508
AXNT20 KNHC 171806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over the Africa continent. An
ITCZ extends westward from offshore of Sierra Leone across 06N35W
to just north of French Guiana at 07N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is found up to 140 nm north, and up to 180 nm south of
the ITCZ.

The eastern end of East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A modest cold front curves northwestward from near Tampa, Florida
to 29N87W, then continues as a stationary front to beyond southern
Mississippi. Patchy showers are seen near this feature. A surface
trough is causing scattered showers from north of the Yucatan
Peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate with locally
fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist at the northwestern and
west-central Gulf. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high at the northeastern
Gulf is dominating the region with light to gentle NNE to E to SE
winds and 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure building into the southeastern
U.S. will lead to gradually increasing SE flow over the Gulf,
with fresh winds developing by midweek, especially in the
northwestern Gulf, near a cold front that will stall over Texas
through late week. Slight seas will build to moderate as the winds
increase.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough reaches southwestward from central Cuba across a
1012 mb low near 20N82W to the eastern Gulf of Honduras. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from the Cayman
Islands northward to the southern coast of Cuba. Moderate to fresh
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present in this area. Convergent
trade winds are causing scattered showers near the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft exist for
the remainder of the western basin. Gentle to locally moderate NE
to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft dominate the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient over the area will
generally maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the
basin into early Tue. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds
by midweek across the central basin as a western Atlantic high
pressure expands southeastward toward the Greater Antilles while
the Colombian low becomes evident. Looking ahead, expect moderate
to fresh NE winds west of 70W Thu and Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N69W
to the Canaveral National Seashore, Florida. Widely scattered
showers are occurring near and up to 80 nm north of this
boundary. A stationary front curves southwestward from the central
Atlantic across 31N78W to 20N44W to 22N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen up to 120 nm along either side of this feature,
east of 44W. A pair of the surface troughs are producing scattered
moderate convection from 10N to 20N between 50W and 55W. Another
surface trough is making patchy showers northeast of the southwest
Bahama. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning
for more information.

Moderate to fresh NW to SW winds with 7 to 10 ft seas in a mixed
large N and S swells are evident near the cold front. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted from 09N to 20N
between 35W and 55W. Light to gentle winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in
moderate swell are evident north of 10N between 40W and the
Bahamas. Gentle to moderate E to SE and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail
for the rest of the Atlantic Basin, west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken and
stall Tue from around 30N60W to the Turks and Caicos. Strong SW
winds and rough seas can be expected ahead of the front north of
29N today, with some rough seas lingering behind the front north
of 28N off northeast Florida until the front dissipates Tue night.
High pressure sinking southward over the waters for the latter
half of the week should bring relatively benign conditions.

$$

Chan

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630
AXNT20 KNHC 171806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over the Africa continent. An
ITCZ extends westward from offshore of Sierra Leone across 06N35W
to just north of French Guiana at 07N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is found up to 140 nm north, and up to 180 nm south of
the ITCZ.

The eastern end of East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A modest cold front curves northwestward from near Tampa, Florida
to 29N87W, then continues as a stationary front to beyond southern
Mississippi. Patchy showers are seen near this feature. A surface
trough is causing scattered showers from north of the Yucatan
Peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate with locally
fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist at the northwestern and
west-central Gulf. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high at the northeastern
Gulf is dominating the region with light to gentle NNE to E to SE
winds and 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure building into the southeastern
U.S. will lead to gradually increasing SE flow over the Gulf,
with fresh winds developing by midweek, especially in the
northwestern Gulf, near a cold front that will stall over Texas
through late week. Slight seas will build to moderate as the winds
increase.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough reaches southwestward from central Cuba across a
1012 mb low near 20N82W to the eastern Gulf of Honduras. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from the Cayman
Islands northward to the southern coast of Cuba. Moderate to fresh
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present in this area. Convergent
trade winds are causing scattered showers near the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft exist for
the remainder of the western basin. Gentle to locally moderate NE
to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft dominate the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient over the area will
generally maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the
basin into early Tue. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds
by midweek across the central basin as a western Atlantic high
pressure expands southeastward toward the Greater Antilles while
the Colombian low becomes evident. Looking ahead, expect moderate
to fresh NE winds west of 70W Thu and Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N69W
to the Canaveral National Seashore, Florida. Widely scattered
showers are occurring near and up to 80 nm north of this
boundary. A stationary front curves southwestward from the central
Atlantic across 31N78W to 20N44W to 22N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen up to 120 nm along either side of this feature,
east of 44W. A pair of the surface troughs are producing scattered
moderate convection from 10N to 20N between 50W and 55W. Another
surface trough is making patchy showers northeast of the southwest
Bahama. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning
for more information.

Moderate to fresh NW to SW winds with 7 to 10 ft seas in a mixed
large N and S swells are evident near the cold front. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted from 09N to 20N
between 35W and 55W. Light to gentle winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in
moderate swell are evident north of 10N between 40W and the
Bahamas. Gentle to moderate E to SE and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail
for the rest of the Atlantic Basin, west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken and
stall Tue from around 30N60W to the Turks and Caicos. Strong SW
winds and rough seas can be expected ahead of the front north of
29N today, with some rough seas lingering behind the front north
of 28N off northeast Florida until the front dissipates Tue night.
High pressure sinking southward over the waters for the latter
half of the week should bring relatively benign conditions.

$$

Chan

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040
AXNT20 KNHC 172317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over the Africa continent. The
ITCZ extends westward from offshore of Sierra Leone to 06N30W to
09N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 09N between 15W and 46W, and from 08N to 11N between
46W and 53W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front crosses the NE Gulf, and extends from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to 29N87W, then continues as a stationary front to beyond
southern Mississippi. A few showers are seen near this feature.
A surface trough is over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Mainly patches
of low level clouds, with possible showers, are associated with
this system. Otherwise, a weak high pressure of 1015 mb located
near 27N88W dominates the remainder of the basin. Under this weather
pattern, scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate SE to S winds
over the western Gulf, and mainly light winds elsewhere. Slight seas
dominate most of the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, the weak cold front over the northeast Gulf will
stall overnight then dissipate. High pressure over the southeastern
U.S. and north of the front will shift into the western Atlantic
Tue, ahead of a weak cold that will stall then dissipate over the
southern Plains. This pattern will support mostly moderate E to
SE winds across the basin through mid week, with occasional fresh
southerly flow over the northwest and north-central Gulf. Looking
ahead, another weak cold front will move into the northwest and
north-central Gulf Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak low of 1012 mb is spinning midway between the Isle of Youth,
Cuba and the Cayman Islands. A surface trough extends from the
low center eastward toward eastern Cuba where is generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted on the NW quadrant of the low center based on
scatterometer data. A few showers, with embedded thunderstorms
are affecting the Leeward Islands. Light to gentle winds and seas
of 1 to 2 ft exist for the remainder of the western Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms near the aforementioned
low pressure will diminish overnight as the low pressure weakens
to a trough, moves into the Yucatan Channel Tue, and dissipates
Wed. This pattern is resulting in weaker than normal trade winds
over the south-central Caribbean Tue, except for off Colombia.
High pressure will build north of the area off the Carolinas by
mid week, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds south of Cuba and
Hispaniola, and across the Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to central Florida. A few
showers are along the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh SW winds
are ahead of the front affecting the waters N of 29N between 60W
and 77W. Rough seas, in long period NW swell, follow the front.
Farther E, a stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N33W,
and extends SW to near 26N45W. Scattered showers are associated
with the front. Rough seas, in long period NW swell also follow
the front. The remainder of the east and central Atlantic are
under the influence of a 1026 mb high pressure located NW of the
Azores. Moderate to fresh trades, and moderate to rough seas
dominate the tropical Atlantic, mainly E of 50W. A surface trough
remains E of the Lesser Antilles along 54W/55W. An area of fresh
to strong winds is observed near the northern end of the trough
axis covering the waters from 14N to 17N between 54W and 57W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall Tue from
around 30N60W to the Turks and Caicos before dissipating Wed. NW
swell reaching 8 to 10 ft may persist north of 28N and east of
70W through Tue. High pressure will build behind the front between
the Carolinas and Bermuda Wed through Fri, supporting gentle breezes
and slight seas north of 25N and moderate winds and seas farther
south. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off northeast
Florida late Fri through Sat ahead of a weak moving through the
southeast U.S.

$$
GR

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519
AXNT20 KNHC 180419
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0419 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 14N17W, then southwestward
to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends westward from 10N22W to 03.5N48W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N
to 09N between the west coast of Africa and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida to
SW Alabama. A surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Otherwise, high pressure north of the area dominates the
remainder of the basin. Under this weather pattern, scatterometer
data indicate gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the central
and western Gulf, and mainly light winds elsewhere. Slight seas
dominate most of the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, a stationary front offshore Florida will
dissipate by Tue morning. High pressure will then build southward
into the eastern Gulf, allowing moderate to fresh southeast winds
to establish Tue night through Thu over the central and western
Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front is likely to move into the
northern Gulf by the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak low of 1013 mb is spinning midway between the Isle of
Youth, Cuba and the Cayman Islands. A surface trough extends from
the low center northward. This low is supporting scattered
moderate convection over the offshore waters of central Cuba.
Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted on the NW quadrant of the
low center. A few showers, with embedded thunderstorms are
affecting the Leeward Islands. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1
to 3 ft exist for the remainder of the western Caribbean. Gentle
to moderate trade winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast, a 1013 mb low pressure between Grand Cayman and
the Isle of Youth will devolve into a surface trough tonight,
move into the Yucatan Channel Tue, then dissipate Wed. High
pressure building from the north will gradually cause tradewinds
to return to normal magnitude by mid-week, with moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds expected Wed into the weekend. Pulsing
strong winds are possible offshore Colombia during the overnight
and early morning hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has stalled from SE of Bermuda to near West Palm
Beach, Florida. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are ahead of the
front affecting the waters N of 28.5N between 61W and 70W. Rough
seas, in long period NW swell, follow the front. Scattered
moderate convection is found north of 21.5N between 55W and 61.5W
in association to a surface trough. Farther E, a stationary front
enters the forecast area near 31N36W, and extends SW to near
23N46W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along this
front. The remainder of the east and central Atlantic are under
the influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located NW of the
Azores. Moderate to fresh trades, and moderate to rough seas
dominate the tropical Atlantic, mainly E of 55W. A surface trough
remains E of the Lesser Antilles along 54W/55W. Scattered
moderate convection is depicted from 09.5N to 12N between 48W and
57W in association with this trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken
Tue then dissipate Wed. High pressure will build behind the front
between the Carolinas and Bermuda through Fri, supporting gentle
breezes north of 25N and moderate winds and farther south. Seas
will generally be moderate or less, but NW swell will lead to
rough seas N of 28N and E of 70W into Tue night. Looking ahead, SW
winds may increase slightly off northeast Florida late Fri
through Sat ahead of a weak cold front moving through the
southeast U.S.

$$
KRV

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930
AXNT20 KNHC 180958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 14N17W to 10N22W. The ITCZ
extends 10N22W to 03N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough and
within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ axis.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front that had been over the NE Gulf has
dissipated early this morning. A surface trough has drifted west
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure centered north of
the area is the dominant feature influencing Gulf weather this
morning, inducing gentle to moderate SE winds over the central and
western Gulf, and light winds over the eastern Gulf. Seas 2 to 4
ft in the western basin, and less than 2 ft in the east.

For the forecast, high pressure will build south toward the NE
Gulf, allowing moderate to fresh SW winds to establish tonight
through Thu over the central and western Gulf. Looking ahead, a
weak cold front is likely to move into the northern Gulf by the
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak low of 1013 mb is spinning midway between the Isle of
Youth, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. This low is supporting
scattered moderate convection over the offshore waters of central
Cuba. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted on the NW quadrant of
the low center. Low pressure along the Colombian coast is also
causing scattered moderate convection offshore Colombia and
eastern Panama. Aside from the near aforementioned low, light to
gentle winds dominate the NW Caribbean, with mainly gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere, except locally fresh winds offshore
Colombia. Seas are less than 2 ft in the NW basin, 2 to 4 ft
elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, the low pressure center in the NW Caribbean
will devolve into a surface trough today, move W to the Yucatan
Channel tonight, then dissipate Wed. High pressure building from
the north will gradually cause tradewinds to return to normal
magnitude by mid- week, with moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds expected Wed into the weekend. Pulsing strong winds are
likely offshore Colombia during the overnight and early morning
hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak and slow moving cold front extends from near 31N63W to
the NW Bahamas. N of the front, moderate N winds are ongoing,
along with moderate, but decaying, seas. To the east, a surface
trough that stretches from 30N58W to 23N62W is inducing scattered
moderate convection N of 25N between 55W and 62W. Still farther E,
a stationary front from 31N38W to 22N45W has scattered moderate
convection within 90 nm W of it to the N of 25N. A surface trough
is east of the Windward Islands along 56W. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 08N to 12N between 48W and 57W in
association with this trough. The tropical Atlantic S of 20N is
dominated by moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft.
Similar conditions in NE winds are noted for all waters E of 35W.
For the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds prevail,
with generally moderate seas. Rough seas in N swell are impacting
waters N of 28N between 50W and 70W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
slide E today and weaken, stall tonight from around 31N58W to
27N70W, then dissipate Wed. High pressure will build S toward the
waters in the wake of the front through late week, leading to
gentle breezes N of 25N and moderate E winds to the south. Seas
will gradually decay from moderate to slight from west to east
across the area through late week. Looking ahead, SW winds may
increase slightly off northeast Florida late Fri through Sat ahead
of a weak cold front moving through the southeast U.S.

$$
Konarik

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976
AXNT20 KNHC 180958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 14N17W to 10N22W. The ITCZ
extends 10N22W to 03N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough and
within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ axis.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front that had been over the NE Gulf has
dissipated early this morning. A surface trough has drifted west
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure centered north of
the area is the dominant feature influencing Gulf weather this
morning, inducing gentle to moderate SE winds over the central and
western Gulf, and light winds over the eastern Gulf. Seas 2 to 4
ft in the western basin, and less than 2 ft in the east.

For the forecast, high pressure will build south toward the NE
Gulf, allowing moderate to fresh SW winds to establish tonight
through Thu over the central and western Gulf. Looking ahead, a
weak cold front is likely to move into the northern Gulf by the
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak low of 1013 mb is spinning midway between the Isle of
Youth, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. This low is supporting
scattered moderate convection over the offshore waters of central
Cuba. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted on the NW quadrant of
the low center. Low pressure along the Colombian coast is also
causing scattered moderate convection offshore Colombia and
eastern Panama. Aside from the near aforementioned low, light to
gentle winds dominate the NW Caribbean, with mainly gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere, except locally fresh winds offshore
Colombia. Seas are less than 2 ft in the NW basin, 2 to 4 ft
elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, the low pressure center in the NW Caribbean
will devolve into a surface trough today, move W to the Yucatan
Channel tonight, then dissipate Wed. High pressure building from
the north will gradually cause tradewinds to return to normal
magnitude by mid- week, with moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds expected Wed into the weekend. Pulsing strong winds are
likely offshore Colombia during the overnight and early morning
hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak and slow moving cold front extends from near 31N63W to
the NW Bahamas. N of the front, moderate N winds are ongoing,
along with moderate, but decaying, seas. To the east, a surface
trough that stretches from 30N58W to 23N62W is inducing scattered
moderate convection N of 25N between 55W and 62W. Still farther E,
a stationary front from 31N38W to 22N45W has scattered moderate
convection within 90 nm W of it to the N of 25N. A surface trough
is east of the Windward Islands along 56W. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 08N to 12N between 48W and 57W in
association with this trough. The tropical Atlantic S of 20N is
dominated by moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft.
Similar conditions in NE winds are noted for all waters E of 35W.
For the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds prevail,
with generally moderate seas. Rough seas in N swell are impacting
waters N of 28N between 50W and 70W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
slide E today and weaken, stall tonight from around 31N58W to
27N70W, then dissipate Wed. High pressure will build S toward the
waters in the wake of the front through late week, leading to
gentle breezes N of 25N and moderate E winds to the south. Seas
will gradually decay from moderate to slight from west to east
across the area through late week. Looking ahead, SW winds may
increase slightly off northeast Florida late Fri through Sat ahead
of a weak cold front moving through the southeast U.S.

$$
Konarik

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530
AXNT20 KNHC 181745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough runs southwestward from the Senegal coast just
south of Dakar to 11N20W. An ITCZ curves west-southwestward from
11N20W to 05N35W to north of Suriname at 08N54W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near both features
from 01N to 09N between the Guinea-Bissau/Liberia coast and 45W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The northern portion of a surface trough is causing scattered
showers across the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a broad surface
ridge is dominating much of the Gulf. Gentle with locally moderate
ENE to SSE winds and 1 to 4 ft seas are present for the entire
Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will maintain gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas through Fri
across the Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front is likely to
move into the northern Gulf by Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak 1013 mb low is persisting midway between the Isle of
Youth, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. Convergent SE winds east of
the low are generating scattered moderate convection between
central Cuba and Jamaica. A surface trough is producing similar
convection near and east of the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh NE to E trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to
ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure will devolve
into a surface trough later today, move westward to the Yucatan
Channel tonight and then dissipate Wed. High pressure building
from the north will gradually cause trade winds to return to
normal magnitude by midweek, with moderate to locally fresh NE to
E winds expected Wed into the weekend. Pulsing strong winds are
likely offshore Colombia during the overnight and early morning
hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak and slow moving cold front extends west-southwestward from
east of Bermuda across 31N62W to the northwest Bahamas. Patchy
showers and occurring near and up to 90 nm north of the front.
Farther east, divergent upper-level winds are enhancing scattered
moderate convection near a surface trough from 27N to 31N between
54W and 60W. Similar synoptic setting is creating similar convection
east of the Turk and Caicos Islands. At the central Atlantic, a
stationary front runs southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic
across 31N36W to 23N45W. Widely scattered showers are found up to
50 nm along either side of this feature. A robust surface trough
is bringing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms
near the coast of Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. Refer to
the monsoon trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are present near the surface trough from the Suriname and
French Guiana coast northward to 13N. For the rest of the tropical
Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles,
gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft exist.
North of the aforementioned cold front, moderate NE to ESE winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present. Farther east from 20N to 31N
between 51W and the cold front, light to gentle winds and 5 to 8
ft seas in large northerly swell dominate. North of 20N between
35W and 51W, gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft are
evident. Gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
slide eastward today and weaken further, stall tonight from
around 31N58W to 27N70W, then dissipate Wed. High pressure will
build southward in the wake of the front through late week,
leading to gentle breezes north of 25N and moderate E winds to
the south. North swell will induce rough seas north of 28N and
east of 70W into tonight. Thereafter, seas will gradually decay
from moderate to slight from west to east across the area through
late week. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off
northeast Florida late Fri through Sat ahead of a weak cold front
moving through the southeast U.S.

