319
WTNT33 KNHC 241450
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT MELISSA COULD BE REFORMING TO THE
EAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 74.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning
may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
15.7 North, longitude 74.6 West. Melissa may have reformed recently,
with an estimated motion toward the east-southeast near 2 mph
(4 km/h). A slow motion turning to the northeast and then north is
expected to begin later today and tonight. A westward turn is then
forecast to begin on Saturday with that motion continuing through
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to
move near or just south of Jamaica early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast today, followed by rapid
intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a
hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti later this weekend and Jamaica beginning late this weekend or
early next week. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin
in Haiti tonight or Saturday and in Jamaica later this weekend.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 10 to 20 inches of rain to
portions of southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Monday,
with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12
inches are expected across the rest of southern Haiti and the
southern Dominican Republic. Additional heavy rainfall is likely
beyond Monday. However, uncertainty in Melissa's track and forward
speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected
in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with
catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern
Haiti.

Across portions of northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
western Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected through Monday.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible. Flooding impacts will
likely increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potential
risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south
coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa's slow motion and
large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how
high the storm surge could reach.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin



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