. High pressure north of the area covers the rest of the
basin. The related gradient is supporting gentle to moderate=20
easterly winds along with seas of 4 to 7 ft seas north of 20N=20
between 35W and 65W. Farther west outside the direct influence of=20
Hurricane Erin, fresh to strong cyclonic winds and seas of 8 to 14
ft are present north of 20N between 65W and the Florida/southern=20
Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 14N to 24N, moderate
to fresh NE to E winds along with seas of 5 to 8 ft are present.=20
Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas in long-=20
period swell prevail south of 14N. Fresh to locally strong NE=20
winds prevail north of 23N and east of 35W. Seas in these waters=20
are 6 to 8 ft.=20

For the forecast, Erin is expected to turn toward the north-
northeast is expected later today and tonight, followed by a=20
faster motion toward the northeast and east-northeast by Thursday=20
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move=20
over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda=20
today through early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada
Friday and Saturday. Swells generated by Erin will affect the=20
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during=20
the next several days. Looking ahead, a tropical wave located over
the central tropical Atlantic will encounter environmental=20
conditions conducive for gradual tropical development, and a=20
tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend=20
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward=20
Islands. There is a low chance of development within the next 48=20
hours, and a medium chance within the next 7 days. Elsewhere, a=20
tropical wave located to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands=20
will encounter environmental conditions marginally favorable for=20
additional development over the next day or so while the system=20
moves westward at around 15 mph and a short-lived tropical=20
depression could form. By the end of the week, environmental=20
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further=20
development. There is a medium chance of development within the=20
next 48 hours and the next 7 days.=20

$$
KRV

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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550=20
AXNT20 KNHC 202120
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Aug 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin is centered near 31.2N 73.6W at 20/2100 UTC or
450 nm W of Bermuda, moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95
kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 48 ft near the=20
center. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering much of the discussion=20
waters N of 23N and W of 65W. Numerous moderate to strong=20
convection is noted from 29N to 32N between 71W and 74W. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is elsewhere from 25N to
37N between 66W and 77W. Erin will move northward between Bermuda
and the U.S. east coast over the next day or so. After that, the=20
system should accelerate northeastward and east- northeastward.=20
Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the=20
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the=20
next several days, producing life-threatening surf and rip=20
currents along the beaches during the next several days.=20
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,=20
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!_lJFgfAcFWpIEAyJA8gFLBzbQyZzoUnUOJkd1UAi2fpl83xrRnLpYZATzejkz9KEu= Dp0baVokf7NqwUX67nO56FXB50$ and the latest Erin=20
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://urldefense.com/v3/__ht= tp://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_lJFgfAcFWpIEAyJA8gFLBzbQyZzoUnUOJkd1UAi= 2fpl83xrRnLpYZATzejkz9KEuDp0baVokf7NqwUX67nOBPjAZ18$=20=20
for more details.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Satellite-derived surface wind data from earlier today revealed
that a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands lacks a
closed surface circulation. Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for additional development over the next day
or so while the system moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph
and a short-lived tropical depression could form. By the end of
the week, environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for further development.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 30W from 05N to 19N, moving=20
westward at about 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
seen from 07N to 14N between 27W and 35W. Environmental=20
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development=20
over the next day or so while the system moves west-southwestward=20
at around 15 mph and a short-lived tropical depression could form.
By the end of the week, environmental conditions are expected to=20
become unfavorable for further development. This system (AL99)=20
has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W from=20
05N to 21N, moving westward around 15 kt. The wave is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this=20
system, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while
it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.=20
This system has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the
next 48 hours and a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone=20
in the next 7 days.=20

A Caribbean tropical wave Caribbean Sea has its axis near 70W S of
20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is=20
present with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W, and extends=20
to 11N29W and to 15N41W. Aside from convection noted in the
tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 14N to 19N between 36W and 41W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure gradient is resulting in light to gentle winds=20
and 1 to 2 ft seas across the entire basin.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to SE winds will=20
be possible over the south-central Gulf each afternoon and evening
through this weekend as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward. Otherwise, gentle to locally=20
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail over the remainder of=20
the basin as weak high pressure dominates the region.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A more typical tradewind pattern is returning to the Caribbean as
Hurricane Erin moves further northward and a ridge builds N of the
area. Moderate to fresh winds are over the south central=20
Caribbean with moderate winds elsewhere E of 75W. Light to gentle=20
winds are over the waters W of 75W. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range=20
over the south central Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere E of 75W.
Seas of 1-2 ft prevail W of 75W.=20

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and locally
rough seas are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean=20
tonight through Fri as a strengthening pressure gradient develops=20
between low pressure over Colombia and building high pressure in=20
the wake of Hurricane Erin in the western Atlantic. Elsewhere,=20
fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf=20
of Honduras Thu through this weekend. A tropical wave located=20
several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands will encounter=20 environmental conditions conducive for gradual tropical=20
development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend=20
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward=20
Islands. There is a low chance of development within the next 48=20
hours, and a medium chance within the next 7 days.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on=20
Hurricane Erin.

Seas greater than 8 ft, and winds 20 kt or greater associated with=20
Erin are covering the waters N of 23N and W of 65W. Elsewhere, a
frontal boundary enters the area near 31N41W and extends to=20
29N50W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the=20
boundary. Moderate winds, and seas of 6 ft, are in the vicinity of
the frontal boundary. Elsewhere, high pressure ridging dominates=20
the waters E of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-8 ft,
generally prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Erin is centered just N of the area, and will
continue to shift further away from the forecast waters. Swells=20
generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east=20
coast of the United States during the next several days. A=20
tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward=20
Islands will encounter environmental conditions conducive for=20
gradual tropical development, and a tropical depression could form
by this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the=20
northern Leeward Islands. There is a low chance of development=20
within the next 48 hours, and a medium chance within the next 7=20
days. Elsewhere, a tropical wave located several hundred miles=20
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands will encounter environmental=20
conditions marginally favorable for additional tropical=20
development over the next day or so while the system moves west-=20 southwestward at around 15 mph and a short- lived tropical=20
depression could form. By the end of the week, environmental=20
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further=20
development. There is a medium chance of development within the=20
next 48 hours and the next 7 days.=20

$$
AL

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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442=20
AXNT20 KNHC 210631
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Aug 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin in the western Atlantic:
Hurricane Erin is centered near 32.8N 73.1W at 21/0300 UTC or 185
nm SE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It is moving N at 14 kt
and the estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Maximum=20
sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are=20
near 49 ft near the center. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering=20
much of the western Atlantic waters north of 23N and west of 65W.

Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the
center from 32N to 34N between 71W and 73W, and farther north from=20
from 34N to 35N between 70W and 73W. Erin will turn toward the=20 north-northeast later tonight, then toward the northeast and
east-northeast with a decrease in forward speed Thursday and
Friday. Erin will pass between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast=20
tonight and Thursday before moving into the northern Atlantic=20
afterward. Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect the=20
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and=20
Atlantic Canada during the next several days, producing life-=20
threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches during the=20
next several days. Beach goers in those areas should follow=20
advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning=20
flags.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!6_I6rH_wtR1IFB2o31a-Mnoq5mBJ4nbR71AuQd2QaGG8L0C2XGmVHuWhy-9EZlRrl= pIXwYkiX78oAF0FKsWXLmYbpYk$ and=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!6_I6rH_wtR1IFB2o31a-Mnoq5mBJ4nbR71AuQd2QaGG8L0C2XGmVHuWhy-9EZlRrl= pIXwYkiX78oAF0FKsWXoOi3wcg$ for more
information. For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory, visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!D= Z3fjg!6_I6rH_wtR1IFB2o31a-Mnoq5mBJ4nbR71AuQd2QaGG8L0C2XGmVHuWhy-9EZlRrlpIXw= YkiX78oAF0FKsWXpzhxi00$ for more details.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Latest Satellite scatterometer data suggest a low-level
circulation has formed near 10.5N31.4W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 12N between 31W and
38W. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for
additional development over the next day or so while the system
moves west-southwestward. There is a medium chance of formation
for the next 2 to 7 days. PLease read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cy= clones/?atl__;!!DZ3fjg!6_I6rH_wtR1IFB2o31a-Mnoq5mBJ4nbR71AuQd2QaGG8L0C2XGmV= HuWhy-9EZlRrlpIXwYkiX78oAF0FKsWXOqjJdgc$ for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 19N southward
through a 1012 mb low (AL99), and moving west around 10 kt. Please
read the Special Features section above about the convection.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 21N
southwestward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring ahead of the wave from 12N to 21N between
50W and 56W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from western
Dominican Republic southward to the Colombia-Venezuela border. It
is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen near the Colombia-Venezuela border.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Western Sahara and Mauritania, then curves southwestward through=20
AL99 mentioned in the Special Features section to 15N40W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of the=20
monsoon trough near the coast of Senegal, Gambia and Guinea-
Bissau.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms at the
Caribbean waters near Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A modest surface ridge is dominating the entire Gulf with light to
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
area through the period maintaining relatively quiet marine=20
conditions. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to southeast winds
will be possible over the south-central Gulf each afternoon and=20
evening through this weekend as a trough develops over the Yucatan
Peninsula and moves westward.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical ridge building south of Hurricane Erin in the
northwestern Atlantic is resuming a trade-wind flow across much=20
of the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and=20
Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh
to locally strong easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident=20
at the south- central basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and=20
seas of 4 to 6 ft is noted across the north-central and eastern=20
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft=20
prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Gulf of=20
Honduras.

For the forecast, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will
maintain fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas for the
central and eastern basin tonight through Fri. Elsewhere, fresh=20
to occasionally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of=20
Honduras beginning on Thu. Long-period NE to N swell from=20
Hurricane Erin will begin to impact the Tropical North Atlantic=20
Offshore Zones from late Fri through Mon. Looking ahead, a=20
tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward=20
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and=20
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for=20
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is=20
likely to form by this weekend while it moves near or to the north
of the northern Leeward Islands.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on=20
Hurricane Erin and Invest Area AL99.

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at
the beginning for convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the
direct influence of Hurricane Erin, fresh to near-gale SW to W
winds and 10 to 16 ft seas in large swell from Erin are present=20
north of 25N between 55W and 76W. Otherwise, a subtropical ridge=20
near 26N is supporting gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas=20
of 4 to 7 ft dominate north of 24N between 35W and the=20
Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N
to 24N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, gentle to=20
moderate with locally fresh NE to SSE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas=20
exist. For the rest of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to=20
moderate with locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in
mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast, Erin will continue to pull NNE far away from=20
the region through the end of the week while slowly weakening.=20
Long-period northerly swells generated by Erin will affect just=20
about the entire forecast domain through the next few days. In the
wake of Erin, central Atlantic high pressure will build WSW=20
toward the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through the=20
period. Looking ahead, a tropical wave located several hundred=20
miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing a broad area of=20
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions=20
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a=20
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while it=20
moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.=20

$$

Chan

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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576=20
AXNT20 KNHC 210631
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Aug 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Erin in the western Atlantic:
Hurricane Erin is centered near 32.8N 73.1W at 21/0300 UTC or 185
nm SE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It is moving N at 14 kt
and the estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Maximum=20
sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are=20
near 49 ft near the center. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering=20
much of the western Atlantic waters north of 23N and west of 65W.

Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the
center from 32N to 34N between 71W and 73W, and farther north from=20
from 34N to 35N between 70W and 73W. Erin will turn toward the=20 north-northeast later tonight, then toward the northeast and
east-northeast with a decrease in forward speed Thursday and
Friday. Erin will pass between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast=20
tonight and Thursday before moving into the northern Atlantic=20
afterward. Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect the=20
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and=20
Atlantic Canada during the next several days, producing life-=20
threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches during the=20
next several days. Beach goers in those areas should follow=20
advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning=20
flags.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-H3BST83QA0YgKU6blhAMDW5b_8TLFoc9pZ5oUpe0rQeN_a6JKBBaTxEBlDy9BZV9= FQFBshOog70lsFP4bZcFgDQFpI$ and=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-H3BST83QA0YgKU6blhAMDW5b_8TLFoc9pZ5oUpe0rQeN_a6JKBBaTxEBlDy9BZV9= FQFBshOog70lsFP4bZcu7eIA98$ for more
information. For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory, visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!D= Z3fjg!-H3BST83QA0YgKU6blhAMDW5b_8TLFoc9pZ5oUpe0rQeN_a6JKBBaTxEBlDy9BZV9FQFB= shOog70lsFP4bZcEzPW-U8$ for more details.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Latest Satellite scatterometer data suggest a low-level
circulation has formed near 10.5N31.4W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 12N between 31W and
38W. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for
additional development over the next day or so while the system
moves west-southwestward. There is a medium chance of formation
for the next 2 to 7 days. PLease read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cy= clones/?atl__;!!DZ3fjg!-H3BST83QA0YgKU6blhAMDW5b_8TLFoc9pZ5oUpe0rQeN_a6JKBB= aTxEBlDy9BZV9FQFBshOog70lsFP4bZcoBLkd6s$ for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 19N southward
through a 1012 mb low (AL99), and moving west around 10 kt. Please
read the Special Features section above about the convection.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 21N
southwestward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring ahead of the wave from 12N to 21N between
50W and 56W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from western
Dominican Republic southward to the Colombia-Venezuela border. It
is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen near the Colombia-Venezuela border.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Western Sahara and Mauritania, then curves southwestward through=20
AL99 mentioned in the Special Features section to 15N40W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of the=20
monsoon trough near the coast of Senegal, Gambia and Guinea-
Bissau.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms at the
Caribbean waters near Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A modest surface ridge is dominating the entire Gulf with light to
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
area through the period maintaining relatively quiet marine=20
conditions. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to southeast winds
will be possible over the south-central Gulf each afternoon and=20
evening through this weekend as a trough develops over the Yucatan
Peninsula and moves westward.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical ridge building south of Hurricane Erin in the
northwestern Atlantic is resuming a trade-wind flow across much=20
of the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and=20
Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh
to locally strong easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident=20
at the south- central basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and=20
seas of 4 to 6 ft is noted across the north-central and eastern=20
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft=20
prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Gulf of=20
Honduras.

For the forecast, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will
maintain fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas for the
central and eastern basin tonight through Fri. Elsewhere, fresh=20
to occasionally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of=20
Honduras beginning on Thu. Long-period NE to N swell from=20
Hurricane Erin will begin to impact the Tropical North Atlantic=20
Offshore Zones from late Fri through Mon. Looking ahead, a=20
tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward=20
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and=20
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for=20
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is=20
likely to form by this weekend while it moves near or to the north
of the northern Leeward Islands.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on=20
Hurricane Erin and Invest Area AL99.

