1. Forum
  2. FidoNET
  3. WEATHER.TROPIC

  • STRMDISC: Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 6

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 25, 2025 02:35:25
    103
    WTNT41 KNHC 250235
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 6
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
    1100 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

    Fernand continues to produce bursts of convection near the low-level
    center, with cold cloud tops notes in satellite images. Microwave
    imagery shows an improving structure with curved banding and a small
    inner core trying to become established. Subjective and objective
    satellite intensity estimates range between 40 to 50 kt. Using a
    blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.

    The initial motion remains north-northeast at an estimated motion of
    025/11 kt. The system is being steered around the western periphery
    of a subtropical ridge. This north-northeast to northeast motion is
    anticipated throughout the forecast period as the system is steered
    around the ridge and into the mid-latitude southwesterlies, with an
    increase is forward speed. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the
    previous, and lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and Google
    DeepMind aids.

    Fernand is forecast to gradually strengthen during the 12-24h, as
    the system remains over warm water and light wind shear. However,
    there is some drier mid-level air depicted via satellite and latest
    SHIPS guidance, which may hinder convective organization at times.
    By late Monday or Tuesday, vertical wind shear begins to increase
    and sea surface temperatures decrease significantly along the
    forecast track. This will cause the system to weaken, and become
    post-tropical on Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
    the previous one, and remains near the consensus aids.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 25/0300Z 32.6N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 25/1200Z 34.0N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
    24H 26/0000Z 36.2N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 26/1200Z 38.7N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
    48H 27/0000Z 41.5N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
    60H 27/1200Z 44.4N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Kelly


    = = = = = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)