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  • STRMDISC: Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 3

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 29, 2025 08:33:58
    103
    WTNT42 KNHC 290833
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
    400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

    The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the
    depression over the Bay of Campeche this morning and found that the
    system is quite disorganized. In fact, the depression may not even
    have a well-defined circulation. Even though the structure of the
    system is poorly organized, the aircraft data and ship observations
    indicate that the winds have increased some. Based on that
    information, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 30 kt.

    The depression has been moving a little to the south of the previous
    forecast, and the latest initial motion estimate is 290/8 kt. The
    system is expected to turn northwestward later today as it tracks
    along the western periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. This
    motion should take the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico late today
    or tonight. Most of the strong winds are expected to occur to the
    north of the center along the coast within the tropical storm
    warning area this afternoon through early Monday.

    Some slight additional strengthening is possible before the system
    moves inland. However, none of the models show much intensification
    and given the poor initial structure and limited time over water,
    significant strengthening seems highly unlikely. The system is
    expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of eastern Mexico on
    Monday.

    Key Messages:

    1. Tropical Depression Two will produce heavy rainfall across
    portions of northeastern Mexico. Life-threatening flooding and
    mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

    2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
    later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the
    tropical storm warning area.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 29/0900Z 19.9N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 29/1800Z 20.6N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 30/0600Z 21.6N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
    36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi


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