453
WTNT33 KNHC 231739
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST COAST OF
HAITI, WITH HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 75.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southern peninsula
of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
15.5 North, longitude 75.3 West. Melissa is moving toward the
north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward motion is
forecast during the next day or two, followed by a westward turn
over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to
move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed
by more rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to
become a hurricane in a couple of days and a major hurricane by the
end of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti and Jamaica beginning on late Friday or Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti and Jamaica earlier
on Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 6 to 12 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday. However, uncertainty in
Melissa's track and forward speed reduces confidence in the exact
totals. Regardless, significant, life-threatening flash flooding
and numerous landslides are expected.

Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday. Flash and
urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding impacts may
increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin



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