126=20
AXNT20 KNHC 231831 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Aug 23 2025

Corrected last sentence for the tropical wave along 45W in the
Tropical Waves Section to describe the area of moderate winds.

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Satellite images and Air Force Reserve aircraft reconnaissance
data indicate that an area of low pressure about 400 miles south-
southeast of Bermuda continues to get better-defined, and recent satellite-derived winds indicate that the low pressure area has
gale-force winds east of the center. Seas are currently 8-11 ft.
This system is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon
or evening, with further intensification likely through Sunday
while the low moves northward at 10 to 15 mph over the
southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the
progress of this system, though the threat to that island appears
to be less than yesterday. There is a high chance of formation=20
within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather=20
Outlook for more information regarding AL90 at website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7z9YKtDIli= uWUjcVHEEO41CL96EDJaF-w1XCmzPk_Rlh8VGHqXpLBZbhYTQIbsWi4sXjAsmzt_wsmSEpmCJUq= tfT4WE$ for more details. For additional information,=20
including gale warnings, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!7z9YKtDIliuWUjcVHEEO41CL96EDJaF-w1XCmzPk_Rlh8VGHqXpLBZbhYTQIbsWi4= sXjAsmzt_wsmSEpmCJUIOrQRzI$ .

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, passing through
the western Cabo Verde Islands, from 22N southward. The wave is
moving westward at approximately 5-10 kt. No significant=20
convection is noted with the tropical wave at this time.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, from 21N=20
southward through a 1011 mb low (AL99) near 12N48W, moving west=20
at around 15 to 20 kt. AL99 has a LOW chance of developing into a
tropical cyclone through the next 48 hours. For more information,
please see the TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__= ;!!DZ3fjg!7z9YKtDIliuWUjcVHEEO41CL96EDJaF-w1XCmzPk_Rlh8VGHqXpLBZbhYTQIbsWi4= sXjAsmzt_wsmSEpmCJUqtfT4WE$ . Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N to 14N between 48W and 53W. The latest
scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong SE to NE winds near
AL99; seas are 7-9 ft in these winds. Moderate winds are elsewhere
from 10N to 20N between 42W and 57W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 20N southward,
including the Mona Passage, and moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Visible satellite imagery indicates that the wave envelope is=20
large and extends across most of the eastern and central=20
Caribbean, where scattered showers and tstorms are evident.

The tropical wave previously analyzed in the far western Caribbean
has moved inland over Central America. For additional information
on this tropical wave, please see the Tropical Weather Discussion
for the East Pacific Ocean (TWDEP) at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://ww= w.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7z9YKtDIliuWUjcVHEEO41CL96EDJaF-w1XCmzPk_Rlh8VG= HqXpLBZbhYTQIbsWi4sXjAsmzt_wsmSEpmCJUqtfT4WE$ .

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of=20
Mauritania near 18N16W, then meanders southwestward and then
westward to 11.5N50W, just west of AL99. Convection is limited to
the area near AL99 and is described in the SPECIAL FEATURES
section above.=20

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front persists across the northern Gulf Coast, and
continues to produce scattered moderate convection across the
northern Gulf waters north of 25N between 82W and 98W, including
inland over the Florida Peninsula. The benign, diurnal surface
trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE=20
to S winds prevail across the basin, with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the=20
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will=20
remain active across the northern Gulf through the weekend as an=20
old front meanders along the north Gulf coasts and slowly=20
dissipates. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the=20
south- central Gulf each afternoon through evening this weekend=20
into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and moves westward at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean, from
the coast of Panama north to 12N between the coast of Colombia and
80W. The latest scatterometer pass from this morning indicates
gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean, accompanied by 3-6
ft seas.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally=20
rough seas will prevail over the central Caribbean this evening=20
through the next several days as central Atlantic high pressure=20
builds W-SW across the western Atlantic, in the wake of distant=20 extratropical cyclone Erin. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will=20
pulse across the Gulf of Honduras at night. Moderate to fresh=20
trades are expected in the eastern Caribbean and across the=20
approach to the Windward Passage, increasing to fresh to strong=20
late in the weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, showers and=20 thunderstorms continue in association with a central Atlantic=20
tropical wave along 49W this morning. Some development of this=20
system could occur during the next few days while the system moves
quickly westward at near 20 kt. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty=20
winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands and the
eastern Caribbean as the system moves through on Sun and Mon. By=20
the middle of next week, conditions over the central Caribbean are
expected to be unfavorable for further development.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on=20
Invest Area AL90. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Residual northerly swell from Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin=20
continues to affect parts of the western and central Atlantic.=20
8-12 ft seas, with periods of 12-14 seconds, are analyzed north=20
of a line from 31N45W to 24N62W to 31N75W. Please note the locally
different sea state within this area near AL90, which is described
in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. In the deep tropical Atlantic,
fresh to strong trades are analyzed south of 05N and west of 35W.
Light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere across the basin, with=20
4-7 ft seas in open waters.

For the forecast, large northerly swell generated by=20
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin will continue to affect the W Atlantic
waters through the next few days. In the wake of Erin, central=20
Atlantic high pressure will build W-SW toward the central Bahamas=20
and the Straits of Florida. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms=20
have become better organized in association with low pressure,=20
AL90, near 25.5N62W. Gale-force winds are expected to develop with
this system late this afternoon or evening as it moves northward,
and is expected to cross 31N Sun evening. Environmental=20
conditions appear conducive for further development of this=20
system, and a tropical storm is expected to form this weekend. A=20
slow moving cold front will move off the SE U.S. into the NW=20
waters by the middle of next week.=20

$$
Mahoney

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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