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at
the beginning for convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the
direct influence of Hurricane Erin, fresh to near-gale SW to W
winds and 10 to 16 ft seas in large swell from Erin are present=20
north of 25N between 55W and 76W. Otherwise, a subtropical ridge=20
near 26N is supporting gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas=20
of 4 to 7 ft dominate north of 24N between 35W and the=20
Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N
to 24N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, gentle to=20
moderate with locally fresh NE to SSE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas=20
exist. For the rest of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to=20
moderate with locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in
mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast, Erin will continue to pull NNE far away from=20
the region through the end of the week while slowly weakening.=20
Long-period northerly swells generated by Erin will affect just=20
about the entire forecast domain through the next few days. In the
wake of Erin, central Atlantic high pressure will build WSW=20
toward the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through the=20
period. Looking ahead, a tropical wave located several hundred=20
miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing a broad area of=20
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions=20
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a=20
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while it=20
moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.=20

$$

Chan

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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771=20
AXNT20 KNHC 211100
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Aug 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are
starting to show some signs of organization. The shower and
thunderstorm is of the numerous moderate to strong type evident
from 07N to 12N between 32W-40W. Recent satellite-derived wind=20
data depict that the system does not have a well-defined center.=20 Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for=20
additional development over the next day or so while the system=20
moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph, and a short- lived=20
tropical depression could form. By the end of the week,=20
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for=20
further development. This system has a medium chance of formation=20
for the next 2 to 7 days. PLease read the latest Tropical Weather=20
Outlook at website:=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!42wec-UIS1VjtPie9a5JpSSYQ6qAiIEUmRXLxemB1EtRycuyXLvBL7XpynkfP0B35z7Ws7uA= jo6crD4BE7MPboqtvcQ$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 32W from=20
05N to 19N. This wave crosses a 1010 mb low (Invest AL99). It is=20
moving westward around 10 kt. Please read the Special Features=20
section above about the convection.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from=20
22N50W to near 07N55W. It is moving westward at around 15 kt.=20
Clusters of numerous moderate to strong convection have increased=20
during the overnight hours from 11N to 19N between the wave and=20
58W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further=20
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the=20
northern Leeward Islands.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W extending from
Haiti to inland northeastern Colombia. It is moving westward=20
at about 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
within 60 nm east of the wave from 09N to 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Western Sahara and Mauritania, then curves southwestward through=20
Invest AL99 as mentioned in the Special Features section and=20
northwestward to near 15N37W. Aside from convection associated to
Invest AL99, numerous moderate to isolated strong is evident from
09N to 13N between the coast of Africa and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure pattern over the area is generally maintaining=20
light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
area through the period maintaining relatively quiet marine=20
conditions. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to southeast winds
will be possible over the south-central Gulf each afternoon and=20
evening through this weekend as a trough develops over the Yucatan
Peninsula and moves westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical ridge building south of Hurricane Erin in the
northwestern Atlantic is resuming a trade-wind flow across much=20
of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and=20
5 to 7 ft seas are evident at the south- central basin. Moderate=20
to fresh northeast to east and seas of 4 to 6 ft is noted across=20
the north- central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE=20
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin,=20
including the Gulf of Honduras.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are confined to
the southwestern section of the seas south of 11N between the=20
coast of Colombia and 82W. This activity is being enhanced by the=20
eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will=20
maintain fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas for the=20
central and eastern basin tonight through Fri. Elsewhere, fresh to
occasionally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of=20
Honduras beginning tonight. Long-period northerly swell from=20
Hurricane Erin will begin to impact the Tropical North Atlantic=20
Offshore Zones from late Fri through Mon. Looking ahead, a
shower and thunderstorm activity has become a bit more=20
concentrated in association with a tropical wave located a few=20
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental=20
conditions appear conducive for further development of this=20
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend=20
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward=20
Islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on=20
Invest Area AL99.

Hurricane Erin is well north of the area near 34.2N 72.1W at=20
21/0900 UTC, or about 180 nm ESE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
It is moving NNE at 15 kt and the estimated minimum central=20
pressure has risen slightly to 945 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering=20
much of the western Atlantic waters north of 23N and west of 65W.=20
Since Erin has a large cyclonic circulation, periphery tropical=20
storm force winds extend south of 31N to near 30N between 65W and=20
73W. Seas with these winds are in the 15 to 24 ft range. Outside=20
the direct influence of Hurricane Erin, fresh to near- gale SW to=20
W winds and 10 to 16 ft seas in large swell from Erin are present=20
north of 25N between 55W and 76W. Otherwise, a subtropical ridge=20
near 26N is supporting gentle to moderate southeast to south winds
and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate north of 24N between 35W and the=20 Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N
to 24N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, gentle to=20
moderate with locally fresh NE to SSE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas=20
exist. For the rest of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to=20
moderate with locally fresh south to southwest winds and seas of=20
5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast, Erin will will continue to pull NNE far away=20
from the region through the end of the week while slowly=20
weakening. The tropical storm force currently affecting the waters=20
roughly north of 30N and between 65W and 73W will shift north of=20
31N by early this afternoon. Associated seas will slowly subside
today through Fri. In addition, long period northerly swells=20
generated by Erin will affect just about the entire forecast area=20
through the next few days. In the wake of Erin, central Atlantic=20
high pressure will build WSW toward the central Bahamas and the=20
Straits of Florida through the period. Looking ahead, a tropical=20
wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is=20
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.=20 Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development=20
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by=20
this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern=20
Leeward Islands.=20

$$
Aguirre

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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016=20
AXNT20 KNHC 211102
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Aug 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are
starting to show some signs of organization. The shower and
thunderstorm is of the numerous moderate to strong type evident
from 07N to 12N between 32W-40W. Recent satellite-derived wind=20
data depict that the system does not have a well-defined center.=20 Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for=20
additional development over the next day or so while the system=20
moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph, and a short- lived=20
tropical depression could form. By the end of the week,=20
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for=20
further development. This system has a medium chance of formation=20
for the next 2 to 7 days. PLease read the latest Tropical Weather=20
Outlook at website:=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!46FIQT9pPNZ--sWv8ppV-MMHurkWoUjSV_Ps0RN4-cGYg7dk95jVIdH_OiBMq0DxfzA-eg7K= 9ujOPfePpWuzdYhF7XU$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 32W from=20
05N to 19N. This wave crosses a 1010 mb low (Invest AL99). It is=20
moving westward around 10 kt. Please read the Special Features=20
section above about the convection.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from=20
22N50W to near 07N55W. It is moving westward at around 15 kt.=20
Clusters of numerous moderate to strong convection have increased=20
during the overnight hours from 11N to 19N between the wave and=20
58W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further=20
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the=20
northern Leeward Islands.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W extending from
Haiti to inland northeastern Colombia. It is moving westward=20
at about 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
within 60 nm east of the wave from 09N to 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Western Sahara and Mauritania, then curves southwestward through=20
Invest AL99 as mentioned in the Special Features section and=20
northwestward to near 15N37W. Aside from convection associated to
Invest AL99, numerous moderate to isolated strong is evident from
09N to 13N between the coast of Africa and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure pattern over the area is generally maintaining=20
light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
area through the period maintaining relatively quiet marine=20
conditions. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to southeast winds
will be possible over the south-central Gulf each afternoon and=20
evening through this weekend as a trough develops over the Yucatan
Peninsula and moves westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical ridge building south of Hurricane Erin in the
northwestern Atlantic is resuming a trade-wind flow across much=20
of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and=20
5 to 7 ft seas are evident at the south- central basin. Moderate=20
to fresh northeast to east and seas of 4 to 6 ft is noted across=20
the north- central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE=20
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin,=20
including the Gulf of Honduras.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are confined to
the southwestern section of the seas south of 11N between the=20
coast of Colombia and 82W. This activity is being enhanced by the=20
eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will=20
maintain fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas for the=20
central and eastern basin tonight through Fri. Elsewhere, fresh to
occasionally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of=20
Honduras beginning tonight. Long-period northerly swell from=20
Hurricane Erin will begin to impact the Tropical North Atlantic=20
Offshore Zones from late Fri through Mon. Looking ahead, a
shower and thunderstorm activity has become a bit more=20
concentrated in association with a tropical wave located a few=20
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental=20
conditions appear conducive for further development of this=20
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend=20
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward=20
Islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on=20
Invest Area AL99.

Hurricane Erin is well north of the area near 34.2N 72.1W at=20
21/0900 UTC, or about 180 nm ESE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
It is moving NNE at 15 kt and the estimated minimum central=20
pressure has risen slightly to 945 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering=20
much of the western Atlantic waters north of 23N and west of 65W.=20
Since Erin has a large cyclonic circulation, periphery tropical=20
storm force winds extend south of 31N to near 30N between 65W and=20
73W. Seas with these winds are in the 15 to 24 ft range. Outside=20
the direct influence of Hurricane Erin, fresh to near- gale SW to=20
W winds and 10 to 16 ft seas in large swell from Erin are present=20
north of 25N between 55W and 76W. Otherwise, a subtropical ridge=20
near 26N is supporting gentle to moderate southeast to south winds
and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate north of 24N between 35W and the=20 Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N
to 24N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, gentle to=20
moderate with locally fresh NE to SSE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas=20
exist. For the rest of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to=20
moderate with locally fresh south to southwest winds and seas of=20
5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast, Erin will will continue to pull NNE far away=20
from the region through the end of the week while slowly weakening.=20
The tropical storm force winds currently affecting the waters=20
roughly north of 30N and between 65W and 73W will shift north of 31N=20
by early this afternoon. Associated seas will slowly subside today=20
through Fri. In addition, long period northerly swells generated by=20
Erin will affect just about the entire forecast area through the=20
next few days. In the wake of Erin, central Atlantic high pressure=20
will build WSW toward the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida=20
through the period. Looking ahead, a tropical wave located several=20
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing a broad area=20
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions=20
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a=20
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while it moves=20
near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.=20

$$
Aguirre

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735=20
AXNT20 KNHC 211758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Aug 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1758 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):=20
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Clusters of numerous moderate to strong convection is
depicted from 13N to 21.5N between 51W and 60W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward
Islands. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical=20
cyclone during the next 2 and a high chance of becoming a tropical
cyclone in the next 7 days.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have changed little in organization since earlier today. A cluster
of moderate to isolated strong convection in noted from 06N to 13N
between 32.5W and 41W. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for additional development over the next day or so while
the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 kt, and a short-
lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development. This system has a medium chance of formation
for the next 2 to 7 days.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding AL90 and AL99 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!-Jm1PJtjtIPReOnngw-JD3dQfOVECqIBhsC7p9P_-X-l3tJXQZkyYfeQZM5h8Hnc548rzMyY= 9pQ0D_J8aRlcHgVNn48$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74.5W extending from=20
20N to inland northeastern Colombia. It is moving westward at=20
15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time=20
in association with this wave.=20

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, then curves=20 southwestward through Invest AL99 as mentioned in the Special=20
Features section and to near 08N41W. Aside from convection=20
associated to Invest AL99, numerous moderate convection is=20
evident from 08N to 16N between the coast of Africa and 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Isolated moderate convection is depicted across the northern=20
Gulf. Otherwise, a weak pressure pattern over the area is=20
generally maintaining light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
area through the period maintaining quiet marine conditions.=20
Moderate to fresh northeast to southeast winds will be possible=20
over the south-central Gulf each afternoon and evening through=20
this weekend as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and=20
moves westward.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical ridge building south of Hurricane Erin in the
northwestern Atlantic is resuming a trade-wind flow across much=20
of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and=20
5 to 8 ft seas are evident at the south- central basin. Moderate=20
to fresh northeast to east and seas of 4 to 6 ft is noted across=20
the north- central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE=20
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin,=20
including the Gulf of Honduras.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are confined to
the southwestern section of the seas south of 11.5N and west
of 76.5W. This activity is being enhanced by the eastern=20
extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas seas=20
will exist over the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri as a strengthening pressure gradient develops between low pressure=20
over Colombia and building high pressure in the wake of Hurricane=20
Erin in the west Atlantic. Elsewhere, fresh to strong east to=20
southeast winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras beginning=20
tonight. Long period northwest to north swell from Hurricane Erin=20
will begin to impact the Tropical N Atlantic zones from late on=20
Fri through Mon. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated=20
with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the=20
Leeward Islands has changed little over the past several hours.=20 Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development=20
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this=20
weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern=20
Leeward Islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on=20
a two tropical waves with a medium chance of becoming a tropical=20
cyclone in the next 48 hours and Invest Areas AL90 and AL99.

Hurricane Erin is centered near 35.6N 70.5W at 21/1800 UTC or
250 nm E of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving NE at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Fresh to near-gale=20
cyclonic turning winds prevail north of 26N between 64W and 78W in
the periphery of Hurricane Erin. Seas within these waters are 14=20
to 21 ft in a large swell from Erin. Seas 8 ft or greater are=20
covering much of the western Atlantic waters north of 24N and west
of 61.5W. Otherwise, a subtropical ridge near 25N is supporting=20
gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate=20
north of 24N between 35W and 61.5W. For the tropical Atlantic from
10N to 24N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, gentle to
moderate with locally fresh NE to SSE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas=20
exist. For the rest of the Atlantic Basin east of 35W, gentle to=20
moderate with locally fresh south to southwest winds and seas of 5
to 8 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast, Erin will continue to move NNE far away from=20
the region through the end of the week while slowly weakening.=20
Long period northerly swells generated by Erin will affect just=20
about the entire forecast area through the next few days. In the=20
wake of Erin, central Atlantic high pressure will build WSW toward
the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through the=20
period. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a=20
tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward=20
Islands has changed little over the past several hours.=20
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development=20
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this=20
weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern=20
Leeward Islands.

$$
KRV

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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075=20
AXNT20 KNHC 211759
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Aug 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1758 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):=20
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Clusters of numerous moderate to strong convection is
depicted from 13N to 21.5N between 51W and 60W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward
Islands. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical=20
cyclone during the next 2 and a high chance of becoming a tropical
cyclone in the next 7 days.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have changed little in organization since earlier today. A cluster
of moderate to isolated strong convection in noted from 06N to 13N
between 32.5W and 41W. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for additional development over the next day or so while
the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 kt, and a short-
lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development. This system has a medium chance of formation
for the next 2 to 7 days.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding AL90 and AL99 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!_wM1pBD5h4Q-JXY7zVNrUMr2BNNDfbtnF6QPmGkOSHPlyajuInRIvry3Wd9ytk4iOmlJNkD6= sPzwMvCI4D1jk8PgQFw$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74.5W extending from=20
20N to inland northeastern Colombia. It is moving westward at=20
15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time=20
in association with this wave.=20

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, then curves=20 southwestward through Invest AL99 as mentioned in the Special=20
Features section and to near 08N41W. Aside from convection=20
associated to Invest AL99, numerous moderate convection is=20
evident from 08N to 16N between the coast of Africa and 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Isolated moderate convection is depicted across the northern=20
Gulf. Otherwise, a weak pressure pattern over the area is=20
generally maintaining light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
area through the period maintaining quiet marine conditions.=20
Moderate to fresh northeast to southeast winds will be possible=20
over the south-central Gulf each afternoon and evening through=20
this weekend as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and=20
moves westward.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical ridge building south of Hurricane Erin in the
northwestern Atlantic is resuming a trade-wind flow across much=20
of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and=20
5 to 8 ft seas are evident at the south- central basin. Moderate=20
to fresh northeast to east and seas of 4 to 6 ft is noted across=20
the north- central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE=20
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin,=20
including the Gulf of Honduras.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are confined to
the southwestern section of the seas south of 11.5N and west
of 76.5W. This activity is being enhanced by the eastern=20
extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas seas=20
will exist over the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri as a strengthening pressure gradient develops between low pressure=20
over Colombia and building high pressure in the wake of Hurricane=20
Erin in the west Atlantic. Elsewhere, fresh to strong east to=20
southeast winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras beginning=20
tonight. Long period northwest to north swell from Hurricane Erin=20
will begin to impact the Tropical N Atlantic zones from late on=20
Fri through Mon. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated=20
with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the=20
Leeward Islands has changed little over the past several hours.=20 Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development=20
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this=20
weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern=20
Leeward Islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on=20
a two tropical waves with a medium chance of becoming a tropical=20
cyclone in the next 48 hours and Invest Areas AL90 and AL99.

