095=20
AXNT20 KNHC 190601
TWDAT=20
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Oct 19 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Large Swell Event: Northerly swell generated from a=20
hurricane force low over the Atlantic waters well north of the=20
discussion area will generate rough to very rough seas over the=20
western Atlantic today and in the north central Atlantic waters=20
through late Sun night. Seas in excess of 12 ft and greater, with
period of 12-14 seconds will continue to spread southeastward=20
today, covering the waters north of 25N between 43W and 70W by=20
tonight. The swell will then start to subside over the discussion=20
waters allowing for seas to lower below 12 ft tonight. Seas with=20
this swell will peak to near 18 ft over the waters north of about=20
30N between 50W and 65W today.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website -=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!7i3Zt1TK4TrAx54ACUVtyHJMTVTwfXnrBWwbe_Tyz9HBxwy9ZLcJroFzLq0xNlyEM= _U0FFXeyg6LDPo_Og3VhNcLfHk$ for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24W/25W=20
from from 02N to 14N moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered=20
moderate convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from
08N to 11N and within 30 nm of the wave axis from 05N to 06N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W from 02N=20
to 11N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate=20
convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 05N to 07N.
An Atlantic tropical wave, Invest AL98, has its axis near 55W=20
from 04N to 18N, with low pressure of 1013 mb along the axis near=20
13N. This system is quickly moving westward at about 22 kt.=20
Satellite imagery shows a concentrated and persistent area of=20
numerous strong convection that has become quite symmetrical in=20
appearance during the past few hours from 10N to 14N between 53W=20
and 57W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave and=20
low from 12N to 14N between 53W and 59W. A 0129Z Metop-C ASCAT=20
satellite data pass from last night captured an extensive area of
20 to 25 kt winds within 180 nm either side of the wave axis. The
ASCAT pass indicates several 30 kt wind barbs embedded within the
20 to 25 kt winds. Environmental conditions are expected to limit
development of the system during the next couple of days as it=20
quickly westward bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the=20
Windward Islands beginning later today and continuing through Mon=20
morning. By the middle to latter part of the week, environmental=20
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development,=20
and a tropical depression could form while the system slows down=20
over the central Caribbean Sea.
Ahead of the previous described tropical wave, a tropical wave
has crosses into the eastern Caribbean Sea near 62W south of 18N.
It is moving westward near 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows=20
isolated showers and thunderstorms within 60 nm either side of the
wave south of 14N. Latest scatterometer satellite data over the=20
eastern Caribbean reveals mostly fresh northeast to east winds=20
across and near the wave axis.
=20
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and=20
continues southwestward to near 06N25W. Segments of the ITCZ=20
extend from 06N26W to 05N37W, and from 06N38W to 04N50W. Aside=20
from convection related to tropical waves as discussed in=20
the section above, scattered moderate convection is within=20
120 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-44W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure of 1020 mb is centered offshore the southeastern
U.S. A ridge extends from the high west-southwestward to the=20
central Gulf. Moderate to fresh east-southeast winds are south=20
of 26N reaching eastward to the Straits of Florida while fresh=20
southeast to south winds are north of 26N. Seas are 4 to 5 ft with
these winds, except for slightly higher seas 5 to 6 ft in the
Straits of Florida. Seas are 2 to 4 ft elsewhere under light
to gentle southeast to south winds, except for moderate south to=20
southwest winds offshore Texas to near 95W, and for moderate
southeast winds just south of Tampico to 20N and east from there=20
to near 96W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend from far southeastern=20
Louisianan southward for about 60 nm between 89W and 90W. A moist
and convergent low-level southeast to south wind flow is most=20
likely helping to sustain this activity.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh S to SE winds and slight to=20
moderate seas will prevail over the eastern Gulf into Sun. A cold=20
front will move into the NW Gulf this morning, then slide=20
southeastward across the rest of the basin through Mon. Moderate=20
N to NE winds are expected north of the cold front, with locally=20
fresh winds possible north of 26N into Mon morning. High pressure=20
will build in the wake of the front, leading to gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas over the Gulf early next week.=20
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The gradient between an area of broad high pressure over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in the Caribbean=20
and in northern South America is allowing for generally moderate=20
to fresh trade winds east of about 76W and for gentle to moderate=20
east to southeast trade winds west of 76W. Latest altimeter=20
satellite data passes show seas of 2 to 4 ft, except for slightly=20
higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in the northeast part of the basin and 4=20
to 6 ft south of 15N between 64W and 68W.
