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  • FORECAST: Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast/advisory Number 14

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, October 24, 2025 20:42:04
    260
    WTNT23 KNHC 242041
    TCMAT3

    TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
    2100 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 74.3W AT 24/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
    50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
    34 KT.......100NE 120SE 30SW 50NW.
    4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 74.3W AT 24/2100Z
    AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 74.3W

    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.2N 74.4W
    MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
    64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
    50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
    34 KT...120NE 130SE 50SW 50NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.4N 74.8W
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 55NE 45SE 25SW 30NW.
    34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 80NW.

    FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.5N 75.5W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 45NW.
    34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.5N 76.0W
    MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 60NE 55SE 40SW 45NW.
    34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 110NW.

    FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.5N 76.6W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 65NE 60SE 40SW 55NW.
    34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW.

    FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 77.4W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
    34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N 77.4W...INLAND IN JAMAICA
    MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 85SE 60SW 60NW.
    34 KT...160NE 200SE 120SW 110NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.5N 74.8W...OVER WATER
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    50 KT... 95NE 110SE 90SW 65NW.
    34 KT...180NE 210SE 160SW 140NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 74.3W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

    $$
    FORECASTER PAPIN



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