263
AXNT20 KNHC 231744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jun 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W
from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 5 to 10
kt. Widely scattered showers are noted from 08N to 10N between 21W
and 26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 16N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident from 06N to 10N between 52W, and
Trinidad and Tobago.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from south of
Puerto Rico southward into central Venezuela, and moving west at
15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed fro
11N to 13N between 62W and 70W, including the ABC Islands.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from southeast of
Jamaica southward to over northwestern Colombia, and moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated strong
thunderstorms are occurring off northwestern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near El Mamghar, then reaches southwestward to 11N21W. An ITCZ
continues west-southwestward from 11N21W to 09N23W, then from
08N26W across 05N40W to north of French Guiana at 06N52W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 100 nm north
of the ITCZ between 23W and 35W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present near and up to 100 nm north of the
ITCZ between 35W and 52W.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of East Pacific
monsoon trough is producing scattered to numerous heavy showers
and isolated strong thunderstorms across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea near Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Two surface troughs are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms off Tampico, Mexico and across the eastern Gulf. A
weak surface ridge runs west-southwestward from the Florida
Panhandle to near the Texas-Mexico border. Moderate with locally
fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident at the Bay
of Campeche and Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak surface ridge will persist across the
Gulf waters through Friday. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche
as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the
region. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas can be expected elsewhere through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are generating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula eastward to near the Windward Passage. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
convection in the Caribbean Sea. Latest satellite derived wind
data reveal fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and 6 to
8 ft seas across the south-central and southeastern basin,
including the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas of
3 to 5 ft are noted at the northwestern basin west of 84W. Light
to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in NE swell exist near Costa
Rica and Panama. Moderate with locally fresh easterly trade winds
and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea,
including the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high
off northeastern Florida and lower pressure over the southwestern
Caribbean will support fresh to strong trades over the central
basin through the week. Locally near gale-force winds are likely
off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu night. Moderate to
rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. Looking ahead, high
pressure will develop and strengthen south of Bermuda Thu
evening, resulting in the expansion of fresh to near-gale force
winds to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1018 mb low
pressure (Invest AL90) located north of the forecast area near
33N55W to 25N68W. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring up to 50 nm northwest, and 150 nm
southeast of the trough axis. Similar conditions are seen farther
southwest from 21N to 23N between 66w and the southeast Bahamas.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at
the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1033 mb Azores
High across 31N40W to a 1023 mb high off northeastern Florida.
These features are sustaining gentle to locally moderate NE to SE
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas north of 24N between 35W and the
Florida coast/central Bahamas. Farther south from 20N to 24N
between 35W and the southeast Bahamas, moderate with locally fresh
ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present. For the
tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N west of 35W, moderate to fresh
with locally strong NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft exist.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 10
ft seas dominate waters north of 17N between the Canary Islands
and 35W. Gentle to moderate NW to NE winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft
in moderate northerly swell are noted near the Cabo Verde Islands
between the central Africa coast and 35W. For the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned trough will
dissipate tonight into Tue, and the subtropical ridge will build
westward towards the Florida peninsula. Under this weather
pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally
rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with
gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, locally
strong E winds are expected north of Hispaniola Wed through Fri.

$$

Chan

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166
AXNT20 KNHC 232350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Periods of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will occur over
the southern Caribbean and into Nicaragua and Costa Rica through
at least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the
region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical
wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast
to observe the highest amounts of rain tonight into Tuesday, while
northeastern Nicaragua is expected to observe its rainfall maxima
on Wednesday. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the
region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25.5W from 16N
southward, and moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 08N to 10N between 25W and 28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 16N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident from 06N to 10N between 50W and
Trinidad and Tobago.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67.5W from southwest
of Puerto Rico southward into central Venezuela, and moving west
at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed
from 11N to 14N between 66W and 70W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from south of
Jamaica southward to over eastern Panama, and moving west at 15 to
20 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring off northwestern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N17W, then reaches
southwestward to 11N21W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from
11N21W to 09N25W, then from 09N27W to 07N54W, and from 09N57W to
10N62W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to
12N east of 20W. Widely scattered convection is noted south of 10N
between 35W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough spans from the Big Bend of Florida southwestward
to 26N88W, leading to widely scattered thunderstorms across the
northern half of the basin. Moderate with locally fresh E to SE
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident at the Bay of Campeche and
Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging extending from the SW N
Atlantic waters will dominate the Gulf waters through Sat night.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and
evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops
and tracks westward across the region. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere
through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are generating widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula eastward to near the Windward Passage. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh easterly trade winds and 6
to 8 ft seas are occurring across the south-central and
southeastern basin, including the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate
E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted at the northwestern basin
west of 84W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in NE
swell exist near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate with locally
fresh easterly trade winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Sea, including the lee of Cuba and Windward
Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between SW N Atlantic
high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will
support fresh to strong trades over the central and SW part of the
basin through the week. Locally near gale-force winds are likely
off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu night. Moderate to
rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. Looking ahead, high
pressure will develop and strengthen S of Bermuda Thu evening,
resulting in the expansion of fresh to near gale-force winds to
the Gulf of Honduras Thu night through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1018 mb low
pressure (Invest AL90) located north of the forecast area near
31N57W to 21N70W. Widely scattered showers are occurring within
150 NM of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1032 mb Azores
High across 31N40W to a 1024 mb high off northeastern Florida.
These features are sustaining gentle to locally moderate NE to SE
winds with 4 to 5 ft seas north of 24N between 35W and the
Florida coast/central Bahamas. Farther south from 20N to 24N
between 35W and the southeast Bahamas, moderate with locally fresh
ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present. For the
tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N west of 35W, moderate to fresh
with locally strong NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft exist.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 10
ft seas dominate waters north of 17N between the northwest coast
of Africa and 35W. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west
of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in
mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough associated with Invest
90L will dissipate tonight into Tue, and the Atlantic high
pressure will then extend westward towards the Florida peninsula.
Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with
moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the
next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere.
Otherwise, locally strong E winds are expected N of Hispaniola Wed
through Fri.

