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WTNT45 KNHC 201514 CCA
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Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 37...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Corrected eye dropsonde wind to 19 kt and minimum pressure to 941 mb

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the hurricane has strengthened with peak 700 mb flight-level
winds of 115 kt well to the east of the center. Using a reduction
factor somewhat greater than that which would be used for eyewall
winds, the intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory. A dropsonde
in the eye measured a surface pressure of 943 mb with 19 kt winds
so the minimum central pressure has fallen to an estimated 941 mb.
The hurricane has become better organized on satellite images this
morning with a symmetric-looking cloud pattern and numerous banding
features. The eye has again become evident on the imagery and
upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants.

Erin's is now moving northward with an initial motion estimate of
350/11 kt. There has been no significant change in the track
forecast guidance since the last advisory package. Over the
next couple of days, Erin should move northward along the western
periphery of a 500 mb high, and then turn northeastward as it
rounds the northwestern side of the high. Then, the system should
accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward while moving within
the southern belt of the the mid-latitude westerlies. The official
track forecast is close to the previous one and in good agreement
with the various dynamical model consensus predictions.

Erin still has a rather broad inner core but the eyewall appears to
be reforming. The system is over warm waters and within a moist
low- to mid-level air mass. Although the vertical wind shear is
currently light, the SHIPS model predicts a significant increase in
shear in 12-24 hours. Therefore the hurricane has the potential to
strengthen some more in the short term, particularly if the inner
core becomes even better defined. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly
shear is predicted to become prohibitively high, so a weakening
trend is likely to commence later on Thursday. Simulated satellite
imagery from the global models suggest that Erin will become an
extratropical cyclone in 96 hours or sooner.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the
risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind
field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the
wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today. The
storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 30.1N 73.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 32.0N 73.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 38.6N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 42.5N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 47.4N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1200Z 52.5N 27.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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