096=20
AXNT20 KNHC 271755
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Oct 27 2025

UPDATED TO INCLUDE INFORMATION FROM THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY FOR MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Melissa is centered near 16.5N 78.3W at 27/1800 UTC or
130 nm SW of Kingston Jamaica, moving WNW at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 906 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 150 kt with gusts to 185 kt. Peak seas near the center of=20
Melissa are near 35 ft. Numerous heavy showers and tstms are=20
ongoing over most of the north-central Caribbean N of 10N between=20
71W and 81W. A slow turn toward the northwest and north is=20
expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and=20
a faster forward speed on Tuesday. A northeastward motion is=20
expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the=20
core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica tonight and early
Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the=20
southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Melissa is a category 5=20
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some=20
fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall
on Jamaica on Tuesday. However, Melissa is expected to reach=20
Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely powerful major=20
hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves=20
across the southeastern Bahamas.=20

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and=20
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions=20
are expected to begin tonight and continue into early Tuesday.=20
Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially=20
in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward=20
sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the=20
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm=20
conditions are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in the=20
southeastern and central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos=20
Islands, on Wednesday.

Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous=20
landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of=20
15 to 20 inches, with local higher amounts, is expected by Monday=20
into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially=20
catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the=20
Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected=20
Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding. For=20
a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall=20
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge
heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm=20
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. There is
a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast
of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could
reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east
of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge=20
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Storm surge=20
of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the=20
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!5oGSOFOaXVk0F9K8w4-nGOY0NUsKCU7bqOET8zCIoW0uet6kzGSLYraanEUs_pDUM= 21DsAvAkxSFYxpVXgMfRRO1Tp4$ and the latest
Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5oGSOFOaXV= k0F9K8w4-nGOY0NUsKCU7bqOET8zCIoW0uet6kzGSLYraanEUs_pDUM21DsAvAkxSFYxpVXgMfY= CZj44o$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Based on visible satellite, precipitable water, and AI Tropical=20
Wave Diagnostics, a tropical wave is added to the surface analysis
along 42W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 5-10 kt.=20
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 38W and=20
43W.=20

A tropical wave is along 54W from 15N southward, and is nearly
stationary. No significant convection is noted at this time. This
tropical wave is expected to dissipate tonight or tomorrow.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough terminates in the coastal regions of Guinea-
Bissau. The ITCZ extends from 12N16W to 06N38W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N to 09N between 23W and 34W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

1011 mb low pressure is near 30N86W, along a frontal zone that
extends across the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf
waters. Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N between 83W
and 85W. Gentle to moderate N winds, and 3-5 ft seas, prevail
across the basin.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the northwestern
Gulf Tue night into Wed and will progress southeastward over the=20
region through late week. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds
and rough seas will occur in the wake of the front early Wed=20
through Thu. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the wake
of the front in the NW Gulf late Tue night into Wed morning.=20
Winds will likely reach gale force along the coast of Mexico=20
offshore of Tampico and Veracruz by Wed afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON MAJOR
HURRICANE MELISSA.

Seas in excess of 8 ft are north of 12N between 72W and 82W, due
to MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA. This includes the southern half of the
Windward Passage. Elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean,
satellite scatterometer indicates fresh to strong winds associated
with the outer circulation of MELISSA. In the eastern Caribbean,
trades are moderate to fresh. Seas are 4-7 ff across the basin,
except for as described above.=20

For the forecast, Melissa will move to 16.9N 78.3W this evening, 17.8N
77.9W Tue morning, and 19.1N 76.9W Tue evening. Melissa will move
N of the Caribbean on Wed, with marine conditions improving=20
through the day.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON MAJOR
HURRICANE MELISSA.

A stationary front extends from just south of Bermuda to Cape=20
Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to strong E winds are north of 27N west
of 70W. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough is from 28N38W
to 20N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 29N=20
between 35W and 44W. Weak 1019 mb low pressure is near 29N45W.
Satellite scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades
across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas.=20

For the forecast west of 55W, Melissa will move to 16.9N 78.3W this=20
evening, 17.8N 77.9W Tue morning, 19.1N 76.9W Tue evening, 20.8N=20
75.5W Wed morning, 23.0N 73.7W Wed evening, and 25.9N 71.2W Thu=20
morning. Melissa will change little in intensity as it moves N of=20
the area to 34.3N 63.0W early Fri. A stationary front extends from
south of Bermuda to east-central Florida. Fresh E to SE winds and
moderate to rough seas will prevail west of 72W through today as=20
a strong pressure gradient prevails between the front, high=20
pressure to the north and Major Hurricane Melissa in the north-=20
central Caribbean. A low pressure system associated with the=20
stationary front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S.=20
today, leading to moderate to fresh E to SE winds east of 78W this
afternoon through Tue, and fresh to strong N to NW winds behind=20
the system offshore of northern Florida Tue through midweek. Rough
seas will build over this region by early Tue, with seas=20
expanding farther south and east Tue and Wed. A strong cold front
will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. by late week,=20
supporting increasing winds and building seas over the western=20
Atlantic.=20

$$
Mahoney

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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686=20
AXNT20 KNHC 271328
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Oct 27 2025

