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  • ADVISORY: Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 29a

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 18, 2025 17:49:53
    252
    WTNT35 KNHC 181749
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
    200 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

    ...ERIN LIKELY TO BECOME EVEN LARGER OVER THE COMING DAYS...


    SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...23.5N 71.1W
    ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
    ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Turks and Caicos Islands
    * Southeast Bahamas

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Central Bahamas

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

    Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer
    Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
    near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 71.1 West. Erin is moving toward
    the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northwest
    is expected later today, followed by a turn to the north on
    Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
    pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas today and move between
    Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of
    the week.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
    Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
    today. Erin is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane
    through the middle of this week.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
    miles (370 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

    RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
    rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through
    Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas east from San
    Salvador Island. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
    locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
    associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
    associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
    and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm
    conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
    today through Tuesday.

    SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
    the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
    next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
    from your local weather forecast office for more information.

    A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
    at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

    STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
    onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
    Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
    waves.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch


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