Hurricane Erin is centered near 35.6N 70.5W at 21/1800 UTC or
250 nm E of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving NE at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Fresh to near-gale=20
cyclonic turning winds prevail north of 26N between 64W and 78W in
the periphery of Hurricane Erin. Seas within these waters are 14=20
to 21 ft in a large swell from Erin. Seas 8 ft or greater are=20
covering much of the western Atlantic waters north of 24N and west
of 61.5W. Otherwise, a subtropical ridge near 25N is supporting=20
gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate=20
north of 24N between 35W and 61.5W. For the tropical Atlantic from
10N to 24N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, gentle to
moderate with locally fresh NE to SSE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas=20
exist. For the rest of the Atlantic Basin east of 35W, gentle to=20
moderate with locally fresh south to southwest winds and seas of 5
to 8 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast, Erin will continue to move NNE far away from=20
the region through the end of the week while slowly weakening.=20
Long period northerly swells generated by Erin will affect just=20
about the entire forecast area through the next few days. In the=20
wake of Erin, central Atlantic high pressure will build WSW toward
the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through the=20
period. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a=20
tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward=20
Islands has changed little over the past several hours.=20
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development=20
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this=20
weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern=20
Leeward Islands.

$$
KRV

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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297=20
AXNT20 KNHC 212056
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Aug 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large swell associated with Hurricane Erin:
Hurricane Erin is centered near 36.4N 69.1W at 21/2100 UTC or 320
nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving NE at 17 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Seas over 12 ft
generated from Erin cover the discussion waters N of 28N between
64W and 77W, peaking at 20 ft near 31N69W. Erin will move on a
northeastward to east-northeastward track over the next several
days. With this track, the area of 12 ft seas generated from Erin
will shift eastward across the waters N of 30N through the=20
weekend before shifting NE of the area early next week.=20

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):=20
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 13N to 21N between 54W and 61W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward
Islands. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 2 days and a high chance of becoming a=20
tropical cyclone in the next 7 days.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have changed little in organization since earlier today. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection in noted from 06N to 13N
between 33W and 41W. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for additional development over the next day or so while
the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a short-
lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development. This system has a medium chance of formation
for the next 2 to 7 days.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding AL90 and AL99 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!4kqj78DBhK-P128vXkP8tykGd60trH2k7ISMVQDKwmMdV96I_QzO4dIXh1qTCFgEXb8LqI3t= GvprW9nG8N4IhrdjNCU$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on two Atlantic
tropical waves.=20

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76.5W=20
extending from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
10N to 13N between 77W and 81W.=20

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends to
09N40W. Aside from convection noted in the SPECIAL FEATURES
section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection=20
is noted from 10N to 167 between the coast of Africa and 21W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure pattern over the area is maintaining light to=20
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
area through the period maintaining quiet marine conditions.=20
Moderate to fresh northeast to southeast winds will be possible=20
over the south-central Gulf each afternoon and evening through=20
this weekend as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and=20
moves westward.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge building south=20
of Hurricane Erin in the northwestern Atlantic and low pressure=20
over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds, and=20
seas of 6 to 8 ft, in the south central Caribbean. Moderate winds,
and seas of 4-6 ft, are elsewhere E of 80W. Gentle winds, and=20
seas of 1-3 ft, prevail over the waters W of 80W.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas seas=20
will exist over the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri as a strengthening pressure gradient develops between low pressure=20
over Colombia and building high pressure in the wake of Hurricane=20
Erin in the west Atlantic. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. An area of=20
disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical=20
wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.=20 Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development=20
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this=20
weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern=20
Leeward Islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on=20
Invest Areas AL90 and AL99.

Hurricane Erin is centered near 36.4N 69.1W at 21/2100 UTC or
320 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving NE at 17 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Fresh to near-gale=20
cyclonic winds around Erin prevail over the discussion waters=20
north of 28N between 64W and 75W. Aside from the area of 12 ft
seas discussed in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above, seas 8 ft=20
or greater are covering the discussion waters N of 26N and W of=20
66W. Ridging is building back across the SW N Atlantic waters.=20
Outside of the influence of Hurricane Erin, gentle to moderate=20
winds prevail, reaching locally moderate in the vicinity of AL90=20
and AL99. Seas are generally in the 4-7 ft range.=20

For the forecast, Erin is centered N of the area and continues to
move NNE away from the region. Despite its distance, long period=20
northerly swells generated by Erin will continue to affect the W=20
Atlantic waters through the next few days. In the wake of Erin,=20
central Atlantic high pressure will build WSW toward the central=20
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through the period. An area of=20 disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical=20
wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.=20 Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development=20
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this=20
weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern=20
Leeward Islands this weekend and into early next week.=20

$$
AL

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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004=20
AXNT20 KNHC 220620
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Aug 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large swell associated with Hurricane Erin:
Large northerly swell generated by Hurricane Erin well east of the
U.S. Mid Atlantic coast is causing 12 to 17 ft seas to the
northeast of the Bahamas, from 29N to 31N between 62W and 72W.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds prevail in the same area. As Erin=20
tracks east- northeastward across the northern Atlantic through=20
Sunday, these rough to very rough seas will also shift eastward=20
into the central Atlantic. These swell and seas should gradually=20
subside starting Sunday evening.=20

East of the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):=20
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands.=20

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have become better organized this evening. However, earlier
satellite-derived surface wind data showed that the system does
not have a well-defined center. Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for additional development over the next day
or so while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph,
and a short-lived tropical depression could form.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding both AL90 and AL99 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!4fcvveZMpCoTMRz3B7JhDIsIwlk_DWKKZ_mbnCjS5wQs9vuqqYMMoO_8mB284M0ulDkI20OE= KHX6QxMvcyQx_2Awuq8$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on two Atlantic
tropical waves.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 18W from 20N
southward, and moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is found from 10N to 17N between the Africa coast and
24W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 19N southward
through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 10N37W. It is moving west at 15
to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is see from 06N to 11N=20
between 37W and 49W.

A tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near 58W from 22N
southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 16N to 24N
between 56W and 62W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from 20N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated=20
strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 77W and 81W.=20

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast
near EL Mamghar, then curves southwestward through 11N30W to a
1010 mb low near 10N37W. Refer to the Tropical Waves section=20
above for convection near the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure pattern over the area is maintaining light to=20
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas, except the eastern Bay of
Campeche with gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft=20
seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf through the period maintaining quiet marine conditions.=20
Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds will be possible over the south-
central Gulf each afternoon and evening through this weekend as a
trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge building south=20
of Hurricane Erin in the northwestern Atlantic and low pressure=20
over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds, and=20
seas of 6 to 8 ft, in the south central Caribbean. Moderate winds,
and seas of 4-6 ft, are elsewhere E of 80W. Gentle winds and seas
of ft, prevail over the waters W of 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas will=20
exist over the central and eastern basin through Fri as a=20
strengthening pressure gradient develops between low pressure over
Colombia and building high pressure in the wake of Hurricane Erin
in the west Atlantic. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras tonight. An area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a few=20
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental=20
conditions appear conducive for further development of this=20
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend=20
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward=20
Islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
information on Invest Areas AL90 and AL99.

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the winds and seas=20
mentioned in the Special Features section, a 1021 mb high near
28N44W is supporting gentle to moderate winds SE to SW to W winds
with 6 to 12 ft seas north of 20N between 65W and the
Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the east north of 20N between
35W and 65W, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft exist. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N west of 35W,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 6
to 7 ft are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west
of 35W, moderate with locally fresh and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed
moderate swell prevail.

For the forecast, long-period northerly swells generated by Erin=20
will continue to affect the western Atlantic waters through the=20
next few days. In the wake of Erin, central Atlantic high pressure
will build west-southwest toward the central Bahamas and the=20
Straits of Florida. An area of disorganized showers and=20
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a few=20
hundred nautical miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental=20
conditions appear conducive for further development of this=20
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend=20
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward=20
Islands. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building=20
seas will accompany the feature across portions of the zones east=20
of 70W.=20

$$

Chan

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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077=20
AXNT20 KNHC 220620
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Aug 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large swell associated with Hurricane Erin:
Large northerly swell generated by Hurricane Erin well east of the
U.S. Mid Atlantic coast is causing 12 to 17 ft seas to the
northeast of the Bahamas, from 29N to 31N between 62W and 72W.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds prevail in the same area. As Erin=20
tracks east- northeastward across the northern Atlantic through=20
Sunday, these rough to very rough seas will also shift eastward=20
into the central Atlantic. These swell and seas should gradually=20
subside starting Sunday evening.=20

East of the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):=20
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands.=20

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have become better organized this evening. However, earlier
satellite-derived surface wind data showed that the system does
not have a well-defined center. Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for additional development over the next day
or so while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph,
and a short-lived tropical depression could form.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding both AL90 and AL99 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!7rwbZDc0Tcp9rqlI5W52Gfv8LJh0UhVnEBoIiAU5fEcFrtzadaypDNMKShkD2dwQk-JS5yTb= mDnwNf8EPiV_Q-ukkG8$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on two Atlantic
tropical waves.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 18W from 20N
southward, and moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is found from 10N to 17N between the Africa coast and
24W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 19N southward
through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 10N37W. It is moving west at 15
to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is see from 06N to 11N=20
between 37W and 49W.

A tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near 58W from 22N
southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 16N to 24N
between 56W and 62W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from 20N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated=20
strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 77W and 81W.=20

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast
near EL Mamghar, then curves southwestward through 11N30W to a
1010 mb low near 10N37W. Refer to the Tropical Waves section=20
above for convection near the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure pattern over the area is maintaining light to=20
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas, except the eastern Bay of
Campeche with gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft=20
seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf through the period maintaining quiet marine conditions.=20
Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds will be possible over the south-
central Gulf each afternoon and evening through this weekend as a
trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge building south=20
of Hurricane Erin in the northwestern Atlantic and low pressure=20
over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds, and=20
seas of 6 to 8 ft, in the south central Caribbean. Moderate winds,
and seas of 4-6 ft, are elsewhere E of 80W. Gentle winds and seas
of ft, prevail over the waters W of 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas will=20
exist over the central and eastern basin through Fri as a=20
strengthening pressure gradient develops between low pressure over
Colombia and building high pressure in the wake of Hurricane Erin
in the west Atlantic. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras tonight. An area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a few=20
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental=20
conditions appear conducive for further development of this=20
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend=20
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward=20
Islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
information on Invest Areas AL90 and AL99.

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the winds and seas=20
mentioned in the Special Features section, a 1021 mb high near
28N44W is supporting gentle to moderate winds SE to SW to W winds
with 6 to 12 ft seas north of 20N between 65W and the
Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the east north of 20N between
35W and 65W, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft exist. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N west of 35W,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 6
to 7 ft are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west
of 35W, moderate with locally fresh and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed
moderate swell prevail.

For the forecast, long-period northerly swells generated by Erin=20
will continue to affect the western Atlantic waters through the=20
next few days. In the wake of Erin, central Atlantic high pressure
will build west-southwest toward the central Bahamas and the=20
Straits of Florida. An area of disorganized showers and=20
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a few=20
hundred nautical miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental=20
conditions appear conducive for further development of this=20
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend=20
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward=20
Islands. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building=20
seas will accompany the feature across portions of the zones east=20
of 70W.=20

$$

Chan

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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150=20
AXNT20 KNHC 220907
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Aug 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large swell associated with Hurricane Erin:
Large northerly swell generated by Hurricane Erin well east of the
U.S. Mid Atlantic coast is causing 12 to 17 ft seas to the
northeast of the Bahamas, from 29N to 31N between 62W and 73W.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds prevail in the same area. As Erin
tracks east-northeastward across the northern Atlantic through=20
Sunday, these rough to very rough seas will also shift eastward=20
into the central Atlantic. These swell and seas should gradually=20
subside starting Sunday evening.=20

East of the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):=20
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
a tropical wave is located a couple hundred nautical miles ENE of
the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves
northwestward and then northward, in between the Lesser Antilles
and Bermuda. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation, and regardless of development, expecting increasing
winds and building seas with it.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about a thousand nautical miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands remain well organized. This system could become a tropical
depression at any time, but the latest satellite-derived wind data
indicate that the system does not have a well-defined circulation
center. The system is expected to move into a less conducive
environment later today through Saturday, but could reach a
slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into
early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 kt over the
central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles. This
system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding both AL90 and AL99 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!8SgLZmlkpuXb0-EgpF48tI140Gn-XQ5CoK4z4WKTeKQo7a2f7hOO9OKWo9rVUc7sWMBcGRyE= kU-xlU3CXlm3FINIhB0$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on two Atlantic
tropical waves.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 18.5W between the
coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, from 20.5N southward,
moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found=20
from 09N to 14.5N between the Africa coast and 26.5W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 38.5W from 20N=20
southward through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 10.5N38.5W, moving=20
west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is see from=20
05.5N to 13.5N between 38.5W and 51W.

A tropical wave is just east of the Lesser Antilles near 59W from
23N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous=20
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 16N to 24.5N
between 55.5W and 61W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is moving from the central portion of
the basin to the western portion, near the Cayman Islands at 81W=20
from 20.5N southward to western Panama, moving west at around 20=20
kt. Convection is described in the Caribbean Sea section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast
near EL Mamghar, then curves southwestward through a 1010 mb low
pressure area near 17N21W to another 1010 mb low, AL99, near
10.5N38.5W to 13.5N44W. Refer to the Tropical Waves section=20
above for convection near the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure pattern over the area is maintaining light to=20
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas, except the eastern Bay of
Campeche with moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 3 ft seas. A few
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
area through the period maintaining quiet marine conditions.=20
Moderate to fresh northeast to southeast winds will be possible=20
over the south-central Gulf each afternoon and evening this=20
weekend into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan
Peninsula and moves westward.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge building south=20
of Hurricane Erin in the northwestern Atlantic and low pressure=20
over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds, and=20
seas of 6 to 8 ft, in the south central Caribbean between 68W and
82W to the south of 18N. Moderate winds, and seas of 3 to 6 ft,=20
are E of 68W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft,=20
prevail over the waters W of 82W. Scattered thunderstorms are in
the SW Caribbean S of 13N and W of 77W near the eastern Pacific
Ocean extension of the monsoon trough. Some showers and
thunderstorms have moved into the NE Caribbean associated with the
tropical wave and AL90 discussed above.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas,=20
locally rough, will exist over the central Caribbean through the=20
next several days as a strengthening pressure gradient develops=20
between low pressure over Colombia and building high pressure in=20
the wake of Hurricane Erin in the west Atlantic. Fresh to strong=20
east to southeast winds will pulse near the Gulf of Honduras at=20
night. Moderate to fresh trades will pulse in the eastern=20
Caribbean and across the approach to the Windward Passage with=20
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. An area of disorganized=20
showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is=20
located a couple hundred nautical miles ENE of the northern=20
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for=20
further development of this system, and a tropical depression is=20
likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then=20
northward, in between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. This system
has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation, and regardless=20
of development, expecting increasing winds and building seas with=20
it.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
information on Invest Areas AL90 and AL99.

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the winds and seas=20
mentioned in the Special Features section, a 1021 mb high near
28N44W is supporting gentle to moderate winds SE to SW to W winds
with 6 to 12 ft seas north of 20N between 65W and the
Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the east, north of 20N between
35W and 65W, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft exist. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N west of 35W,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 6
to 7 ft are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west
of 35W, moderate with locally fresh and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed
moderate swell prevail.