UPDATED WITH INFORMATION FROM THE 1200 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY=20
FOR HURRICANE MELISSA

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Melissa is centered near 16.4N 78.0W at 27/1200 UTC or
120 nm SW of Kingston Jamaica, moving W at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 913 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. Peak seas near the center of=20
Melissa are near 35 ft. Numerous heavy showers and tstms are=20
ongoing over most of the north-central Caribbean N of 13N between=20
70W and 80W. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is=20
expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across=20 southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern=20
Bahamas on Wednesday. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the=20 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is forecast today, with fluctuations in intensity likely before=20
Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica early Tuesday. Melissa is=20
expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as a powerful=20
major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it=20
moves across the southeastern Bahamas.=20

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
destructive hurricane conditions are expected to begin tonight or
early Tuesday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills
and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated
locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are=20
expected to begin in eastern Cuba on Tuesday, with hurricane=20
conditions expected to begin in the hurricane warning area by=20
Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti=20
late Tuesday and Wednesday. Tropical storm and hurricane=20
conditions are possible in the southeastern and central Bahamas,=20
as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands, on Wednesday.

Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of=20
10 to 15 inches, with local amounts to 20 inches, is expected=20
today through Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and=20
potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.
Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is=20
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash=20
flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall=20
associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service=20
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at=20 hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge
heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. There is a=20
potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of
Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could=20
reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east=20
of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge=20
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Storm surge=20
is possible in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos=20
Islands on Wednesday.
=20
Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult=20
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!7v6oPQnxhSWkS5_nozexf11MY5WfTnCLdQKp9dRaStC3ZJ4r3DjhbstfQ-gPLw4r6= v3qd0-m_oCUBCrWiifaggVjEE0$ and the latest
Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7v6oPQnxhS= WkS5_nozexf11MY5WfTnCLdQKp9dRaStC3ZJ4r3DjhbstfQ-gPLw4r6v3qd0-m_oCUBCrWiifaA= RY26jo$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 54W from 02N to 15N, moving westward at=20
5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 10N to
12N between 50W and 53W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough more or less terminates along the coast of
Senegal/Gambia. The ITCZ begins near 09N21W and extends to=20
05N36W, then on to 08N52W. Scattered moderate convection is=20
evident from 04N to 06N between 22W and 30W, and from 08N to 10N=20
between 20W and 30W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from Tampa Bay area to southern Alabama
to a 1012 mb low over southern Mississippi. The stationary front
then extends across SE Louisiana to the offshore waters of Texas
near 28N95W where it transitions to a warm front. A trough=20
extends southward from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to=20
22N85W. A few showers and thunderstorms are active over portions
of the Florida Panhandle coastal waters. A weak pressure gradient
in the Gulf is supporting light to gentle variable winds, except for
moderate to locally fresh E winds over the Straits of Florida.=20
Seas are generally slight to locally moderate.=20

For the forecast, a strong cold front is slated to enter the=20
northwestern Gulf Tue night into Wed and will progress=20
southeastward over the region through late week. Widespread fresh=20
to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will occur in the wake of=20
the front early Wed through Thu. Winds will likely reach gale=20
force along the coast of Mexico offshore of Tampico and Veracruz=20
on Wed.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Attention remains focused on Major Hurricane Melissa. Please read
the Special Features section for more information about this=20
powerful hurricane.=20

Outside of the area of Melissa in the central Caribbean, moderate
to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted over the eastern
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen
over the northwest Caribbean. A few showers and thunderstorms are
active over the Gulf of Honduras. Heavier showers are over the
offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama associated with both the
E Pacific monsoon trough and the outer bands of Melissa.

For the forecast, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or
over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba=20
Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.=20
Some additional strengthening is forecast today, with fluctuations
in intensity likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica=20
early Tuesday. Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and=20
southeastern Cuba as a powerful major hurricane, and will still be
at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern=20
Bahamas. Melissa will change little in intensity as it moves near=20
32.3N 65.1W early Fri.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more information=20
about Major Hurricane Melissa.

A stationary front extends from south of Bermuda to just south of=20
Cape Canaveral Florida. The pressure gradient between high=20
pressure over the NE of the United States and Major Hurricane=20
Melissa located in the north-central Caribbean Sea is supporting=20
moderate to fresh E to SE winds mainly W of 65W, including the=20
Straits of Florida and the Great Bahama Bank. Seas are 6 to 9 ft=20
within these winds E and N of the Bahamas, and 4 to 5 ft in the=20
Straits of Florida. A few showers and thunderstorms are active=20
over the NE and central Florida offshore waters. The remainder
subtropical waters are under the influence of a broad ridge, which
is supporting moderate or weaker winds over the central and
eastern waters, except for fresh E to SE winds E of a surface
trough that extends from 17N49W to 26N41W. Scattered heavy showers
are also associated with this trough, which cover an area from 20N
to 30N between 30W and 46W.=20

For the forecast west of 55W, a low pressure system associated=20
with the stationary front will push offshore of the southeastern=20
U.S. today, leading to moderate to fresh E to SE winds east of 78W
this afternoon through Tue, and fresh to strong N to NW winds=20
behind the system offshore of northern Florida Tue through=20
midweek. Rough seas will build over this region by early Tue, with
seas expanding farther south and east Tue and Wed. Elsewhere,=20
Major Hurricane Melissa is strengthening in the north-central=20
Caribbean. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected=20
to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across=20
southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern=20
Bahamas on Wednesday. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will push=20
offshore of the southeastern U.S. by late week, supporting=20
increasing winds and building seas over the western Atlantic.=20

$$
Ramos/Mahoney

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