406
WTNT43 KNHC 250843
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

During the last center fix of the Air Force Reserve mission into
Melissa several hours ago, a dropsonde measured a surface pressure
of 989 mb with winds of 27 kt, suggesting that the central pressure
has fallen to about 986 mb. The plane did not measure stronger
winds, but it did not fly through the area due east of the center,
which is where a nearly coincident ASCAT pass suggested the
strongest winds would be located. Some westerly shear is still
evident, but the center is now embedded far enough under the
Central Dense Overcast to yield Dvorak estimates of T4.0/65 kt from
TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB. The current intensity is estimated to
be 60 kt based on all these data. It's also worth noting that an
eye feature has occasionally been apparent in radar images from
Jamaica.

Melissa is currently moving slowly northwestward (310/3 kt).
Steering currents will remain weak for the next 3 days, and Melissa
is forecast to drift westward through Sunday night to the south of
Jamaica. A sharp but still very slow turn toward the north is
expected Monday and Monday night. Unfortunately, a large majority
of the latest reliable track models show Melissa making landfall on
Jamaica in about 72 hours. What's most concerning here is that the
island is likely to experience a couple of days of heavy rainfall
and tropical-storm-force winds before the core--and strongest
winds--even reach the coast. An increase in forward motion is
expected by days 4 and 5, with Melissa accelerating northeastward
across eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Although there are some speed differences among
the models, for the most part the cross-track spread is generally
small.

Although some westerly shear is likely to continue for the next few
days, high oceanic heat content and stronger upper-level
divergence should be able to support significant strengthening.
The dynamical model-based Rapid Intensification (RI) indices
(DTOPS) in particular are quite aggressive, showing a very high
probability of a 55-kt increase in intensity over the next 48
hours. In addition, 41 of the 50 Google DeepMind ensemble members
show Melissa at category 4 or 5 strength by Monday afternoon (60
hours), which is the same time that the NHC forecast continues to
show a peak intensity of 135 kt. Although some slight weakening is
possible after 60 hours, possibly due to the circulation
interacting with land and/or an eyewall replacement, Melissa still
has a significant possibility of making landfall on Jamaica as a
major hurricane. Melissa could maintain major hurricane strength
when it reaches eastern Cuba, but increased shear should lead to
weakening below major hurricane strength by day 5.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Melissa's slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning tonight, likely
causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides. There
is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge early next
week. All preparations should be completed today.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing
extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation
of communities. Immediate preparations to protect life and property
are urged. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or
more over the Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.

4. Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa
closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In
eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides is increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 16.3N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 16.5N 75.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 16.8N 76.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 16.9N 77.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 17.8N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH...S COAST OF JAMAICA
96H 29/0600Z 20.4N 75.3W 105 KT 120 MPH...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
120H 30/0600Z 24.8N 71.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Berg



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