For the forecast, Hurricane Erin is centered N of the area and
continues to move NNE away from the region. Despite its distance,
long period northerly swells generated by Erin will continue to=20
affect the W Atlantic waters through the next few days. In the=20
wake of Erin, central Atlantic high pressure will build WSW toward
the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. An area of=20
disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical=20
wave is located a couple hundred nautical miles ENE of the=20
northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear=20
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical=20
depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves=20
northwestward and then northward, in between the Lesser Antilles=20
and Bermuda. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone=20
formation, and regardless of development, expecting increasing=20
winds and building seas with it E of 70W.

$$
Lewitsky

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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265=20
AXNT20 KNHC 220907
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Aug 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large swell associated with Hurricane Erin:
Large northerly swell generated by Hurricane Erin well east of the
U.S. Mid Atlantic coast is causing 12 to 17 ft seas to the
northeast of the Bahamas, from 29N to 31N between 62W and 73W.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds prevail in the same area. As Erin
tracks east-northeastward across the northern Atlantic through=20
Sunday, these rough to very rough seas will also shift eastward=20
into the central Atlantic. These swell and seas should gradually=20
subside starting Sunday evening.=20

East of the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):=20
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
a tropical wave is located a couple hundred nautical miles ENE of
the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves
northwestward and then northward, in between the Lesser Antilles
and Bermuda. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation, and regardless of development, expecting increasing
winds and building seas with it.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about a thousand nautical miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands remain well organized. This system could become a tropical
depression at any time, but the latest satellite-derived wind data
indicate that the system does not have a well-defined circulation
center. The system is expected to move into a less conducive
environment later today through Saturday, but could reach a
slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into
early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 kt over the
central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles. This
system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding both AL90 and AL99 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!9bsw_i7SrS3tFkvzwFLbtfaexTQlS_EInZd6tiGsK3lzqC3vo9gI11WsH1t-TpUju5FjV59Y= 3IbXAM1hZOslaieUASQ$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on two Atlantic
tropical waves.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 18.5W between the
coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, from 20.5N southward,
moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found=20
from 09N to 14.5N between the Africa coast and 26.5W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 38.5W from 20N=20
southward through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 10.5N38.5W, moving=20
west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is see from=20
05.5N to 13.5N between 38.5W and 51W.

A tropical wave is just east of the Lesser Antilles near 59W from
23N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous=20
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 16N to 24.5N
between 55.5W and 61W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is moving from the central portion of
the basin to the western portion, near the Cayman Islands at 81W=20
from 20.5N southward to western Panama, moving west at around 20=20
kt. Convection is described in the Caribbean Sea section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast
near EL Mamghar, then curves southwestward through a 1010 mb low
pressure area near 17N21W to another 1010 mb low, AL99, near
10.5N38.5W to 13.5N44W. Refer to the Tropical Waves section=20
above for convection near the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure pattern over the area is maintaining light to=20
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas, except the eastern Bay of
Campeche with moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 3 ft seas. A few
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
area through the period maintaining quiet marine conditions.=20
Moderate to fresh northeast to southeast winds will be possible=20
over the south-central Gulf each afternoon and evening this=20
weekend into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan
Peninsula and moves westward.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge building south=20
of Hurricane Erin in the northwestern Atlantic and low pressure=20
over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds, and=20
seas of 6 to 8 ft, in the south central Caribbean between 68W and
82W to the south of 18N. Moderate winds, and seas of 3 to 6 ft,=20
are E of 68W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft,=20
prevail over the waters W of 82W. Scattered thunderstorms are in
the SW Caribbean S of 13N and W of 77W near the eastern Pacific
Ocean extension of the monsoon trough. Some showers and
thunderstorms have moved into the NE Caribbean associated with the
tropical wave and AL90 discussed above.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas,=20
locally rough, will exist over the central Caribbean through the=20
next several days as a strengthening pressure gradient develops=20
between low pressure over Colombia and building high pressure in=20
the wake of Hurricane Erin in the west Atlantic. Fresh to strong=20
east to southeast winds will pulse near the Gulf of Honduras at=20
night. Moderate to fresh trades will pulse in the eastern=20
Caribbean and across the approach to the Windward Passage with=20
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. An area of disorganized=20
showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is=20
located a couple hundred nautical miles ENE of the northern=20
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for=20
further development of this system, and a tropical depression is=20
likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then=20
northward, in between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. This system
has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation, and regardless=20
of development, expecting increasing winds and building seas with=20
it.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
information on Invest Areas AL90 and AL99.

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the winds and seas=20
mentioned in the Special Features section, a 1021 mb high near
28N44W is supporting gentle to moderate winds SE to SW to W winds
with 6 to 12 ft seas north of 20N between 65W and the
Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the east, north of 20N between
35W and 65W, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft exist. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N west of 35W,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 6
to 7 ft are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west
of 35W, moderate with locally fresh and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed
moderate swell prevail.

For the forecast, Hurricane Erin is centered N of the area and
continues to move NNE away from the region. Despite its distance,
long period northerly swells generated by Erin will continue to=20
affect the W Atlantic waters through the next few days. In the=20
wake of Erin, central Atlantic high pressure will build WSW toward
the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. An area of=20
disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical=20
wave is located a couple hundred nautical miles ENE of the=20
northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear=20
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical=20
depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves=20
northwestward and then northward, in between the Lesser Antilles=20
and Bermuda. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone=20
formation, and regardless of development, expecting increasing=20
winds and building seas with it E of 70W.

$$
Lewitsky

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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564=20
AXNT20 KNHC 221746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Aug 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Near the Leeward Islands (AL90):=20
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization
in association with a tropical wave located about a hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this
system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely
to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then
northward, in between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.
Current forecasts indicate peak winds of 30 kt and peak seas of 12
ft within the next 48 hr. This system has a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation in the next two days, and - if it does
develop - forecasted winds and seas will need to be increased=20
accordingly.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands have become
less organized overnight. While there is still some chance that a
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or
so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive
environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more
favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week
as it moves westward at 10 to 15 kt over the central tropical
Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles. Current forecasts
indicate peak winds of 20 kt and peak seas of 7 ft within the=20
next 48 hr. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone=20
formation in the next two days, and - if it does develop -=20
forecasted winds and seas will need to be increased accordingly.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding both AL90 and AL99 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!80MWdb4jANmGm8qq0iuDSbAQrbAgFDJEc937ja3IXwICaPqitrhoTYzaKoV739OfrqD13SSb= pwBWCiYuBLB5S5XxBXc$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on two Atlantic
tropical waves.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W between the=20
coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, from 21N equatorward,
moving west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
found from 10N-13N east of 27W.=20

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 20N=20
equatorward through a 1012 mb low (AL99) near 10N40W, moving west=20
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from=20
08N-15N between 40W-47W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean near 63W from 21N=20
equatorward, moving west around 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is occurring at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 82W
from 20N southward to western Panama, moving west at around 15-20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 13N west=20
of 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast
near 17N16W, then curves southwestward through a 1012 mb low=20
pressure area, AL99, near 10N40W to 09N43W. The ITCZ begins at=20
09N43W and extends to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. The=20
eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa=20
Rica near 10N83W to a low 1008 mb at 11N76W along the coast of
Colombia. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for=20
convection near the monsoon troughs and ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough of low pressure is straddling the US Gulf coast from
southern Texas to the Florida panhandle with a weak 1012 mb low
near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring north of 27N. Away from the convection,
winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 1-2 ft across the entire
Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the
south-central Gulf each afternoon through evening this weekend=20
into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward at night.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Colombian Low and a ridge north
of the Greater Antilles is forcing moderate to fresh trades across
most of the Caribbean except strong trades just north of Colombia.
Seas are 5-8 ft over the central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere.=20
Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 13N west of
77W in association with a tropical wave and the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to=20
locally rough seas will prevail over the central Caribbean through
the next several days as central Atlantic high pressure builds=20
W-SW across the western Atlantic, in the wake of exiting Hurricane
Erin. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse near the Gulf of=20
Honduras at night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected in the=20
eastern Caribbean and across the approach to the Windward Passage=20
with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. An area of disorganized=20
showers and thunderstorms is located within a couple hundred=20
nautical miles E through NE of the northern Leeward Islands.=20
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development=20
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this=20
weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in=20
between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
information on Invest Areas AL90 and AL99.

The outer circulation of Hurricane Erin is casing fresh to strong
SW winds north of 29N between 60W-70W. Seas are 8-14 ft north of=20
28N between 63W-77W. Fresh winds, 5-7 ft seas, and scattered=20
moderate and isolated strong convection are occurring from 20N-26N
between 56W-62W in association with a surface trough (AL90).=20
Elsewhere, weak ridging along 25N-28N across the Atlantic in=20
conjunction with lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough=20
is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades across the=20
Atlantic with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, Hurricane Erin continues to move NE away from the=20
region. Large northerly swell generated by Erin will continue to=20
affect the W Atlantic waters through the next few days. In the=20
wake of Erin, central Atlantic high pressure will build W-SW=20
toward the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. An area of=20 disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located within a couple
hundred nautical miles E through NE of the northern Leeward=20
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further=20
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then=20
northward, in between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. This system
has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of=20
development, expect increasing winds and building seas with it E=20
of 68W.=20

$$
Landsea

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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716=20
AXNT20 KNHC 222325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Aug 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a trough of low pressure located
about 250 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development
of this system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this
weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward over the
southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the
progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required
on Saturday. There is a high chance of formation within the next
48 hours.=20

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding AL90 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!5moI4EdAmpqv31lhtI9XxtEh86Gt1bZgbMBNuhFcqCPP9fXUyJsp86U-yVHszEQbaYFE-DQt= 57sfOn3QjONJHGdDOWM$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on the tropical wave
associated with AL90.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W between the=20
coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, from 22N equatorward,
moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found=20
from 10N-13N east of 28W.=20

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 21N=20
equatorward through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 10N42W, moving west
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from=20
07N-13N between 42W-49W. While there is still some chance that a=20
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or=20
so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive=20
environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more=20
favorable environment late this weekend into early next week as it
approaches the Windward Islands. There is a low chance of=20
formation within the next 48 hours, and a medium chance within the
next 7 days.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean near 65W from 20N=20
equatorward, moving west around 15-20 kt. No significant=20
convection is occurring at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 85.5W
from 18N southward through Honduras and Nicaragua into the eastern
Pacific. No significant convection is occurring in the Caribbean
near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast
near 17N16W, then curves southwestward through a 1010 mb low=20
pressure area, AL99, near 10N42W to 09N45W. The ITCZ begins at=20
09N45W and extends to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. The=20
eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa=20
Rica near 10N83W to a low 1008 mb at 11N77W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 07N to 10N between 50W and 55W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is straddling the US Gulf coast from
southeastern Louisiana through southern Georgia with a weak 1012=20
mb low near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring north of 27N. Away from the convection,=20
winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 1-3 ft across the=20
entire Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the
south-central Gulf each afternoon through evening this weekend=20
into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward at night.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between low pressure in the south-central
Caribbean and a ridge north of the Greater Antilles is forcing=20
moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean except=20
strong trades just north of Colombia. Seas are 5-8 ft over the=20
central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will prevail over the central Caribbean Sat night=20
through the next several days as central Atlantic high pressure=20
builds W-SW across the western Atlantic, in the wake of exiting=20
Hurricane Erin. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse across=20
the Gulf of Honduras at night. Moderate to fresh trades are=20
expected in the eastern Caribbean and across the approach to the=20
Windward Passage with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. An area=20
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located within a=20
couple hundred nautical miles NE of the northern Leeward Islands.=20 Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development=20
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this=20
weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in=20
between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
information on Invest Area AL90.

The outer circulation of Hurricane Erin is causing moderate to
fresh SW winds north of 29N between 55W-65W. Seas are 8-12 ft=20
north of 25N between 55W-78W. Fresh winds, 5-7 ft seas, and=20
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are occurring=20
from 20N-26N between 58W-63W in association with a surface trough
(AL90). Elsewhere, weak ridging along 25N-28N across the Atlantic
in conjunction with lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon=20
trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades across the
Atlantic with seas 4-8 ft.

For the forecast, Hurricane Erin continues to move NE away from=20
the region. Large northerly swell generated by Erin will continue=20
to affect the W Atlantic waters through the next few days. In the=20
wake of Erin, central Atlantic high pressure will build W-SW=20
toward the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. An area of=20 disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located within a couple=20
hundred nautical miles NE of the northern Leeward Islands.=20
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development=20
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this=20
weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in=20
between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. This system has a high=20
chance of tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of formation,=20
gale-force winds are expected to develop across the eastern=20
semicircle of this low beginning Sun morning.=20

$$
ADAMS

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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760=20
AXNT20 KNHC 222325
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Aug 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a trough of low pressure located
about 250 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development
of this system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this
weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward over the
southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the
progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required
on Saturday. There is a high chance of formation within the next
48 hours.=20

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding AL90 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!6txQ9Sl14J-uj30obcO6mqoci-abmn8u2j0DS5-1mIJuwsODNTcXA1N7aJW9VypTnYz7L8N2= BRMz8k4moTdrJw7ZZ2A$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on the tropical wave
associated with AL90.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W between the=20
coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, from 22N equatorward,
moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found=20
from 10N-13N east of 28W.=20

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 21N=20
equatorward through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 10N42W, moving west
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from=20
07N-13N between 42W-49W. While there is still some chance that a=20
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or=20
so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive=20
environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more=20
favorable environment late this weekend into early next week as it
approaches the Windward Islands. There is a low chance of=20
formation within the next 48 hours, and a medium chance within the
next 7 days.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean near 65W from 20N=20
equatorward, moving west around 15-20 kt. No significant=20
convection is occurring at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 85.5W
from 18N southward through Honduras and Nicaragua into the eastern
Pacific. No significant convection is occurring in the Caribbean
near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast
near 17N16W, then curves southwestward through a 1010 mb low=20
pressure area, AL99, near 10N42W to 09N45W. The ITCZ begins at=20
09N45W and extends to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. The=20
eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa=20
Rica near 10N83W to a low 1008 mb at 11N77W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 07N to 10N between 50W and 55W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is straddling the US Gulf coast from
southeastern Louisiana through southern Georgia with a weak 1012=20
mb low near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring north of 27N. Away from the convection,=20
winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 1-3 ft across the=20
entire Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the
south-central Gulf each afternoon through evening this weekend=20
into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward at night.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between low pressure in the south-central
Caribbean and a ridge north of the Greater Antilles is forcing=20
moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean except=20
strong trades just north of Colombia. Seas are 5-8 ft over the=20
central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will prevail over the central Caribbean Sat night=20
through the next several days as central Atlantic high pressure=20
builds W-SW across the western Atlantic, in the wake of exiting=20
Hurricane Erin. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse across=20
the Gulf of Honduras at night. Moderate to fresh trades are=20
expected in the eastern Caribbean and across the approach to the=20
Windward Passage with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. An area=20
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located within a=20
couple hundred nautical miles NE of the northern Leeward Islands.=20 Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development=20
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this=20
weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in=20
between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
information on Invest Area AL90.

The outer circulation of Hurricane Erin is causing moderate to
fresh SW winds north of 29N between 55W-65W. Seas are 8-12 ft=20
north of 25N between 55W-78W. Fresh winds, 5-7 ft seas, and=20
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are occurring=20
from 20N-26N between 58W-63W in association with a surface trough
(AL90). Elsewhere, weak ridging along 25N-28N across the Atlantic
in conjunction with lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon=20
trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades across the
Atlantic with seas 4-8 ft.