$$

Chan

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532
AXNT20 KNHC 181745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough runs southwestward from the Senegal coast just
south of Dakar to 11N20W. An ITCZ curves west-southwestward from
11N20W to 05N35W to north of Suriname at 08N54W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near both features
from 01N to 09N between the Guinea-Bissau/Liberia coast and 45W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The northern portion of a surface trough is causing scattered
showers across the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a broad surface
ridge is dominating much of the Gulf. Gentle with locally moderate
ENE to SSE winds and 1 to 4 ft seas are present for the entire
Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will maintain gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas through Fri
across the Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front is likely to
move into the northern Gulf by Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak 1013 mb low is persisting midway between the Isle of
Youth, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. Convergent SE winds east of
the low are generating scattered moderate convection between
central Cuba and Jamaica. A surface trough is producing similar
convection near and east of the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh NE to E trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to
ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure will devolve
into a surface trough later today, move westward to the Yucatan
Channel tonight and then dissipate Wed. High pressure building
from the north will gradually cause trade winds to return to
normal magnitude by midweek, with moderate to locally fresh NE to
E winds expected Wed into the weekend. Pulsing strong winds are
likely offshore Colombia during the overnight and early morning
hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak and slow moving cold front extends west-southwestward from
east of Bermuda across 31N62W to the northwest Bahamas. Patchy
showers and occurring near and up to 90 nm north of the front.
Farther east, divergent upper-level winds are enhancing scattered
moderate convection near a surface trough from 27N to 31N between
54W and 60W. Similar synoptic setting is creating similar convection
east of the Turk and Caicos Islands. At the central Atlantic, a
stationary front runs southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic
across 31N36W to 23N45W. Widely scattered showers are found up to
50 nm along either side of this feature. A robust surface trough
is bringing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms
near the coast of Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. Refer to
the monsoon trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are present near the surface trough from the Suriname and
French Guiana coast northward to 13N. For the rest of the tropical
Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles,
gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft exist.
North of the aforementioned cold front, moderate NE to ESE winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present. Farther east from 20N to 31N
between 51W and the cold front, light to gentle winds and 5 to 8
ft seas in large northerly swell dominate. North of 20N between
35W and 51W, gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft are
evident. Gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
slide eastward today and weaken further, stall tonight from
around 31N58W to 27N70W, then dissipate Wed. High pressure will
build southward in the wake of the front through late week,
leading to gentle breezes north of 25N and moderate E winds to
the south. North swell will induce rough seas north of 28N and
east of 70W into tonight. Thereafter, seas will gradually decay
from moderate to slight from west to east across the area through
late week. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off
northeast Florida late Fri through Sat ahead of a weak cold front
moving through the southeast U.S.

$$

Chan

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426
AXNT20 KNHC 182256
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 14N17W to 11N20W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 09N54W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails within 200 nm on either side of the
boundaries mainly E of 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad surface ridge is dominating much of the Gulf. A surface
trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche along 96W. Gentle to
moderate ENE to SSE winds and slight seas are present for the
entire Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeast U.S. will
maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate
seas through Sat across the basin. A low pressure may develop
over northeast Mexico this weekend, supporting moderate to fresh
SE winds and moderate seas over the northwest Gulf by late Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak 1013 mb low is analyzed near 21N82W. Convergent SE winds
east of the low are generating scattered moderate convection
between SE Cuba and adjacent waters. To the E, a surface trough
extends along 63W and N of 14N. The eastern extension of the
Pacific's monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate
convection across the SW Caribbean S of 10N between 75W-80W. Fresh
NE to E trade winds and moderate seas are noted over the south-
central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and slight seas
prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure will devolve into
a surface trough this evening, move W to the Yucatan Channel
tonight, then dissipate Wed. High pressure building from the north
will gradually cause tradewinds to return to normal magnitude by
mid- week, with moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds expected
Wed into the weekend. Pulsing strong winds are likely offshore
Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak and slow moving cold front extends from 31N62W to 28N72W,
then continues as a stationary front to 27N78W. To the E, a
surface trough extends from 29N59W to 25N63W. A divergent upper-
level winds are enhancing scattered moderate convection near the
trough N of 25N between 52W and 60W. At the central Atlantic, a
stationary front runs southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic
across 31N36W to 23N45W. Scattered showers are found up to 50 nm
along either side of this feature. A robust surface trough is
bringing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms near
the coast of Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are present
across the tropical Atlantic S of 20N, while light to gentle
variable winds prevail elsewhere E of the W Atlantic front. Rough
seas prevail N of 28N between 47W-63W and within 300 nm N of the
Cabo Verde Islands, while moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
become stationary and dissipate through Wed. High pressure will
build southward in the wake of the front through late week,
leading to gentle breezes N of 25N and moderate E winds to the
south. N swell will induce rough seas N of 28N and E of 70W into
tonight. Thereafter, moderate seas will gradually decay from
moderate to slight from west to east across the area through late
week. SW winds may increase slightly off northeast Florida late
Fri through Sat ahead of a weak cold front moving into the
southeast U.S.

$$
ERA

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911
AXNT20 KNHC 190422
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0422 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 14N17W and extends
southwestward to 19N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
04N50W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on
either side of the features mainly E of 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad surface ridge is dominating much of the Gulf. A surface
trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche along 92W. Gentle to
moderate NE to SE winds and slight seas are present across the entire
Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over Florida will
maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate
seas into Sat night across the basin. Low pressure over northern
Mexico may lead to winds increasing to fresh speeds in the NW Gulf
Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough over the NW Caribbean extends from south of Isla
de la Juventud to the Lower Florida Keys. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted along the trough, north of Cuba. To the E,
a surface trough is along 66W and N of 14N. Isolated convection
is found along the trough. The eastern extension of the Pacific's
monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection across
the SW Caribbean S of 10N between 76W-81W. Moderate to fresh NE to
E trade winds and moderate seas are noted over the south- central
part of the basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight
seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough over the NW
Caribbean will move west toward the Yucatan Channel and dissipate
by Wed. With high pressure to the north and the Colombian low to
the south, mainly moderate trades will dominate through the
weekend, with nightly pulses of locally strong winds possible
offshore Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N58W
to 27N78W. To the E, a surface trough extends from 30.5N53W to
25N60W. Divergent upper- level winds are supporting numerous
moderate convection near the trough N of 25N between 50W and 58W.
Isolated showers are found north of Hispaniola in association to
another surface trough. Over the central- Atlantic, a stationary
front runs southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across
31N37W to 24N42W. Scattered showers are found up to 50 nm along
either side of this feature. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds and moderate seas are present across the tropical Atlantic S
of 20N, while light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere E
of the western Atlantic front. Moderate seas prevail across the
basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front over the
western Atlantic will gradually dissipate into Wed night. A weak
cold front will move into northern waters Thu night then stall
over NE waters Fri, before dissipating. Through late week, gentle
breezes will prevail, with mainly slight to moderate seas. Rough
seas in N swell N of 29N and E of 65W will decay tonight. Looking
ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off northeast Florida late
Fri through Sat ahead of a weak cold front moving into the
southeast U.S.

$$
KRV

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387
AXNT20 KNHC 191009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 14N17W and extends
to 14N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N52W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on either
side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad surface ridge is dominating much of the Gulf. A surface
trough is analyzed over eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate mainly E winds and slight seas are present across the
entire Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure centered near northern Florida
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas
through Sat night across the basin. Low pressure over northern
Mexico may lead to winds increasing to fresh speeds in the NW Gulf
Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends southward from far western Cuba to around
20N85W. Associated convection has dissipated early this morning.
Another surface trough extends southward from Puerto Rico to near
12N. It is inducing scattered moderate convection just E of its
axis within about 150 nm of Puerto Rico. The eastern extension
of the Pacific's monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate
convection across the SW Caribbean S of 10N between 76W-81W.
Moderate to fresh trades dominate most of the basin, except for
the NW, where gentle E winds prevail. Locally strong winds are
ongoing offshore Colombia. Slight seas prevail in the NW
Caribbean, with moderate seas elsewhere, peaking around 7 ft
offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, the surface trough in the NW basin will
dissipate today as it drifts west into the Yucatan Channel. With
high pressure to the north and the Colombian low to the south,
mainly moderate trades will dominate through the weekend, with
nightly pulses of locally strong winds possible offshore Colombia.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N58W
to just E of the NW Bahamas. To the E, a surface trough extending
from 31N52W to 26N58W is inducing numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection within about 90 nm ahead of its axis. Locally
gusty winds are likely associated with the stronger thunderstorms.
Over the central Atlantic, another stationary front along 39W to
the N of 22N is inducing scattered moderate convection along and
within 60 nm E of it. Away form convection, winds N of 20N are
moderate or weaker, with moderate to locally fresh trades
dominating waters S of 20N. Seas E of 65W are 5 to 8 ft, with 2 to
5 seas to the W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western stationary front will
mostly dissipate into tonight, but a portion of it will persist
along 55W from about 23N northward through late week. Gentle
breezes will prevail across area waters, with mainly slight to
moderate seas. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off
northeast Florida Fri night through Sat ahead of a weak cold front
moving into the southeast U.S.

$$
Konarik

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976
AXNT20 KNHC 191009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 14N17W and extends
to 14N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N52W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on either
side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad surface ridge is dominating much of the Gulf. A surface
trough is analyzed over eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate mainly E winds and slight seas are present across the
entire Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure centered near northern Florida
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas
through Sat night across the basin. Low pressure over northern
Mexico may lead to winds increasing to fresh speeds in the NW Gulf
Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends southward from far western Cuba to around
20N85W. Associated convection has dissipated early this morning.
Another surface trough extends southward from Puerto Rico to near
12N. It is inducing scattered moderate convection just E of its
axis within about 150 nm of Puerto Rico. The eastern extension
of the Pacific's monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate
convection across the SW Caribbean S of 10N between 76W-81W.
Moderate to fresh trades dominate most of the basin, except for
the NW, where gentle E winds prevail. Locally strong winds are
ongoing offshore Colombia. Slight seas prevail in the NW
Caribbean, with moderate seas elsewhere, peaking around 7 ft
offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, the surface trough in the NW basin will
dissipate today as it drifts west into the Yucatan Channel. With
high pressure to the north and the Colombian low to the south,
mainly moderate trades will dominate through the weekend, with
nightly pulses of locally strong winds possible offshore Colombia.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N58W
to just E of the NW Bahamas. To the E, a surface trough extending
from 31N52W to 26N58W is inducing numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection within about 90 nm ahead of its axis. Locally
gusty winds are likely associated with the stronger thunderstorms.
Over the central Atlantic, another stationary front along 39W to
the N of 22N is inducing scattered moderate convection along and
within 60 nm E of it. Away form convection, winds N of 20N are
moderate or weaker, with moderate to locally fresh trades
dominating waters S of 20N. Seas E of 65W are 5 to 8 ft, with 2 to
5 seas to the W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western stationary front will
mostly dissipate into tonight, but a portion of it will persist
along 55W from about 23N northward through late week. Gentle
breezes will prevail across area waters, with mainly slight to
moderate seas. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off
northeast Florida Fri night through Sat ahead of a weak cold front
moving into the southeast U.S.

$$
Konarik

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789
AXNT20 KNHC 191740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast, then
runs southwestward to 10N20W. An ITCZ continues westward from
10N20W across 07N40W to just north of Guyana at 09N60W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near and south
of the ITCZ/monsoon trough from 03N to 10N between the Liberia
coast and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up
to 100 nm north of the ITCZ between 50W and 60W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms along the
Caribbean coast of Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the Yucatan
Channel, including part of the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a
broad surface ridge continues to dominate much of the Gulf.
Moderate to fresh E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present across
the Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are
found at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and
slight to moderate seas will occur over the Gulf through Fri as
high pressure prevails over the northeastern Gulf and southeastern
U.S. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse offshore of
the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche each
afternoon and evening through this weekend. Looking ahead, fresh
SE winds may develop over the northwestern Gulf late this weekend
as low pressure strengthens in the south-central U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is creating widely scattered moderate convection
at the eastern basin, including the Mona Passage and Lesser
Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh with locally
strong NE to E trade winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at
the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3
ft Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with 3 to 5 ft seas
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds
are expected over the Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and
low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally strong winds and
rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia each night through
Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front meanders west-southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N56W to the northwest Bahamas. A surface
trough is seen just south of the front near 28N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is found near the front/trough north of 22N
between 51W and 65W. Another stationary front curves southwestward
from the northeastern Atlantic across 30N35W to 24N42W. Widely
scattered showers are present up to 60 nm along either side of
this boundary. Another surface trough is triggering widely scattered
moderate convection from 20N to 24N between 62W and the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are seen north of 25N
between 65W and the Florida/Bahamas. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate to large northerly
swell dominate the rest of the Atlantic north of 20N between 35W
and the Florida/Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N
to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh easterly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted.
Gentle with locally moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft
in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin
west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh NE
winds are expected north of Hispaniola and Cuba, and through the
Bahamas through Fri as high pressure prevails over the northeastern
Gulf of America and the southeastern U.S. Moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Fri.
Looking ahead, increasing SW winds and building seas may occur
offshore of northern Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front
moving through the southeastern U.S.

$$

Chan

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998
AXNT20 KNHC 192251
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Nov 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 11N20W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 09N60W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails from 03N-10N and E of 34W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the Yucatan
Channel, including part of the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a
broad surface ridge continues to dominate much of the Gulf.
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are present across
the Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
found at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
and slight to moderate seas dominate the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and
slight to moderate seas will occur over the basin through Fri
morning as high pressure prevails over the northeastern Gulf and
southeastern U.S. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE winds
will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern
Bay of Campeche each afternoon and evening through this weekend.
Fresh to strong SE winds may develop over the northwestern Gulf
late this weekend as low pressure strengthens in the south-
central U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection over
the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage and Lesser
Antilles. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough
is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms along the
Caribbean coast of Panama mainly S of 10N. Moderate to fresh NE
to E trade winds and rough seas are evident at the south-central
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds
are expected over the Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and
low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally strong winds and
rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia tonight, and again by
this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front meanders west-southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N56W to the northern Bahamas. A surface
trough is analyzed from 31N52W to 25N61W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is found near the front/trough north of 21N
between 50W and 65W. This activity is also supported by an upper-
level low in the area. Another stationary front curves
southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 30N35W to
24N42W. Scattered showers are present up to 60 nm along either
side of this boundary. Another surface trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection from 20N to 22N between 66W-71W.

Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted north of 25N
between 65W and the Florida/Bahamas. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh NE
winds are expected north of Hispaniola and Cuba and through the
Bahamas through Fri as high pressure prevails over the
northeastern Gulf of America and the southeastern U.S. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh NE winds are expected north of 27N and east of
65W through Thu as a complex low pressure system forms. Moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere
through Fri. Increasing SW winds and building seas may occur
offshore of northern Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front
moving through the southeastern U.S.

$$
ERA

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911
AXNT20 KNHC 200442
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Nov 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0442 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 07N26W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 09N52W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails from 03N to 11N and E of 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad surface ridge continues to dominate much of the Gulf.
Moderate E winds and moderate seas are present across the Florida
Straits. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are found at the
northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas dominate the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, mainly moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas will occur over the basin into the weekend as high
pressure prevails over the northeastern Gulf and southeastern U.S.
Locally fresh NE winds will pulse offshore of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche each afternoon and
evening. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SE winds may
develop over the northwestern Gulf for the start of next week as
low pressure strengthens in the south- central U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing isolated moderate convection over
the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage and Lesser
Antilles. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough
is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms along the
Caribbean coast of Panama mainly S of 12N. Fresh to locally strong
NE trade winds and rough seas are evident at the south-central
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with moderate seas
prevail elsewhere, except for fresh winds over the Windward
Passage and the offshore waters of central-Cuba.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds
are expected over the Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and
low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally strong winds and
rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia tonight, and again
starting this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends west-southwestward from a weak 1019 mb
low near 31N55W, then it has begun to dissipate from 28N69W to
the northern Bahamas. In addition, a surface trough extends from
the same low southward to 22N53W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is found along these features. This activity is also
supported by an upper- level low in the area. Another surface
trough is producing scattered moderate convection from 24N to 27N
between 39W and 44W. To the east, a cold front curves
southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N21W to
30N34W.

Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted north of 25N
between 65W and the Florida/Bahamas. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh NE
winds are expected north of Hispaniola and Cuba and into the
Bahamas through Fri as high pressure prevails over the
southeastern U.S. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected elsewhere into the weekend. Looking ahead,
increasing SW winds and building seas may occur offshore of
northern Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front moving off the
southeastern U.S.

$$
KRV

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076
AXNT20 KNHC 200442
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Nov 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0442 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 07N26W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 09N52W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails from 03N to 11N and E of 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad surface ridge continues to dominate much of the Gulf.
Moderate E winds and moderate seas are present across the Florida
Straits. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are found at the
northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas dominate the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, mainly moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas will occur over the basin into the weekend as high
pressure prevails over the northeastern Gulf and southeastern U.S.
Locally fresh NE winds will pulse offshore of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche each afternoon and
evening. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SE winds may
develop over the northwestern Gulf for the start of next week as
low pressure strengthens in the south- central U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing isolated moderate convection over
the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage and Lesser
Antilles. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough
is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms along the
Caribbean coast of Panama mainly S of 12N. Fresh to locally strong
NE trade winds and rough seas are evident at the south-central
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with moderate seas
prevail elsewhere, except for fresh winds over the Windward
Passage and the offshore waters of central-Cuba.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds
are expected over the Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and
low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally strong winds and
rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia tonight, and again
starting this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends west-southwestward from a weak 1019 mb
low near 31N55W, then it has begun to dissipate from 28N69W to
the northern Bahamas. In addition, a surface trough extends from
the same low southward to 22N53W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is found along these features. This activity is also
supported by an upper- level low in the area. Another surface
trough is producing scattered moderate convection from 24N to 27N
between 39W and 44W. To the east, a cold front curves
southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N21W to
30N34W.

Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted north of 25N
between 65W and the Florida/Bahamas. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh NE
winds are expected north of Hispaniola and Cuba and into the
Bahamas through Fri as high pressure prevails over the
southeastern U.S. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected elsewhere into the weekend. Looking ahead,
increasing SW winds and building seas may occur offshore of
northern Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front moving off the
southeastern U.S.

$$
KRV

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798
AXNT20 KNHC 201011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Nov 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 07N26W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 08N52W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection convection prevails along the monsoon
trough from 04N to 14N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure centered just offshore Florida continues to dominate
Gulf weather, providing moderate or weaker SE winds and seas
generally of 2 to 4 ft. The highest winds and seas are offshore
TX and far NE Mexico, east of developing low pressure. The calmest
conditions are offshore Florida.

For the forecast, mainly moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas will occur over the basin through the weekend as
high pressure prevails over the southeastern U.S. Locally fresh NE
winds will pulse in the eastern Bay of Campeche each afternoon
and evening. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SE winds may
develop over the northwestern Gulf for the start of next week as
low pressure strengthens in the south- central U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough along 70W is inducing scattered moderate
convection just south of Hispaniola. The eastern extension of the
East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection along the Caribbean coast of Panama S
of 11N. Fresh NE trades are present over much of the central and
western basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the east. Moderate
seas prevail. Locally strong winds and rough seas are present
offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds
are expected over the Caribbean into the start of next week as a
moderate pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the
north and low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally strong
winds and rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia starting this
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1016 mb low near 32N55W to
28N68W. Scattered moderate convection is along this front N of 28N
between 58W and 65W. Extending south from the low is a surface
trough that continues to 23N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted along this trough N of 25N between 51W
and 55W. In the far east Atlantic, a cold front stretches from
31N19W to 27N25W to 29N34W. Fresh NE winds and rough seas follow
this cold front. Elsewhere, winds and seas are mainly moderate or
less across the entire basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh NE
winds are expected north of Hispaniola and Cuba and into the
Bahamas through Fri as high pressure prevails over the
southeastern U.S. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected elsewhere into the weekend. Increasing SW winds
and building seas may occur offshore of northern Florida this
weekend ahead of a cold front moving off the southeastern U.S.

$$
Konarik

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156
AXNT20 KNHC 201743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Nov 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast, then
runs southwestward to 07N21W. An ITCZ continues westward from
07N21W across 06N35W to 09N52W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring near and south of the monsoon
trough and part of the ITCZ from 03N to 10N between the Sierra
Leone/Liberia coast and 22W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is seen near and up to 120 nm north of the rest of the ITCZ.

