1. Forum
  2. FidoNET
  3. WEATHER.TROPIC

  • STRMDISC: Post-tropical Cyclone Erin Discussion Number 46

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, August 22, 2025 20:32:48
    849
    WTNT45 KNHC 222032
    TCDAT5

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Discussion Number 46
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
    500 PM AST Fri Aug 22 2025

    Erin has now become a powerful extratropical low. While there is
    still deep convection near the center, scatterometer data clearly
    shows that Erin has become frontal. Thus, extratropical transition
    has been completed, and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial
    intensity remains 80 kt based on the multiple earlier scatterometer
    winds near 70 kt, with very large gale- and storm-force wind-radii
    noted.

    While the general track and intensity forecast is about the same as
    before, one specific marine hazard to highlight is the consistent
    development of a strong sting jet in the southern semicircle of Erin
    by Sunday, as well as a very large hurricane-force wind field.
    Model guidance now suggest that a maximum of 80-90 kt is possible,
    and the NHC intensity forecast is raised to 85 kt then. No other
    noteworthy changes were made to the previous forecast.

    Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
    Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
    header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    KEY MESSAGES:

    1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip
    currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
    the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
    Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
    local authorities, and beach warning flags.

    2. Some coastal flooding is expected at times of high tide along
    portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through
    tonight, making some roads impassable. Large waves along the coast
    could also cause significant beach erosion and overwash.

    3. Gale-force wind gusts are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia
    today and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 22/2100Z 40.0N 59.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    12H 23/0600Z 41.5N 54.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    24H 23/1800Z 44.0N 45.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    36H 24/0600Z 48.0N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    48H 24/1800Z 52.0N 27.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    60H 25/0600Z 55.0N 23.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 25/1800Z 58.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 26/1800Z 59.0N 21.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 27/1800Z 57.0N 17.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    Forecaster Blake


    = = = = = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)