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  • STRMDISC: Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 2

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, August 24, 2025 02:32:35
    260
    WTNT41 KNHC 240232
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
    1100 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025

    Fernand is still trying to become better organized this evening. A
    recent scatterometer pass around 0052 UTC depicted a peak wind speed
    around 31 kt, southeast of the center. Latest satellite images show
    there has been a recent burst in the last few hours over the
    low-level center, although some of the outer rain bands have
    diminished. Subjective and objective intensity estimates remain
    around 35-40 kt. Using a blend of the estimates and recent satellite
    trends, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.

    The lastest motion is north-northeast at 015/14. Fernand is being
    steered around the western edge of the subtropical ridge, which will
    cause the storm to move north-northeastward during the next few
    days. The system will then turn more northeastward within the flow
    between the ridge and an approaching trough, and accelerate over the
    north Atlantic. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement and the
    latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, near the corrected-consensus HCCA.

    Fernand is within a favorable environment for intensification, with
    warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear. However, models
    depict some mid-level dry air near it, which may hinder the
    strengthening rate and structure. The intensity guidance has come
    down slightly this cycle, and the latest NHC forecast follows those
    trends with a peak intensity now at 55 kt, on the higher end of the
    guidance envelope. The storm should begin to weaken as SSTs cool and
    wind shear increases by day 3, and the system will likely become
    post-tropical by day 4.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 24/0300Z 28.8N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 24/1200Z 30.6N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
    24H 25/0000Z 32.9N 59.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 25/1200Z 35.0N 58.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
    48H 26/0000Z 37.4N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
    60H 26/1200Z 40.0N 55.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
    72H 27/0000Z 43.0N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    96H 28/0000Z 49.0N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Kelly


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