Enhanced by an upper-level trough, the eastern end of the East
Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa
Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the central Gulf.
Otherwise, a surface ridge related to a 1022 mb high over the
Florida Panhandle continues to dominate the Gulf. Light to gentle
winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are found at the northeastern Gulf.
Moderate to fresh SSE winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are present off
the southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Gentle to moderate
with locally fresh ESE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche
each afternoon and evening into next week as a trough develops
each day and moves westward. Elsewhere in the Gulf, moderate to
occasionally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected through Fri as ridging prevails over the southeastern
United States. Looking ahead, fresh SE winds will develop in the
northwestern Gulf Sun into next week as a low pressure system
moves through the southern United States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing widely scattered showers near and
south of Hispaniola. Convergent trade winds are coupling with
divergent flow aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over Trinidad and Tobago, and near the southern
Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds and seas at 5 to 9 ft are found across the western
basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to
E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted in the central and eastern
basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over
the basin into next week as low pressure anchors over the south-
central basin and high pressure prevails north of the region.
Pulsing strong winds and locally rough seas are expected offshore
of northern Colombia each night and morning from Sat into next
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves southwestward from a 1016 mb low near
33N54W across 31N56W to 28N68W. A surface trough extends southward
from this low across 31N54W to 21N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident near and up to 150 nm north of the front,
and near and up to 175 nm east of the trough. A surface trough is
bringing similar convection near the southeast Bahamas, and Turks
and Caicos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at
the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to locally moderate NW to NE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft
are found north of 20N between 55W and the Florida/southern
Georgia coast. To the east, moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and
seas of 6 to 9 ft dominate north of 20N between 35W and 55W. For
the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate ESE to E winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are
found. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle
with locally moderate ESE to SSE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in
mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will
occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and
central Bahamas into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the
north and low pressure anchors over the south-central Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are expected
north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of northern
Florida, by Sat as a cold front moves off the east coast of the
U.S. The front is slated to enter the Atlantic waters east of
Florida on Sun, leading to moderate N to NE winds and building
seas in the wake of the front.

$$

Chan

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731
AXNT20 KNHC 202229
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast, then
runs southwestward to 07N21W. An ITCZ continues westward from
07N21W across 06N35W to 08N54W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring near and south of the monsoon
trough and part of the ITCZ north of 04N east of 17W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the central Gulf.
Otherwise, a surface ridge related to a 1021 mb high just west of
Tampa continues to dominate the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and
1-2 ft seas are found at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to
fresh SSE winds and seas at 3-5 ft are present off the southern
Texas and northeastern Mexico. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh ESE winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will
pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of
Campeche each afternoon and evening into next week as a trough
develops each day and moves westward. Elsewhere, moderate to
occasionally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected over much of the Gulf through Fri as ridging prevails
over the southeastern United States. Looking ahead, fresh to
locally strong SE winds will develop in the northwestern Gulf Sun
into next week as a low pressure system moves through the
southern United States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing widely scattered showers near and
south of Hispaniola. Convergent trade winds are coupling with
divergent flow aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over Trinidad and Tobago, and near the southern
Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds and seas at 4-8 ft are found across the western
basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to
E winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted in the central and eastern
basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over
the basin into next week as low pressure anchors over the south-
central Caribbean and high pressure prevails north of the region.
Pulsing strong winds and locally rough seas are expected
offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning this weekend
into next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves southwestward from a 1014 mb low near
33N54W across 31N57W to 28N68W. A surface trough extends
southward from this low across 31N55W to 21N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident near and up to 120 NM north of
the front, and near and up to 240 NM east of the trough. A
surface trough is bringing scattered showers near the southeast
Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in
the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to locally moderate NW to NE winds and seas at 3-6 ft are
found north of 20N between 55W and the Florida-Georgia coast. To
the east, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 6-9 ft
dominate north of 20N between 35W and 55W. For the tropical
Atlantic from 05N-20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles,
gentle to moderate E trades and 5-7 ft seas are found. For the
Atlantic Basin east of 35W, a 1015 mb low at 30N25W with an
associated cold front extending to its southwest is producing
fresh to strong NE winds north of 27N between 25W-35W with seas
8-12 ft. Elsewhere east of 35W, winds are moderate or lighter
with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will
occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and
central Bahamas into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the
north and low pressure anchors over the south-central Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to SW winds are expected
north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of northern
Florida, by Sat as a cold front moves off the east coast of the
U.S. The front is slated to enter the northern waters on Sun,
leading to moderate N to NE winds and building seas in the wake
of the front.

$$
Chan/Adams/Landsea

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399
AXNT20 KNHC 210418
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0418 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, then runs
southwestward to 09N24W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N24W
to 09N53W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring near and south of the monsoon trough and part of the
ITCZ north of 03.5N east of 24W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection across the Caribbean waters near
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is causing isolated showers over the NW Gulf.
Otherwise, a surface ridge related to a 1019 mb high just west of
Spring Hill, FL continues to dominate the Gulf. Light to gentle
winds and 1-2 ft seas are found at the northeastern Gulf.
Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas at 3-5 ft are present
off the southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Gentle to moderate
with locally fresh ESE winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will
pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of
Campeche each afternoon and evening into next week as a trough
develops each day and moves westward. Elsewhere, moderate to
occasionally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected over much of the Gulf through Fri as ridging prevails
over the southeastern United States. Looking ahead, fresh to
locally strong SE winds will develop in the northwestern Gulf Sun
into next week as a low pressure system moves through the southern
United States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing isolated showers near and south of
Hispaniola. Convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent
flow aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over Trinidad and Tobago, and near the southern
Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds and seas at 4-8 ft are found across the western basin,
including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh ENE to E winds and 3-6 ft seas are noted in the central and
eastern basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over
the basin into next week as low pressure anchors over the south-
central Caribbean and high pressure prevails north of the region.
Pulsing strong winds and locally rough seas are expected offshore
of northern Colombia each night and morning this weekend into next
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves southwestward from a 1013 mb low near
33N54W across 31N54W to 28N68W. A surface trough is ahead of the
stationary front and extends from 31N50W to 22N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident along these features particularly,
north of 26N between 58W and 62W, and north of 22N between 46W
and 54W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to locally moderate NW to NE winds and seas at 3-6 ft are
found north of 20N between 50W and the Florida-Georgia coast. To
the east, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 8-10 ft
dominate north of 26N between 35W and 50W. For the tropical
Atlantic from 05N-20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle
to moderate E trades and 5-7 ft seas are found. For the Atlantic
Basin east of 35W, a 1015 mb low at 28N25W with an associated cold
front extending to its southwest is producing fresh to strong NE
winds north of 28N between 22W-35W with seas 8-14 ft. Elsewhere
east of 35W, winds are moderate or lighter with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will
occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and
central Bahamas into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the
north and low pressure anchors over the south-central Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are expected
north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of northern
Florida by Sat as a cold front moves off the east coast of the
U.S. The front is forecast to enter the northern waters on Sun,
leading to mostly moderate N to NE winds and building seas in the
wake of the front.

$$
KRV

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934
AXNT20 KNHC 211019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and
continues southwestward to 09N24W, where it transitions to
the ITCZ to 09N35W to 08N42W and to 09N54W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring near and south of the
monsoon trough from 05N to 11N between the coast of Africa and
18W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm northwest of
the monsoon trough between 17W-20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure that is anchored by 1019 mb high
center over northern Florida is over the eastern and central Gulf
portions. The associated gradient is generally allowing for light
to gentle winds over the NE Gulf with seas of 1 to 2 ft, however,
a tighter gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures
in Texas and northern Mexico is maintaining moderate to occasionally
fresh southeast to south winds across the majority of the central
and western Gulf waters along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

A trough extends from just east of northeast Texas southeastward
to near 26N90W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with
isolated, small showers are noted from 26N to 30N between 90W and
94W.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure in place will change
little into early next week. A weak cold front will move across
the northern Gulf Sat through Sun, with very little impact on
winds and seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of
Campeche each afternoon and evening into next week as a trough
develops each day and moves westward. Elsewhere, moderate to
occasionally fresh SE to S winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected over much of the Gulf today as ridging prevails over the
southeastern United States. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong
SE winds will develop in the northwestern Gulf starting late Sun
into next week as the pressure gradient between the high pressure
and low pressure W of the area Gulf tightens. A cold front then
moves into the far western Gulf early on Tue, then stalls and
weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak ridging stretches southward from the western Atlantic toward
the northwestern Caribbean while a trough is analyzed from near
the southeastern Bahamas through the Windward Passage, to
southwestern Haiti and to near 16N74W. Isolated showers are near
the trough, and over some sections of Haiti. Overnight partial
scatterometer satellite data indicates that mostly fresh trade
winds are confined to the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7
ft with these winds. Fresh NE winds are in the lee of Cuba and
in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds
are present across the basin along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are confined to the
southwestern Caribbean as the eastern extent of the eastern
Pacific monsoon trough is within close proximity of this section
of the sea.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue
over the basin into next week as low pressure anchors over the
south-central Caribbean and high pressure prevails north of the
region. Pulsing strong winds and locally rough seas are expected
offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning this weekend
into next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from a 1013 mb low that is north
of the area near 34N53W south-southwestward to 30N55W, to 29N60W
and to 27.5N67W. A trough is ahead of the stationary front along
a position from 31N48W to 27N50W and to 23N54.5W. An upper-level
trough is over this area, and is helping to sustain scattered
moderate convection from 22N to 31N between 47W and 54W. Over the
eastern Atlantic, a 1015 mb low has dropped to south of 30N near
29N25W 1015 mb. An occluded front extends from the low to 30N24W.
A cold front extends from that point to 26N25W and to 25N30W,
where it transitions to a shearline to 26N35W and to 27N40W.
Strong high pressure is present north of the low and fronts, with
the resultant pressure allowing for fresh northeast to east winds
to exist north of this system. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in mixed swell
north of 26N between 24W and 46W. Elsewhere, gentle to locally
moderate NW to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are north of 20N
between 50W and the Florida-Georgia coast. In the tropical
Atlantic,roughly from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
present across those waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will
occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and
central Bahamas into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the
north and low pressure remains anchored over the south-central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are
expected north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of
northern Florida by Sat as a cold front moves off the east coast
of the U.S. The front is forecast to enter the northern waters on
Sun, followed by mostly moderate N to NE winds and building seas
in the wake of the front.

$$
Aguirre

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085
AXNT20 KNHC 211021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and
continues southwestward to 09N24W, where it transitions to
the ITCZ to 09N35W to 08N42W and to 09N54W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring near and south of the
monsoon trough from 05N to 11N between the coast of Africa and
18W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm northwest of
the monsoon trough between 17W-20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure that is anchored by 1019 mb high
center over northern Florida is over the eastern and central Gulf
portions. The associated gradient is generally allowing for light
to gentle winds over the NE Gulf with seas of 1 to 2 ft, however,
a tighter gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures
in Texas and northern Mexico is maintaining moderate to occasionally
fresh southeast to south winds across the majority of the central
and western Gulf waters along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

A trough extends from just east of northeast Texas southeastward
to near 26N90W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with
isolated, small showers are noted from 26N to 30N between 90W and
94W.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure in place will change
little into early next week. A weak cold front will move across
the northern Gulf Sat through Sun, with very little impact on
winds and seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of
Campeche each afternoon and evening into next week as a trough
develops each day and moves westward. Elsewhere, moderate to
occasionally fresh SE to S winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected over much of the Gulf today as ridging prevails over the
southeastern United States. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong
SE winds will develop in the northwestern Gulf starting late Sun
into next week as the pressure gradient between the high pressure
and low pressure W of the area Gulf tightens. A cold front then
moves into the far western Gulf early on Tue, then stalls and
weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak ridging stretches southward from the western Atlantic toward
the northwestern Caribbean while a trough is analyzed from near
the southeastern Bahamas through the Windward Passage, to
southwestern Haiti and to near 16N74W. Isolated showers are near
the trough, and over some sections of Haiti. Overnight partial
scatterometer satellite data indicates that mostly fresh trade
winds are confined to the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7
ft with these winds. Fresh NE winds are in the lee of Cuba and
in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds
are present across the basin along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are confined to the
southwestern Caribbean as the eastern extent of the eastern
Pacific monsoon trough is within close proximity of this section
of the sea.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue
over the basin into next week as low pressure anchors over the
south-central Caribbean and high pressure prevails north of the
region. Pulsing strong winds and locally rough seas are expected
offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning this weekend
into next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from a 1013 mb low that is north
of the area near 34N53W south-southwestward to 30N55W, to 29N60W
and to 27.5N67W. A trough is ahead of the stationary front along
a position from 31N48W to 27N50W and to 23N54.5W. An upper-level
trough is over this area, and is helping to sustain scattered
moderate convection from 22N to 31N between 47W and 54W. Over the
eastern Atlantic, a 1015 mb low has dropped to south of 30N near
29N25W 1015 mb. An occluded front extends from the low to 30N24W.
A cold front extends from that point to 26N25W and to 25N30W,
where it transitions to a shearline to 26N35W and to 27N40W.
Strong high pressure is present north of the low and fronts, with
the resultant pressure allowing for fresh northeast to east winds
to exist north of this system. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in mixed swell
north of 26N between 24W and 46W. Elsewhere, gentle to locally
moderate NW to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are north of 20N
between 50W and the Florida-Georgia coast. In the tropical
Atlantic,roughly from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
present across those waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will
occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and
central Bahamas into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the
north and low pressure remains anchored over the south-central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are
expected north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of
northern Florida by Sat as a cold front moves off the east coast
of the U.S. The front is forecast to enter the northern waters on
Sun, followed by mostly moderate N to NE winds and building seas
in the wake of the front.

$$
Aguirre

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080
AXNT20 KNHC 211659
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues
southwestward to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 07N40W
and to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 13N
between 19W and 23W, and from 06N to 09N between 40W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure centered over central Florida dominates the Gulf
region producing a gentle to moderate SE to S wind flow, with the
exception of light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf. Seas are in
general 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft over the NE Gulf. Some shower
activity is noted over SE Louisiana and the N-central Gulf N of
26N. A diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective activity.

For the forecast, moderate S to SE winds will prevail over much
of the Gulf today as high pressure drifts over the northeastern
basin and the southeastern United States. Moderate to occasionally
fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening in
the Bay of Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a
diurnal trough develops and moves westward over the region.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds are expected to
develop offshore of Texas and eastern Mexico late this weekend
into next week, with locally fresh SE to SW winds expanding over
the central and eastern Gulf through midweek, as a cold front
moves over the southern U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure located N of the area combined with the Colombian low
is promoting fresh to strong trade winds offshore Colombia with
moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are noted over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds are present across the basin along
with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms,
are confined to the southwestern Caribbean likely associated with
the eastern extent of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Low-topped
trade wind showers are seen elsewhere, with isolated thunderstorms
in the regional waters of Jamaica.

For the forecast, strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore of
northern Colombia each night and morning through the middle of
next week as low pressure prevails over the south-central Caribbean.
Rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds.
Otherwise, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the
rest of the basin through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N70W and continues SW
to near 29N77W. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, with a
1021 mb high pressure located over central Florida. Moderate to
locally fresh NE winds are blowing between the Bahamas and Cuba
while light to gentle winds are observed across the remainder of
the area N of 20N W of 55W. Slight to moderate seas are within
these winds. Another cold front is over the central Atlantic and
extends from a 1013 mb low pressure located N of area near 36N51W
to 26N56W. E of the front, a surface trough is analyzed and
stretches from 31N50W to a 1015 mb low pressure situated near
22.5N55W to 19N57W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near
these features. An upper-level trough is present in this region.
Farther E, another trough is along 28W from 20N to 30N. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are on the E side of the trough axis to
about 21W, from 24N to 29N. The pressure gradient between this
trough and high pressure of 1034 mb located NE of the Azores is
resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of 27N
between 25W and 35W. Rough seas are within these wind speeds.
Mainly moderate trades with moderate seas dominate the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will
occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and
central Bahamas into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the
north and low pressure remains anchored over the south-central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are
expected north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of
northern Florida by Sat as a cold front moves off the east coast
of the U.S. The front is forecast to enter the northern waters on
Sun, followed by mostly moderate N to NE winds and building seas
in the wake of the front.

$$
GR

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218
AXNT20 KNHC 211659
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues
southwestward to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 07N40W
and to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 13N
between 19W and 23W, and from 06N to 09N between 40W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure centered over central Florida dominates the Gulf
region producing a gentle to moderate SE to S wind flow, with the
exception of light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf. Seas are in
general 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft over the NE Gulf. Some shower
activity is noted over SE Louisiana and the N-central Gulf N of
26N. A diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective activity.

For the forecast, moderate S to SE winds will prevail over much
of the Gulf today as high pressure drifts over the northeastern
basin and the southeastern United States. Moderate to occasionally
fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening in
the Bay of Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a
diurnal trough develops and moves westward over the region.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds are expected to
develop offshore of Texas and eastern Mexico late this weekend
into next week, with locally fresh SE to SW winds expanding over
the central and eastern Gulf through midweek, as a cold front
moves over the southern U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure located N of the area combined with the Colombian low
is promoting fresh to strong trade winds offshore Colombia with
moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are noted over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds are present across the basin along
with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms,
are confined to the southwestern Caribbean likely associated with
the eastern extent of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Low-topped
trade wind showers are seen elsewhere, with isolated thunderstorms
in the regional waters of Jamaica.

For the forecast, strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore of
northern Colombia each night and morning through the middle of
next week as low pressure prevails over the south-central Caribbean.
Rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds.
Otherwise, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the
rest of the basin through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N70W and continues SW
to near 29N77W. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, with a
1021 mb high pressure located over central Florida. Moderate to
locally fresh NE winds are blowing between the Bahamas and Cuba
while light to gentle winds are observed across the remainder of
the area N of 20N W of 55W. Slight to moderate seas are within
these winds. Another cold front is over the central Atlantic and
extends from a 1013 mb low pressure located N of area near 36N51W
to 26N56W. E of the front, a surface trough is analyzed and
stretches from 31N50W to a 1015 mb low pressure situated near
22.5N55W to 19N57W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near
these features. An upper-level trough is present in this region.
Farther E, another trough is along 28W from 20N to 30N. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are on the E side of the trough axis to
about 21W, from 24N to 29N. The pressure gradient between this
trough and high pressure of 1034 mb located NE of the Azores is
resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of 27N
between 25W and 35W. Rough seas are within these wind speeds.
Mainly moderate trades with moderate seas dominate the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will
occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and
central Bahamas into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the
north and low pressure remains anchored over the south-central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are
expected north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of
northern Florida by Sat as a cold front moves off the east coast
of the U.S. The front is forecast to enter the northern waters on
Sun, followed by mostly moderate N to NE winds and building seas
in the wake of the front.

$$
GR

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037
AXNT20 KNHC 211808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues
southwestward to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 07N40W
and to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 13N
between 19W and 23W, and from 06N to 09N between 40W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure centered over central Florida dominates the Gulf
region producing a gentle to moderate SE to S wind flow, with the
exception of light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf. Seas are in
general 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft over the NE Gulf. Some shower
activity is noted over SE Louisiana and the N-central Gulf N of
26N. A diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective activity.

