104
WTNT33 KNHC 252055
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...MELISSA LIKELY STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cuban
provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba,
the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos
Islands should monitor the progress of Melissa. Watches could be
required for portions of eastern Cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is
moving toward slowly the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward
motion is expected tonight through the end of the weekend. A turn to
the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or
over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be
near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to continue
over the next day or so and Melissa is forecast to become a major
hurricane tomorrow and is expected to still be a major hurricane
when making landfall in Jamaica early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti later today.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba
on Tuesday into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals
are still uncertain. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals
are still uncertain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely
along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next
week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above
ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa
makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba early next week.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


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