$$
ADAMS

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396
AXNT20 KNHC 240457
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Periods of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will occur over
the southern Caribbean and into Nicaragua and Costa Rica through
at least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the
region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical
wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast
to observe the highest amounts of rain tonight into Tuesday, while
northeastern Nicaragua is expected to observe its rainfall maxima
on Wednesday. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the
region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 17N, moving
westward around 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the wave
axis.

A tropical wave has been relocated along 61W based on satellite
and precipitable water imagery. The wave is moving westward around
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident south of 12N and between
55W and 63W, also affecting the Windward Islands. The wave is
also enhancing convection over NE South America.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 18N,
moving quickly westward around 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is found south of 18N and between 66W and 73W.

Another central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of
18N, moving westward around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is evident across the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W, then continuing southwestward to 08N31W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N31W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 06N to 12N and east of 22W. Similar
convection is seen south of 08N and west of 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft is supporting popcorn convection over the
northern half of the Gulf waters, while diurnal heating is
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
NE and northern Gulf coast and western Yucatan and surrounding
waters. The subtropical ridge extends into the Gulf of America. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass show strong to near gale-force
easterly trade winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas in these waters
are 3-5 ft (1-1.5 m). The satellite-derived wind data also
captured fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the SE Gulf,
especially in the Florida Straits. Seas are 4-6 ft (1.5-2 m) in
the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from the SW N Atlantic waters
will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sat night.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and
evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops
and tracks westward across the region. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere
through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Diurnal heating supports scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across eastern Yucatan, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola.
Please see the Tropical Waves section for more detail on the
convection associated with these features. High pressure to the
north of the islands continues to sustain fresh to locally strong
easterly trade winds over much of the basin. This was confirmed by
a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas of 4-7 ft (1.5-2.5 m)
are noted in the central and eastern Caribbean, Windward Passage
and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to
strong trades across most of the east and central Caribbean
through the week. Winds are expected to reach near gale force off
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela by Thu night. Moderate to
rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. By late this week,
winds may increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras due
to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a broad
area of low pressure currently located a few hundred miles
offshore of Central America which has the potential of tropical
cyclone formation.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1020 mb gale low
pressure (Invest 90L) located north of the forecast area near
35N53W to the SE Bahamas. Isolated to scattered showers are
evident on satellite imagery north of 22N and between 55W and 70W.
The rest of the basin is under the influence of an expansive
subtropical ridge that supports moderate to locally strong
easterly trade winds south of 25N and west of 45W. Seas in these
waters are 5-9 ft (1.5-3 m). In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas are noted north of 18N
and east of 25W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas
are prevalent between 25W and 45W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough persist over the
forecast waters, and extends southwestward from 31N56W to the
central Bahamas. The trough will dissipate tonight into Tue, and
the Atlantic high pressure will then extend westward towards the
Florida peninsula. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh
trades along with moderate to locally rough seas are expected
south of 25N over the next few days, with gentle to locally
moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong E
winds are expected N of Hispaniola Wed through Fri.

$$
Delgado

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158
AXNT20 KNHC 241005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Periods of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will occur over
the southern Caribbean and into Nicaragua and Costa Rica through
at least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the
region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical
wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast
to observe the highest amounts of rain today, while northeastern
Nicaragua is expected to observe its rainfall maxima on Wednesday.
Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 28W, south of 16N, moving
westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
where the wave meets the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 64W, south of 17N, moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Some
shower activity is near the wave axis. The wave appears to enhance
convection over eastern Venezuela.

A second tropical is over the central Caribbean with axis along
73W,south of 18N, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is found from 13N to 15N between 70W and 76W.
This wave is forecast to reach Central America on Wed, increasing
the likelihood of showers and tstms there.

The tropical wave previously located along 79W is not longer
discernible on TPW product and satellite imagery, and now appears
to be part of the broad circulation currently observed over the
far eastern Pacific and the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W, then continues southwestward to 09N31W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N31W to 07N45W to the coast of Guyana near
07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to
10N between 13W and 20W, and south of 08N west of 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf
region producing in general gentle to moderate E to SE winds. The
exception are fresh to strong E winds to the W of the Yucatan
Penninsula due to local effects associated with a thermal trough,
and in the Straits of Florida where scatterometer data indicate
fresh to strong E winds, particularly from the coast of western
Cuba to about 24.5N between 81W and 84W. Seas are 6 ft within
these winds. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in
the NE Gulf. Showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed
along the coast of Mexico, particularly between Tampico and
Veracruz, including also the western Bay of Campeche. A diffluent
pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from the SW N Atlantic waters
will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sat night.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and
evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops
and tracks westward across the region. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere
through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh
to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, on either side
of the Lesser Antilles, including waters between the islands, and
E of the Lesser Antilles to about 45W where rough seas persist.
These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low. Moderate to fresh trades
and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. Convection
continues to flare-up over the SW Caribbean in association with a
northward displacement of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough and a
broad area of low pressure extending from the SW Caribbean into
the eastern Pacific region.

