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  • FORECAST: Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast/advisory Number 13

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, October 24, 2025 14:49:28
    640
    WTNT23 KNHC 241449
    TCMAT3

    TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
    1500 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 74.6W AT 24/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
    34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
    4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 15SW 105NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 74.6W AT 24/1500Z
    AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 75.0W

    FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 74.5W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 74.6W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
    34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 50NW.

    FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N 75.3W
    MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
    50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
    34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.6N 76.0W
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
    34 KT...140NE 130SE 50SW 80NW.

    FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
    34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W
    MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
    34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 65SE 45SW 55NW.
    34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 100NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.4N 76.7W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 90SE 65SW 60NW.
    34 KT...170NE 180SE 140SW 110NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 74.6W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1800Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

    $$
    FORECASTER PAPIN



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