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  • FORECAST: Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast/advisory Number 1

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, August 23, 2025 20:42:09
    495
    WTNT21 KNHC 232042
    TCMAT1

    TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
    2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 61.4W AT 23/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
    34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 61.4W AT 23/2100Z
    AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 61.7W

    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.0N 61.0W
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.4N 60.3W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.5W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 60NE 100SE 30SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.8N 58.5W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 60NE 100SE 40SW 20NW.

    FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.7W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 50NE 100SE 30SW 20NW.

    FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 41.3N 54.0W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 50NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 47.0N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 61.4W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE



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