For the forecast, the pressure between the Atlantic ridge and the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades
across most of the east and central Caribbean through the week.
Winds are expected to reach near gale force off Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela by Thu night. Moderate to rough seas are
expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds
and moderate seas will prevail. By late this week, winds may
increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras due to the
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of
low pressure currently located a few hundred miles offshore of
Central America. This system has the potential of tropical cyclone
formation.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1019 mb gale center
(Invest 90L) located north of the forecast area near 35N51W to
near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered moderate convection
is near the trough axis, mainly from 23N to 30N. High pressure of
1029 mb located SW of the Azores near 34N35W dominates the remainder
of the forecast area, with another high pressure of 1023 mb situated
E of northern Florida near 30N78W. Scatterometer and altimeter data
indicate fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the tropical
Atlantic between 45W and the Lesser Antilles, and N of 20N E of
35W, including between the Canary Islands. Fresh to locally strong
E winds are noted N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, including
approaches to the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
will dissipate today, and the Atlantic high pressure will then
extend westward towards the Florida peninsula. Under this weather
pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally
rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with
gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to
locally strong E winds are expected N of Hispaniola Wed through
Fri.

$$
GR

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333
AXNT20 KNHC 241734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy
rainfall and strong thunderstorms will occur over the southern
Caribbean and into Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras through at
least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the
region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical
wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast
to observe the highest amounts of rain today, while northeastern
Nicaragua and Honduras are expected to observe their rainfall
maxima on Wednesday.

Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 30W, south of 16N, moving
westward around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07-10N between 29-31W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 66W from SE Puerto Rico southward to central Venezuela,
moving westward at 20-25 kt. Some shower activity is near the
wave axis.

Another tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis
along 76W, south of 19N, moving quickly westward at about 25 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is found immediately along the wave
axis. This wave is forecast to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica on Wed, increasing the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms there.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 13N17W, then continues southwestward to 07N21W and
then west-northwestward to 08N32W. The ITCZ extends from 08N32W to
the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 06N to 10N between 15W and 21W, as well as south
of 10N and west of 50W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is observed S of 13N and
W of 80W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A diffluent pattern aloft and weak upper level shortwave are
helping to induce scattered moderate convection over the Gulf N of
25N between 87-91W. To the southwest, a surface trough is
analyzed paralleling the Mexican coast from the Bay of Campeche to
near the US-Mexico border. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen S of 24N and W of 94W. Moderate to fresh E
winds prevail across much of the Gulf E of 90W, while moderate or
weaker winds prevail W of 90W. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail E of 90W,
with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from the SW N Atlantic waters
will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sat night.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and
evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops
and tracks westward across the region. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere
through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh
to strong E winds over the central and eastern Caribbean. These
winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian Low. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. Elsewhere, a
weak upper level shortwave is leading to the development of
scattered moderate convection in the NW Caribbean, including the
Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean due to the E
Pacific monsoon, the Colombian low and the passage of tropical
waves will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most
of the central and and SW Caribbean through Sat night. Winds are
expected to reach near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela Thu late afternoon and Thu night. Moderate to rough seas
are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
winds and moderate seas will prevail. By late Fri, winds may
increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras due to the
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a tropical wave
that will be moving across Central America.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a low located north
of the forecast area near 36N50W to near 26N73W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 23-30N between 57-70W, also
enhanced by an upper-level low. High pressure of 1031 mb located
SW of the Azores near 34N35W dominates the remainder of the
forecast area. Scatterometer and altimeter data indicate fresh
to strong trades and 7-9 ft seas over the tropical Atlantic S of
20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, and N of 20N E of 30W,
including between the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh E Winds
prevail N of 20N between 30-45W, along with 4-7 ft seas.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough persists over the
forecast waters, and extends southwestward from 31N66W to the
central Bahamas offshore waters near 25N72W. The trough will
dissipate today, and the Atlantic ridge will strengthen. Under
this weather pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate
seas are expected south of 25N through the weekend, with gentle
to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E
winds are expected N of Hispaniola Wed through Fri night.

$$
Adams

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415
AXNT20 KNHC 241734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy
rainfall and strong thunderstorms will occur over the southern
Caribbean and into Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras through at
least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the
region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical
wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast
to observe the highest amounts of rain today, while northeastern
Nicaragua and Honduras are expected to observe their rainfall
maxima on Wednesday.

Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 30W, south of 16N, moving
westward around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07-10N between 29-31W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 66W from SE Puerto Rico southward to central Venezuela,
moving westward at 20-25 kt. Some shower activity is near the
wave axis.