For the forecast, Hurricane Erin continues to move NE away from=20
the region. Large northerly swell generated by Erin will continue=20
to affect the W Atlantic waters through the next few days. In the=20
wake of Erin, central Atlantic high pressure will build W-SW=20
toward the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. An area of=20 disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located within a couple=20
hundred nautical miles NE of the northern Leeward Islands.=20
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development=20
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this=20
weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in=20
between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. This system has a high=20
chance of tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of formation,=20
gale-force winds are expected to develop across the eastern=20
semicircle of this low beginning Sun morning.=20

$$
ADAMS

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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927=20
AXNT20 KNHC 222345
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Aug 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms have not=20
become any better organized this evening in association with a=20
trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles northeast of=20
the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear=20
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical=20
storm is very likely to form this weekend while it moves=20
northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic.=20
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as=20
watches or warnings could be required on Saturday. There is a high=20
chance of formation within the next 48 hours.=20

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding AL90 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!4y9qaY1ioI3Vb5pvkWCj-qQoq7a3itcvrk8zEJ1rQeH_9A4vAUW4G2EQzUfU2KHqpdPn4Ee7= vS1Ys84fjGSZqQ_5_AQ$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on the tropical wave
associated with AL90.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W between the=20
coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, from 22N equatorward,
moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found=20
from 10N-13N east of 28W.=20

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 21N equatorward=20
through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 10N42W, moving west at 15-20 kt.=20
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N-13N between 42W-
49W. While there is still some chance that a short-lived tropical=20
depression could form during the next day or so, the system is=20
expected to move through a less conducive environment on Saturday.=20
The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment late this=20
weekend into early next week as it approaches the Windward Islands.=20
There is a low chance of formation within the next 48 hours and the=20
next 7 days.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean near 65W from 20N=20
equatorward, moving west around 15-20 kt. No significant=20
convection is occurring at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 85.5W
from 18N southward through Honduras and Nicaragua into the eastern
Pacific. No significant convection is occurring in the Caribbean
near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast
near 17N16W, then curves southwestward through a 1010 mb low=20
pressure area, AL99, near 10N42W to 09N45W. The ITCZ begins at=20
09N45W and extends to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. The=20
eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa=20
Rica near 10N83W to a low 1008 mb at 11N77W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 07N to 10N between 50W and 55W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is straddling the US Gulf coast from
southeastern Louisiana through southern Georgia with a weak 1012=20
mb low near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring north of 27N. Away from the convection,=20
winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 1-3 ft across the=20
entire Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the
south-central Gulf each afternoon through evening this weekend=20
into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward at night.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between low pressure in the south-central
Caribbean and a ridge north of the Greater Antilles is forcing=20
moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean except=20
strong trades just north of Colombia. Seas are 5-8 ft over the=20
central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will prevail over the central Caribbean Sat night through=20
the next several days as central Atlantic high pressure builds W-SW=20
across the western Atlantic, in the wake of exiting Hurricane Erin.=20
Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras=20
at night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected in the eastern=20
Caribbean and across the approach to the Windward Passage with=20
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. For AL90, showers and=20
thunderstorms have not become any better organized this evening in=20 association with a trough of low pressure located a couple hundred=20
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental=20
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,=20
and a tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend while it=20
moves northwestward and then northward over the southwestern=20
Atlantic.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
information on Invest Area AL90.

The outer circulation of Hurricane Erin is causing moderate to
fresh SW winds north of 29N between 55W-65W. Seas are 8-12 ft=20
north of 25N between 55W-78W. Fresh winds, 5-7 ft seas, and=20
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are occurring=20
from 20N-26N between 58W-63W in association with a surface trough
(AL90). Elsewhere, weak ridging along 25N-28N across the Atlantic
in conjunction with lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon=20
trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades across the
Atlantic with seas 4-8 ft.

For the forecast, Hurricane Erin continues to move NE away from the=20
region. Large northerly swell generated by Erin will continue to=20
affect the W Atlantic waters through the next few days. In the wake=20
of Erin, central Atlantic high pressure will build W-SW toward the=20
central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. For AL90, Showers and=20 thunderstorms have not become any better organized this evening in=20 association with a trough of low pressure located a couple hundred=20
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental=20
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,=20
and a tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend while it=20
moves northwestward and then northward over the southwestern=20
Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this=20
system as watches or warnings could be required on Saturday.

$$
ADAMS

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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732=20
AXNT20 KNHC 230634
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Aug 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):=20
Showers and thunderstorms from 21N to 26N between 57W and 62W have
not become any better organized this evening in association with a
trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
6 to 8 ft seas are seen near this feature. Environmental=20
conditions appear conducive for further development of this=20
system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend=20
while it moves northwestward and then northward over the=20
southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the=20
progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required=20
on Saturday. There is a high chance of formation within the next=20
48 hours.=20

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding AL90 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!7hUJmwVTKp8gpi1BZ06xvaYPCejIY0KVBrv7x-kInugeBa2YCh78LDmtfgHEO4Y3PZ66cSEC= uwODGCrxS-pnpB6RjE4$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 21N
southward across the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving west around 5
kt. There is no significant convection related to this feature.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 21N southward=20
through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 10N43W. It is moving west around=20
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 13N
between 44W and 46W. While there is still some chance that a=20
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or=20
so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive=20
environment on Saturday, then reach a slightly more favorable=20
environment late this weekend into early next week as it=20
approaches the Windward Islands. There is a low chance of=20
formation within the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W from 20N=20
southwestward across the Virgin Islands into north-central
Venezuela. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate convection is seen across the northeastern
Caribbean Sea, including the Virgin Islands.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from the Gulf of
Honduras southward through Nicaragua into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted near the Honduras-Nicaragua border.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of=20
Mauritian and Senegal, then meanders southwestward through a 1010
mb low pressure (AL99) near 10N43W to 09N46W. An ITCZ continues
westward from 09N46W to north of Guyana at 09N58W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is seen near the monsoon trough off
the Senegal coast. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 80
nm along either side of the ITCZ.

The east Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous moderate to
scattered strong thunderstorms offshore from northwestern=20
Colombia.


...GULF OF AMERICA...

A couple of surface troughs are creating widely scattered showers
and isolated strong thunderstorms across the central and eastern
Gulf, and the eastern Bay of Campeche. A stationary front drapes
across the coastal areas of the Gulf States. Gentle to moderate E
to SE to SW winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present at eastern Bay
of Campeche, south-central and east-central Gulf. Gentle winds
with 1 to 2 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the
south-central Gulf each afternoon through evening this weekend=20
into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward at night.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent winds are causing isolated thunderstorms near the
Island of Youth, and offshore from Honduras and Nicaragua. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
additional convection. Fresh to locally strong SE to E winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the Gulf of Honduras, central=20
basin and the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE=20
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will prevail over the central basin Sat night through=20
the next several days as central Atlantic high pressure builds=20
W-SW across the western Atlantic, in the wake of exiting Post=20
tropical cyclone Erin. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse=20
across the Gulf of Honduras at night through Mon night. Moderate=20
to fresh trades are expected in the eastern Caribbean and across=20
the approach to the Windward Passage, then increasing to between=20
fresh and strong from this weekend into early next week in the=20
eastern Caribbean. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are forecast=20 elsewhere.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
information on Invest Area AL90.

Residual northerly swells from former Hurricane Erin is
maintaining 12 to 13 ft seas north of 29N between 52W and 63W.=20
Outside the influence from AL90, a 1021 mb high near 28N45W is
supporting gentle winds and seas at 5 to 10 ft north of 23N
between 35W and the Florida east coast. For the tropical Atlantic
from 10N to 23N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles,
moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are
evident. For the rest of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to
moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate
swells prevail.

For the forecast, large northerly swell generated by now=20
extratropical cyclone Erin will continue to affect the western=20
Atlantic waters through the next few days. In the wake of Erin,=20
central Atlantic high pressure will build W-SW toward the central=20
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. Meanwhile, showers and=20
thunderstorms have not become any better organized this evening in
association with a trough of low pressure, AL90, located a couple
hundred nautical miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development
of this system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this=20
weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward over the=20 southwestern Atlantic. This system has a high chance of tropical=20
cyclone formation. Regardless of formation, gale-force winds are=20
expected to develop across the eastern semicircle of this low=20
beginning Sun morning with building seas. A slow moving cold front
may move off the SE U.S. into the NW waters by the middle of next
week.

$$

Chan

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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375=20
AXNT20 KNHC 230859
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Aug 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):=20
Showers and thunderstorms from 22.5N to 28N between 59W and 64W
have become a little better organized in association with a trough
of low pressure, AL90, located a few hundred nautical miles north
of the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds and seas to
around 8 ft are seen near this feature. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves
north- northwestward and then northward over the southwestern
Atlantic. There is a high chance of formation within the next 48=20
hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more=20
information regarding AL90 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!6Vpi1DUeJ4Eh1t_w5I2crGGupT1vQiN0M7DVf6QtmRhn31AyAwukCYN9_AStFOERWzsZHvXc= GfUh2A2kNMa2eIch-mk$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is moving across the Cabo
Verde Islands near 24W from 22N southward, moving west at around=20
10 kt. There is no significant convection related to this=20
feature.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 21N southward=20
through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 11N45W, moving west at around 15
to 20 kt. Convection is described in the Special Features section
above.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from 20N to across
Puerto Rico to western Venezuela, moving west at around 15 to 20
kt. Some widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are
possible from near the U.S. Virgin Islands to S of the coast of
Puerto Rico to the Mona Passage.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from the Gulf of
Honduras near 18N southward through Honduras to far NW Nicaragua=20
into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving west at around 10 kt. No
deep convection is present over the waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W, then meanders southwestward through a 1011 mb low=20
pressure near the Cabo Verde Islands at 15.5N22.5W to another area
of low pressure (AL99) of 1010 mb at 11N45W to 09N48W. The ITCZ=20
continues westward from 09N48W to north of the border of Guyana
and Venezuela at 10N59W. Other than the convection described with
AL99 above, widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N
to 10.5N between 48.5W and 57W.

The east Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous moderate to
scattered strong thunderstorms offshore from northwestern=20
Colombia, as well as over inland portions of northern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A couple of surface troughs are creating widely scattered showers
and isolated strong thunderstorms across the central and eastern
Gulf, and the eastern Bay of Campeche. A stationary front drapes
across the coastal areas of the Gulf States. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds centered along 24.5N and seas of 1 to 3 ft are
present at eastern Bay of Campeche, south-central and east-=20
central.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the
south-central Gulf each afternoon through evening this weekend=20
into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward at night.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the convection described offshore NW Colombia and with
a tropical wave near Puerto Rico both described above, no
significant convection is noted over the remainder of the basin.=20
Fresh to locally strong SE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are=20
present at the Gulf of Honduras, central basin and the Windward=20
Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas=20
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will prevail over the central Caribbean later today=20
through the next several days as central Atlantic high pressure=20
builds W-SW across the western Atlantic, in the wake of distant=20 extratropical cyclone Erin. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will=20
pulse across the Gulf of Honduras at night. Moderate to fresh=20
trades are expected in the eastern Caribbean and across the=20
approach to the Windward Passage, increasing to fresh to strong=20
late in the weekend into early next week in the eastern Caribbean.
Mainly moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere.=20
Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical=20
wave located more than one thousand nautical miles east of the=20
Windward Islands have become less organized over the past 24=20
hours, and the system is currently being affected by strong wind=20
shear. No development is expected through tonight while the system
traverses the area of strong wind shear. The wave could reach a=20
slightly more favorable environment Sun and Mon as it approaches=20
the Windward Islands, and some slow development is possible during
that time. By the middle of next week, conditions over the=20
Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
information on Invest Area AL90.

Residual northerly swells from former Hurricane Erin is
maintaining 12 to 13 ft seas north of 30N between 55W and 70W.=20
Outside the influence from AL90, a 1020 mb high near 30N44W is=20
supporting gentle winds and seas at 5 to 10 ft north of 24N=20
between 35W and the Florida east coast. For the tropical Atlantic=20
from 10N to 21N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to=20
fresh NE to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident. Fresh
winds are noted offshore north of 30N and east of 14W. For the=20
rest of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate winds and=20
seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast, Large northerly swell generated by extratropical=20
cyclone Erin will continue to affect the W Atlantic waters
through the next few days. In the wake of Erin, central Atlantic
high pressure will build W-SW toward the central Bahamas and the=20
Straits of Florida. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms have=20
become a little better organized in association with a trough of=20
low pressure, AL90, located a few hundred nautical miles north of=20
the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear=20
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical=20
storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves north-=20
northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic.=20
This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation.=20
Regardless of formation, gale-force winds are expected to develop=20
across the eastern semicircle of this low beginning late tonight=20
into Sun morning, with building seas. A slow moving cold front may
move off the SE U.S. into the NW waters by the middle of next=20
week.=20

$$
Lewitsky

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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318=20
AXNT20 KNHC 230859
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Aug 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):=20
Showers and thunderstorms from 22.5N to 28N between 59W and 64W
have become a little better organized in association with a trough
of low pressure, AL90, located a few hundred nautical miles north
of the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds and seas to
around 8 ft are seen near this feature. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves
north- northwestward and then northward over the southwestern
Atlantic. There is a high chance of formation within the next 48=20
hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more=20
information regarding AL90 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!-sqSLddft4xH9LBl3E-rGYjcSaNsVy-9oGBscgtAiZR8GLXuv-9KvP66xt6j0MaVXuiWiJwu= o6gIS3XGSK8StHFa2LU$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is moving across the Cabo
Verde Islands near 24W from 22N southward, moving west at around=20
10 kt. There is no significant convection related to this=20
feature.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 21N southward=20
through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 11N45W, moving west at around 15
to 20 kt. Convection is described in the Special Features section
above.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from 20N to across
Puerto Rico to western Venezuela, moving west at around 15 to 20
kt. Some widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are
possible from near the U.S. Virgin Islands to S of the coast of
Puerto Rico to the Mona Passage.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from the Gulf of
Honduras near 18N southward through Honduras to far NW Nicaragua=20
into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving west at around 10 kt. No
deep convection is present over the waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W, then meanders southwestward through a 1011 mb low=20
pressure near the Cabo Verde Islands at 15.5N22.5W to another area
of low pressure (AL99) of 1010 mb at 11N45W to 09N48W. The ITCZ=20
continues westward from 09N48W to north of the border of Guyana
and Venezuela at 10N59W. Other than the convection described with
AL99 above, widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N
to 10.5N between 48.5W and 57W.

The east Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous moderate to
scattered strong thunderstorms offshore from northwestern=20
Colombia, as well as over inland portions of northern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A couple of surface troughs are creating widely scattered showers
and isolated strong thunderstorms across the central and eastern
Gulf, and the eastern Bay of Campeche. A stationary front drapes
across the coastal areas of the Gulf States. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds centered along 24.5N and seas of 1 to 3 ft are
present at eastern Bay of Campeche, south-central and east-=20
central.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the
south-central Gulf each afternoon through evening this weekend=20
into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward at night.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the convection described offshore NW Colombia and with
a tropical wave near Puerto Rico both described above, no
significant convection is noted over the remainder of the basin.=20
Fresh to locally strong SE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are=20
present at the Gulf of Honduras, central basin and the Windward=20
Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas=20
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will prevail over the central Caribbean later today=20
through the next several days as central Atlantic high pressure=20
builds W-SW across the western Atlantic, in the wake of distant=20 extratropical cyclone Erin. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will=20
pulse across the Gulf of Honduras at night. Moderate to fresh=20
trades are expected in the eastern Caribbean and across the=20
approach to the Windward Passage, increasing to fresh to strong=20
late in the weekend into early next week in the eastern Caribbean.
Mainly moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere.=20
Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical=20
wave located more than one thousand nautical miles east of the=20
Windward Islands have become less organized over the past 24=20
hours, and the system is currently being affected by strong wind=20
shear. No development is expected through tonight while the system
traverses the area of strong wind shear. The wave could reach a=20
slightly more favorable environment Sun and Mon as it approaches=20
the Windward Islands, and some slow development is possible during
that time. By the middle of next week, conditions over the=20
Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
information on Invest Area AL90.