For the forecast, moderate S to SE winds will prevail over much
of the Gulf today as high pressure drifts over the northeastern
basin and the southeastern United States. Moderate to occasionally
fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening in
the Bay of Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a
diurnal trough develops and moves westward over the region.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds are expected to
develop offshore of Texas and eastern Mexico late this weekend
into next week, with locally fresh SE to SW winds expanding over
the central and eastern Gulf through midweek, as a cold front
moves over the southern U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure located N of the area combined with the Colombian low
is promoting fresh to strong trade winds offshore Colombia with
moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are noted over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds are present across the basin along
with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms,
are confined to the southwestern Caribbean likely associated with
the eastern extent of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Low-topped
trade wind showers are seen elsewhere, with isolated thunderstorms
in the regional waters of Jamaica.

For the forecast, strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore of
northern Colombia each night and morning through the middle of
next week as low pressure prevails over the south-central Caribbean.
Rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds.
Otherwise, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the
rest of the basin through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N70W and continues SW
to near 29N77W. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, with a
1021 mb high pressure located over central Florida. Moderate to
locally fresh NE winds are blowing between the Bahamas and Cuba
while light to gentle winds are observed across the remainder of
the area N of 20N W of 55W. Slight to moderate seas are within
these winds. Another cold front is over the central Atlantic and
extends from a 1013 mb low pressure located N of area near 36N51W
to 26N56W. E of the front, a surface trough is analyzed and
stretches from 31N50W to a 1015 mb low pressure situated near
22.5N55W to 19N57W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near
these features. An upper-level trough is present in this region.
Farther E, another trough is along 28W from 20N to 30N. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are on the E side of the trough axis to
about 21W, from 24N to 29N. The pressure gradient between this
trough and high pressure of 1034 mb located NE of the Azores is
resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of 27N
between 25W and 35W. Rough seas are within these wind speeds.
Mainly moderate trades with moderate seas dominate the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, locally fresh NE winds are expected
over the southern Bahamas and through the Windward Passage through
Sat morning as low pressure prevails in the south-central Caribbean.
Farther north, moderate to fresh W to SW winds will occur offshore
of northern Florida by Sat morning, with winds expanding farther
east into the central Atlantic through Sun morning, ahead of a cold
front pushing off the east coast of the United States. The cold
front is slated to move southeastward along the Florida Peninsula
and into the northwestern waters this weekend into early next week,
with moderate to fresh N to NE winds and building seas expected in
the wake of the front. Looking ahead, widespread moderate to fresh
trade winds will occur over much of the western Atlantic by midweek
as high pressure builds off the coast of the eastern U.S.

$$
GR

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829
AXNT20 KNHC 212304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Nov 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 09N23W to 07N40W
and to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 16N
and E of 20W, and from 05N to 12N between 26W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure centered over the W Atlantic dominates the Gulf
region producing a gentle to moderate SE to S wind flow, with the
exception of light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf. Moderate seas
prevail across most of the area, except for slight seas over the
NE Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds
are expected each afternoon and evening in the Bay of Campeche and
north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a diurnal trough develops and
moves westward over the region. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through much of
this weekend. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SE winds are
expected to develop offshore of Texas and eastern Mexico late this
weekend into next week, with locally fresh SE to SW winds
expanding over the central and eastern Gulf by midweek, as a cold
front moves over the southern U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure located N of the area combined with the Colombian low
is promoting fresh to strong trade winds offshore Colombia with
moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are noted over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds are present across the basin along
with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms,
are confined to the southwestern Caribbean likely associated with
the eastern extent of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Low-topped
trade wind showers are seen elsewhere, with isolated thunderstorms
in the regional waters of Jamaica.

For the forecast, strong E to NE winds will pulse offshore of northern
Colombia each night and morning through the middle of next week as
low pressure prevails over the south-central Caribbean. Rough
seas are expected near and to the west of these winds. Otherwise,
high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will support
moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the rest of
the basin through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N66W and continues
SW to near 28N76W. No significant convection is noted along the
frontal boundary. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
western Atlantic, with a 1020 mb high pressure located near 30N72W.
Gentle to moderate NE winds are blowing between the Bahamas and
Cuba while light to gentle winds are observed across the remainder
of the area N of 20N W of 55W. Slight to moderate seas are within
these winds. To the E, a 1011 mb low is centered near 23N55W. An
surface trough is from 31N52W to the low to 20N57W. A surface
trough is analyzed from 30N28W to 22N28W. Scattered showers are
noted in the vicinity of the trough. The pressure gradient
between this trough and high pressure of 1033 mb located NE of
the Azores is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE to E
winds N of 27N between 25W and 35W. Rough seas are within these
wind speeds. Mainly moderate trades with moderate seas dominate
the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, locally fresh NE winds are expected
over the southern Bahamas and through the Windward Passage
through Sat morning as low pressure prevails in the south-central
Caribbean. Farther north, moderate to fresh W to SW winds will
occur offshore of northern Florida by Sat morning, with winds
expanding farther east into the central Atlantic through Sun
morning, ahead of a cold front pushing off the east coast of the
United States. The cold front is slated to move southeastward
along the Florida Peninsula and into the northwestern waters this
weekend into early next week, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds
and building seas expected in the wake of the front. Looking
ahead, widespread moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over
much of the western Atlantic by midweek as high pressure builds
off the coast of the eastern U.S.

$$
ERA

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652
AXNT20 KNHC 220543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Nov 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 06N40W
and to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N
between 22W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure centered over the W Atlantic dominates the Gulf,
with moderate to fresh E to NE winds prevailing S of 24N. Winds
N of 24N are moderate or weaker. Seas of 1-4 ft prevail across the
Gulf.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure extends from the
western Atlantic westward over the eastern and central Gulf. The
high pressure will shift southeastward through Sun as a mostly dry
cold front moves across the northern Gulf waters. Fresh to
locally strong southeast to south winds are expected to develop
offshore of Texas and eastern Mexico Sun night into Mon afternoon
before becoming mostly fresh south to southwest winds across the
central and western Gulf through late Mon night as another weak
cold front moves off the Texas coast. The front will continue to
weaken as it reaches from the NE Gulf to the central Gulf by Wed.
A stronger cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast late
Tue night, and reach from the near the western Florida panhandle
to the west-central Gulf by late Wed. Fresh northeast winds are
expected behind this front. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally
fresh northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and
evening in the Bay of Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a diurnal trough develops and moves westward over the region.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected
elsewhere through much of this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the
SW Caribbean, where the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across
the region. High pressure located N of the area combined with the
Colombian low is promoting fresh to strong trade winds offshore
Colombia with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and
seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore of
northern Colombia each night and morning through the middle of
next week as low pressure prevails over the south-central
Caribbean. These winds will bring rough seas to the waters near
northwest Colombia. Otherwise, high pressure centered over the
western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds and
moderate seas over the rest of the basin through early next week.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N65W and continues
SW to near 26N73W. No significant convection is noted along the
frontal boundary. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
western Atlantic, with a 1020 mb high pressure located near 32N73W.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are blowing between the
Bahamas and Cuba while light to gentle winds are observed across
the remainder of the area W of 55W. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail in this
region. To the E, a surface trough is analyzed from 31N52W to
19N57W. An upper level trough also has its axis roughly along 55W.
The interactions between these features as well as convergent
surface winds is leading to a large area of scattered moderate
convection N of 20N between 44W and 53W. The pressure gradient
between this trough and high pressure of 1034 mb located NE of the
Azores is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N
of 24N and E of 50W. Rough seas are within these wind speeds.
Mainly moderate to fresh trades with moderate seas dominate the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, locally fresh northeast winds are
expected over the southern Bahamas and through the Windward
Passage through Sat morning as low pressure prevails in the south-
central Caribbean. Farther north, moderate to fresh southwest to
west winds will occur offshore of northern Florida by Sat morning,
with winds expanding farther east into the central Atlantic
through Sun morning, ahead of a cold front pushing off the east
coast of the United States. The cold front is forecast to move
southeastward along the Florida Peninsula and into the
northwestern waters this weekend into early next week, with
moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and building seas
expected in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, widespread
moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over much of the western
Atlantic by midweek as high pressure builds off the coast of the
eastern U.S.

$$
Adams

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560
AXNT20 KNHC 221022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Nov 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and
continues southwestward to 09N19W ,where it transitions to the
ITCZ to 09N30W to 07N40W to 09N50W and to 08N59W. Numerous
moderate convection is within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between
22W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of
the ITCZ between 33W-37W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ
between 41W-47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic
to across the eastern and central Gulf. Its related pressure
gradient is generally allowing for mostly light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds south of about 24N and east
of 94W. Seas are in the range of 3 to 4 ft, except for lower
seas of 2 to 3 ft in the southeastern Gulf and in the north-
central and NE Gulf zones.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift southeastward
through Sun as a mostly dry cold front moves across the northern
Gulf waters this afternoon and evening. Fresh to locally strong
southeast to south winds are expected to develop offshore of Texas
and northeast Mexico Sun night into Mon afternoon before becoming
mostly fresh south to southwest winds across the central and
western Gulf through early Tue as a weak cold front reaches the
Texas coast. It will be reinforced by a stronger cold front that
will move across the NW Gulf late Tue night into early Wed
morning, and reach from the near the western Florida panhandle to
the west- central Gulf by late Wed. Fresh northeast winds are
expected behind this front. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally
fresh northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and
evening in the Bay of Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a diurnal trough develops and moves westward over the region.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected
elsewhere through much of this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in the
southwestern Caribbean and in northern Colombia is resulting in
fresh to strong trade winds offshore Colombia as captured in an
overnight scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas are 6 to 8 ft
with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are over the
rest of the basin along with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for
slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft from 15N to 18N between 72W and
76W.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed over
the southwestern section of the sea, where the East Pacific
monsoon trough extends across the region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through
the middle of next week as low pressure prevails over the south-
central Caribbean. These winds will bring rough seas to the waters
near northwest Colombia. Otherwise, high pressure centered over
the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds
and moderate seas over the rest of the basin through early next
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is anaylzed from near 31N63W southwestward to
27N71W. No significant convection is seen in association
with this front. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds
are west of the front to near 65W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with these
winds. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the
western Atlantic, with a 1018 mb high situated north of the
area near 32N70W. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes
depict moderate to fresh northeast to east winds south of about
24N and west of 71W, including through the passages of the
Bahama Islands. These winds reach to along the coast of Cuba and
through the Straits of Florida. The overnight scatterometer
satellite data passes reveal light to gentle winds west of 47W.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft over these waters per latest altimeter
satellite data passes and several buoy observations.

Over the central Atlantic, a trough extends from near 31N51W to
24N53W and to 19N58W. An upper-level low dropping southward is
near 26N54W. This feature is providing upper support for the
trough. This is observed as scattered moderate convection
within an area bounded from 24N to 31N between 46W and 55W.
Similar activity is to the south from 21N to 24N between 44W and
the trough. The pressure gradient between this trough and strong
high pressure of 1034 mb located to the northeast of the Azores
is producing an area of mostly fresh northeast to east winds N of
26N and east of 37W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in northeast to east
swell are over this area. Fresh to strong southeast to south
winds are north of 29N between 42W and the trough. Seas are 8 to
10 ft with these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh
trades, with moderate seas are present over the rest of the
tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh northeast winds
over and near the southeastern Bahamas and through the Windward
Passage will diminish this afternoon. Farther north, moderate to
fresh southwest to west winds will develop offshore of northern
Florida this afternoon. These winds will expand farther east into
the central Atlantic through Sun morning ahead of a rather weak
and dry cold front that will move off the coast of the eastern
U.S. The cold front will move across the northwestern waters Sun
and Sun night, reach from near 31N69W to 28N73W and to Palm Beach,
Florida early Mon, from near 31N55W to 27N65W and as a stationary
front to Vero Beach, Florida by late Mon night. The cold front
portion will shift east of the area late Tue while the stationary
portion transitions to a warm front that will lifts north of 31N.
Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and building seas
expected in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, widespread
moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over much of the western
Atlantic by midweek as high pressure that shifts off the eastern
U.S. coast expands, and while at the same a stronger cold front
reaches the southern U.S. coast.

$$
Aguirre

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612
AXNT20 KNHC 221022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Nov 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and
continues southwestward to 09N19W ,where it transitions to the
ITCZ to 09N30W to 07N40W to 09N50W and to 08N59W. Numerous
moderate convection is within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between
22W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of
the ITCZ between 33W-37W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ
between 41W-47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic
to across the eastern and central Gulf. Its related pressure
gradient is generally allowing for mostly light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds south of about 24N and east
of 94W. Seas are in the range of 3 to 4 ft, except for lower
seas of 2 to 3 ft in the southeastern Gulf and in the north-
central and NE Gulf zones.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift southeastward
through Sun as a mostly dry cold front moves across the northern
Gulf waters this afternoon and evening. Fresh to locally strong
southeast to south winds are expected to develop offshore of Texas
and northeast Mexico Sun night into Mon afternoon before becoming
mostly fresh south to southwest winds across the central and
western Gulf through early Tue as a weak cold front reaches the
Texas coast. It will be reinforced by a stronger cold front that
will move across the NW Gulf late Tue night into early Wed
morning, and reach from the near the western Florida panhandle to
the west- central Gulf by late Wed. Fresh northeast winds are
expected behind this front. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally
fresh northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and
evening in the Bay of Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a diurnal trough develops and moves westward over the region.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected
elsewhere through much of this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in the
southwestern Caribbean and in northern Colombia is resulting in
fresh to strong trade winds offshore Colombia as captured in an
overnight scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas are 6 to 8 ft
with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are over the
rest of the basin along with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for
slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft from 15N to 18N between 72W and
76W.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed over
the southwestern section of the sea, where the East Pacific
monsoon trough extends across the region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through
the middle of next week as low pressure prevails over the south-
central Caribbean. These winds will bring rough seas to the waters
near northwest Colombia. Otherwise, high pressure centered over
the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds
and moderate seas over the rest of the basin through early next
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is anaylzed from near 31N63W southwestward to
27N71W. No significant convection is seen in association
with this front. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds
are west of the front to near 65W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with these
winds. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the
western Atlantic, with a 1018 mb high situated north of the
area near 32N70W. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes
depict moderate to fresh northeast to east winds south of about
24N and west of 71W, including through the passages of the
Bahama Islands. These winds reach to along the coast of Cuba and
through the Straits of Florida. The overnight scatterometer
satellite data passes reveal light to gentle winds west of 47W.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft over these waters per latest altimeter
satellite data passes and several buoy observations.

Over the central Atlantic, a trough extends from near 31N51W to
24N53W and to 19N58W. An upper-level low dropping southward is
near 26N54W. This feature is providing upper support for the
trough. This is observed as scattered moderate convection
within an area bounded from 24N to 31N between 46W and 55W.
Similar activity is to the south from 21N to 24N between 44W and
the trough. The pressure gradient between this trough and strong
high pressure of 1034 mb located to the northeast of the Azores
is producing an area of mostly fresh northeast to east winds N of
26N and east of 37W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in northeast to east
swell are over this area. Fresh to strong southeast to south
winds are north of 29N between 42W and the trough. Seas are 8 to
10 ft with these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh
trades, with moderate seas are present over the rest of the
tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh northeast winds
over and near the southeastern Bahamas and through the Windward
Passage will diminish this afternoon. Farther north, moderate to
fresh southwest to west winds will develop offshore of northern
Florida this afternoon. These winds will expand farther east into
the central Atlantic through Sun morning ahead of a rather weak
and dry cold front that will move off the coast of the eastern
U.S. The cold front will move across the northwestern waters Sun
and Sun night, reach from near 31N69W to 28N73W and to Palm Beach,
Florida early Mon, from near 31N55W to 27N65W and as a stationary
front to Vero Beach, Florida by late Mon night. The cold front
portion will shift east of the area late Tue while the stationary
portion transitions to a warm front that will lifts north of 31N.
Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and building seas
expected in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, widespread
moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over much of the western
Atlantic by midweek as high pressure that shifts off the eastern
U.S. coast expands, and while at the same a stronger cold front
reaches the southern U.S. coast.

$$
Aguirre

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321
AXNT20 KNHC 221639
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Nov 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and
continues southwestward to 09N18W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ to 09N30W to 07N40W to 09N50W and to 07N58W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N
between 10W and 20W, and from 04N to 12N between 20W and 31W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic
to across Florida into the Gulf region. Its related pressure
gradient is generally allowing for mostly light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds south of about 23N and east of 94W. Seas
are in general 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf. A
frontal boundary is near the coast of Texas generating scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the northern
Gulf late today, stall late Sun and Mon, then lift northward Tue.
Patchy fog over the northwest Gulf ahead of the front will
dissipate later today. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas
coast Sun night through Mon night between low pressure over
northeast Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. These winds
will diminish Tue ahead of another front moving across the southern
Plains. Looking ahead, this stronger front will move into the
northwest Gulf Wed, followed by fresh NE winds and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and the Colombian low is resulting in fresh to
strong trade winds over most of the central Caribbean as captured
by a recent scatterometer pass. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these
winds. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are noted
over the remainder of the basin.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed over
the southwestern section of the sea, where the East Pacific
monsoon trough extends across the region. Low-topped trade wind
showers are seen elsewhere, with some thunderstorm activity
offshore NE Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through
the middle of next week as low pressure prevails over the south-
central Caribbean. These winds will bring rough seas to the waters
near northwest Colombia. Elsewhere, high pressure centered over
the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds
and moderate seas over the rest of the basin through early next
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is anaylzed from near 31N59W southwestward to 26N67W.
No significant convection is seen in association with this front.
Mainly light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are on
either side of the front. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the
remainder of the western Atlantic, with a 1021 mb high pressure
situated near the NW Bahamas. Recent scatterometer satellite data
passes depict moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds
south of about 23N west of 71W, including through the passages of
the Bahama Islands. These winds reach to along the coast of Cuba
and through the Straits of Florida.

Over the central Atlantic, a trough extends from near 31N50W to a
1015 mb low pressure located near 27N53W to 19N55W. An upper-level
low dropping southward is near 26N53W. This feature is providing
upper support for the low/trough. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are E of the trough axis to about 44W. The
pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1034 mb situated
to the northeast of the Azores and lower pressures over NW Africa
is producing an area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds N
of 27N and east of 30W, including the N waters of the Canary
Islands. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in northeast to east swell are over
this area. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are north of
25N between 40 and 45W or between the the trough and the SW
periphery of the Azores high pressure. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with
these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades, with
moderate seas are present over the rest of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front southeast of Bermuda
will shift eastward today, then stall and dissipate through Sun.
High pressure over the northern Bahamas will dissipate through
Sun, ahead of another weak cold front that will move off the
northeast Florida coast early Sun. The front will reach from
Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern
portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W
to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to
lift northward. High pressure will build north of the front off
the Carolina coast, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
moderate seas across the region, with large NW swell following
the front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of an approaching front over
the southeast U.S.

$$
GR

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009
AXNT20 KNHC 222256
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Nov 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 15N and E of 44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 27N89W. The pressure
gradient in the area is allowing for mostly light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds south of about 23N and east of 94W. Seas
are in general 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf. A
frontal boundary is along the coast of Texas generating scattered
showers and thunderstorms N of 26N and W of 94W.

For the forecast, the front will shift southeastward across the
northern Gulf Sun, stall late Sun and Mon, then lift northward
Tue. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast Sun night
through Mon night between low pressure over northeast Mexico and
high pressure over the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue
ahead of another front moving across the southern Plains. Looking
ahead, this stronger front will move into the northwest Gulf Wed,
then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by
fresh NE winds and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and the Colombian low is resulting in fresh to
strong trade winds over most of the central Caribbean as captured
by a recent scatterometer pass. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these
winds. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted over
the remainder of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted over the western section of the sea, mainly between
80W-86W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse
offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through the
middle of next week as low pressure prevails over the south-
central Caribbean. These winds will bring rough seas to the
waters near northwest Colombia. Elsewhere, high pressure
centered over the western Atlantic will support moderate to
fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the rest of the basin
through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is anaylzed from near 31N58W southwestward to
26N66W. No significant convection is associated with this front.
Mainly light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are on
either side of the front. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the
remainder of the western Atlantic, with a 1020 mb high pressure
situated near the NW Bahamas. Recent scatterometer satellite data
passes depict moderate to fresh northeast to east winds south of
about 23N west of 71W, including through the passages of the
Bahama Islands. These winds reach to along the coast of Cuba and
through the Straits of Florida.