Another tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis
along 76W, south of 19N, moving quickly westward at about 25 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is found immediately along the wave
axis. This wave is forecast to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica on Wed, increasing the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms there.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 13N17W, then continues southwestward to 07N21W and
then west-northwestward to 08N32W. The ITCZ extends from 08N32W to
the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 06N to 10N between 15W and 21W, as well as south
of 10N and west of 50W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is observed S of 13N and
W of 80W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A diffluent pattern aloft and weak upper level shortwave are
helping to induce scattered moderate convection over the Gulf N of
25N between 87-91W. To the southwest, a surface trough is
analyzed paralleling the Mexican coast from the Bay of Campeche to
near the US-Mexico border. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen S of 24N and W of 94W. Moderate to fresh E
winds prevail across much of the Gulf E of 90W, while moderate or
weaker winds prevail W of 90W. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail E of 90W,
with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from the SW N Atlantic waters
will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sat night.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and
evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops
and tracks westward across the region. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere
through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh
to strong E winds over the central and eastern Caribbean. These
winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian Low. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. Elsewhere, a
weak upper level shortwave is leading to the development of
scattered moderate convection in the NW Caribbean, including the
Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean due to the E
Pacific monsoon, the Colombian low and the passage of tropical
waves will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most
of the central and and SW Caribbean through Sat night. Winds are
expected to reach near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela Thu late afternoon and Thu night. Moderate to rough seas
are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
winds and moderate seas will prevail. By late Fri, winds may
increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras due to the
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a tropical wave
that will be moving across Central America.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a low located north
of the forecast area near 36N50W to near 26N73W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 23-30N between 57-70W, also
enhanced by an upper-level low. High pressure of 1031 mb located
SW of the Azores near 34N35W dominates the remainder of the
forecast area. Scatterometer and altimeter data indicate fresh
to strong trades and 7-9 ft seas over the tropical Atlantic S of
20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, and N of 20N E of 30W,
including between the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh E Winds
prevail N of 20N between 30-45W, along with 4-7 ft seas.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough persists over the
forecast waters, and extends southwestward from 31N66W to the
central Bahamas offshore waters near 25N72W. The trough will
dissipate today, and the Atlantic ridge will strengthen. Under
this weather pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate
seas are expected south of 25N through the weekend, with gentle
to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E
winds are expected N of Hispaniola Wed through Fri night.

$$
Adams

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300
AXNT20 KNHC 242302
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Jun 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy
rainfall and strong thunderstorms will occur over the southern
Caribbean and into Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras through at
least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the
region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical
wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast
to observe the highest amounts of rain today, while northeastern
Nicaragua and Honduras are expected to observe their rainfall
maxima on Wednesday.

Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 32W, south of 15N, moving
westward around 15-20 kt. No significant convection is evident
near this tropical wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean, south of
the Mona Passage, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Some shower
activity is near the wave axis.

Another tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis
along 79W, south of 19N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is found immediately along the wave axis. This
wave is forecast to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica
on Wed, increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms
there.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 13N17W, then continues southwestward to 08N20W and
then to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from 09N35W to 06N57W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 07N to 09N between 18W and
22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A diffluent pattern aloft and weak upper level shortwave are
helping to induce scattered moderate convection over the western
and central Gulf west of 85W. A broad ridge is centered north of
the area over the eastern United States. A surface trough extends
over the western Gulf from the central Bay of Campeche to the
mouth of the Rio Grande. This pattern is supporting gentle to
moderate E winds across the Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas from the
Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel, and 1 to 3 ft seas
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the broad ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through Sat night. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche
as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the
region. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate
seas can be expected elsewhere through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh
to strong E winds over the central and eastern Caribbean. These
winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian Low. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. Elsewhere, a
weak upper level shortwave is leading to the development of
scattered moderate convection in the NW Caribbean, including the
Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and
lower pressure over the SW Caribbean due to the E Pacific
monsoon, the Colombian low and the passage of tropical waves
will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of
the central and and SW Caribbean through Sun night. Winds are
expected to reach near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela Thu late afternoon and Thu night. Moderate to rough seas
are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
winds and moderate seas will prevail. By late Fri, winds may
increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras due to the
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a tropical wave
that will be moving across Central America.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak pressure pattern remains in place across the subtropical
western Atlantic. A trough reaches from near Bermuda to 26N71W. A
few thunderstorms are active near the southern end of the trough.
The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds
south of 22N and west of 35W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle breezes
and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are evident east of 35W, except for strong NE winds
off the northwest coast of Africa. Seas are 7 to 9 ft east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough south of Bermuda will
dissipate this evening, and the Atlantic ridge will strengthen.
Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with
moderate seas are expected south of 25N through the weekend, with
gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to
strong E winds are expected N of Hispaniola Wed through Fri night.

$$
Christensen

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897
AXNT20 KNHC 250439
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jun 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy
rainfall and strong thunderstorms will continue over the southern
Caribbean and into Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras through at
least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the
region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical
wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast
to observe the highest amounts of rain today, while northeastern
Nicaragua and Honduras are expected to observe their rainfall
maxima on Wednesday.

Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 15N,
moving westward around 15-20 kt. A few showers are seen near the
trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 25 kt. The wave is enhancing strong
convection across Hispaniola and northern Venezuela.

A strong tropical wave is along 81W in the western Caribbean,
south of 19N, moving westward around 25 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed south of 19N and between
76W and 86W. This wave is forecast to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica on Wed, increasing the likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms there.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N33W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N35W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 05N to 13N and east of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A diffluent pattern aloft and a weak upper level shortwave are
helping to induce scattered moderate convection over the western
and central Gulf west of 85W. A weak pressure gradient result in
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N and east of
93W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft (1-2 m). Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from the SW N Atlantic waters will
continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sun night. Fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and evening over the
next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern
Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward
across the region. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas can be expected elsewhere through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.

