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  • FORECAST: Hurricane Melissa Forecast/advisory Number 18

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, October 25, 2025 20:54:29
    881
    WTNT23 KNHC 252054
    TCMAT3

    HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
    2100 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 75.5W AT 25/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
    64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
    50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
    34 KT.......140NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.
    4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 60SW 105NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 75.5W AT 25/2100Z
    AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 75.2W

    FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
    34 KT...160NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.7N 76.5W
    MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
    34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.7N 77.2W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
    34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.9N 77.6W
    MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
    34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 110NW.

    FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.6N 77.4W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 60NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
    34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.8N 76.7W...BETWEEN JAMAICA AND E CUBA
    MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 65NE 70SE 40SW 45NW.
    34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 73.4W...NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS
    MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    50 KT... 65NE 75SE 55SW 50NW.
    34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 80NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W
    MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
    34 KT...120NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 75.5W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/0000Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

    $$
    FORECASTER PAPIN



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