Over the central Atlantic, a trough extends from near 30N51W to
20N53W. An upper-level low is near 25N53W. This feature is
providing upper support for the low/trough. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are E of the trough axis to about 43W.
The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1031 mb
situated to the northeast of the Azores and lower pressures over
NW Africa is producing an area of fresh to strong northeast to
east winds N of 27N and east of 25W, including the N waters of
the Canary Islands. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in northeast to east swell
are over this area. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are
north of 25N between 40 and 45W or between the the trough and the
SW periphery of the Azores high pressure. Seas are 8 to 10 ft
with these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades, with
moderate seas are present over the rest of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front over the W-central
Atlantic will shift eastward then stall and dissipate through
Sun. High pressure off east-central Florida will dissipate
through Sun, ahead of another weak cold front that will move off
the northeast Florida coast early Sun. The front will reach from
Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern
portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W
to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to
lift northward. High pressure will build north of the front off
the Carolina coast, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
moderate seas across the region, with large NW swell following
the front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by
fresh NE winds and building seas.

$$
ERA

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723
AXNT20 KNHC 230603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Nov 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 14N and E of 44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal boundary slowing making its way into the NW Gulf from
SE TX is helping to induce scattered showers in the NW Gulf. A
1020 mb high pressure is centered near 27N86W, resulting in
moderate or weaker winds in anticyclonic flow across the vast
majority of the Gulf, except for the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche
where moderate to locally fresh NE winds persist. Slight seas
prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak stationary frontal boundary is along the
Texas coast will lift back north as a warm front on Sun. Expect
fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast Sun night through Mon
night supported by the gradient between low pressure over
northeast Mexico and high pressure that will be centered just
offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. These winds will diminish Tue
ahead of another front moving across the southern Plains. Looking
ahead, this stronger front will move into the northwest Gulf early
on Wed, then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu,
followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front across the NW
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough parallels the coasts of Honduras, Nicaragua,
and Costa Rica, leading to scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection in the Caribbean generally S of 20N and W of 79W.
Elsewhere, the combination between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and the Colombian low is resulting in fresh to strong
trade winds over most of the central Caribbean as captured by a
recent scatterometer pass. Seas are 6-8 ft with these winds.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted over the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning well
into next week due to the pressure gradient resulting from the
combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and
relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia and the south-
central Caribbean. Rough seas can be expected with these winds.
Elsewhere, the gradient will also support moderate to fresh trade
winds along with moderate seas over the remainder of the basin
through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms associated with a trough are over the western
Caribbean from 14N to 20N between 81W and 85W. Gusty winds are
possible with this activity as it may linger into Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N58W and
extends to near 26N66W. No significant convection is associated
with this front. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N46W to
17N52W. This trough is interacting with an upper level trough with
axis along 50W, leading to scattered moderate convection
occurring N of 22N between 44W and 49W. Farther east, convergent
surface winds are leading to the development of scattered showers
to the SW of the Canary Islands.

Outside of convection, the pressure gradient between a 1032 mb
high near 38N22W and lower pressures in the deep tropics support
fresh to strong E to NE winds N of 23N and E of 45W, where seas of
7-10 ft are also analyzed. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate
to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are prevalent E of the
Lesser Antilles and S of 20N, as well as along the northern coasts
of Cuba and Hispaniola. Elsewhere N of 20N and W of 50W, moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from
near 31N59W southwestward to 26N67W will weaken and dissipate by
early Sun evening. High pressure off east-central Florida will
dissipate through Sun, ahead of another weak cold front that will
move off the northeast Florida coast early Sun. The front will
reach from near Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon.
The eastern portion of the front will continue eastward and reach
from 30N55W to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W
starts to lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will
build north of the front off the Carolina coast, supporting
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas across
the region, with large NW swell following the front southeast of
Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W
by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off the northeast Florida
coast early Thu. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by late Thu night, followed by fresh northeast winds
and building seas.

$$
Adams

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759
AXNT20 KNHC 230603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Nov 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 14N and E of 44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal boundary slowing making its way into the NW Gulf from
SE TX is helping to induce scattered showers in the NW Gulf. A
1020 mb high pressure is centered near 27N86W, resulting in
moderate or weaker winds in anticyclonic flow across the vast
majority of the Gulf, except for the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche
where moderate to locally fresh NE winds persist. Slight seas
prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak stationary frontal boundary is along the
Texas coast will lift back north as a warm front on Sun. Expect
fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast Sun night through Mon
night supported by the gradient between low pressure over
northeast Mexico and high pressure that will be centered just
offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. These winds will diminish Tue
ahead of another front moving across the southern Plains. Looking
ahead, this stronger front will move into the northwest Gulf early
on Wed, then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu,
followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front across the NW
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough parallels the coasts of Honduras, Nicaragua,
and Costa Rica, leading to scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection in the Caribbean generally S of 20N and W of 79W.
Elsewhere, the combination between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and the Colombian low is resulting in fresh to strong
trade winds over most of the central Caribbean as captured by a
recent scatterometer pass. Seas are 6-8 ft with these winds.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted over the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning well
into next week due to the pressure gradient resulting from the
combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and
relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia and the south-
central Caribbean. Rough seas can be expected with these winds.
Elsewhere, the gradient will also support moderate to fresh trade
winds along with moderate seas over the remainder of the basin
through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms associated with a trough are over the western
Caribbean from 14N to 20N between 81W and 85W. Gusty winds are
possible with this activity as it may linger into Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N58W and
extends to near 26N66W. No significant convection is associated
with this front. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N46W to
17N52W. This trough is interacting with an upper level trough with
axis along 50W, leading to scattered moderate convection
occurring N of 22N between 44W and 49W. Farther east, convergent
surface winds are leading to the development of scattered showers
to the SW of the Canary Islands.

Outside of convection, the pressure gradient between a 1032 mb
high near 38N22W and lower pressures in the deep tropics support
fresh to strong E to NE winds N of 23N and E of 45W, where seas of
7-10 ft are also analyzed. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate
to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are prevalent E of the
Lesser Antilles and S of 20N, as well as along the northern coasts
of Cuba and Hispaniola. Elsewhere N of 20N and W of 50W, moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from
near 31N59W southwestward to 26N67W will weaken and dissipate by
early Sun evening. High pressure off east-central Florida will
dissipate through Sun, ahead of another weak cold front that will
move off the northeast Florida coast early Sun. The front will
reach from near Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon.
The eastern portion of the front will continue eastward and reach
from 30N55W to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W
starts to lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will
build north of the front off the Carolina coast, supporting
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas across
the region, with large NW swell following the front southeast of
Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W
by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off the northeast Florida
coast early Thu. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by late Thu night, followed by fresh northeast winds
and building seas.

$$
Adams

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856
AXNT20 KNHC 231040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Nov 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 09N30W to 08N37W to 08N50W and to 07N58W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 09N
between 18W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of
the ITCZ between 26W and 28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 27N89W. The pressure
gradient in the area is allowing for mostly light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds south of about 23N and east of 94W. Seas
are generally 2 to 4 ft, except for lower seas of 1 to 3 ft in
the NE Gulf. A stationary frontal boundary is analyzed from
southeastern Louisiana to 28N95W and to inland South Texas.
Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
near the front west 95W from 26N to 28N. Patches of fog, some
dense, are along and just offshore the Big Bend Florida coast.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northeastward
as a warm front later today as low pressure develops near the
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The eastern portion of this
boundary is a cold front that is approaching the western Florida
panhandle. It will move across the NE Gulf today into this
evening. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast tonight
through Mon night supported by the gradient between low pressure
over northeast Mexico and high pressure that will be centered just
offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. These winds will diminish Tue
ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast.
A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal
boundary early Wed while emerging out over the NW Gulf. The cold
front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu,
followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial frontal
boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern
Colombian low is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over
most of the central Caribbean as noted in overnight scatterometer
satellite data. In addition, a ship observation reported strong
northeast winds along the coast of Colombia at 08Z. Seas are 6 to
8 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are noted over the remainder of the basin. Satellite imagery shows
a rather persistent area of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms confined to the western section of the basin roughly
from 14N to 20N between 81W and 85W due to a trough in that part
of the sea. This is activity may be producing gusty winds at
times.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning well
into the upcoming week due to the pressure gradient resulting from
the combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and
relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia and the south-
central Caribbean. Rough seas can be expected with these winds.
Elsewhere, the gradient will also support moderate to fresh trade
winds along with modera
the front over the w W-central
Atlantic will shift eastward then stall and dissipate through
Sun. High pressure off east-central Florida will dissipate
through Sun, ahead of another weak cold front that will move off
the northeast Florida coast early Sun. The front will reach from
Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern
portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W
to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to
lift northward. High pressure will build north of the front off
the Carolina coast, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
moderate seas across the region, with large NW swell following
the front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by
fresh NE winds and building seas. te seas over the remainder of the basin through the period. The aforementioned shower and thunderstorm
activity in the western section of the basin may linger into late
tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is anaylzed from near 31N58W
southwestward to 26N67W. No significant convection is associated
with this front. Mainly light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are on either side of the front. Otherwise, high
pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, with a
1019 mb high pressure situated near the NW Bahamas. Overnight
scatterometer satellite data passes depict moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds south of about 23N west of 71W, including
through the passages of the Bahama Islands. These winds reach to
along the coast of Cuba and through the Straits of Florida. Fresh
northeast winds are in the Windward Passage as also seen
in the scatterometer satellite data passes.

Over the central Atlantic, a persistent trough extends from near
30N46W to 26N49W and to 18N52W. An upper-level low moving east-
southeastward is near 25N51W. This feature is providing upper
support for the low/trough. An area of moderate rain with embedded
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is present from
21N to 31W between 43W and 51W. The pressure gradient between
strong high pressure of 1030 mb centered to the northeast of the
Azores and relatively lower pressures over NW Africa is sustaining
mostly fresh northeast to east winds north of about 28N and east
of 24W, including waters to the north of the Canary Islands. Seas
of 8 to 10 ft in northeast to east swell are over this area.
Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are north of 22N
between 33W and the aforementioned trough and the southwest
periphery of the Azores high pressure. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with
these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades, with
moderate seas are present across the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure off east-
central Florida will shift southeastward through early Mon in
response to a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida
coast this morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda to
Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the
front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by
early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north
as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off the Mid-
Atlantic coast during the week, with its related gradient
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate
seas over the region, with large northwest swell following the
front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by
fresh northeast winds and building seas.

$$
Aguirre

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989
AXNT20 KNHC 231040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Nov 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 09N30W to 08N37W to 08N50W and to 07N58W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 09N
between 18W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of
the ITCZ between 26W and 28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 27N89W. The pressure
gradient in the area is allowing for mostly light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds south of about 23N and east of 94W. Seas
are generally 2 to 4 ft, except for lower seas of 1 to 3 ft in
the NE Gulf. A stationary frontal boundary is analyzed from
southeastern Louisiana to 28N95W and to inland South Texas.
Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
near the front west 95W from 26N to 28N. Patches of fog, some
dense, are along and just offshore the Big Bend Florida coast.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northeastward
as a warm front later today as low pressure develops near the
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The eastern portion of this
boundary is a cold front that is approaching the western Florida
panhandle. It will move across the NE Gulf today into this
evening. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast tonight
through Mon night supported by the gradient between low pressure
over northeast Mexico and high pressure that will be centered just
offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. These winds will diminish Tue
ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast.
A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal
boundary early Wed while emerging out over the NW Gulf. The cold
front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu,
followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial frontal
boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern
Colombian low is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over
most of the central Caribbean as noted in overnight scatterometer
satellite data. In addition, a ship observation reported strong
northeast winds along the coast of Colombia at 08Z. Seas are 6 to
8 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are noted over the remainder of the basin. Satellite imagery shows
a rather persistent area of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms confined to the western section of the basin roughly
from 14N to 20N between 81W and 85W due to a trough in that part
of the sea. This is activity may be producing gusty winds at
times.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning well
into the upcoming week due to the pressure gradient resulting from
the combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and
relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia and the south-
central Caribbean. Rough seas can be expected with these winds.
Elsewhere, the gradient will also support moderate to fresh trade
winds along with modera
the front over the w W-central
Atlantic will shift eastward then stall and dissipate through
Sun. High pressure off east-central Florida will dissipate
through Sun, ahead of another weak cold front that will move off
the northeast Florida coast early Sun. The front will reach from
Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern
portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W
to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to
lift northward. High pressure will build north of the front off
the Carolina coast, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
moderate seas across the region, with large NW swell following
the front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by
fresh NE winds and building seas. te seas over the remainder of the basin through the period. The aforementioned shower and thunderstorm
activity in the western section of the basin may linger into late
tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is anaylzed from near 31N58W
southwestward to 26N67W. No significant convection is associated
with this front. Mainly light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are on either side of the front. Otherwise, high
pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, with a
1019 mb high pressure situated near the NW Bahamas. Overnight
scatterometer satellite data passes depict moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds south of about 23N west of 71W, including
through the passages of the Bahama Islands. These winds reach to
along the coast of Cuba and through the Straits of Florida. Fresh
northeast winds are in the Windward Passage as also seen
in the scatterometer satellite data passes.

Over the central Atlantic, a persistent trough extends from near
30N46W to 26N49W and to 18N52W. An upper-level low moving east-
southeastward is near 25N51W. This feature is providing upper
support for the low/trough. An area of moderate rain with embedded
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is present from
21N to 31W between 43W and 51W. The pressure gradient between
strong high pressure of 1030 mb centered to the northeast of the
Azores and relatively lower pressures over NW Africa is sustaining
mostly fresh northeast to east winds north of about 28N and east
of 24W, including waters to the north of the Canary Islands. Seas
of 8 to 10 ft in northeast to east swell are over this area.
Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are north of 22N
between 33W and the aforementioned trough and the southwest
periphery of the Azores high pressure. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with
these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades, with
moderate seas are present across the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure off east-
central Florida will shift southeastward through early Mon in
response to a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida
coast this morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda to
Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the
front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by
early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north
as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off the Mid-
Atlantic coast during the week, with its related gradient
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate
seas over the region, with large northwest swell following the
front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by
fresh northeast winds and building seas.

$$
Aguirre

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353
AXNT20 KNHC 231046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Nov 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 09N30W to 08N37W to 08N50W and to 07N58W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 09N
between 18W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of
the ITCZ between 26W and 28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 27N89W. The pressure
gradient in the area is allowing for mostly light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds south of about 23N and east of 94W. Seas
are generally 2 to 4 ft, except for lower seas of 1 to 3 ft in
the NE Gulf. A stationary frontal boundary is analyzed from
southeastern Louisiana to 28N95W and to inland South Texas.
Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
near the front west 95W from 26N to 28N. Patches of fog, some
dense, are along and just offshore the Big Bend Florida coast.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northeastward
as a warm front later today as low pressure develops near the
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The eastern portion of this
boundary is a cold front that is approaching the western Florida
panhandle. It will move across the NE Gulf today into this
evening. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast tonight
through Mon night supported by the gradient between low pressure
over northeast Mexico and high pressure that will be centered just
offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. These winds will diminish Tue
ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast.
A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal
boundary early Wed while emerging out over the NW Gulf. The cold
front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu,
followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial frontal
boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern
Colombian low is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over
most of the central Caribbean as noted in overnight scatterometer
satellite data. In addition, a ship observation reported strong
northeast winds along the coast of Colombia at 08Z. Seas are 6 to
8 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are noted over the remainder of the basin. Satellite imagery shows
a rather persistent area of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms confined to the western section of the basin roughly
from 14N to 20N between 81W and 85W due to a trough in that part
of the sea. This is activity may be producing gusty winds at
times.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse
offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning well into the
upcoming week due to the pressure gradient resulting from the
combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and
relatively lower pressures over northern Colombia and the south-
central Caribbean. Rough seas can be expected with these winds.
Elsewhere, the gradient will also support moderate to fresh trade
winds along with moderate seas over the remainder of the basin
through the period. The shower and thunderstorm activity over the
western Caribbean may linger into late tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from near 31N58W
southwestward to 26N67W. No significant convection is associated
with this front. Mainly light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are on either side of the front. Otherwise, high
pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, with a
1019 mb high pressure situated near the NW Bahamas. Overnight
scatterometer satellite data passes depict moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds south of about 23N west of 71W, including
through the passages of the Bahama Islands. These winds reach to
along the coast of Cuba and through the Straits of Florida. Fresh
northeast winds are in the Windward Passage as also seen
in the scatterometer satellite data passes.

Over the central Atlantic, a persistent trough extends from near
30N46W to 26N49W and to 18N52W. An upper-level low moving east-
southeastward is near 25N51W. This feature is providing upper
support for the low/trough. An area of moderate rain with embedded
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is present from
21N to 31W between 43W and 51W. The pressure gradient between
strong high pressure of 1030 mb centered to the northeast of the
Azores and relatively lower pressures over NW Africa is sustaining
mostly fresh northeast to east winds north of about 28N and east
of 24W, including waters to the north of the Canary Islands. Seas
of 8 to 10 ft in northeast to east swell are over this area.
Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are north of 22N
between 33W and the aforementioned trough and the southwest
periphery of the Azores high pressure. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with
these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades, with
moderate seas are present across the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure off east-
central Florida will shift southeastward through early Mon in
response to a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida
coast this morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda to
Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the
front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by
early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north
as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off the Mid-
Atlantic coast during the week, with its related gradient
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate
seas over the region, with large northwest swell following the
front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by
fresh northeast winds and building seas.

$$
Aguirre

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084
AXNT20 KNHC 231648
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Nov 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 10N32W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 02N to 07N between 10W and 22W, and from 07N to 09N
between 45W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 27N89W while a frontal
boundary has reached the northern Gulf. The front extends from the
western Florida Panhandle to inland south Texas, where it becomes
a stationary front. Satellite pictures show scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near the front over Texas. Under this
weather pattern, gentle to moderate N to NE winds are noted behind
the front. Mostly light to gentle winds are S of front, except
for gentle to moderate northeast to east winds south of about 24N
and east of 94W. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, except for lower
seas of 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf. Patches of fog, some dense, are
along and just offshore the Florida Big Bend coast. A dense fog
advisory is in effect in this area until 4 pm this afternoon.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will lift
northeastward as a warm front later today as a low pressure
develops near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Expect fresh
southerly flow off the Texas coast tonight through Mon night
supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast
Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will
diminish Tue ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the
coast of Texas. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake
the frontal boundary early Wed while emerging out over the
northwest Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of
the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh to strong northeast
winds and building seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
accompany the initial frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern
Colombian is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over most
of the central Caribbean as noted in recent scatterometer data.
The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are offshore Colombia where
seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds and
moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the basin. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring from eastern
Honduras to western Panama. Gusty winds are possible with this
activity as it may linger into late tonight. Abundant tropical
moisture in place, combined with an upper-level low spinning over
Nicaragua supports this convection.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning well
into the upcoming week due to the pressure gradient resulting from
the combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and
relatively lower pressures over northern Colombia and the south-
central Caribbean. Rough seas can be expected with these winds.
Elsewhere, the gradient will also support moderate to fresh trade
winds along with moderate seas over the remainder of the basin
through the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the western Atlantic, with a 1020 mb high
pressure situated just N of the NW Bahamas. Recent scatterometer
data depict moderate northeast to east winds south of about 23N
west of 71W, including through the passages of the Bahama Islands.
These winds reach to along the coast of Cuba and through the
Straits of Florida. Fresh northeast winds are in the Windward
Passage as also seen in the scatterometer satellite data passes.