Divergence aloft continues to support isolated to scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across much of the central and western
Caribbean, while drier conditions prevail in the eastern Caribbean.
A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the islands forces
fresh to strong easterly trade winds across much of the central
and eastern Caribbean. However, a recent scatterometer satellite
pass captured near gale-force easterly winds off northern Colombia.
Rough seas are present in the central Caribbean, while moderate
seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to
locally fresh easterly breezes and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to
strong trades across most of the central and and SW Caribbean
through Sun night. Winds are expected to reach near gale force off
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu and Thu night. Moderate
to rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. By late
Thu, winds may increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras
due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a
broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific region
offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper trough over the SW North Atlantic is producing
isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of
65W. The heaviest convection is seen across the SE Bahamas. The
Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic
forecast waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed
moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 25N and
west of 45W. Moderate to rough seas are noted in the area
described, with the highest seas occurring east of the Lesser
Antilles. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds
and moderate to rough seas are occurring north of 18N and east of
25W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate
seas are evident between 25W and 45W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the entire
forecast area. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh
trades along with moderate seas are expected south of 25N through
the weekend, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere.
Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds are expected N of Hispaniola
Wed through Fri night.

$$
Delgado

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237
AXNT20 KNHC 251008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jun 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy rain
will continue to affect portions of Central America, particularly
areas in Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras through at least
early Fri. Abundant tropical moisture persists over the region,
supported by a broad cyclonic circulation and a tropical wave
that is reaching the coast of Nicaragua, and extends southward
over Costa Rica. Currently, showers and thunderstorms are
occurring over NE Honduras, the eastern plains of Nicaragua and
parts of Costa Rica and western Panama. Areas of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica are forecast to observe the highest amounts of rain
today. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region
for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is added to the 0600 UTC analysis/surface map
along 19W based on satellite imagery and the TPW product. In
addition, the Howmoller Diagram shows the westward propagation of
the wave, which is generating scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 06N to 10N between 13W and 20W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 16N, moving
westward at around 15 to 20 kt. A few showers are seen near the
trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 25 kt. The wave is enhancing convection
over parts of Hispaniola and western Venezuela.

A strong tropical wave is along 83W in the western Caribbean,
south of 19N, moving westward around 25 kt. The wave is helping to
induce convection over parts of Central America. Please, see the
Special Features section for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N32W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N32W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from
06N to 10N between 20W and 31W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf
waters producing in general gentle to moderate E to SE winds, with
the exception of moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Bay of
Campeche due to local effects associated with a thermal trough,
and in the Straits of Florida where scatterometer data also
indicate moderate to fresh E winds. Light and variable winds and
slight seas prevail over the NE Gulf where a 1022 mb high pressure
is analyzed. Elsewhere, seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 3 to 5 ft over
the SE Gulf. Showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed
over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are seen elsewhere across the western Gulf. A
diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters
through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
will pulse each evening and night over the next several days north
of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due
to local effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate E
to SE winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere
through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh
to strong trade winds over most of the east and central Caribbean,
with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt over the south-central
Caribbean, offshore Colombia. Rough seas are within these winds.
Fresh to strong E winds are also noted over the Windward Passage
likely associated with the presence of strong convection there.
Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge
and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong
trades across most of the central and and SW Caribbean through Sun
night. Winds are expected to reach near gale force off Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu and Thu night. Moderate to rough
seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
winds and moderate seas will prevail. By Thu night, winds may
increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras due to the
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of
low pressure located over the eastern Pacific region, offshore of
Central America and Southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper-level low, spinning just N of the NW Bahamas, is
generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over
most of the waters NW of a line from 27N55W to the SE Bahamas,
including the area between the Bahamas and east-central Cuba. The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with
a 1026 mb center located near 33N36W. Scatterometer and altimeter
data indicate fresh to locally strong trades and moderate to rough
seas over the tropical Atlantic between 45W to the Lesser Antilles,
from 19N to 24N E of 30W, and from 24N to 28N E of 18W to the
coast of W Africa, including between the Canary Islands. Fresh to
locally strong E to SE winds are noted N of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the entire
forecast area. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh
trades along with moderate seas are expected south of 25N through
the weekend, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere.
Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds are expected N of Hispaniola
Wed through Fri night.

$$
GR

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460
AXNT20 KNHC 251639
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jun 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1639 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy rain
will continue to affect portions of Central America, particularly
areas in Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras through at least
early Fri. Abundant tropical moisture persists over the region,
supported by a broad cyclonic circulation and a tropical wave
that is currently over Honduras and Nicaragua, and extends
southward over Costa Rica. Showers and thunderstorms are
occurring over NE Honduras, the eastern plains of Nicaragua and
parts of Costa Rica, and western Panama. Areas of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica are forecast to observe the highest amounts of rain
today. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region
for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on
satellite imagery and wave diagnostics. The wave axis is along
25W, south of 14N. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from
04N to 14N between 17.5W and 28W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on
satellite imagery and wave diagnostics and is now along 40W,
south of 15.5N. A few showers are seen near the trough axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 19N,
moving westward around 25 kt. No significant convection is
depicted at the moment in association with this wave.

A strong tropical wave is along 84W in the western Caribbean,
south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping
to induce convection over parts of Central America. Please, see
the Special Features section for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 08N41.5W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N41.5W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 11N between 28.5W
and 38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf
waters producing in general gentle to moderate E to SE winds over
the central Gulf with seas 3 to 5 ft. Light and variable winds
and slight seas prevail over the NE Gulf and the western Gulf.
Showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed over the SW
Gulf, including the Veracruz area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen elsewhere across the western Gulf. A
deep layer trough is helping to induce this convective activity.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to
E winds will pulse each evening and night over the next several
days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of
Campeche due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas can be
expected elsewhere through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.

