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  • STRMDISC: Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 12

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, August 26, 2025 14:38:24
    611
    WTNT41 KNHC 261438
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 12
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
    1100 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

    Fernand has not produced deep convection near its center since
    about 2 AM. Based on a blend of subjective and objective satellite
    intensity estimates, and a partial ASCAT pass, the initial
    intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. Fernand is moving over
    a cool eddy of about 25 degrees Celsius in the Gulf Stream, which
    could explain its loss of convection. However, the storm is
    expected to move over a warm eddy later this afternoon and evening,
    and SHIPS suggests a short period of increased upper-level
    divergence as well. These conditions could allow redevelopment of
    deep convection, keeping Fernand going as a tropical cyclone for a
    bit longer. In fact, both the GFS and ECWMF show this
    redevelopment, along with an increase in Fernand's maximum winds by
    tomorrow morning. While confidence in this scenario is not
    particularly high, the NHC forecast has been modified to show the
    potential of slight restrengthening over the next 24 hours, with
    post-tropical transition not occurring until 36 hours. Most of the
    global models show the circulation opening up into a trough by 48
    hours, and that is when dissipation is shown in the official
    forecast.

    The initial motion is northeastward, or 040/11 kt. A continued
    northeastward motion is expected until Fernand dissipates, and no
    significant changes were made to the official track forecast.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 26/1500Z 37.6N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 27/0000Z 38.9N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 27/1200Z 40.4N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
    36H 28/0000Z 41.9N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


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