Over the central Atlantic, a persistent trough extends from near
31N47W to 20N52W. An upper-level trough is providing upper support
for this feature. An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms
remains associated with this trough. The pressure gradient between
strong high pressure of 1031 mb centered just E of the Azores and
relatively lower pressures over NW Africa is sustaining mostly
fresh northeast to east winds north of about 28N and east of 24W,
including waters to the north of the Canary Islands. Seas of 8 to
10 ft in NE swell are over this area based on altimeter data.
Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are north of 22N and E
of the aforementioned trough to about 40W. Moderate to rough seas
are with these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades,
with moderate seas are present across the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure off east-central
Florida will shift southeastward and dissipate through early Mon
in response to a cold front that will move off the northeast
Florida coast this morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda
to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of
the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W
by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back
north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off the
Mid-Atlantic coast during the week, with its related gradient
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate
seas over the region, with large northwest swell following the
front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by
fresh northeast winds and building seas.

$$
GR

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007
AXNT20 KNHC 231719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Nov 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 10N32W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 02N to 07N between 10W and 22W, and from 07N to 09N
between 45W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 27N89W while a frontal
boundary has reached the northern Gulf. The front extends from the
western Florida Panhandle to inland south Texas, where it becomes
a stationary front. Satellite pictures show scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near the front over Texas. Under this weather
pattern, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted behind the front.
Mostly light to gentle winds are S of front, except for gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds south of about 24N and east of 94W.
Similar wind seepds are W of 94W. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft,
except for lower seas of 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf. Patches of fog,
some dense, are along and just offshore the Florida Big Bend coast.
A dense fog advisory is in effect in this area until 4 pm this
afternoon.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will lift
northeastward as a warm front later today as a low pressure
develops near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Expect fresh
southerly flow off the Texas coast tonight through Mon night
supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast
Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will
diminish Tue ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the
coast of Texas. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake
the frontal boundary early Wed while emerging out over the
northwest Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of
the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh to strong northeast
winds and building seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
accompany the initial frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern
Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over most of
the central Caribbean as noted in recent scatterometer data. The
strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are offshore Colombia where seas are
in the 8 to 10 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are noted over the remainder of the basin. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are occurring from eastern Honduras to
western Panama. Gusty winds are possible with this activity as it
may linger into late tonight. Abundant tropical moisture in place,
combined with an upper-level low spinning over Nicaragua supports
this convection.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning well
into the upcoming week due to the pressure gradient resulting from
the combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and
relatively lower pressures over northern Colombia and the south-
central Caribbean. Rough seas can be expected with these winds.
Elsewhere, the gradient will also support moderate to fresh trade
winds along with moderate seas over the remainder of the basin
through the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the western Atlantic, with a 1020 mb high
pressure situated just N of the NW Bahamas. Recent scatterometer
data depict moderate northeast to east winds south of about 23N
west of 71W, including through the passages of the Bahama Islands.
These winds reach to along the coast of Cuba and through the
Straits of Florida. Fresh northeast winds are in the Windward
Passage as also seen in the scatterometer satellite data passes.

Over the central Atlantic, a persistent trough extends from near
31N47W to 20N52W. An upper-level trough is providing upper support
for this feature. An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms
remains associated with this trough. The pressure gradient between
strong high pressure of 1031 mb centered just E of the Azores and
relatively lower pressures over NW Africa is sustaining mostly
fresh northeast to east winds north of about 28N and east of 24W,
including waters to the north of the Canary Islands. Seas of 8 to
10 ft in NE swell are over this area based on altimeter data.
Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are north of 22N and E
of the aforementioned trough to about 40W. Moderate to rough seas
are with these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades,
with moderate seas are present across the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure off east-central
Florida will shift southeastward and dissipate through early Mon
in response to a cold front that will move off the northeast
Florida coast this morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda
to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of
the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W
by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back
north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off the
Mid-Atlantic coast during the week, with its related gradient
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate
seas over the region, with large northwest swell following the
front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by
fresh northeast winds and building seas.

$$
GR

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163
AXNT20 KNHC 232014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Nov 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 10N35W to the coast of northern South America at
07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 07N
between 11W and 26W, from 11.5N to 19N between Africa and 30W, and
from 07N to 10.5N between 43W and 58W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to offshore
SW Louisiana where it becomes stationary to the central Texas
coast. A weak ridge is noted S of the front with a 1020 mb high at
27N89W per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate
winds dominate the basin both N and S of the front. Seas are 2 to
locally 4 ft S of 24N and 1-3 ft elsewhere, locally to 4 ft off
the Texas coast N of the front. Scattered showers are noted near
and offshore the central and northern Texas coast with the front.

For the forecast, the weak stationary front will lift
northeastward as a warm front later today as low pressure develops
near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Expect fresh southerly
flow off the Texas coast tonight through Mon night supported by
the gradient between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high
pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of
a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A
stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary
early Wed while emerging out over the northwest Gulf. The cold
front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu,
followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas
through Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
initial frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern
Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over most of
the S-central Caribbean as noted in earlier scatterometer data.
The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are offshore Colombia where
seas are in the 8-10 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh winds
and moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the basin.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring near
the coast and offshore Central America from Belize southward.
Gusty winds and locally higher winds and seas are possible with
this activity and it may linger into late tonight. Abundant
tropical moisture in place, combined with an upper-level low
spinning over Nicaragua supports this convection.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds and
rough seas will pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and
morning through mid week between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressures over northern Colombia and
the south- central Caribbean. Elsewhere, the pattern will also
support moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas
over the remainder of the basin through the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1018 mb is N of the area over eastern North
Carolina with a cold front to the SE and just N of 31N reaching to
SE Georgia. S of the front, a broad ridge reaches from near 31N52W
to near the northern Bahamas. An elongated surface trough is over
the central Atlantic, reaching from N of 31N48W to 20N52W. A weak
pressure pattern is between the trough and the Greater Antilles to
Florida. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across this region,
locally moderate N of 29N and W of 70W closer to the front. Seas
are mainly 2-4 ft except locally 5 ft near the front and trough.

An upper-level trough is providing upper support for the feature.
An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms nearby. The
pressure gradient between high pressure N of 31N and E of the
surface trough is sustaining mostly fresh northeast to east winds
N of about 28N and E of 30W, including the waters near the Canary
Islands. Seas of 8-10 ft in NE swell are over this area based on
earlier altimeter data. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across
the remainder of the basin along with 4-7 ft seas in mainly N to
NE swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast tonight and reach from near Bermuda to
Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the
front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by
early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north
as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off Carolina
coast following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast
to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a
stronger front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast
Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds and
building seas through Fri night.

$$
Lewitsky

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555
AXNT20 KNHC 240547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Nov 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues
southwestward to 08N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 05N35W, and then runs west-northwestward to the coast
of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
E of 31W between 03N and 13N, and also near the coast of Guyana.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from near Apalachicola, FL across
the N Gulf to the TX coast near Port Aransas. Widely scattered
showers are seen near and in the vicinity of the front. Otherwise,
weak ridging continues to dominate the basin. Recent scatterometer
data indicates moderate to fresh SE to E winds across much of the
Gulf W of 90W, and gentle to moderate E to NE winds E of 90W.
Slight seas prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary remains stationary from the
Florida Panhandle to Lake Jackson, Texas. The front will lift
northeastward as a warm front tonight as low pressure develops
over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off the
Texas coast tonight through Mon night supported by the gradient
between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off
the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal
boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger
reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early
Wed, then move into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will then
sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh
to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial
frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak upper level trough and convergent surface winds in the NW
Caribbean is leading to scattered moderate convection near the
coasts of Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, as well as more isolated
convection near the SW coast of Jamaica. In the SW Caribbean, the
East Pacific monsoon trough is supporting more scattered moderate
convection generally S of 12N and W of 75W. Outside of convection,
the pressure gradient between high pressure over the SE US and the
Colombia low sustains fresh to strong NE winds off the NW coast of
Colombia, with rough seas also analyzed in the region. Moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas persist across the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will force
fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas offshore of
northern Colombia each night and morning through mid week. In the
remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will also support
moderate to fresh breezes along with moderate seas through the
period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An elongated surface trough persists over the central Atlantic
from 31N48W to near 20N50W. A broad upper level low is also
centered near 26N49W, and is aiding in the development of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 18N to 31N
between 42W and 51W. A pair of surface troughs are also analyzed
over the eastern Atlantic, one from 28N21W to 18N27W and the other
from 31N10W to near 17N22W. Another upper level low appears to be
centered near 24N25W, with these three features resulting in
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms E of 28W
between 13N and 29N.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a cold front enters the discussion
waters near 31N71W and extends to the FL coast near Cape
Canaveral. No notable convection is associated with this front.
Otherwise, a trade wind regime persists across much of the
Atlantic, with recent scatterometer data indicating moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas confirmed by altimeter data
prevailing across much of the Atlantic E of 50W, as well as S of
20N between the Lesser Antilles and 50W. Gentle to moderate NE
winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from
31N73W to Palm Bay, Florida and will reach from near Bermuda to
Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the
front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by
early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north
as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off Carolina
coast following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast
to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a
stronger front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast
Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds and
building seas through Fri night.

$$
Adams

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787
AXNT20 KNHC 240557 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Nov 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues
southwestward to 08N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 05N35W, and then runs west-northwestward to the coast
of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
E of 31W between 03N and 13N, and also near the coast of Guyana.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Satellite imagery shows a fog bank forming along the Gulf coast of
Florida from the Big Bend down to near Venice, FL as of 0550 UTC.
Mariners should be aware of the potential for reduced visibility
within 20-30 nm of the coast in these aforementioned areas. A
weak stationary front extends from near Apalachicola, FL across
the N Gulf to the TX coast near Port Aransas. Widely scattered
showers are seen near and in the vicinity of the front. Otherwise,
weak ridging continues to dominate the basin. Recent
scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh SE to E winds
across much of the Gulf W of 90W, and gentle to moderate E to NE
winds E of 90W. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary remains stationary from the
Florida Panhandle to Lake Jackson, Texas. The front will lift
northeastward as a warm front tonight as low pressure develops
over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off the
Texas coast tonight through Mon night supported by the gradient
between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off
the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal
boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger
reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early
Wed, then move into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will then
sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh
to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial
frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak upper level trough and convergent surface winds in the NW
Caribbean is leading to scattered moderate convection near the
coasts of Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, as well as more isolated
convection near the SW coast of Jamaica. In the SW Caribbean, the
East Pacific monsoon trough is supporting more scattered moderate
convection generally S of 12N and W of 75W. Outside of convection,
the pressure gradient between high pressure over the SE US and the
Colombia low sustains fresh to strong NE winds off the NW coast of
Colombia, with rough seas also analyzed in the region. Moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas persist across the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will force
fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas offshore of
northern Colombia each night and morning through mid week. In the
remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will also support
moderate to fresh breezes along with moderate seas through the
period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An elongated surface trough persists over the central Atlantic
from 31N48W to near 20N50W. A broad upper level low is also
centered near 26N49W, and is aiding in the development of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 18N to 31N
between 42W and 51W. A pair of surface troughs are also analyzed
over the eastern Atlantic, one from 28N21W to 18N27W and the other
from 31N10W to near 17N22W. Another upper level low appears to be
centered near 24N25W, with these three features resulting in
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms E of 28W
between 13N and 29N.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a cold front enters the discussion
waters near 31N71W and extends to the FL coast near Cape
Canaveral. No notable convection is associated with this front.
Otherwise, a trade wind regime persists across much of the
Atlantic, with recent scatterometer data indicating moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas confirmed by altimeter data
prevailing across much of the Atlantic E of 50W, as well as S of
20N between the Lesser Antilles and 50W. Gentle to moderate NE
winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from
31N73W to Palm Bay, Florida and will reach from near Bermuda to
Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the
front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by
early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north
as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off Carolina
coast following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast
to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a
stronger front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast
Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds and
building seas through Fri night.

$$
Adams

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603
AXNT20 KNHC 241027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Nov 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 08N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N16W to 07N35W and to 07N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring E of 31W between 03N and 13N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to SE
Texas. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. A
tightening pressure gradient supports moderate to fresh southerly
winds off southern Texas and Tamaulipas, along with seas of 4-6
ft. Elsewhere south of 25N, gentle to moderate easterly winds and
seas of 3-5 ft prevail, while lighter winds and slight seas are
noted in the northern and eastern Gulf waters. Visibility has
diminished to 1 nm in the nearshore waters of Florida, mainly from
Panama City to Port Charlotte. Mariners should use caution.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front is expected to become
a warm front and lift northeastward this morning as low pressure
develops over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off
the Texas coast through tonight supported by the gradient between
low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the
Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal
boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger
reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early
Wed, then move into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will then
sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh
to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial
frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft continues to support scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras and off Costa Rica,
Panama and NW Colombia. A scatterometer satellite pass from a few
hours ago showed fresh to strong NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft, as confirmed by a
recent altimeter pass. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a subtropical
ridge north of the islands and a lower pressures in NW Colombia
will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas
in the central Caribbean through late this week. Seas will peak
around 12 ft. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern
will support moderate to fresh breezes along with moderate seas
through the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean on Fri, sustaining strong winds and rough seas behind
the boundary.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near Bermuda to the Space Coast of
Florida and a few showers are seen near the boundary. The
remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a
weak pressure gradient. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are found in these waters. Farther east, a surface trough is
observed along 48W and north of 20N, and scattered showers are
present north of 20N and between 40W and 50W. A couple of surface
troughs are evident in the eastern Atlantic, producing scattered
showers.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb high
pressure system south of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 20N and
between 30W and 48W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough
seas are found north of 28N and east of 30W. Farthest east, fresh
to strong NE-E winds and rough seas are found from 10N to 19N and
east of 25W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are present south of 20N and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate
or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the
aforementioned front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W
to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to
lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward
off Carolina coast following the front, supporting moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed,
ahead of a stronger front expected to move off the northeast
Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds
and building seas through Fri night.

$$
Delgado

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860
AXNT20 KNHC 241639
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Nov 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1638 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11.5N16W and
continues southwestward to 10N18W. The ITCZ extends from 10N18W
to 10N34W and to 10N53W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring E of 32.5W between 05N and 15N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to near
28N89W, then it transition to a warm front to near Galveston, TX.
No deep convection is noted near this boundary. A tightening
pressure gradient supports fresh to locally strong southerly
winds off southern Texas and Tamaulipas, along with seas of 4-6
ft. Elsewhere south of 25N, gentle to moderate easterly winds and
seas of 2-4 ft prevail, while lighter winds and slight seas are
noted in the northern and eastern Gulf waters.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida
panhandle to 28N89W. The front is expected to become a warm front
and lift northeastward this morning as low pressure develops over
the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas
coast through tonight supported by the gradient between low
pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the
Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal
boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger
reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early
Wed, then move into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will then
sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh
to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial
frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft continues to support scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras and off Costa Rica,
Panama and NW Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail in the
south- central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7-9 ft, as
confirmed by a recent altimeter pass. Moderate to locally fresh
NE to E winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of
the islands and a lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain
fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central
Caribbean through late this week. Seas will peak around 12 ft. In
the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will support
moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas through the
period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on
Fri, sustaining strong winds and rough seas behind the boundary.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from south of Bermuda to near 27N78W,
then it transition to a stationary front that extends to near Coco
Beach, Florida and a few showers are seen near the boundary. The
remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a
weak pressure gradient. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are found in these waters. Farther east, a weak 1016 mb low
pressure is near 28N48W. A surface trough extends from this low to
21N47W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 20N and
between 43W and 46W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb high
pressure system south of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 15N and
between 30W and 46W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough
seas are found north of 27N and east of 30W. Farthest east, fresh
to strong NE-E winds and rough seas are found from 11N to 19N and
east of 26W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the
aforementioned front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W
to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to
lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward
off Carolina coast following the front, supporting moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed,
ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast
Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds
and building seas through Fri night.

$$
KRV

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844
AXNT20 KNHC 241939
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Nov 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12.5N16.5W and
continues southwestward to 11N18.5W. The ITCZ extends from
11N18.5W to 09N127W to 10.5N35W and to 09N48.5W to 10.5N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring east of 30W from 09N
and 28N. Similar convection is noted from 07N to 12.5N between 49W
and 61W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from just north of Tampa Bay,
Florida to near the SE tip of Louisiana. No significant convection
is noted over the basin on conventional visible and infrared
satellite imagery. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds are noted north of
23N and west of 95W due to a locally tight pressure gradient in
the area. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds dominate the remainder of
the basin, except light to gentle in the NE Gulf. Seas are 4-7 ft
near the moderate to fresh winds, 1-2 ft in the NE Gulf, and 2-4
ft across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, a stationary front extending across the
northern Gulf will lift northward by tonight as low pressure
develops over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off
the Texas coast through tonight supported by the gradient between
low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the
Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal
boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger
reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early
Wed, then move into the NW Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to
the southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri, followed by
fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the
weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft continues to support widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras and off Costa
Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail
in the central Caribbean, strongest offshore northern Colombia.
Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, as confirmed by an earlier
altimeter pass. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and mainly
moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of
the islands and lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain fresh
to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean
through late this week. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt, and
highest seas of 9 to 11 ft are expected offshore Colombia mainly
at night. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will
support moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas through
the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and rough seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near Bermuda to the near Cape
Canaveral, Florida. No significant convection is noted near the
front. Seas of 4-6 ft in mainly NW swell are noted north of the
front. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the
waters north of 19N and west of 50W, along with 3-4 ft seas.
Farther east, a weak 1016 mb low pressure is near 29.5N48W. A
surface trough extends from this low to 21N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is present north of 21N between 43W and the trough
axis. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds are found north of 26N and east
of the trough to around 40W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb high
pressure system near the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 15N and
between 30W and 46W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough
seas are found north of 26N between 20W and 35W. Farthest southeast,
fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas are found from 10N to
20N and east of 28W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the cold
front will continue eastward and reach from 31N52W to 27N63W by
Tue morning, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift north.
High pressure located off the Carolinas will shift eastward
following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger
cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed
night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida
by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building
seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened pressure
gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing
winds and building seas across much of the forecast area during
the upcoming weekend.

$$
Lewitsky

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707
AXNT20 KNHC 241939
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Nov 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12.5N16.5W and
continues southwestward to 11N18.5W. The ITCZ extends from
11N18.5W to 09N127W to 10.5N35W and to 09N48.5W to 10.5N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring east of 30W from 09N
and 28N. Similar convection is noted from 07N to 12.5N between 49W
and 61W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from just north of Tampa Bay,
Florida to near the SE tip of Louisiana. No significant convection
is noted over the basin on conventional visible and infrared
satellite imagery. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds are noted north of
23N and west of 95W due to a locally tight pressure gradient in
the area. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds dominate the remainder of
the basin, except light to gentle in the NE Gulf. Seas are 4-7 ft
near the moderate to fresh winds, 1-2 ft in the NE Gulf, and 2-4
ft across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, a stationary front extending across the
northern Gulf will lift northward by tonight as low pressure
develops over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off
the Texas coast through tonight supported by the gradient between
low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the
Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal
boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger
reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early
Wed, then move into the NW Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to
the southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri, followed by
fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the
weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft continues to support widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras and off Costa
Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail
in the central Caribbean, strongest offshore northern Colombia.
Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, as confirmed by an earlier
altimeter pass. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and mainly
moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of
the islands and lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain fresh
to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean
through late this week. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt, and
highest seas of 9 to 11 ft are expected offshore Colombia mainly
at night. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will
support moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas through
the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and rough seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near Bermuda to the near Cape
Canaveral, Florida. No significant convection is noted near the
front. Seas of 4-6 ft in mainly NW swell are noted north of the
front. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the
waters north of 19N and west of 50W, along with 3-4 ft seas.
Farther east, a weak 1016 mb low pressure is near 29.5N48W. A
surface trough extends from this low to 21N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is present north of 21N between 43W and the trough
axis. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds are found north of 26N and east
of the trough to around 40W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb high
pressure system near the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 15N and
between 30W and 46W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough
seas are found north of 26N between 20W and 35W. Farthest southeast,
fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas are found from 10N to
20N and east of 28W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the cold
front will continue eastward and reach from 31N52W to 27N63W by
Tue morning, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift north.
High pressure located off the Carolinas will shift eastward
following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger
cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed
night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida
by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building
seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened pressure
gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing
winds and building seas across much of the forecast area during
the upcoming weekend.

$$
Lewitsky

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975
AXNT20 KNHC 250543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Nov 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11.5N16W and
continues southwestward to 11N18.5W. The ITCZ extends from
11N18.5W to 09N58W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
east of 30W from 05N to 20N, with fresh to strong NE winds
occurring in the strongest convection. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are also occurring W of 50W between 15N and
the coast of South America.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from the Big Bend of Florida to
near 29N86W, where it transitions to a warm front that extends
into SE Louisiana. No significant convection is seen with these
fronts.