Fresh to strong trade winds prevail over most of the east and
central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt over
the south-central Caribbean, offshore Colombia. Rough seas are
within these winds. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas
dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E
Pacific monsoon and the passage of tropical waves will continue
to support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and
SW Caribbean through Sun night. Winds are expected to reach near
gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu and Thu
night. Moderate to rough seas are expected within these winds.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.
Winds will increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras
tonight through Sat night due to a tighter pressure gradient
between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure
located over the eastern Pacific region, offshore of Central
America and Southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper-level low, spinning just N of the NW Bahamas, is
generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over
most of the waters NW of a line from 27N54W to the SE Bahamas,
including the area between the Bahamas and east-central Cuba and
the Straits of Florida. The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the
Atlantic forecast region, with a 1028 mb center located near
33N37W. Scatterometer and altimeter data indicates moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas over the tropical Atlantic
including the coast of W Africa, and between the Canary Islands.
Fresh E to SE winds are noted N of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region through the weekend,
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas S of
25N. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds will
pulse late in the afternoons and at night N of Hispaniola through
the weekend.

$$
KRV

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369
AXNT20 KNHC 252218
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jun 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy rain
will continue to affect portions of Central America, particularly
areas in Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras through at least
early Fri. Abundant tropical moisture persists over the region,
supported by a broad cyclonic circulation and a tropical wave
that is currently over Honduras and Nicaragua, and extends
southward over Costa Rica. Showers and thunderstorms are
occurring over NE Honduras, the eastern plains of Nicaragua and
parts of Costa Rica, and western Panama. Areas of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica are forecast to observe the highest amounts of rain
today. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region
for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on
satellite imagery and wave diagnostics. The wave axis is along
26W, south of 14N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is associated with this tropical wave.

Another Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on
satellite imagery and wave diagnostics and is now along 41W,
south of 15.5N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is associated with this tropical wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 19N,
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 17N to 20N between 72W and 80W.

A tropical wave is along 85W in the western Caribbean, south of
19N across eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce convection over parts of
Central America. Please, see the Special Features section for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N30W to 05N52W. No significant convection is
evident at this time.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through early
next week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse each
evening and night over the next several days north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local effects
induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds prevail over most of the east and
central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt over
the south-central Caribbean, offshore Colombia. Rough seas are
within these winds. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas
dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific
monsoon and the passage of tropical waves will continue to
support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and SW
Caribbean through Mon night. Winds are expected to reach near
gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu and Thu
night. Moderate to rough seas are expected within these winds.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.
Winds will increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras
tonight through Sat night due to a tighter pressure gradient
between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure
located over the eastern Pacific region, offshore of Central
America and Southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of an upper low
centered off east-central Florida is supporting clusters of
showers and thunderstorms over the central Bahamas and adjacent
Atlantic waters. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge anchored by 1027
mb high pressure centered southwest of the Azores dominates the
Atlantic. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and 5 to 8 ft seas south of 22N and west of 35W, with strong
winds pulsing off the north coast of Hispaniola. Gentle to
moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are active north of 22N west
of 35W. Fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted east
of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region through early next week,
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas S of
25N. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds will
pulse late in the afternoons and at night N of Hispaniola through
Mon night.

$$
Christensen

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026
AXNT20 KNHC 260609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jun 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America/Western Caribbean:
Interaction between a couple of tropical waves and abundant
tropical moisture will continue to trigger sporadic deep
convection capable of producing heavy rain across the western
Caribbean and parts of central America through Friday. This will
increase the potential for flash flooding and mudslide, especially
in hilly terrains. In addition, divergent flow aloft will also
increases the chance of strong thunderstorms with dangerous
lightning and gusty winds. The heaviest rainfall is expected to
be near the east of coast of northern Nicaragua, Honduras,
Guatemala and Belize. Please refer to the local Weather Services
in the region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W from just
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west
around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this
tropical wave.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 15N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 10N to 12N between 41W and 45W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from south of Jamaica
southward to near the Panama-Colombia border. It is moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is evident over northwestern Colombia.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from the Gulf of
Honduras southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and western Costa
Rica into the East Pacific. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt.
Aided by divergent flow aloft, numerous heavy showers and
scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring near the coast of
Honduras and Nicaragua. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found farther north near the Cayman Islands and
at the western Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near Nouakchott, then reaches southwestward and to
09N29W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N29W to 09N40W, then
southwestward from 09N43W to near the coastal border of French
Guiana and Suriname. Scattered to numerous heavy showers are
present south of the monsoon trough near the coast of Senegal and
Guiana. Scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 130
nm north of the ITCZ between 31W and 39W, and west of 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Two surface troughs are triggering widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms off the Florida west coast, and at the
southern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high at the
northeastern Gulf is dominating the rest of the Gulf. Moderate to
fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident at the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas
exist at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the 1020 mb high will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through early next week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
will pulse each evening and night over the next several days
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche
due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected
elsewhere through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section about potential heavy
rainfall in the western Caribbean, and the Tropical Waves section
for convection in the entire Caribbean Sea. Strong with locally
near-gale E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft dominate the south-
central basin. Fresh to strong E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are
noted at the north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas
at 2 to 4 ft in moderate NE swell exist near Costa Rica and
Panama. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Windward and
Mona Passages.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and lower pressure in the southwestern basin associated
with the East Pacific monsoon and the passage of tropical waves
will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the
central and southwestern basin through the end of the week. Winds
are expected to reach near-gale force off Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to rough seas are expected within
these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
will prevail. Winds will continue to increase and become strong
over the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night due to a tighter
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of
low pressure located over the eastern Pacific region, offshore of
Central America and Southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough near the Bahamas is joining forces with an
upper-level low over Florida to produce scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms off the Florida west coast, and over the
central and southeast Bahamas. Farther east, another upper-level
low near 28N55W is causing isolated thunderstorms north of 25N
between 56W and 60W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