Residual northerly swells from former Hurricane Erin is
maintaining 12 to 13 ft seas north of 30N between 55W and 70W.=20
Outside the influence from AL90, a 1020 mb high near 30N44W is=20
supporting gentle winds and seas at 5 to 10 ft north of 24N=20
between 35W and the Florida east coast. For the tropical Atlantic=20
from 10N to 21N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to=20
fresh NE to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident. Fresh
winds are noted offshore north of 30N and east of 14W. For the=20
rest of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate winds and=20
seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast, Large northerly swell generated by extratropical=20
cyclone Erin will continue to affect the W Atlantic waters
through the next few days. In the wake of Erin, central Atlantic
high pressure will build W-SW toward the central Bahamas and the=20
Straits of Florida. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms have=20
become a little better organized in association with a trough of=20
low pressure, AL90, located a few hundred nautical miles north of=20
the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear=20
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical=20
storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves north-=20
northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic.=20
This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation.=20
Regardless of formation, gale-force winds are expected to develop=20
across the eastern semicircle of this low beginning late tonight=20
into Sun morning, with building seas. A slow moving cold front may
move off the SE U.S. into the NW waters by the middle of next=20
week.=20

$$
Lewitsky

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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822=20
AXNT20 KNHC 230912
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Aug 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):=20
Showers and thunderstorms from 22.5N to 28N between 59W and 64W
have become a little better organized in association with a trough
of low pressure, AL90, located a few hundred nautical miles north
of the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds and seas to
around 8 ft are seen near this feature. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves
north- northwestward and then northward over the southwestern
Atlantic. There is a high chance of formation within the next 48=20
hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more=20
information regarding AL90 at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl__;!!DZ3f= jg!5yZhrkbCTLM9PGGY5vAz_f2wIQfEBunuC7prtijzkQBaTP5_A5bMIYZLOt1fc71h6GpoVJ4t= 2LFvm-RC8m2xK-oj7u8$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is moving across the Cabo
Verde Islands near 24W from 22N southward, moving west at around=20
10 kt. There is no significant convection related to this=20
feature.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 21N southward=20
through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 11N45W, moving west at around 15
to 20 kt. Convection is described in the Special Features section
above.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from 20N to across
Puerto Rico to western Venezuela, moving west at around 15 to 20
kt. Some widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are
possible from near the U.S. Virgin Islands to S of the coast of
Puerto Rico to the Mona Passage.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from the Gulf of
Honduras near 18N southward through Honduras to far NW Nicaragua=20
into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving west at around 10 kt. No
deep convection is present over the waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W, then meanders southwestward through a 1011 mb low=20
pressure near the Cabo Verde Islands at 15.5N22.5W to another area
of low pressure (AL99) of 1010 mb at 11N45W to 09N48W. The ITCZ=20
continues westward from 09N48W to north of the border of Guyana
and Venezuela at 10N59W. Other than the convection described with
AL99 above, widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N
to 10.5N between 48.5W and 57W.

The east Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous moderate to
scattered strong thunderstorms offshore from northwestern=20
Colombia, as well as over inland portions of northern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A couple of surface troughs are creating widely scattered showers
and isolated strong thunderstorms across the central and eastern
Gulf, and the eastern Bay of Campeche. A stationary front drapes
across the coastal areas of the Gulf States. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds centered along 24.5N and seas of 1 to 3 ft are
present at eastern Bay of Campeche, south-central and east-=20
central.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the
south-central Gulf each afternoon through evening this weekend=20
into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward at night.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the convection described offshore NW Colombia and with
a tropical wave near Puerto Rico both described above, no
significant convection is noted over the remainder of the basin.=20
Fresh to locally strong SE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are=20
present at the Gulf of Honduras, central basin and the Windward=20
Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas=20
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will prevail over the central Caribbean later today=20
through the next several days as central Atlantic high pressure=20
builds W-SW across the western Atlantic, in the wake of distant=20 extratropical cyclone Erin. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will=20
pulse across the Gulf of Honduras at night. Moderate to fresh=20
trades are expected in the eastern Caribbean and across the=20
approach to the Windward Passage, increasing to fresh to strong=20
late in the weekend into early next week in the eastern Caribbean.
Mainly moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere.=20
Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical=20
wave located more than one thousand nautical miles east of the=20
Windward Islands have become less organized over the past 24=20
hours, and the system is currently being affected by strong wind=20
shear. No development is expected through tonight while the system
traverses the area of strong wind shear. The wave could reach a=20
slightly more favorable environment Sun and Mon as it approaches=20
the Windward Islands, and some slow development is possible during
that time. By the middle of next week, conditions over the=20
Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for=20
information on Invest Area AL90.

Residual northerly swells from former Hurricane Erin is
maintaining 12 to 13 ft seas north of 30N between 55W and 70W.=20
Outside the influence from AL90, a 1020 mb high near 30N44W is=20
supporting gentle winds and seas at 5 to 10 ft north of 24N=20
between 35W and the Florida east coast. For the tropical Atlantic=20
from 10N to 21N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to=20
fresh NE to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident. Fresh
winds are noted offshore north of 30N and east of 14W. For the=20
rest of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate winds and=20
seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast, Large northerly swell generated by extratropical=20
cyclone Erin will continue to affect the W Atlantic waters
through the next few days. In the wake of Erin, central Atlantic
high pressure will build W-SW toward the central Bahamas and the=20
Straits of Florida. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms have=20
become a little better organized in association with a trough of=20
low pressure, AL90, located a few hundred nautical miles north of=20
the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear=20
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical=20
storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves north-=20
northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic.=20
This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation.=20
Regardless of formation, gale-force winds are expected to develop=20
across the eastern semicircle of this low beginning late tonight=20
into Sun morning, with building seas. A slow moving cold front may
move off the SE U.S. into the NW waters by the middle of next=20
week.=20

$$
Lewitsky

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584=20
AXNT20 KNHC 231801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Aug 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Satellite images and Air Force Reserve aircraft reconnaissance
data indicate that an area of low pressure about 400 miles south-
southeast of Bermuda continues to get better-defined, and recent satellite-derived winds indicate that the low pressure area has
gale-force winds east of the center. Seas are currently 8-11 ft.
This system is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon
or evening, with further intensification likely through Sunday
while the low moves northward at 10 to 15 mph over the
southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the
progress of this system, though the threat to that island appears
to be less than yesterday. There is a high chance of formation=20
within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather=20
Outlook for more information regarding AL90 at website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5SQtpZxGHv= eqmLuaqlUpje4q0CqVTx34oqNYA7knDZxMS2lqzk32UQGFOfvdBO5gw6kBT1fi22oHcqO4o-KMa= pVCOYw$ for more details. For additional information,=20
including gale warnings, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!5SQtpZxGHveqmLuaqlUpje4q0CqVTx34oqNYA7knDZxMS2lqzk32UQGFOfvdBO5gw= 6kBT1fi22oHcqO4o-KMUqvnOYw$ .

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, passing through
the western Cabo Verde Islands, from 22N southward. The wave is
moving westward at approximately 5-10 kt. No significant=20
convection is noted with the tropical wave at this time.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, from 21N=20
southward through a 1011 mb low (AL99) near 12N48W, moving west=20
at around 15 to 20 kt. AL99 has a LOW chance of developing into a
tropical cyclone through the next 48 hours. For more information,
please see the TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__= ;!!DZ3fjg!5SQtpZxGHveqmLuaqlUpje4q0CqVTx34oqNYA7knDZxMS2lqzk32UQGFOfvdBO5gw= 6kBT1fi22oHcqO4o-KMapVCOYw$ . Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N to 14N between 48W and 53W. The latest
scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong SE to NE winds near
AL99; seas are 7-9 ft in these winds. Moderate winds are

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 20N southward,
including the Mona Passage, and moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Visible satellite imagery indicates that the wave envelope is=20
large and extends across most of the eastern and central=20
Caribbean, where scattered showers and tstorms are evident.

The tropical wave previously analyzed in the far western Caribbean
has moved inland over Central America. For additional information
on this tropical wave, please see the Tropical Weather Discussion
for the East Pacific Ocean (TWDEP) at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://ww= w.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5SQtpZxGHveqmLuaqlUpje4q0CqVTx34oqNYA7knDZxMS2l= qzk32UQGFOfvdBO5gw6kBT1fi22oHcqO4o-KMapVCOYw$ .

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of=20
Mauritania near 18N16W, then meanders southwestward and then
westward to 11.5N50W, just west of AL99. Convection is limited to
the area near AL99 and is described in the SPECIAL FEATURES
section above.=20

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front persists across the northern Gulf Coast, and
continues to produce scattered moderate convection across the
northern Gulf waters north of 25N between 82W and 98W, including
inland over the Florida Peninsula. The benign, diurnal surface
trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE=20
to S winds prevail across the basin, with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will=20
remain active across the northern Gulf through the weekend as an=20
old front meanders along the north Gulf coasts and slowly=20
dissipates. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the=20
south- central Gulf each afternoon through evening this weekend=20
into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean, from
the coast of Panama north to 12N between the coast of Colombia and
80W. The latest scatterometer pass from this morning indicates
gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean, accompanied by 3-6
ft seas.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will prevail over the central Caribbean this evening=20
through the next several days as central Atlantic high pressure=20
builds W-SW across the western Atlantic, in the wake of distant=20 extratropical cyclone Erin. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will=20
pulse across the Gulf of Honduras at night. Moderate to fresh=20
trades are expected in the eastern Caribbean and across the=20
approach to the Windward Passage, increasing to fresh to strong=20
late in the weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, showers and=20 thunderstorms continue in association with a central Atlantic=20
tropical wave along 49W this morning. Some development of this=20
system could occur during the next few days while the system moves
quickly westward at near 20 kt. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty=20
winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands and the
eastern Caribbean as the system moves through on Sun and Mon. By=20
the middle of next week, conditions over the central Caribbean are
expected to be unfavorable for further development.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on=20
Invest Area AL90. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Residual northerly swell from Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin=20
continues to affect parts of the western and central Atlantic.=20
8-12 ft seas, with periods of 12-14 seconds, are analyzed north=20
of a line from 31N45W to 24N62W to 31N75W. Please note the locally
different sea state within this area near AL90, which is described
in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. In the deep tropical Atlantic,
fresh to strong trades are analyzed south of 05N and west of 35W.
Light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere across the basin, with=20
4-7 ft seas in open waters.

For the forecast, large northerly swell generated by=20
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin will continue to affect the W Atlantic
waters through the next few days. In the wake of Erin, central=20
Atlantic high pressure will build W-SW toward the central Bahamas=20
and the Straits of Florida. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms=20
have become better organized in association with low pressure,=20
AL90, near 25.5N62W. Gale-force winds are expected to develop with
this system late this afternoon or evening as it moves northward,
and is expected to cross 31N Sun evening. Environmental=20
conditions appear conducive for further development of this=20
system, and a tropical storm is expected to form this weekend. A=20
slow moving cold front will move off the SE U.S. into the NW=20
waters by the middle of next week.=20

$$
Mahoney

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295=20
AXNT20 KNHC 232353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Aug 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fernand:
Tropical Storm Fernand is centered near 27.2N 61.4W at 23/2100=20
UTC or 350 nm SSE of Bermuda, moving N at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35=20
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 27N to 30N between 57W and 63W. Peak seas to 12 ft are=20
occurring from 26N to 28N between 59.5W and 61.5W. A north-=20
northeastward motion at a gradually increasing forward speed is=20
anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to=20
the northeast. On the forecast track, Fernand should move well=20
east of Bermuda and across the open waters of the subtropical=20
North Atlantic. Fernand will move to 29.0N 61.0W Sun morning,=20
31.4N 60.3W Sun afternoon, 33.6N 59.5W Mon morning, 35.8N 58.5W=20
Mon afternoon, 38.2N 56.7W Tue morning, and 41.3N 54.0W Tue=20
afternoon. Fernand will become extratropical as it moves to 47.0N=20
44.0W Wed afternoon.=20

East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased and are beginning to=20
show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave=20
located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system=20
could become a tropical depression during the next day or two=20
while it moves quickly westward at about 20 to 25 mph, passing=20
through the Windward and Leeward Islands late on Sunday.=20
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds=20
are possible across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands=20
on Sunday and Monday. The system is expected to reach the central=20
Caribbean on Tuesday, where conditions are expected to become less
favorable for additional development. There is a medium chance of
formation within the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website
- https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml= __;!!DZ3fjg!_on9zlzvF_BJoiGtGTGZiouYL9UbkrVltqGeWu63G_LrLT2GH6poweNx9nLjAtI= ysOyDabJVVBPsjfS_Eu_0BVsu8PM$ and the latest
Fernand NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_on9zlzvF_= BJoiGtGTGZiouYL9UbkrVltqGeWu63G_LrLT2GH6poweNx9nLjAtIysOyDabJVVBPsjfS_Eu_0i= P3pGoo$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, passing through
the western Cabo Verde Islands, from 22N southward. The wave is
moving westward around 5 kt. No significant convection is noted=20
with the tropical wave at this time.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned to along
50W, from 22N southward through a 1011 mb low (AL99) near 11.5N50W.
AL99 has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone=20
through the next 48 hours. Scattered moderate to isolated strong=20
convection is occurring from 08N to 15N between 50W and 56W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from 19N=20
southward, and moving westward around 15 to 20 kt. Visible=20
satellite imagery indicates that the wave envelope is large and=20
extends across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, where=20
scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of=20
Mauritania near 18N16W and extends southwestward to a 1011 mb low
(AL99) near 11.5N50W. Convection is limited to the area near AL99
and is described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above.=20

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front persists across the northern Gulf Coast, and
continues to produce scattered moderate convection across the
central and northern Gulf waters north of 23N. Moderate to locally
fresh E to NE winds are noted north of the Yucatan Peninsula into
the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, gentle to moderate SE to=20
S winds prevail across the rest of the Gulf, with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will=20
remain active across the northern Gulf through the weekend as an=20
old front meanders along the north Gulf coastal waters and slowly=20 dissipates. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the=20 south-central Gulf each afternoon through evening this weekend=20
into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward at night.=20

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are occurring across much of the
Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, as a moderate=20
pressure gradient prevails between low pressure over northern=20
Colombia and a 1017 mb high centered east of the Bahamas. Fresh E
to NE winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 3 to 6 ft
prevail across the central and eastern basin, with 2 to 4 ft seas
in the northwestern Caribbean.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will return to the south-central Caribbean this evening
through Sun as central Atlantic high pressure builds W-SW across=20
the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will then expand=20
across most of central and eastern portions, and the Windward=20
Passage, Sun night through Wed as a strong tropical wave moves=20
through the basin. Locally heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds, and
squalls and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this tropical
wave across east and central portions Sun evening through late=20
Wed. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse across the Gulf of=20
Honduras at night through Tue. NW to N swell will build across the
tropical Atlantic waters and move through the Atlantic Passages=20
tonight through early Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
Tropical Storm Fernand and Invest Area AL99. Please see the=20
TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Residual northerly swell from Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin=20
continues to affect parts of the western and central Atlantic.=20
8-13 ft seas, with periods of 12-14 seconds, are analyzed north=20
of a line from 31N40W to 25N55W to 22N68W. Please note the=20
locally different sea state within this area near Tropical Storm
Fernand, which is described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. In=20
the deep tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades are analyzed
south of 20N and west of 35W. Light to gentle trades prevail=20
elsewhere across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters.