For the forecast, a cold front is approaching the NW Gulf waters,
along with strong showers and thunderstorms. A warm front is
lifting northward over the NE Gulf ahead of the aforementioned
cold front. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast
tonight supported by the gradient between low pressure over
northeast Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds
will diminish Tue ahead of the aforementioned cold front. A
stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary
early Wed, then move into the NW Gulf. The cold front will then
sweep to the southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri,
followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into
the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany
the frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft continues to support widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras, as well as
off Costa Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia. This latter area of
convection is likely enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough
which also extends across the SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE
winds prevail in the central Caribbean, strongest offshore
northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, as confirmed
by an earlier altimeter pass. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds and mainly moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of
the islands and lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain fresh
to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean
through late this week. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt, and
highest seas of 10 to 13 ft are expected offshore Colombia mainly
at night. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will
support moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas through
the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and rough seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near 31N60W to near 27N77W, where
it becomes a stationary front that extends to near Cape Canaveral,
FL. No significant convection is noted near the front. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft follow these fronts. Farther
east, a weak 1016 mb low pressure is near 30.5N48W. A surface
trough extends from this low to 21N48W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present north of 21N between 43W and
49W. In the east Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from
29N21W to 26N25W to 21N26W to 16N30W. More scattered showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing between the trough axis and the west
coast of Africa. Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh to
locally strong winds N of the trough, driven by the pressure
gradient between the trough and high pressure to the north.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic away from the aforementioned
features, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail
across the vast majority of the basin. The exceptions are two
regions, one north of 20N between 35W and 65W, and the other in
the vicinity of the Canary Islands, where gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 2-5 ft prevail due to weaker pressure gradients
in these areas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from
31N60W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. The eastern portion of the
front will continue eastward and reach from 31N52W to 27N63W by
Tue morning, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift north.
High pressure located off the Carolinas will shift eastward
following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger
cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed
night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida
by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building
seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened pressure
gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing
winds and building seas across much of the forecast area during
the upcoming weekend.

$$
Adams

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290
AXNT20 KNHC 251027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Nov 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues to 11N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 11N19W to 09N40W and to 09N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 05N to 15N and east of 30W. Similar
convection is observed from 07N to 14N and between 53W and 63W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front is nearing the Texas coast and the pressure
gradient between this feature and high pressure off New England
support moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds and moderate seas
over much of the Gulf waters. No significant convection is noted
in the basin.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh southerly winds will
decrease to gentle to moderate later today as high pressure off
New England departs eastward. A stronger reinforcing cold front
will overtake the aforementioned weak front early Wed, then move
into the NW Gulf waters. The cold front will then sweep to the
southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri, followed by fresh to
strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal
boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure off New England continues to force fresh to strong
easterly winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. The
strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered
showers in the Gulf of Honduras and SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the islands and lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain
fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central
Caribbean through late this week. The strongest winds of 25 to 30
kt, and highest seas peaking near 12 ft are expected offshore
Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin, the
weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along with
moderate seas through the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will
enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and rough
seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near 31N58W to near 28N72W, where
it becomes a stationary front that extends to near Cape Canaveral,
FL. No significant convection is noted near the front. Moderate
to fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft follow these fronts. Farther
east, a weak 1014 mb low pressure is near 31N47W. A surface
trough extends from this low to 19N48W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present north of 21N between 43W and
49W. In the east Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from
29N21W to 26N25W to 21N26W to 16N30W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are ongoing between the trough axis and
the west coast of Africa. Scatterometer satellite data from a few
hours ago indicates fresh to locally strong winds N of the
trough, driven by the pressure gradient between the trough and
high pressure to the north.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic away from the aforementioned
features, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail
across the vast majority of the basin. The exceptions are two
regions, one north of 20N between 35W and 65W, and the other in
the vicinity of the Canary Islands, where gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 2-5 ft prevail due to weaker pressure gradients
in these areas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the
aforementioned front will continue eastward and reach from 31N44W
to 27N63W by tonight, while the portion west of 70W starts to
lift north. High pressure located off New England will shift
eastward following the front, supporting moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of
a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida
coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and
building seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened
pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring
increasing winds and building seas across much of the forecast
area during the upcoming weekend.

$$
Delgado

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045
AXNT20 KNHC 251641
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Nov 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1641 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues
to 08N16W. The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 07N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 05N to 12N between 16W and
27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front is nearing the Texas coast and the
pressure gradient between this feature and high pressure off New
England support gentle to moderate SE-S winds and moderate seas
over much of the Gulf waters. No significant convection is noted
in the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will drift
into the NW Gulf later today. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
will decrease to gentle to moderate later today as high pressure
off New England departs eastward. A stronger reinforcing cold
front will overtake the aforementioned weak front early Wed as it
moves into the NW Gulf waters. The cold front will then sweep to
the southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri, followed by
fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the
weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh return flow under strong high
pressure is forecast Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area continues to force fresh to
strong easterly winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. The
strongest winds of locally near-gale force, according to the
latest ASCAT, and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered
showers the souther Caribbean.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over NW Colombia
will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas
in the central Caribbean through early Fri. The strongest winds of
25 to 30 kt, and highest seas peaking near 12 ft are expected
offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin,
the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along
with moderate seas through early Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and
rough seas through Fri night. The front may stall and wash out
near the NW Caribbean by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near 31N54W to near 28N72W, where
it becomes a stationary front that extends to near Cape Canaveral,
FL. No significant convection is noted near the front. Moderate
to locally fresh N to NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft follow these
fronts. Farther east, a weak 1015 mb low pressure north of the
area is near 32N45W. A surface trough extends from this low to
22N48W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 22N
between 42W and 48W. In the east Atlantic, a surface trough is
analyzed from 29N21W to 27N23W to 20N27W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are ongoing between the trough axis and the
west coast of Africa. The latest scatterometer satellite data
indicates moderate NW winds south of the low, driven by the
pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure to the
north.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic away from the aforementioned
features, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail
across the vast majority of the basin. The exceptions are two
regions, one north of 20N between 44W and 60W, and the other in
the vicinity of the Canary Islands, where gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 2-5 ft prevail due to weaker pressure gradients
in these areas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from
31N54W to 28N71W, with the tail end as a dissipating stationary
front to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. The eastern portion of the
front will continue eastward and reach from 28N55W to 27N65W by
tonight, while the western portion dissipates. High pressure
located off New England will shift eastward following the front,
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate
seas over the region, locally rough near 31N55W. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a
stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida
coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and
building seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened
pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring
increasing winds and building seas across much of the forecast
area during the upcoming weekend.


$$
KRV

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145
AXNT20 KNHC 251641
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Nov 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1641 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues
to 08N16W. The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 07N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 05N to 12N between 16W and
27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front is nearing the Texas coast and the
pressure gradient between this feature and high pressure off New
England support gentle to moderate SE-S winds and moderate seas
over much of the Gulf waters. No significant convection is noted
in the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will drift
into the NW Gulf later today. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
will decrease to gentle to moderate later today as high pressure
off New England departs eastward. A stronger reinforcing cold
front will overtake the aforementioned weak front early Wed as it
moves into the NW Gulf waters. The cold front will then sweep to
the southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri, followed by
fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the
weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh return flow under strong high
pressure is forecast Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area continues to force fresh to
strong easterly winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. The
strongest winds of locally near-gale force, according to the
latest ASCAT, and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered
showers the souther Caribbean.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over NW Colombia
will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas
in the central Caribbean through early Fri. The strongest winds of
25 to 30 kt, and highest seas peaking near 12 ft are expected
offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin,
the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along
with moderate seas through early Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and
rough seas through Fri night. The front may stall and wash out
near the NW Caribbean by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near 31N54W to near 28N72W, where
it becomes a stationary front that extends to near Cape Canaveral,
FL. No significant convection is noted near the front. Moderate
to locally fresh N to NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft follow these
fronts. Farther east, a weak 1015 mb low pressure north of the
area is near 32N45W. A surface trough extends from this low to
22N48W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 22N
between 42W and 48W. In the east Atlantic, a surface trough is
analyzed from 29N21W to 27N23W to 20N27W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are ongoing between the trough axis and the
west coast of Africa. The latest scatterometer satellite data
indicates moderate NW winds south of the low, driven by the
pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure to the
north.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic away from the aforementioned
features, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail
across the vast majority of the basin. The exceptions are two
regions, one north of 20N between 44W and 60W, and the other in
the vicinity of the Canary Islands, where gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 2-5 ft prevail due to weaker pressure gradients
in these areas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from
31N54W to 28N71W, with the tail end as a dissipating stationary
front to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. The eastern portion of the
front will continue eastward and reach from 28N55W to 27N65W by
tonight, while the western portion dissipates. High pressure
located off New England will shift eastward following the front,
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate
seas over the region, locally rough near 31N55W. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a
stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida
coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and
building seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened
pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring
increasing winds and building seas across much of the forecast
area during the upcoming weekend.


$$
KRV

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800
AXNT20 KNHC 252033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues
to 08N15W. The ITCZ extends from 08N15W to 07N20W to 08N35W to
07N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 09N
between 18W and 23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front extends from south-central Louisiana to South
Texas near the mouth of the Rio Grande. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active ahead of this front. A few additional
showers and thunderstorms are active over the southwest Gulf along
95W from 21N to 25N, ahead of a trough over the Bay of Campeche
and associated with the subtropical jet active near the area.
Farther east, 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 27N86W. This
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 4
ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, a stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake
the aforementioned weak front early Wed while reaching from the
western Florida Panhandle to 28N90W to NE Mexico. The cold front
will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by Thu night into
Fri, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas
into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
accompany the fronts. Moderate to fresh return flow under strong
high pressure is forecast by Sat afternoon. Another front may move
into the NW waters early Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area continues to force fresh to
strong easterly winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated strong to near-gale
force winds off the coast of Colombia, with mostly moderate to
fresh trade winds elsewhere across the eastern and central
Caribbean. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicated 8 to 11
ft seas near the strong to gale-force winds. Combined seas are 5
to 7 ft elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle
to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft are observed over the northwest
Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the
far southwest Caribbean from Panama to off Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over NW Colombia
will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas
in the central Caribbean through early Fri. The strongest winds of
25 to 30 kt, and highest seas peaking near 12 ft are expected
offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin,
the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along
with moderate seas through early Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front
will slowly enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong
winds and rough seas through Fri night. The front may stall and
wash out over the NW Caribbean by Sat with conditions gradually
improving for the remainder of the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near 31N52W to 28N70W, where it
becomes a stationary front that extends to 28N78W. Moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are active north of the
front east of 65W. Moderate to fresh E winds and 5 to 6 ft seas
are noted south of 25N between 65W and 75W, with moderate E to SE
winds and 4 to 5 ft seas elsewhere east of 55W. Farther east,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough from
22N to 30N between 43W and 47W. Another trough is southwest of the
Canary Islands from 20N28W to 27N23W. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are also active on the north of the trough from 26N
to 28N between 20W and 25W. Fresh E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas noted
north of the trough from 27N to 30N between 23W and 30W. Gentle to
moderate NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere east of
55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the front
will continue eastward and reach from 26N55W to 25N70W by early
Wed, while the western portion dissipates. High pressure located
off New England will shift eastward following the front,
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate
seas over the region, locally rough near 55W. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger
cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed
night. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and
building seas through Fri night. A tightened pressure gradient in
the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing winds and
building seas across much of the forecast area Sat, gradually
diminishing from west to east Sun.

$$
Christensen

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900
AXNT20 KNHC 260540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough stays mostly across central Africa. An ITCZ
extends westward from near the coastal border of Guinea-Bissau and
Sierra Leone to 08N25W to 06N43W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is present near the ITCZ from 05N to 10N between the
coast of Sierra Leone/Liberia and 28W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and western Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front curves southwestward from near New Orleans,
Louisiana to south of Houston near 28N94W, then continues as a
stationary front to near the mouth of the Rio Grande, Texas.
Widely scattered showers are seen up to 50 nm along either side
of this boundary. A surface trough is triggering scattered
moderate convection at the west-central Gulf. Otherwise, a broad
surface ridge continues to dominate the rest of the Gulf. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are present off the
Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate E to SSE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere
in the Gulf.

For the forecast, a stronger cold front will reach the
northwestern Gulf early on Wed and steadily sweep across the
Gulf. The cold front should extend from the western Florida
peninsula to near Tampico tomorrow night, from the Florida Straits
to near Veracruz Thu night, and then exit the Gulf by Fri
morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of
the cold front with conditions improving by Fri night. Fresh to
strong return flow should set up in the northwestern Gulf Fri
night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front may emerge from
the Texas coast Sat night and progress southeastward across the
Gulf on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are creating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras, and near the ABC Islands.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE
to E winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are present at the south-central
basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
seen across the north-central and the eastern portion of the
western basin, including the Mona Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE
to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over NW Colombia
will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas
in the central Caribbean through early Fri. The strongest winds of
25 to 30 kt, and highest seas peaking near 12 ft are expected
offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin,
the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along
with moderate seas through early Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front
will slowly enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong
winds and rough seas through Fri night. The front may stall and
wash out over the NW Caribbean by Sat with conditions gradually
improving for the remainder of the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front curves southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N46W to 27N63W, then continues westward as a
stationary front to 28N71W. Widely scattered showers and seen near
and up to 50 nm south of this features. Farther east, a surface
trough is coupling with an upper-level trough to trigger scattered
moderate convection north of 22N between 41W and 45W. Convergent
trade winds are generating widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the southern Windward Islands. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the very beginning for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are evident up
to 80 nm along either side of the cold/stationary front, and also
at the Bahama Bank near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Outside
these two areas, gentle to moderate NE to SSE winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft are noted north of 20N between 45W and the Florida/southern
Georgia coast. To the east, Gentle ENE to E winds and seas at 5 to
7 ft in moderate NE swell exist north of 20N between 35W and 45W.
For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas of 5
to 6 ft are present. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in
mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the
aforementioned cold/stationary front east of 65W will diminish
on Wed, as the front dissipates. The Bermuda High to the north of
the front is helping to sustain fresh to strong ENE winds in the
approach to the Windward Passage tonight and Wed night before
diminishing on Thu. On Wed evening, a cold front will emerge off the northeastern Florida coast, bringing with it fresh to strong NE
winds behind the front. This cold front should extend from near
Bermuda to the Florida Straits Thu night, from 31N62W to the
central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate by Sat night. A
tightened pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast
to bring increasing winds across the western Atlantic Sat, before
gradually diminishing from west to east Sun.

$$

Chan

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050
AXNT20 KNHC 260540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough stays mostly across central Africa. An ITCZ
extends westward from near the coastal border of Guinea-Bissau and
Sierra Leone to 08N25W to 06N43W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is present near the ITCZ from 05N to 10N between the
coast of Sierra Leone/Liberia and 28W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and western Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front curves southwestward from near New Orleans,
Louisiana to south of Houston near 28N94W, then continues as a
stationary front to near the mouth of the Rio Grande, Texas.
Widely scattered showers are seen up to 50 nm along either side
of this boundary. A surface trough is triggering scattered
moderate convection at the west-central Gulf. Otherwise, a broad
surface ridge continues to dominate the rest of the Gulf. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are present off the
Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate E to SSE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere
in the Gulf.

For the forecast, a stronger cold front will reach the
northwestern Gulf early on Wed and steadily sweep across the
Gulf. The cold front should extend from the western Florida
peninsula to near Tampico tomorrow night, from the Florida Straits
to near Veracruz Thu night, and then exit the Gulf by Fri
morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of
the cold front with conditions improving by Fri night. Fresh to
strong return flow should set up in the northwestern Gulf Fri
night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front may emerge from
the Texas coast Sat night and progress southeastward across the
Gulf on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are creating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras, and near the ABC Islands.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE
to E winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are present at the south-central
basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
seen across the north-central and the eastern portion of the
western basin, including the Mona Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE
to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over NW Colombia
will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas
in the central Caribbean through early Fri. The strongest winds of
25 to 30 kt, and highest seas peaking near 12 ft are expected
offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin,
the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along
with moderate seas through early Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front
will slowly enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong
winds and rough seas through Fri night. The front may stall and
wash out over the NW Caribbean by Sat with conditions gradually
improving for the remainder of the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front curves southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N46W to 27N63W, then continues westward as a
stationary front to 28N71W. Widely scattered showers and seen near
and up to 50 nm south of this features. Farther east, a surface
trough is coupling with an upper-level trough to trigger scattered
moderate convection north of 22N between 41W and 45W. Convergent
trade winds are generating widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the southern Windward Islands. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the very beginning for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are evident up
to 80 nm along either side of the cold/stationary front, and also
at the Bahama Bank near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Outside
these two areas, gentle to moderate NE to SSE winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft are noted north of 20N between 45W and the Florida/southern
Georgia coast. To the east, Gentle ENE to E winds and seas at 5 to
7 ft in moderate NE swell exist north of 20N between 35W and 45W.
For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas of 5
to 6 ft are present. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in
mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the
aforementioned cold/stationary front east of 65W will diminish
on Wed, as the front dissipates. The Bermuda High to the north of
the front is helping to sustain fresh to strong ENE winds in the
approach to the Windward Passage tonight and Wed night before
diminishing on Thu. On Wed evening, a cold front will emerge off the northeastern Florida coast, bringing with it fresh to strong NE
winds behind the front. This cold front should extend from near
Bermuda to the Florida Straits Thu night, from 31N62W to the
central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate by Sat night. A
tightened pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast
to bring increasing winds across the western Atlantic Sat, before
gradually diminishing from west to east Sun.

$$

Chan

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299
AXNT20 KNHC 260943
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough stays mostly across North Africa. An ITCZ
extends westward from near the coast of Sierra Leone to 01N47W.
Isolated moderate convection is present near the ITCZ from 05N-08N
east of 30W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and western Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 0900 UTC, a weak cold front extends from the Florida
panhandle to 29N92W, where it transitions to a stationary front
to S Texas. Prefrontal troughs are noted from 23N96W to 27N95W and
27N92W to 30N86W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
north of 23N and west of 90W. Winds across the Gulf are moderate
or weaker with seas 2-4 ft. A surface trough in the SW Gulf is
associated with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
south of 20N between 92W-96W.

