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  • STRMDISC: Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 4

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, August 24, 2025 14:56:20
    796
    WTNT41 KNHC 241456
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
    1100 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

    Fernand has become a bit better organized during the past few
    hours. Convection has reformed with a banding pattern around the
    center, with some expanding outflow. Satellite intensity estimates
    are about the same as before, so the initial intensity will remain
    35 kt, though some of the objective estimates have recently
    increased.

    The storm has been moving through an environment that is somewhat
    drier with more shear than anticipated. Consequently, Fernand
    has changed little overnight. The environment still should support
    some gradual strengthening, which is the general idea of the model
    guidance. The new NHC forecast is about the same as the last one,
    with a similar peak occuring on Monday, perhaps a bit sooner than
    earlier thinking. Decreasing SSTs and increasing shear should
    cause weakening later on Tuesday, with extratropical transition
    anticipated early Wednesday and a quick dissipation on Thursday.

    The initial motion is 020/13 kt. Fernand is forecast to move
    on this general course for the next couple of days around the
    northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. The storm will likely
    be embedded in the mid-latitude flow by late Tuesday, causing a
    faster track to the northeast. While the model guidance remains in
    good agreement, guidance has been shifting eastward to time, which
    the Google Deep Mind (GDMI) model first sniffed out yesterday. The
    new NHC forecast is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope
    and is east of the previous official forecast.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 24/1500Z 31.0N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 25/0000Z 32.6N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
    24H 25/1200Z 34.8N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
    36H 26/0000Z 36.9N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
    48H 26/1200Z 39.3N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
    60H 27/0000Z 42.0N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
    72H 27/1200Z 44.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Blake


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