A subtropical ridge extending southwestward from a 1028 mb Azores
High across 31N43W to a 1021 mb Bermuda High is supporting gentle
winds with 3 to 5 ft seas north of 26N between 50W and the
Florida-southenr Georgia coast. Farther east, gentle to moderate
ENE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are present north of 26N
between 35W and 50W. To the south from 08N to 26N between 35W and
the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds
with 6 to 8 ft seas are found. Gentle with locally moderate E to
SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region through early next week,
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas south
of 25N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds will pulse
late in the afternoons and at night north of Hispaniola through
early next week.

$$

Chan

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548
AXNT20 KNHC 261052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jun 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a couple of tropical waves and abundant
tropical moisture over the same area will continue to trigger
deep convection capable of producing heavy rain across the western
Caribbean and parts of central America through Friday. This will
increase the potential for flash flooding and mudslide, especially
in hilly terrains. In addition, divergent flow aloft will also
increases the chance of strong thunderstorms with dangerous
lightning and gusty winds. The heaviest rainfall is expected to be
near the east of coast of northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala
and Belize. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the
region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along
28W and S of 14N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant
convection is associated with this tropical wave.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is is analyzed with axis along
43W from 15N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W and south of 17N,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The convection related to this wave
is located over the East Pacific waters.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W and south of 19N,
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Aided by divergent flow aloft,
scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails S of
20N between 79W-86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W to 10N29W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 10N40W. The ITCZ resumes W of a
tropical wave near 09N45W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along both sections of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Two surface troughs are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms off the Florida west coast, and at the southern Bay
of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high at the northeastern Gulf
is dominating the rest of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE to E
winds and moderate seas are evident at the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Light to gentle winds with slight seas prevail at the
northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through early next week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
will pulse each evening and night over the next several days
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of
Campeche due to local effects induced by a thermal trough.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected elsewhere through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section about potential heavy
rainfall in the western Caribbean, and the Tropical Waves section
for convection in the entire Caribbean Sea.

Strong with near-gale E winds and rough seas dominate the south-
central basin. Fresh to strong E winds with moderate seas are
elsewhere across the central portion of the basin. Light to
gentle winds and slight seas in moderate NE swell prevail near
Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including
the Windward and Mona Passages.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific
monsoon and the passage of a couple of tropical waves will
continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the
central and SW Caribbean through the end of the week. Winds are
expected to reach near-gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela, with moderate to rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. Strong winds over the
Gulf of Honduras will develop today and continue through the
weekend due to a tighter pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge, and a broad area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific
region, offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

A surface trough near the Bahamas is joining forces with an
upper-level low over Florida to produce scattered moderate
convection off the Florida west coast, and over the Bahamas.
Farther east, another upper-level low near 28N55W is causing
isolated thunderstorms north of 25N between 53W and 60W.

A subtropical ridge extending from a 1027 mb high across 34N32W
to a 1021 mb high near 27N64W is supporting gentle winds with
moderate seas north of 26N between 50W and the Florida-southern
Georgia coast. Farther east, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds
and moderate seas are present north of 26N between 35W and 50W.
To the south from 08N to 26N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser
Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds with moderate to rough
seas are noted. Gentle with moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4
to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region through early next week,
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas S of
25N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds will pulse
late in the afternoons and at night N of Hispaniola through early
next week.

$$
ERA

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323
AXNT20 KNHC 261814
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a couple of tropical waves that are
described below, and abundant tropical moisture over the same
area will continue to enhance the chances for significant showers
and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and across portions
of Central America through at least Fri. This will increase the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly
terrains. According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest
rainfall is expected to be near the northeast coast of Nicaragua
and in northern Honduras during the next couple of days. Please
refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 30W from
04N to 15N, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant
convection is presently occurring with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
18N46W to 12N45W to 02N45W. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Satellite imagery reveals scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 180 nm either side of the wave from 09N
to 12N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 80W south of
17N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is near the northern portion of the wave. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are within 60-90 nm of the wave axis
from 09N to 12N.

A far western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 88W and
south of 20N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. This wave
remains under a region of broad anticyclonic flow that is helping
to sustain numerous moderate to strong convection that are between
this wave and the one near 80W. This convection is occurring from
14N to 21N between 80W-86W. Small clusters of scattered moderate
convection are along and just offshore the coast of Nicaragua,
with similar convection noted just offshore Costa Rica and northern
Panama. This wave is forecast to merge into a broad cyclonic
circulation that is over the eastern Pacific Ocean associated to
Invest-EP95.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N24W and west-southwestward
09N31W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N44W. It resumes
west of a tropical wave near 09N46W and continues to 08N57W.
Aside from convection related to the wave that is along a position
from 18N46W to 12N45W to 02N45W, scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm south of the trough between the coast of Africa and
23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Atlantic high pressure extends westward across the northern Gulf.
A trough is analyzed from near Apalachicola, Florida southward to
25N85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of
27N between 84W and 91W. Both buoy and scatterometer satellite
data indicate light to gentle east winds throughout, except for
east to southeast gentle winds over the far western Gulf. Seas are
in the 2 to 4 ft range.