For the forecast, a cold front will reach the NW Gulf later this
morning and steadily sweep across the Gulf. The cold front should
extend from near Tampa to Tampico tonight, from the Florida
Straits to near Veracruz Thu night, and then exit the Gulf by Fri
morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of
the cold front with conditions improving by Fri night. Fresh to
strong return flow should set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat.
Looking ahead, the next cold front may emerge from the Texas
coast Sat night and progress southeastward across the W Gulf on
Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower
pressures over NW Colombia/SW Caribbean Sea is forcing fresh to
strong trades with locally near gale and seas of 8-11 ft across
most of the Caribbean. Trades in the E and NW Caribbean are
moderate to fresh with seas 4-7 ft. The eastern end of the East
Pacific monsoon trough is causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and
western Panama.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will sustain fresh
to strong trades with locally near gale through Fri morning before
diminishing on Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, the weather pattern will
support moderate to fresh trades through early Fri. Looking
ahead, a cold front will slowly enter the NW Caribbean on Fri
afternoon, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front should
stall and wash out over the NW Caribbean on Sat with conditions
gradually improving during the remainder of the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak frontal boundary extends from 28N55W to 28N70W with fresh
NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft along the front east of 65W. A
prefrontal trough is present from 22N47W to 31N41W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the trough axis.
The Bermuda High to the north of the front is helping to sustain
fresh to strong ENE winds and 5-7 ft seas in the approach to the
Windward Passage. Farther east, NE winds are fresh to strong with
seas 6-8 ft within 60 NM of the coast of Morocco. Elsewhere, winds
are moderate of weaker with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the front east
of 65W will diminish later today, as the front dissipates. The
Bermuda High to the north of the front is helping to sustain fresh
to strong ENE winds in the approach to the Windward Passage
through tonight before diminishing on Thu. Tonight, a new cold
front will emerge off of the NE Florida coast, bringing with it
fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front. The cold front
should extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits Thu night, from
31N63W to the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipating
from 31N57W to the central Bahamas by Sat night. A tightened
pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring
increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat,
gradually diminishing from west to east Sun.

$$
Landsea

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092
AXNT20 KNHC 261648
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1648 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 07N16W. An ITCZ extends
from 07N16W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 04N-09N east of 31W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and western Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to S Texas. A
prefrontal trough and the front are supporting numerous moderate
convection over the area. A surface trough across the Bay of
Campeche is supporting a cluster of moderate convection. Fresh to
strong NE winds are found over the NW Gulf along with seas 5 to 7
ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail with 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a stronger cold front will reach the NW Gulf
before noon and steadily sweep across the Gulf. The merged cold
fronts should extend from near Tampa to Tampico tonight, from the
Florida Straits to near Veracruz Thu night, and then exit the Gulf
to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the cold front.
Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front
with conditions improving by Fri night. Fresh to strong return
flow should set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat. Looking
ahead, the next cold front may emerge from the Texas coast Sat
night and progress southeastward across the W Gulf on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is depicted over the Gulf of
Honduras. Otherwise, a tight pressure gradient between the
Bermuda High and lower pressures over NW Colombia/SW Caribbean Sea
is forcing fresh to strong trades with locally near gale and seas
of 8-12 ft across most of the Caribbean. Trades in the E and NW
Caribbean are moderate to fresh with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong
trades across all but NW portions of the basin, with locally near
gale winds off Colombia through Thu morning, then gradually
diminishing winds and seas through Fri afternoon as the high
shifts eastward. A cold front will slowly enter the NW Caribbean
on Fri afternoon, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front
should stall from central Cuba to the southern Yucatan Peninsula
by Sat morning, then gradually wash out over the NW Caribbean by
Sat evening, with conditions improving during the remainder of the
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N40W to 26N59W with
moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft along the front
east of 41W. A prefrontal trough is present from 31N37W to
24N45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along these
features. The Bermuda High to the north of the front is helping
to sustain fresh to locally strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in
the approach to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE winds
with seas 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the tropical Atlantic.
Farther east, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas 6-9 ft
within 60 NM of the coast of Morocco. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate of weaker with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the
aforementioned front east of 65W will diminish later today, as
the front dissipates. A 1031 mb Bermuda High to the north of the
front will help to sustain fresh to strong E-NE winds in the
approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before
diminishing on Thu. Tonight, a new cold front will emerge off of
the NE Florida coast, bringing with it fresh to strong N to NE
winds behind the front. The cold front should extend from 31N72W
to the Florida Straits Thu night, from 31N63W to the central
Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N57W to the
central Bahamas by Sat night. A tight pressure gradient in the
wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing NE winds across
much of the forecast area Sat, gradually diminishing from west to
east Sun.

$$
KRV

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390
AXNT20 KNHC 262108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Nov 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from near 10N13W to 09N15W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N15W to 06.5N24W to 09.5N37W to near the far
northern coast of Brazil at 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is present from 02.5N to 08.5N between 11W and 34W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extending from
just south of Panama is causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near southern Nicaragua,
Costa Rica and western Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from northern Florida to far NE Mexico just
south of Brownsville, Texas. A prefrontal trough located about
90-210 nm ahead of the front, and the front itself are supporting
numerous moderate convection over the area. A surface trough
across the Bay of Campeche is supporting a cluster of moderate
convection. Fresh to strong NE winds are found behind the front
with 5-8 ft seas, highest in the central and southern Texas
coastal waters. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and
1-3 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and is expected to
extend from near Tampa to Tampico Thu morning, from the Florida
Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico Thu night, and then exit the
Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the cold front.
Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold
front, with conditions improving Fri night through Sat. Fresh to
strong return flow will set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat.
Looking ahead, the next cold front will emerge from the Texas
coast Sat night and meander slowly southeastward across the NW
Gulf Sun through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the convection mentioned above in the SW Caribbean,
scattered showers are noted in the SE Caribbean due to mid-to-
upper level support. A tight pressure gradient between the
Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressures over NW Colombia/SW
Caribbean Sea is forcing fresh to strong trades and seas of 8-12
ft across most of the central Caribbean between 68W and 83W, near
gale offshore northern Colombia. Trades are moderate to fresh in
the eastern Caribbean along with seas of 6-7 ft. Mainly moderate
trades and 4-6 ft seas are in the NW Caribbean and elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong
trades across all but NW portions of the basin through Thu
morning, with locally near gale winds off Colombia, then gradually
diminishing winds and seas through Fri afternoon as the high
shifts eastward. A cold front will slowly enter the NW Caribbean
on Fri, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front should
stall from central Cuba to the southern Yucatan Peninsula by Sat
morning, then gradually wash out over the NW Caribbean by Sat
evening, with conditions improving during the remainder of the
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from north of the area near the Azores to
1018 mb low pressure near 33.5N35.5W through 31N38W to 25.5N59W
with fresh to strong NE winds and 7-11 ft seas behind the front.
Widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are
possible north of 28N just ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh
trades are noted from 18N to 25N between about 50W and the Bahamas
with 1029 mb high pressure northwest of Bermuda controlling much
of the basin in the wake of the front. Another cold front is
approaching the Georgia coast with some associated scattered
showers just ahead of it now entering the waters offshore northern
Florida. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder
of the basin, along with 4-7 ft seas, except 2-4 ft north of 27N
and west of 77W. Also, fresh to strong winds and 7-9 ft seas are
noted offshore of northern Africa and to the north-northeast of
the Canary Islands due to a locally tight pressure gradient.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the front east
of 65W will diminish through Thu morning, as the front
dissipates. A 1030 mb Bermuda High to the north of the front will
help to sustain fresh to strong E-NE winds south of 23N and in the
approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before
diminishing on Thu. A new cold front will emerge off of the NE
Florida coast tonight, bringing with it fresh to locally strong N
to NE winds behind the front. The cold front will extend from
31N72W to the Florida Straits Thu night, from 31N63W through the
central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N59W the
NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake
of the front is forecast to bring increasing NE winds across much
of the forecast area Sat, gradually diminishing from west to east
Sun.

$$
Lewitsky

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503
AXNT20 KNHC 262109
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Nov 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from near 10N13W to 09N15W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N15W to 06.5N24W to 09.5N37W to near the far
northern coast of Brazil at 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is present from 02.5N to 08.5N between 11W and 34W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extending from
just south of Panama is causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near southern Nicaragua,
Costa Rica and western Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from northern Florida to far NE Mexico just
south of Brownsville, Texas. A prefrontal trough located about
90-210 nm ahead of the front, and the front itself are supporting
numerous moderate convection over the area. A surface trough
across the Bay of Campeche is supporting a cluster of moderate
convection. Fresh to strong NE winds are found behind the front
with 5-8 ft seas, highest in the central and southern Texas
coastal waters. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and
1-3 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and is expected to
extend from near Tampa to Tampico Thu morning, from the Florida
Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico Thu night, and then exit the
Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the cold front.
Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold
front, with conditions improving Fri night through Sat. Fresh to
strong return flow will set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat.
Looking ahead, the next cold front will emerge from the Texas
coast Sat night and meander slowly southeastward across the NW
Gulf Sun through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the convection mentioned above in the SW Caribbean,
scattered showers are noted in the SE Caribbean due to mid-to-
upper level support. A tight pressure gradient between the
Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressures over NW Colombia/SW
Caribbean Sea is forcing fresh to strong trades and seas of 8-12
ft across most of the central Caribbean between 68W and 83W, near
gale offshore northern Colombia. Trades are moderate to fresh in
the eastern Caribbean along with seas of 6-7 ft. Mainly moderate
trades and 4-6 ft seas are in the NW Caribbean and elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong
trades across all but NW portions of the basin through Thu
morning, with locally near gale winds off Colombia, then gradually
diminishing winds and seas through Fri afternoon as the high
shifts eastward. A cold front will slowly enter the NW Caribbean
on Fri, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front should
stall from central Cuba to the southern Yucatan Peninsula by Sat
morning, then gradually wash out over the NW Caribbean by Sat
evening, with conditions improving during the remainder of the
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from north of the area near the Azores to
1018 mb low pressure near 33.5N35.5W through 31N38W to 25.5N59W
with fresh to strong NE winds and 7-11 ft seas behind the front.
Widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are
possible north of 28N just ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh
trades are noted from 18N to 25N between about 50W and the Bahamas
with 1029 mb high pressure northwest of Bermuda controlling much
of the basin in the wake of the front. Another cold front is
approaching the Georgia coast with some associated scattered
showers just ahead of it now entering the waters offshore northern
Florida. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder
of the basin, along with 4-7 ft seas, except 2-4 ft north of 27N
and west of 77W. Also, fresh to strong winds and 7-9 ft seas are
noted offshore of northern Africa and to the north-northeast of
the Canary Islands due to a locally tight pressure gradient.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the front east
of 65W will diminish through Thu morning, as the front
dissipates. A 1030 mb Bermuda High to the north of the front will
help to sustain fresh to strong E-NE winds south of 23N and in the
approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before
diminishing on Thu. A new cold front will emerge off of the NE
Florida coast tonight, bringing with it fresh to locally strong N
to NE winds behind the front. The cold front will extend from
31N72W to the Florida Straits Thu night, from 31N63W through the
central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N59W the
NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake
of the front is forecast to bring increasing NE winds across much
of the forecast area Sat, gradually diminishing from west to east
Sun.

$$
Lewitsky

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677
AXNT20 KNHC 270610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Nov 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough runs westward from the Sierra Leone Coast just
south of Freetown to near 07N55W, then continues as an ITCZ from
07N55W to 07N30W to 06N48W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present near these features from 03N to
10N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 44W.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East
Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous heavy showers and
isolated strong thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near
Costa Rica and western Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Panhandle near
Saint Joseph Bay to southwest of New Orleans at 27N93W, then
continues as a stationary front to beyond the southern tip of
Texas. Patchy showers are occurring up to 40 nm along either side
of this boundary. A surface trough is causing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection across the west-central Gulf, and
at the southern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds
and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident near and beyond north of the
front. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present
at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds
and seas of 2 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeast and is
expected to extend from near Tampa, Florida to Tampico, Mexico
Thu morning, from the Florida Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico
Thu night, Then exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead
of the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the
wake of the cold front, with conditions improving Fri night
through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in the
northwestern Gulf Fri night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold
front will emerge from the Texas coast Sat night and meander
slowly southeastward across the northwestern Gulf Sun through
Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for convection in
the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE
winds and 10 to 12 ft seas are seen at the south-central and parts
of the western basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds
and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the eastern basin. Gentle to
moderate NNE to E winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail for the rest
of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will sustain fresh
to strong trades across all but the northwestern basin through
Thu morning, with locally near-gale winds and rough seas off
Colombia. These winds seas should gradually diminish through Fri
afternoon as the high shifts eastward. A new cold front will
slowly enter the northwestern Caribbean on Fri, followed by fresh
to strong NE winds. The front should stall from central Cuba to
the southern Yucatan Peninsula by Sat morning, then gradually wash
out over the northwestern Caribbean by Sat evening, with
conditions improving during the remainder of the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N36W through
26N50W to 25N60W. Widely scattered showers are evident up to 40
nm along either side of the front. A surface trough near the east
coast of Florida is causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms off southeastern Florida, including the northwest
Bahamas. Convergent trades are causing widely scattered showers
near the Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section at the very beginning for addition convection.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are found near
and up to 150 nm north of the front, and also north of Puerto
Rico and near the Turks and Caicos. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
NE to SSE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft dominate north of 20N
between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast, For the
tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas
are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle
with locally moderate SE to S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the front east
of 65W will diminish through Thu morning, as the front dissipates.
A 1030 mb Bermuda High to the north of the front will help to
sustain fresh to strong ENE winds south of 23N and in the
approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before
diminishing on Thu. A new cold front will emerge off of the
northeastern end Florida coast tonight, bringing with it fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds behind the front. The cold front
will extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits Thu night, from
31N63W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then
dissipate from 31N59W through the northwestern Bahamas by Sun
morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front is
forecast to bring increasing NE winds across much of the forecast
area Sat, before gradually diminishing from west to east Sun.

$$

Chan

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681
AXNT20 KNHC 270610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Nov 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough runs westward from the Sierra Leone Coast just
south of Freetown to near 07N55W, then continues as an ITCZ from
07N55W to 07N30W to 06N48W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present near these features from 03N to
10N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 44W.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East
Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous heavy showers and
isolated strong thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near
Costa Rica and western Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Panhandle near
Saint Joseph Bay to southwest of New Orleans at 27N93W, then
continues as a stationary front to beyond the southern tip of
Texas. Patchy showers are occurring up to 40 nm along either side
of this boundary. A surface trough is causing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection across the west-central Gulf, and
at the southern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds
and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident near and beyond north of the
front. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present
at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds
and seas of 2 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeast and is
expected to extend from near Tampa, Florida to Tampico, Mexico
Thu morning, from the Florida Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico
Thu night, Then exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead
of the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the
wake of the cold front, with conditions improving Fri night
through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in the
northwestern Gulf Fri night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold
front will emerge from the Texas coast Sat night and meander
slowly southeastward across the northwestern Gulf Sun through
Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for convection in
the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE
winds and 10 to 12 ft seas are seen at the south-central and parts
of the western basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds
and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the eastern basin. Gentle to
moderate NNE to E winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail for the rest
of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will sustain fresh
to strong trades across all but the northwestern basin through
Thu morning, with locally near-gale winds and rough seas off
Colombia. These winds seas should gradually diminish through Fri
afternoon as the high shifts eastward. A new cold front will
slowly enter the northwestern Caribbean on Fri, followed by fresh
to strong NE winds. The front should stall from central Cuba to
the southern Yucatan Peninsula by Sat morning, then gradually wash
out over the northwestern Caribbean by Sat evening, with
conditions improving during the remainder of the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N36W through
26N50W to 25N60W. Widely scattered showers are evident up to 40
nm along either side of the front. A surface trough near the east
coast of Florida is causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms off southeastern Florida, including the northwest
Bahamas. Convergent trades are causing widely scattered showers
near the Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section at the very beginning for addition convection.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are found near
and up to 150 nm north of the front, and also north of Puerto
Rico and near the Turks and Caicos. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
NE to SSE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft dominate north of 20N
between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast, For the
tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas
are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle
with locally moderate SE to S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the front east
of 65W will diminish through Thu morning, as the front dissipates.
A 1030 mb Bermuda High to the north of the front will help to
sustain fresh to strong ENE winds south of 23N and in the
approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before
diminishing on Thu. A new cold front will emerge off of the
northeastern end Florida coast tonight, bringing with it fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds behind the front. The cold front
will extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits Thu night, from
31N63W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then
dissipate from 31N59W through the northwestern Bahamas by Sun
morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front is
forecast to bring increasing NE winds across much of the forecast
area Sat, before gradually diminishing from west to east Sun.

$$

Chan

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486
AXNT20 KNHC 271042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Nov 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough runs westward from the Sierra Leone Coast to
near 07N15W, then continues as the ITCZ from 07N15W to 08N35W to
06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present near these
features from 03N to 12N between the Liberia coast and 45W.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East
Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous heavy showers and
isolated strong thunderstorms over the Caribbean offshore waters
of Costa Rica, western Panama and Nicaragua.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 27N92W where it
stalls and then continues to southern Texas. Active showers and
thunderstorms are ahead of this frontal boundary being enhanced by
the presence of two surface troughs, one over the SE basin and the
other in the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong N to NE
winds follow this front along with seas to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and is expected to
extend from near Tampa to Tampico later this morning, from the
Florida Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico tonight, and then exit
the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the cold front.
Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold
front, with conditions improving Fri night through Sat. Fresh to
strong return flow will set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat.
Looking ahead, the next cold front will emerge from the Texas
coast Sat night and meander slowly southeastward across the NW
Gulf Sun through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient associated with the Bermuda High and
lower pressure linked to the E extension of the Pacific monsoon
continues to support strong to near gales off Colombia and most of
the SW basin. Seas with these winds are rough in the 8 to 12 ft.
Moderate to fresh are elsewhere in the central and E Caribbean
along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are ongoing in the NW Caribbean waters. Otherwise,
heavy showers and scattered tstms are affecting the offshore
waters of W Panama, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain strong to
near gale-force trades over the SW and portions of the central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through Fri morning.
Moderate to fresh trades are forecast elsewhere in the eastern and
central basin through Mon. A cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean on Fri morning, followed by fresh to strong NE winds.
The front is forecast to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan
Peninsula Fri night, then gradually dissipate over the NW
Caribbean on Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N36W through
26N50W to 24N61W. High pressure of 1029 mb N of this boundary
continues to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the
central subtropical Atlantic waters between 38W and 68W where seas
are rough to 10 ft. A new cold front is emerging off of the NE
Florida coast this morning, preceded and followed by moderate to
fresh winds. Seas are moderate. Surface ridging along with
moderate or weaker winds and seas are ongoing elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the stationary
front east of 65W will diminish this morning, as the front dissipates.
A 1029 mb Bermuda High to the north of the front will help to
sustain fresh E-NE winds south of 23N and in the approach to the
Windward Passage through tonight before diminishing on Fri. The
new cold front coming off the NE Florida coast this morning will
be followed by fresh to locally strong N to NE winds. The cold
front will extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits tonight, from
31N63W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then
dissipate from 31N59W the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight
pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring
increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat,
gradually diminishing from west to east Sun.

$$
Ramos

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