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  • STRMDISC: Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 16

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 27, 2025 14:59:10
    758
    WTNT41 KNHC 271459
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
    1100 AM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

    Fernand's center is exposed to the west of a remaining band of deep
    convection, with the circulation itself a bit elongated. Satellite
    intensity estimates still encompass a rather large range--from 30
    kt to about 45 kt. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, pending
    an ASCAT pass which we may not receive until after this advisory is
    released.

    Since last evening, convection appears to have had a stronger
    influence on Fernand's motion compared to the prevailing steering
    flow. The 12-hour average motion has been eastward, or 085 degrees
    at 10 kt. Assuming the convective influences lessen, the track
    models insist that Fernand should resume an acceleration toward the east-northeast very soon, with that motion continuing for the next
    day or two. Fernand is currently over sea surface temperatures of
    about 25 degrees Celsius, but it is expected to move over the north
    wall of the Gulf Stream later today, with SSTs falling to 23-24
    degrees Celsius by this evening. These cooler waters should cause
    Fernand's deep convection to gradually decay through the remainder
    of the day, and the cyclone could become post-tropical as early as
    tonight. Winds are likely to remain at gale force, largely due to
    the system's increasing forward speed. Dissipation--when the
    circulation opens up into a trough--is likely in 36-48 hours.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 27/1500Z 38.4N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
    12H 28/0000Z 39.7N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
    24H 28/1200Z 41.6N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    36H 29/0000Z 43.6N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    48H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


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