670
WTNT33 KNHC 271447
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM
SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...908 MB...26.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern and central Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Bahamas and
the Turks and Caicos islands later today or tonight. Interests in
Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.2 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward the
northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the northeast and a faster forward speed on Tuesday. A
northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica
tonight and early Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night,
and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica on Tuesday. However,
Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an
extremely powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane
strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the latest Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 908 mb (26.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions
are expected to begin tonight and continue into early Tuesday.
Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially
in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward
sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in the
southeastern and central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos
Islands, on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 15 to 20 inches, with
local higher amounts, is expected by Monday into Wednesday resulting
in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge
heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


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