423
WTNT35 KNHC 191737
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...LARGE HURRICANE ERIN NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 72.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and for the Southeast
Bahamas, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the
Central Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light, Virginia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests in Bermuda, the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast, and the southern
New England coast should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 72.5 West. Erin is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight followed by
a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward motion on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to
the east of the Bahamas today and tonight, and then move over the
western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few
days.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of the Turks and Caicos today and through
tonight for the Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches,
with storm total amounts to 8 inches, are possible, which could lead
to flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall is possible on the
Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday with
potential for 1 to 2 inches and a local maximum of 4 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions
of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area north of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light
beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)