707
WTNT43 KNHC 260856
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Melissa is in the midst of a period of extreme rapid
intensification. Its intensity has increased by 50 kt over the
past 24 hours and 35 kt over the past 12 hours. Data from the last
pass of an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the
eye just before 1 AM EDT indicated that maximum winds had increased
to 105 kt and the pressure had fallen to 958 mb. The eye has been
clearing out and warming since that time in infrared satellite
imagery, with the Dvorak data-T numbers from both TAFB and SAB up to
T6.0/115 kt at 2 AM EDT. The intensity is estimated to be 120 kt at
the time of this advisory based on the latest AiDT and DPRINT
estimates.

The center had taken a west-southwestward jog over the past 12
hours, but more recent frames of satellite images suggest it is now
moving westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt. There is very little change
in the forecast reasoning or the forecast track itself. Over the
next 48 hours, Melissa is expected to make a slow westward to north-northeastward recurvature just to the south of Jamaica, likely
reaching the island's southern coast Tuesday morning. An
acceleration toward the northeast is expected after 48 hours when
Melissa is picked up by a trough moving off the southeast coast of
the United States, and this motion should bring the center across
southeastern Cuba late Tuesday or early Wednesday, across the
southeastern Bahamas later on Wednesday, and then reaching the
vicinity of Bermuda on Friday.

It's assumed that the current period of rapid intensification will
continue, and Melissa could reach category 5 intensity by tonight.
An eyewall replacement would be likely to occur at some point over
the next couple of days, which would cause a decrease or at least
fluctuations in Melissa's intensity after 24 hours. Regardless,
Melissa is forecast to reach Jamaica as a category 4 hurricane,
which will only compound any damages caused by heavy rainfall and
flooding over the next 2 days. Melissa is likely to weaken a
little during its passage across Jamaica, but intensity guidance
suggests that it will likely still be a major hurricane when it
reaches southeastern Cuba late Tuesday and the southeastern Bahamas
on Wednesday. Stronger shear should cause the storm to weaken
below major hurricane strength on days 4 and 5 while over the
western Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
today and on Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flash flooding and numerous landslides before the strongest winds
arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural
damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation
of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely
along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday
morning.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek,
likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation
of communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the
Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western
Haiti on Tuesday.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
portions of the country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of the week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for portions of eastern Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 16.3N 76.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.3N 76.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 16.5N 77.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 16.8N 77.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 17.5N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH...JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA
60H 28/1800Z 18.7N 76.8W 120 KT 140 MPH...JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA
72H 29/0600Z 20.5N 75.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER SE CUBA
96H 30/0600Z 24.8N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 31/0600Z 30.3N 66.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


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