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  • FORECAST: Hurricane Melissa Forecast/advisory Number 21

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, October 26, 2025 14:54:45
    890
    WTNT23 KNHC 261454
    TCMAT3

    HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
    1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 76.6W AT 26/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
    64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
    50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
    34 KT.......150NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.
    4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 76.6W AT 26/1500Z
    AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 76.4W

    FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.1W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
    34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.

    FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.8W
    MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
    34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.0W
    MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
    34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.7W...NEAR SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 60NE 55SE 35SW 40NW.
    34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.2N 76.6W...NORTH OF JAMAICA
    MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 65NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
    34 KT...130NE 160SE 80SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.9N 75.1W...NEAR ATLANTIC E CUBA COAST
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 65NE 70SE 50SW 45NW.
    34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 25.5N 71.0W
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
    34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W
    MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
    50 KT... 75NE 85SE 65SW 50NW.
    34 KT...130NE 180SE 140SW 90NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 76.6W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/1800Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

    $$
    FORECASTER PAPIN



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