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  • FORECAST: Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast/advisory Number 17

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, October 25, 2025 14:51:50
    389
    WTNT23 KNHC 251451
    TCMAT3

    TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
    1500 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 75.1W AT 25/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
    50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
    34 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.
    4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 45SW 105NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 75.1W AT 25/1500Z
    AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 75.0W

    FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 75.5W
    MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
    50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
    34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

    FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 76.2W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 55NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
    34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W
    MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
    34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.7N 77.3W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
    34 KT...140NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.2N 77.5W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 60NE 55SE 40SW 45NW.
    34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.9N 77.2W...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
    MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 55NE 60SE 40SW 45NW.
    34 KT...130NE 140SE 80SW 90NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 75.1W...INLAND OVER E CUBA
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
    34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 25.0N 71.0W...OVER SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
    MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
    34 KT...120NE 160SE 130SW 90NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 75.1W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1800Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

    $$
    FORECASTER PAPIN



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