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  • FORECAST: Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast/advisory Number 8

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, October 23, 2025 08:37:54
    117
    WTNT23 KNHC 230837
    TCMAT3

    TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
    0900 UTC THU OCT 23 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 74.9W AT 23/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
    34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
    4 M SEAS....140NE 60SE 40SW 120NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 74.9W AT 23/0900Z
    AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 74.6W

    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.2N 75.0W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.6N 75.0W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.0N 75.0W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.4N 75.1W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
    34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.6N 75.4W
    MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
    34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

    FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.7N 76.0W
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
    34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 77.0W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
    34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 17.1N 78.0W
    MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
    50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
    34 KT...190NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 74.9W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1200Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

    $$
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



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