788
WTNT43 KNHC 051455
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Satellite images suggest that Chantal has been organizing and
gaining strength. The storm is still asymmetric though, with most
of the associated showers and thunderstorms located near and to the
east of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently
investigating the system and have found that the pressure has
dropped to 1007 mb. The plane has yet to sample the area of strong thunderstorms, where the highest winds are likely occurring. The
initial intensity is set at 35 kt for now. The outer rainbands are
beginning to reach portions of South and North Carolina, and
conditions along the coast within the watch and warning areas are
expected to continue to deteriorate throughout the day.

Chantal has barely moved since last night, but a motion to the
north-northwest is expected to begin soon. The main steering
features appear to be a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a
narrow mid-level ridge across the mid-Atlantic region. The flow
between these features should cause Chantal to move inland over
South Carolina Sunday morning. It should be noted that center
reformations are possible, which could cause some erratic motion.
After landfall, a turn to the northeast is expected when the storm
moves on the western side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies
close to the previous one, and the latest HCCA and Google Deep Mind
solutions.

Additional strengthening seems likely in the short term as Chantal
is expected to remain over warm water and move into a lower wind
shear environment. In addition, the shear direction is expected to
shift from southwesterly to southerly, which is more conducive for strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than
the previous one, and in line with the latest HMON, HAFS-A, and
HAFS-B guidance. After landfall, steady weakening is expected until
the system dissipates in 48 to 60 hours.

Chantal is expected to remain a lopsided system during the next day
or so. Therefore, the strongest winds are anticipated to occur to
the right of the landfall location.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could
occur within more urbanized areas in the coastal plain of the
Carolinas.

3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 31.1N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik


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