For the forecast, large northerly swell generated by=20
extratropical cyclone Erin will continue to affect the W Atlantic=20
waters through the next few days. Weak high pressure has developed
along 70W, to the east of the central Bahamas. Newly formed=20
Tropical Storm Fernand is located at 27.2N 61.4W at 2100 UTC,=20
moving N at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt gusts to 45=20
kt. Minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Fernand will move N-NE=20
and slowly strengthen before exiting the area north of 31N Sun=20
afternoon. Central Atlantic high pressure will then build W-SW and
into the NW Bahamas Mon through Wed. A slow moving cold front=20
will move off the SE U.S. into the NW waters Wed through Thu.=20

$$
ADAMS

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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991=20
AXNT20 KNHC 240550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Aug 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fernand:
Tropical Storm Fernand is centered near 28.8N 61.2W at 24/0300 UTC
or 280 nm SE of Bermuda, moving NNE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 26N to 30N between 59W and 63W. Peak seas are near 15 ft,
with seas in excess of 12 ft occurring from 26N to 28N between 59W
and 62W. Fernand is moving toward the north-northeast and this=20
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days,=20
followed by a turn to the northeast. On the forecast track,=20
Fernand should move well east of Bermuda and across the open=20
waters of the subtropical North Atlantic.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
During the past several hours, showers and thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave located about 450 miles east of
the Windward Islands have changed little in organization. This
system could become a tropical depression during the next day or
two while it moves quickly westward at about 20 to 25 mph, passing
through the Windward and Leeward Islands late today or tonight.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are possible across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands
today and Monday. The system is expected to reach the central
Caribbean on Tuesday, where conditions are expected to become less
favorable for additional development. There is a medium chance of
formation within the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website
- https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml= __;!!DZ3fjg!-qErcm6tR-L5zOUo-pqBV57G5aFD-eJEJXCwccxi-hCrxEhIYbq_m97uTjCBS0v= -l2eqhU1WG2nd6k22rTpHs9qUZfY$ and the latest
Fernand NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-qErcm6tR-= L5zOUo-pqBV57G5aFD-eJEJXCwccxi-hCrxEhIYbq_m97uTjCBS0v-l2eqhU1WG2nd6k22rTpHE= H7FKhA$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25.5W from 22N=20
southward to near 09N. The wave is moving westward around 5 kt.=20
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the=20
south end of the wave axis.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 52W,=20
from 21N southward through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 12N52W. AL99
has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through
the next 48 hours. Scattered moderate to isolated strong=20
convection is occurring from 08N to 16N between 51W and 57W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from 19N southward,
and moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Visible satellite imagery
indicates that the wave envelope is large and extends across most
of the eastern and central Caribbean, where widely scattered=20
showers and thunderstorms are evident.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of=20
Mauritania near 18N16W and extends southwestward to near 10N35W.
The ITCZ then extends from 10N35W to 11N50W where it is broken by
the tropical wave associated with AL99. The ITCZ then resumes near
10N53W and runs SW to 08N60W. Convection is limited to the area=20
near AL99 and is described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring generally S of 14N and W of 78W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front persists across the northern Gulf Coast, and
continues to produce scattered moderate convection across the
central and northern Gulf waters north of 24N. Moderate to=20
locally fresh E to NE winds are noted north of the Yucatan=20
Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, gentle to=20
moderate E to SE winds prevail across the rest of the Gulf, with=20
1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will=20
remain active across the Gulf N of 22N through the weekend as an=20
old front meanders along the north Gulf coastal waters and slowly=20 dissipates. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the=20 south-central Gulf each afternoon through at least the middle of=20
next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and=20
moves westward at night.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across much of
the central Caribbean, due to the moderate pressure gradient in
place between higher pressure N of the region and the 1010
Colombia Low. Moderate to fresh trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail in
the E Caribbean, Windward Passage, and the Gulf of Honduras. The
remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 2-5 ft occur.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will return to the south-central Caribbean this evening
through Sun as central Atlantic high pressure builds W-SW across=20
the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will then expand=20
across most of central and eastern portions, and the Windward=20
Passage, Sun night through Wed as a strong tropical wave moves=20
through the basin. Locally heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds, and
squalls and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this tropical
wave across east and central portions Sun evening through late=20
Wed. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse across the Gulf of=20
Honduras at night through Tue. NW to N swell will build across the
tropical Atlantic waters and move through the Atlantic Passages=20
tonight through early Mon.=20

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
Tropical Storm Fernand and Invest Area AL99. Please see the=20
TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Residual northerly swell from Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin=20
continues to affect parts of the western and central Atlantic.=20
8-13 ft seas, with periods of 12-14 seconds, are analyzed N of 24N
between 40W and 72W. Please note the locally different sea state=20
within this area near Tropical Storm Fernand, which is described=20
in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Off the SE US coast, a warm front
lifting north of the discussion waters is leading to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms generally north of 24N and W
of 74W. In the deep tropical Atlantic away from the=20
aforementioned features, moderate to locally fresh trades are=20
analyzed south of 20N and west of 35W. Light to gentle trades=20
prevail elsewhere across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas in open=20
waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fernand is near 28.8N 61.2W at=20
11 PM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 14 kt. Maximum=20
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum=20
central pressure is 1010 mb. Fernand will move to 30.6N 60.6W Sun=20
morning, then N of the area to 32.9N 59.7W Sun evening. Central=20
Atlantic high pressure will then build W-SW and into the NW=20
Bahamas Mon through Wed. Meanwhile, large northerly swell=20
generated by extratropical cyclone Erin will continue to affect=20
the W Atlantic waters through the next few days. A stationary=20
front will linger off the SE U.S. coast into the early part of the
week with fresh winds SE of it. Fresh to strong winds will pulse=20
N of Hispaniola Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon. Tranquil=20
marine conditions may prevail by the end of next week.

$$
Adams

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052=20
AXNT20 KNHC 240550
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Aug 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fernand:
Tropical Storm Fernand is centered near 28.8N 61.2W at 24/0300 UTC
or 280 nm SE of Bermuda, moving NNE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 26N to 30N between 59W and 63W. Peak seas are near 15 ft,
with seas in excess of 12 ft occurring from 26N to 28N between 59W
and 62W. Fernand is moving toward the north-northeast and this=20
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days,=20
followed by a turn to the northeast. On the forecast track,=20
Fernand should move well east of Bermuda and across the open=20
waters of the subtropical North Atlantic.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
During the past several hours, showers and thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave located about 450 miles east of
the Windward Islands have changed little in organization. This
system could become a tropical depression during the next day or
two while it moves quickly westward at about 20 to 25 mph, passing
through the Windward and Leeward Islands late today or tonight.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are possible across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands
today and Monday. The system is expected to reach the central
Caribbean on Tuesday, where conditions are expected to become less
favorable for additional development. There is a medium chance of
formation within the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website
- https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml= __;!!DZ3fjg!6JnYklRTPZ1jOKU2-lU5b4wzg08vAw8ph3xrbgaCwS7Lsy19y4B9oQELDsmL32A= tGGM4C6o4Bv7PGalweKiPfPs_8hM$ and the latest
Fernand NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6JnYklRTPZ= 1jOKU2-lU5b4wzg08vAw8ph3xrbgaCwS7Lsy19y4B9oQELDsmL32AtGGM4C6o4Bv7PGalweKiP6= eKjgJo$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25.5W from 22N=20
southward to near 09N. The wave is moving westward around 5 kt.=20
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the=20
south end of the wave axis.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 52W,=20
from 21N southward through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 12N52W. AL99
has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through
the next 48 hours. Scattered moderate to isolated strong=20
convection is occurring from 08N to 16N between 51W and 57W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from 19N southward,
and moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Visible satellite imagery
indicates that the wave envelope is large and extends across most
of the eastern and central Caribbean, where widely scattered=20
showers and thunderstorms are evident.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of=20
Mauritania near 18N16W and extends southwestward to near 10N35W.
The ITCZ then extends from 10N35W to 11N50W where it is broken by
the tropical wave associated with AL99. The ITCZ then resumes near
10N53W and runs SW to 08N60W. Convection is limited to the area=20
near AL99 and is described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring generally S of 14N and W of 78W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front persists across the northern Gulf Coast, and
continues to produce scattered moderate convection across the
central and northern Gulf waters north of 24N. Moderate to=20
locally fresh E to NE winds are noted north of the Yucatan=20
Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, gentle to=20
moderate E to SE winds prevail across the rest of the Gulf, with=20
1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will=20
remain active across the Gulf N of 22N through the weekend as an=20
old front meanders along the north Gulf coastal waters and slowly=20 dissipates. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the=20 south-central Gulf each afternoon through at least the middle of=20
next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and=20
moves westward at night.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across much of
the central Caribbean, due to the moderate pressure gradient in
place between higher pressure N of the region and the 1010
Colombia Low. Moderate to fresh trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail in
the E Caribbean, Windward Passage, and the Gulf of Honduras. The
remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 2-5 ft occur.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will return to the south-central Caribbean this evening
through Sun as central Atlantic high pressure builds W-SW across=20
the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will then expand=20
across most of central and eastern portions, and the Windward=20
Passage, Sun night through Wed as a strong tropical wave moves=20
through the basin. Locally heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds, and
squalls and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this tropical
wave across east and central portions Sun evening through late=20
Wed. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse across the Gulf of=20
Honduras at night through Tue. NW to N swell will build across the
tropical Atlantic waters and move through the Atlantic Passages=20
tonight through early Mon.=20

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
Tropical Storm Fernand and Invest Area AL99. Please see the=20
TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Residual northerly swell from Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin=20
continues to affect parts of the western and central Atlantic.=20
8-13 ft seas, with periods of 12-14 seconds, are analyzed N of 24N
between 40W and 72W. Please note the locally different sea state=20
within this area near Tropical Storm Fernand, which is described=20
in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Off the SE US coast, a warm front
lifting north of the discussion waters is leading to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms generally north of 24N and W
of 74W. In the deep tropical Atlantic away from the=20
aforementioned features, moderate to locally fresh trades are=20
analyzed south of 20N and west of 35W. Light to gentle trades=20
prevail elsewhere across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas in open=20
waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fernand is near 28.8N 61.2W at=20
11 PM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 14 kt. Maximum=20
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum=20
central pressure is 1010 mb. Fernand will move to 30.6N 60.6W Sun=20
morning, then N of the area to 32.9N 59.7W Sun evening. Central=20
Atlantic high pressure will then build W-SW and into the NW=20
Bahamas Mon through Wed. Meanwhile, large northerly swell=20
generated by extratropical cyclone Erin will continue to affect=20
the W Atlantic waters through the next few days. A stationary=20
front will linger off the SE U.S. coast into the early part of the
week with fresh winds SE of it. Fresh to strong winds will pulse=20
N of Hispaniola Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon. Tranquil=20
marine conditions may prevail by the end of next week.

$$
Adams

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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432=20
AXNT20 KNHC 240855
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Aug 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fernand: Tropical Storm Fernand is centered near
29.7N 60.7W at 24/0900 UTC or 260 nm SE of Bermuda, moving NNE at
13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum=20
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are
currently near 5.0 m, or 16 ft. Numerous moderate convection is=20
noted within 90 nm in the NW semicircle and 30 nm in the SE=20
semicircle of the system. Similar convection is noted from 28.5N=20
to 31N between 58W and 60W. Fernand is moving toward the north-
northeast and this motion is expected to continue for the next=20
day or two, followed by a turn to the northeast. On the forecast=20
track, Fernand should move well east of Bermuda and across the=20
open waters of the subtropical North Atlantic. Some strengthening
is forecast during the next 48 hours. A weakening trend is=20
expected by Tuesday.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99): During the past several=20
hours, showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave,=20
AL99, located about 390 nautical miles east of the Windward=20
Islands near 12.5N54W have changed little in organization.=20
Numerous moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 54W=20
and 58.5W. Associated winds are currently fresh to strong with=20
seas of 2.5 to 3.0 m, or 8 to 10 ft. This system could become a=20
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves=20
quickly westward at about 20 to 25 kt, passing through the=20
Windward and Leeward Islands late today or tonight. Regardless of=20 development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible=20
across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands today and=20
Monday. The system is expected to reach the central Caribbean on=20
Tuesday, where conditions are expected to become less favorable=20
for additional development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft=20
is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.=20
There is a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours and
the next 7 days.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website
- https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml= __;!!DZ3fjg!4A3dGtiv-aRjt2aaaG7guGDgQZFm8ki5-ofXyIuI3PdN2RuslBHU1E69Ck6VR-F= HpgpCcFoJYgksLBtkGaHvfDgkpJM$ and the latest
Fernand NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4A3dGtiv-a= Rjt2aaaG7guGDgQZFm8ki5-ofXyIuI3PdN2RuslBHU1E69Ck6VR-FHpgpCcFoJYgksLBtkGaHvo= rpug4s$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W just west of the
Cabo Verde Islands from 22N southward to near 08N. The wave is=20
moving slowly westward around 5 kt. Nearby convection has
diminished and is isolated at best.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 54W,=20
from 21N southward through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 12.5N54W to
French Guiana, moving west at around 20 kt. Refer to the Special
Features section above for more details on these features.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from 20N in central
Haiti southward to near the NW border of Venezuela with Colombia,
moving westward around 20 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that=20
the tropical wave envelope is large and extends across most of=20
the eastern and central Caribbean, where widely scattered showers=20
and isolated thunderstorms are evident.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of=20
Mauritania near 18N16W and extends southwestward to near 10N42W.=20
The ITCZ then extends from 10N42W to 13N51W where it is broken by
the tropical wave associated with AL99. The ITCZ then resumes=20
near 11N55.5WW and runs SW to 08.5N60W at the border of Guyana and
Venezuela. Other than the convection described with the Special
Features and in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate is
noted from 05N to 12N within 270 nm of the coast of Africa.
Similar convection is found on satellite imagery within 120 nm S
of the ITCZ between 42W and 50W, and from 08N to 10.5N between 58W
and 61W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches=20
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is=20
occurring generally S of 15N and W of 76W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front persists across the northern Gulf Coast, and
continues to produce scattered moderate convection across the
central and northern Gulf waters north of 23.5N. Moderate to=20
locally fresh E to NE winds are noted north and west of the=20
Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise,=20
gentle to moderate anticyclone winds prevail across the rest of=20
the Gulf with a ridge noted along 25N/26N, with 1-3 ft seas,
locally higher in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. A stationary front will linger along the northern=20
Gulf coast into the early part of the week supporting numerous=20
showers and scattered thunderstorms mainly N of 22N. Moderate to=20
fresh NE to E winds will develop over the south-central Gulf each=20
afternoon through at least the middle of next week as a trough=20
develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at night.=20

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections=20
above.

Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across much of
the central Caribbean, due to the moderate pressure gradient in
place between higher pressure N of the region and the 1010
Colombia Low. Moderate to fresh trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail in
the E Caribbean, Windward Passage, and the Gulf of Honduras, with
locally higher seas in the NE and E Atlantic Passages. The=20
remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker=20
winds and seas of 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will return to the south-central Caribbean this evening
through Sun as central Atlantic high pressure builds W-SW across=20
the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will then expand=20
across most of central and eastern portions, and the Windward=20
Passage, Sun night through Wed as a strong tropical wave moves=20
through the basin. Locally heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds, and
squalls and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this tropical
wave across east and central portions Sun evening through late=20
Wed. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse across the Gulf of=20
Honduras at night through Tue. NW to N swell will build across the
tropical Atlantic waters and move through the Atlantic Passages=20
tonight through early Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
Tropical Storm Fernand and Invest Area AL99. Please see the=20
TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Residual northerly swell from distant Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin=20
continues to affect parts of the western and central Atlantic.=20
8-11 ft seas, with periods of 14-18 seconds, are analyzed N of=20
23N between 38W and 74W. Please note the locally different sea=20
state within this area near Tropical Storm Fernand, which is=20
described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Off the SE US coast, a=20
warm front lifting north of the discussion waters is leading to=20
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms generally north of 24N=20
and W of 73W. In the deep tropical Atlantic away from the=20
aforementioned features, moderate to locally fresh trades are=20
analyzed from 11N to 20N and west of 50W. Moderate or weaker=20
trades prevail elsewhere across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas in=20
open waters.

