1. Forum
  2. FidoNET
  3. WEATHER.TROPIC

  • STRMDISC: Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 8

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 25, 2025 14:57:33
    890
    WTNT41 KNHC 251457
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 8
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
    1100 AM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

    A large burst of persistent convection remains in the southeastern
    quadrant of Fernand, with 1-minute GOES-19 visible imagery
    suggesting that the low-level center is positioned on the
    northwestern edge of the burst. Scatterometer data indicate that
    the maximum winds have increased to about 50 kt, so that will be
    the initial intensity. Little change in strength is anticipated
    today, followed by weakening commencing tomorrow due to Fernand
    reaching cooler waters with increasing shear. The model envelope
    is fairly narrow, and the new NHC intensity forecast is quite
    similar to the previous one and the model consensus.

    The initial motion is north-northeast or 025/12 kt. A general north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected with some
    increase in forward speed during the remainder of the cyclone's
    life due to steering from the subtropical ridge and a mid-latitude
    trough. There are some differences on whether Fernand is picked up
    by the trough, like the GFS solution, or more shunted to the
    southeast, displayed by the ECMWF/Google Deep Mind solutions. The
    official forecast is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope,
    closer to the latter models and the previous NHC forecast.
    Post-tropical transition is expected on Wednesday due to cold
    waters, with a fast dissipation by Thursday as the weak cyclone
    opens up into a trough.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 25/1500Z 34.2N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
    12H 26/0000Z 36.0N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
    24H 26/1200Z 38.5N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 27/0000Z 41.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
    48H 27/1200Z 44.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Blake


    = = = = = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)