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  • STRMDISC: Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 23

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, October 27, 2025 02:45:27
    243
    WTNT43 KNHC 270245
    TCDAT3

    Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 23
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
    1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

    Melissa remains a very intense hurricane with a well-defined eye
    surrounded by extremely cold cloud tops, significantly colder than
    -80 deg C. The cloud pattern is quite symmetrical on satellite
    imagery with strong upper-level outflow, especially over the
    northern semicircle. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
    investigating the system this evening and found that the central
    pressure had fallen to near 933 mb, and peak flight-level winds
    support an intensity of 125 kt. It should be noted that
    satellite-based estimates, including subjective Dvorak analyses of
    T7.0, suggest a higher intensity than found by the aircraft thus
    far.

    Although the eye wobbled a bit to the south recently, this is
    believed to be temporary and a more representative initial motion
    estimate is about 270/4 kt. The track forecast reasoning is
    essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. The mid-level
    ridge that had been steering Melissa westward is expected to weaken
    by tomorrow. This should allow the hurricane to turn to the north
    and north-northeast during the next day or so. Then, a developing
    mid-level trough near the southeast U.S. coast is expected to
    cause Melissa to move northeastward with increasing forward
    speed. The official track forecast is very similar to the
    previous one and lies between the HFIP corrected consensus and
    Google DeepMind ensemble mean predictions.

    Since the hurricane is expected to remain in a relatively low
    vertical wind shear environment during the next day or two, it is
    expected to strengthen some more until it interacts with the land
    masses of Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The global models show stronger
    vertical shear north of Cuba so the system should gradually weaken
    later in the period. The official intensity forecast remains on
    the high side of the model guidance.


    Key Messages:

    1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
    tonight and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
    flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially
    devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning.
    Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and
    communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along
    portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning.

    2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
    life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
    southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
    through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
    isolation of communities are likely. Although winds have temporarily
    decreased on the Tiburon peninsula, they are likely to increase
    again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday.

    3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge is expected along
    portions of the southern coast of eastern Cuba late Tuesday and
    Tuesday night. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall with
    life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
    landslides are also expected beginning on Monday. Preparations
    should be rushed to completion.

    4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa
    closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge,
    damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. Watches
    will likely be required early Monday.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 27/0300Z 16.3N 77.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
    12H 27/1200Z 16.5N 78.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
    24H 28/0000Z 17.1N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
    36H 28/1200Z 18.0N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
    48H 29/0000Z 19.4N 76.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
    60H 29/1200Z 21.1N 75.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
    72H 30/0000Z 23.4N 73.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
    96H 31/0000Z 30.1N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
    120H 01/0000Z 38.1N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch


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