For the forecast, Fernand will move to just N of the area at=20
31.3N 60.1W this afternoon, then continuing away from the area to=20
33.6N 59.1W Mon morning. Central Atlantic high pressure will then=20
build W-SW and into the NW Bahamas Mon through Wed. Meanwhile,=20
large northerly swell generated by distant extratropical cyclone=20
Erin will continue to affect the W Atlantic waters through the=20
next couple of days. A stationary front will linger off the SE=20
U.S. coast into the early part of the week with fresh winds SE of=20
it. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola Mon afternoon
through Tue afternoon. Tranquil marine conditions may prevail by=20
the end of next week.=20

$$
Lewitsky

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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496=20
AXNT20 KNHC 240855
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Aug 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fernand: Tropical Storm Fernand is centered near
29.7N 60.7W at 24/0900 UTC or 260 nm SE of Bermuda, moving NNE at
13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum=20
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are
currently near 5.0 m, or 16 ft. Numerous moderate convection is=20
noted within 90 nm in the NW semicircle and 30 nm in the SE=20
semicircle of the system. Similar convection is noted from 28.5N=20
to 31N between 58W and 60W. Fernand is moving toward the north-
northeast and this motion is expected to continue for the next=20
day or two, followed by a turn to the northeast. On the forecast=20
track, Fernand should move well east of Bermuda and across the=20
open waters of the subtropical North Atlantic. Some strengthening
is forecast during the next 48 hours. A weakening trend is=20
expected by Tuesday.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99): During the past several=20
hours, showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave,=20
AL99, located about 390 nautical miles east of the Windward=20
Islands near 12.5N54W have changed little in organization.=20
Numerous moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 54W=20
and 58.5W. Associated winds are currently fresh to strong with=20
seas of 2.5 to 3.0 m, or 8 to 10 ft. This system could become a=20
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves=20
quickly westward at about 20 to 25 kt, passing through the=20
Windward and Leeward Islands late today or tonight. Regardless of=20 development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible=20
across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands today and=20
Monday. The system is expected to reach the central Caribbean on=20
Tuesday, where conditions are expected to become less favorable=20
for additional development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft=20
is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.=20
There is a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours and
the next 7 days.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website
- https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml= __;!!DZ3fjg!6cbBKUnRAf9wYFPWUhRVjhkIh7UaEhXDYINwenvGejWgvW4N5T6Y48h-YPR9F4s= --k3mLgWuf04l84pymE9Iz4-Ral0$ and the latest
Fernand NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6cbBKUnRAf= 9wYFPWUhRVjhkIh7UaEhXDYINwenvGejWgvW4N5T6Y48h-YPR9F4s--k3mLgWuf04l84pymE9I_= l3dX-8$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W just west of the
Cabo Verde Islands from 22N southward to near 08N. The wave is=20
moving slowly westward around 5 kt. Nearby convection has
diminished and is isolated at best.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 54W,=20
from 21N southward through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 12.5N54W to
French Guiana, moving west at around 20 kt. Refer to the Special
Features section above for more details on these features.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from 20N in central
Haiti southward to near the NW border of Venezuela with Colombia,
moving westward around 20 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that=20
the tropical wave envelope is large and extends across most of=20
the eastern and central Caribbean, where widely scattered showers=20
and isolated thunderstorms are evident.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of=20
Mauritania near 18N16W and extends southwestward to near 10N42W.=20
The ITCZ then extends from 10N42W to 13N51W where it is broken by
the tropical wave associated with AL99. The ITCZ then resumes=20
near 11N55.5WW and runs SW to 08.5N60W at the border of Guyana and
Venezuela. Other than the convection described with the Special
Features and in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate is
noted from 05N to 12N within 270 nm of the coast of Africa.
Similar convection is found on satellite imagery within 120 nm S
of the ITCZ between 42W and 50W, and from 08N to 10.5N between 58W
and 61W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches=20
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is=20
occurring generally S of 15N and W of 76W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front persists across the northern Gulf Coast, and
continues to produce scattered moderate convection across the
central and northern Gulf waters north of 23.5N. Moderate to=20
locally fresh E to NE winds are noted north and west of the=20
Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise,=20
gentle to moderate anticyclone winds prevail across the rest of=20
the Gulf with a ridge noted along 25N/26N, with 1-3 ft seas,
locally higher in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. A stationary front will linger along the northern=20
Gulf coast into the early part of the week supporting numerous=20
showers and scattered thunderstorms mainly N of 22N. Moderate to=20
fresh NE to E winds will develop over the south-central Gulf each=20
afternoon through at least the middle of next week as a trough=20
develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at night.=20

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections=20
above.

Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across much of
the central Caribbean, due to the moderate pressure gradient in
place between higher pressure N of the region and the 1010
Colombia Low. Moderate to fresh trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail in
the E Caribbean, Windward Passage, and the Gulf of Honduras, with
locally higher seas in the NE and E Atlantic Passages. The=20
remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker=20
winds and seas of 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will return to the south-central Caribbean this evening
through Sun as central Atlantic high pressure builds W-SW across=20
the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will then expand=20
across most of central and eastern portions, and the Windward=20
Passage, Sun night through Wed as a strong tropical wave moves=20
through the basin. Locally heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds, and
squalls and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this tropical
wave across east and central portions Sun evening through late=20
Wed. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse across the Gulf of=20
Honduras at night through Tue. NW to N swell will build across the
tropical Atlantic waters and move through the Atlantic Passages=20
tonight through early Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
Tropical Storm Fernand and Invest Area AL99. Please see the=20
TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Residual northerly swell from distant Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin=20
continues to affect parts of the western and central Atlantic.=20
8-11 ft seas, with periods of 14-18 seconds, are analyzed N of=20
23N between 38W and 74W. Please note the locally different sea=20
state within this area near Tropical Storm Fernand, which is=20
described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Off the SE US coast, a=20
warm front lifting north of the discussion waters is leading to=20
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms generally north of 24N=20
and W of 73W. In the deep tropical Atlantic away from the=20
aforementioned features, moderate to locally fresh trades are=20
analyzed from 11N to 20N and west of 50W. Moderate or weaker=20
trades prevail elsewhere across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas in=20
open waters.

For the forecast, Fernand will move to just N of the area at=20
31.3N 60.1W this afternoon, then continuing away from the area to=20
33.6N 59.1W Mon morning. Central Atlantic high pressure will then=20
build W-SW and into the NW Bahamas Mon through Wed. Meanwhile,=20
large northerly swell generated by distant extratropical cyclone=20
Erin will continue to affect the W Atlantic waters through the=20
next couple of days. A stationary front will linger off the SE=20
U.S. coast into the early part of the week with fresh winds SE of=20
it. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola Mon afternoon
through Tue afternoon. Tranquil marine conditions may prevail by=20
the end of next week.=20

$$
Lewitsky

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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437=20
AXNT20 KNHC 241755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Aug 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fernand is centered near 31.0N 60.0W at 24/1500
UTC or 260 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are to 19 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is north of 29N between 59W and 62W.
Fernand is exiting the TAFB Discussion waters. Please read the=20
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center=20
at website - https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAH= SFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!4LGwWITFH1-S0r_v67J8OauGBRJlBePPu7Hpg9jSVVyHYI7Y4daf= YLmtakRWyR26t8brBoOZ2k2Gg1jI0hLxi6xbVec$ and=20
the latest Fernand NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4LGwWITFH1= -S0r_v67J8OauGBRJlBePPu7Hpg9jSVVyHYI7Y4dafYLmtakRWyR26t8brBoOZ2k2Gg1jI0hLxX= NhmiaY$ for more details.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99): A tropical wave located just
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce shower and=20
thunderstorm activity. While satellite data indicates that the=20
wave does not appear to have a surface circulation, an Air Force=20
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the=20
area. Surface winds are strong to near-gale force, with 8-11 ft=20
seas. This system could still become a tropical depression during
the next day or two while it moves quickly westward at about 20=20
to 25 mph, passing through the Windward and Leeward Islands later=20
today and early Monday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall=20
and gusty winds to tropical storm force are likely across portions
of the Windward and Leeward Islands today and Monday. The system=20
is expected to reach the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where=20
conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional=20
development. There is a medium chance of formation within the next
48 hours and the next 7 days. Please read the latest TROPICAL=20
WEATHER OUTLOOK at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;= !!DZ3fjg!4LGwWITFH1-S0r_v67J8OauGBRJlBePPu7Hpg9jSVVyHYI7Y4dafYLmtakRWyR26t8= brBoOZ2k2Gg1jI0hLxXNhmiaY$ for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W just west of the=20
Cabo Verde Islands from 22N southward. The wave is moving slowly=20
westward around 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted at
this time.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 57W,=20
from 21N southward through AL99 to French Guiana, moving west at=20
around 20-25 kt. Refer to the Special Features section above.

Based on Upper Air Sounding Data from Kingston, Jamaica, the
tropical wave in the central Caribbean is reanalyzed along 79W,
from 20N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Satellite imagery
continues to indicate that the tropical wave envelope is large=20
and extends across most of the central and western Caribbean.
Scattered moderate convection is from the coast of Panama north to
17N and west of 79W. Additional scattered showers and tstorms are
noted elsewhere across Jamaica and the central Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of=20
Mauritania near 19N16W and extends southwestward to near 10N35W=20
then to AL99 near 13N57W. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section
above.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front persists across the northern Gulf Coast, and=20
continues to produce scattered moderate convection across the=20
northern Gulf waters north of 23N. Moderate to locally fresh WSW
winds are analyzed in the far E Gulf near the mouth of Tampa Bay.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail, with 1-3 ft
seas.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. A=20
stationary front will linger along the northern Gulf coast into=20
the early part of the week producing numerous showers and=20
scattered thunderstorms mainly N of 25N. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds will develop over the south-central Gulf each afternoon=20
through at least the middle of week as a trough develops over the=20
Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at night. Moderate seas are=20
expected with these winds.=20

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections=20
above.

Gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the
Caribbean, with locally fresh trades near the aforementioned
tropical wave axis in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms associated with a=20
tropical wave located about 175 nm east of the Windward Islands=20
have increased since yesterday. However, the wave does not appear=20
to have a surface circulation. This system could still become a=20
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves=20
quickly westward at about 15 to 20 kt, passing through the=20
Windward and Leeward Islands later today and early Monday.=20
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds=20
are likely across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands=20
today and Monday. The system is expected to reach the central=20
Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where conditions are forecast to become=20
less favorable for additional development. This wave will bring=20
increasing winds and building seas across the waters E of the=20
Lesser Antilles today, and over most of the east and central=20
Caribbean tonight through Wed. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will=20
pulse across the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Tue=20
night. NW to N swell will propagate across the tropical Atlantic=20
waters and move through the Atlantic Passages through Mon.=20

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
Tropical Storm Fernand and AL99. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES=20
section above.

Residual northerly swell from distant Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin=20
continue to affect parts of the western and central Atlantic. 8-11
ft seas, with a period of 15-17 seconds, is north of 25N between=20
30W and 65W. While significant wave heights elsewhere in open
waters have diminished to 4-7 ft, wave periods remain long at 13=20
seconds or greater. In the eastern Atlantic, swell periods are=20
near 20 seconds. Moderate or weaker trades prevail across the=20
basin.

For the forecast, Fernand will move to 32.6N 59.1W this
evening, 34.8N 57.8W Mon morning, 36.9N 56.4W Mon evening, 39.3N
54.3W Tue morning, 42.0N 51.0W Tue evening, and become
extratropical and move to 44.5N 46.0W Wed morning. Fernand will
dissipate early Thu. Meanwhile, large northerly swell generated
by distant extratropical cyclone Erin will continue to affect
the W Atlantic waters through the next couple of days. A
stationary front will linger off the SE U.S. coast into the
early part of the week with fresh winds SE of it. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola late Mon afternoon
through Tue night.=20=20

$$
Mahoney

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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964
AXNT20 KNHC 242355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Aug 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W west of the Cabo
Verde Islands from 22N southward. The wave is moving westward
around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 58W,
from 21N southward through AL99 to French Guiana, moving west at
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to
16N between 57W and 61W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has been repositioned, and is
analyzed along 82W from 19N southward. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is occurring from 13N to 18N west of 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and extends southwestward to near 10N35W
then to AL99 near 13N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 15N east of 22W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front persists across the northern Gulf, and
continues to produce scattered moderate convection across the
northern Gulf waters north of 22N. A surface trough has been
analyzed over the central Bay of Campeche, and moderate to fresh
N to NE winds are noted in the eastern bay and north of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds
prevail, with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a stationary front will linger along the
northern Gulf likely through midweek generating numerous showers
and thunderstorms mainly N of 25N. A weak low may develop along
the frontal boundary by late Tue into Wed. A weak ridge will
continue to dominate the remainder of the Gulf region supporting
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds will develop over the south-central Gulf each afternoon
through at least the middle of week as a trough develops over the
Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at night. Slight to moderate
seas are expected with these winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves sections above.

Strong to locally near-gale force winds are occurring in the Gulf
of Venezuela and offshore of northern Colombia as a strengthening
pressure gradient develops between a 1009 mb low over northern
Colombia and high pressure to the north. Locally rough seas to 8
ft are occurring offshore of Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to strong
NE winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, ahead of a tropical
wave moving through the western Caribbean. In the eastern basin,
an approaching tropical wave is leading to fresh to strong NE
winds, including through the Atlantic Passages. Rough seas of 8 to
10 ft are noted near this wave. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail in the northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the system located near the Windward Islands does
not have a closed low-level circulation. However, the system is
still producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and
winds to near gale force, and these conditions are expected to
affect the Windward and Leeward Islands tonight and Monday. The
system is expected to reach the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday,
where conditions are forecast to become less favorable for
additional development. This system associated with a tropical
wave will bring increasing winds and building seas across the east
and central Caribbean tonight through Wed. Fresh to strong E to
SE winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night
through Tue night. NW to N swell will continue to propagate across
the tropical Atlantic waters and move through the Atlantic
Passages through at least Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Rough seas of 10-14 ft and strong to near-gale force winds are
noted south of the center of Tropical Storm Fernand, centered
north of the area near 31.8N 59.8W. Residual northerly swell
from distant Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin continue to affect parts
of the central Atlantic. Widespread 8-11 ft seas, with a period
of 15-17 seconds, is north of 25N between 30W and 65W. While
significant wave heights elsewhere in open waters have diminished
to 4-7 ft, wave periods remain long at 13 seconds or greater. In
the eastern Atlantic, swell periods are near 20 seconds. Moderate
or weaker trades prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fernand is near 31.8N 59.8W at 5
PM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 11 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1009 mb. Fernand will move to 33.2N 58.9W Mon morning,
35.1N 57.6W Mon afternoon, 37.6N 55.7W Tue morning, 40.0N 53.0W
Tue afternoon, become post-tropical and move to 43.0N 49.0W Wed
morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. As Fernand continues to
moves away from the forecast area, a ridge will build back across
most of the region. A frontal boundary will linger off the SE U.S.
coast likely through Wed with fresh to locally strong winds SE of
it. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola late Mon
afternoon through Tue night. Meanwhile, large northerly swell
generated by distant extratropical cyclone Erin will continue to
affect the W Atlantic waters through the next couple of days.

$$
ADAMS

= = = = = = =
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