Satellite imagery shows an area of scattered showers and=20
thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean north of 18N and=20
west of 84W, including the Yucatan Channel and coastal sections of
the northeast section of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are north of 18N and east of 84W,=20
including over portions of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. This=20
activity is mainly a result of lingering moisture from an old=20
frontal trough, further aided by convergent trade wind flow.=20
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are impacting=20
southern Windward Islands from St Vincent to Grenada, ahead of the
approaching tropical waves. Clusters of these thunderstorms are=20
training in lines from east to west, and could bring heavy=20
rainfall to these islands.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected over
the south-central and eastern sections of the basin today=20
as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Long-period
north swell will lead to rough seas through the Atlantic passages
and over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles Sun into early=20
next week. A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east
of the Windward Islands is producing a large and persistent area=20
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are=20
expected to limit development during the next couple of days as=20
the system moves quickly westward bringing heavy rainfall and=20
gusty winds to the Windward Islands beginning later today and=20
continuing through Mon morning. By the middle to latter part of=20
the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become more=20
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form=20
while the system slows down over the central Caribbean Sea.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for further details=20
on a large swell event that will impact some sections of the=20
north-central waters through the weekend, and details about the
tropical wave/Invest AL98W near 55W.
A cold front is analyzed from near 31N45W southwestward to 25N55W
and to 23N61W, where it becomes a stationary front to the=20
vicinity of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are along and near the cold fornt. Isolated=20
showers and thunderstorms are along and near the stationary front,
with the exception of scattered showers and thunderstorms from=20
20N to 22N between 71W and 73W and near the coast of Hispaniola
and eastern Cuba. To the NW of the frontal boundary, a 1021 mb=20
high is just north of the area near 32N75W, with its associated=20
broad ridge covering the waters west of 75W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and the frontal boundary is resulting in fresh=20
to strong west to northwest winds behind the front to near 66W and
north of 28N. Fresh to strong southwest winds are along and east=20
of the front to near 44W north of 26N. Seas exceed 8 ft north of=20
21N between a line from 31N40W to 21N67W and the Bahamas, and also
north and northeast of the Bahamas. To the east of the front in=20
the eastern part of the Atlantic, a 1022 mb high is analyzed at=20
27N37W, with its associated broad ridging present over the waters=20
north of 19N east of about 50W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds
are from 21N to 31N between 36W and 47W along with seas of 4 to 5
ft west to northwest swell. Otherwise, outside of the area of=20
winds and seas associated with Invest AL98 as described in the=20
Special Features section, moderate to fresh trade winds and seas=20
of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell are south of 20N between 32W and 61W.=20
Gentle to moderate northeast winds are elsewhere, except for=20
moderate to fresh northeast winds from 20N to 30N between 24W and=20
36W. Seas are in the range of 4 to 6 ft over these waters.=20
For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will become=20 stationary along roughly 22N early today, where is will gradually
dissipate. Fresh west to northwest winds over the northeast part=20
of the area will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds today.=20
Widespread rough seas will continue north of 20N and east of 77W=20
through early this afternoon, with rough seas expanding=20
southeastward through the Greater Antilles Atlantic Passages=20
today. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft are expected north of=20
25N and east of 70W through Sun afternoon. Rough seas will slowly=20
subside from west to east Sun into early next week. Elsewhere,=20
moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds are expected=20
in the Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida through
this morning as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic=20
this weekend. A series of cold fronts are forecast to move off the
coast of the southeastern United States early next week, leading=20
to increasing north winds offshore of Florida.=20
$$
Aguirre
=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)