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  • STRMDISC: Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 7

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 25, 2025 08:42:59
    319
    WTNT41 KNHC 250842
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 7
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
    500 AM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

    Fernand continues to produce a concentrated area of convection
    near and to the south of the center, although recent AMSR2 and GMI
    microwave overpasses show some separation between the center and
    the convection. There are also ragged outer convective bands in
    the northeastern semicircle. The various satellite intensity
    estimates are in the 40-50 kt range, and they have not changed much
    during the past 6 h. Based on this, the initial intensity remains
    45 kt.

    The initial motion remains north-northeast or 025/10 kt. Fernand is
    being steered around the western periphery of the subtropical
    ridge and is moving into the southern portion of the mid-latitude
    westerlies. A general north-northeastward to northeastward motion
    is expected with some increase in forward speed during the
    remainder of the cyclone's life. The latest track guidance has
    shifted a little to the left or northwest, and the new forecast
    track thus lies a little to the left of the previous forecast.
    Overall, the new forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA
    corrected consensus.

    Fernand is almost out of time to strengthen. It is approaching an
    area of increasing shear, and after 12 h sea surface temperatures
    decrease along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast will
    show a little more strengthening today, followed by a weakening
    trend as Fernand moves into the less favorable environment. The
    cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by 48 h over cold water,
    and it is now forecast to degenerate to a trough by 60 h in
    agreement with the global model guidance.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 25/0900Z 33.7N 58.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 25/1800Z 35.3N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
    24H 26/0600Z 37.6N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 26/1800Z 40.3N 53.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
    48H 27/0600Z 43.6N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    60H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Beven


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