For the forecast, the high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
through early next week. Fresh to locally strong northeast
to east winds will pulse each evening and night north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local
effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere
through early next wee

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean.

The present pressure gradient is sustaining fresh to strong
trades across the south-central portion of the basin as depicted
in recent scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas with these
winds are 8 to 11 ft. Mostly fresh trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft
are elsewhere across the basin east of 85W, except for seas of 6
to 9 ft in east swell north of 15N. Fresh trades are also in the
Gulf of Honduras with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate east to
southeast winds are west of 85W with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge of high
pressure in the Atlantic and lower pressure in the southwestern
Caribbean that is associated with the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough will support fresh to strong trades across most of the
central and SW Caribbean. Winds are expected to pulse to near-
gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with
moderate to rough seas. Strong winds will develop over the Gulf of
Honduras today and continue through the weekend. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed at 27.5N64W while a 1027 is
analyzed north of the area at 34N30W. A trough extends from near
29N44W to 22N48W. High pressure covers the area north of about
20N and east of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong east winds are
south of 22N between 66W and 73W. Moderate to fresh east winds are
elsewhere south of 24N, except for fresh northeast winds east of
40W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft south of 24N east of the Bahamas and to
3 to 5 ft elsewhere except for lower seas of 3 to 4 ft over
the northwest part of the area and for seas of 3 ft or less west
of the Bahamas including the Straits of Florida.

A mid to upper-level low is located just east of central Florida
as seen in water vapor imagery. At the surface, a trough extends
from 29N79W to the near the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate
convection is from 25N to 30N between 74W and the coast of
Florida. Farther east, an upper-level low dropping south is noted
near 27N58W. Scattered moderate convection associated with this
feature exists from 24N to 29N between 54W and 61W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region through early next week.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail
south of 25N. Fresh to strong east winds will pulse late in the
afternoon and at night north of Hispaniola through early next
week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected elsewhere.

$$
Aguirre

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339
AXNT20 KNHC 261814
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a couple of tropical waves that are
described below, and abundant tropical moisture over the same
area will continue to enhance the chances for significant showers
and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and across portions
of Central America through at least Fri. This will increase the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly
terrains. According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest
rainfall is expected to be near the northeast coast of Nicaragua
and in northern Honduras during the next couple of days. Please
refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 30W from
04N to 15N, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant
convection is presently occurring with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
18N46W to 12N45W to 02N45W. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Satellite imagery reveals scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 180 nm either side of the wave from 09N
to 12N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 80W south of
17N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is near the northern portion of the wave. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are within 60-90 nm of the wave axis
from 09N to 12N.

A far western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 88W and
south of 20N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. This wave
remains under a region of broad anticyclonic flow that is helping
to sustain numerous moderate to strong convection that are between
this wave and the one near 80W. This convection is occurring from
14N to 21N between 80W-86W. Small clusters of scattered moderate
convection are along and just offshore the coast of Nicaragua,
with similar convection noted just offshore Costa Rica and northern
Panama. This wave is forecast to merge into a broad cyclonic
circulation that is over the eastern Pacific Ocean associated to
Invest-EP95.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N24W and west-southwestward
09N31W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N44W. It resumes
west of a tropical wave near 09N46W and continues to 08N57W.
Aside from convection related to the wave that is along a position
from 18N46W to 12N45W to 02N45W, scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm south of the trough between the coast of Africa and
23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Atlantic high pressure extends westward across the northern Gulf.
A trough is analyzed from near Apalachicola, Florida southward to
25N85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of
27N between 84W and 91W. Both buoy and scatterometer satellite
data indicate light to gentle east winds throughout, except for
east to southeast gentle winds over the far western Gulf. Seas are
in the 2 to 4 ft range.

For the forecast, the high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
through early next week. Fresh to locally strong northeast
to east winds will pulse each evening and night north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local
effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere
through early next wee

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean.

The present pressure gradient is sustaining fresh to strong
trades across the south-central portion of the basin as depicted
in recent scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas with these
winds are 8 to 11 ft. Mostly fresh trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft
are elsewhere across the basin east of 85W, except for seas of 6
to 9 ft in east swell north of 15N. Fresh trades are also in the
Gulf of Honduras with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate east to
southeast winds are west of 85W with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge of high
pressure in the Atlantic and lower pressure in the southwestern
Caribbean that is associated with the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough will support fresh to strong trades across most of the
central and SW Caribbean. Winds are expected to pulse to near-
gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with
moderate to rough seas. Strong winds will develop over the Gulf of
Honduras today and continue through the weekend. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed at 27.5N64W while a 1027 is
analyzed north of the area at 34N30W. A trough extends from near
29N44W to 22N48W. High pressure covers the area north of about
20N and east of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong east winds are
south of 22N between 66W and 73W. Moderate to fresh east winds are
elsewhere south of 24N, except for fresh northeast winds east of
40W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft south of 24N east of the Bahamas and to
3 to 5 ft elsewhere except for lower seas of 3 to 4 ft over
the northwest part of the area and for seas of 3 ft or less west
of the Bahamas including the Straits of Florida.

A mid to upper-level low is located just east of central Florida
as seen in water vapor imagery. At the surface, a trough extends
from 29N79W to the near the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate
convection is from 25N to 30N between 74W and the coast of
Florida. Farther east, an upper-level low dropping south is noted
near 27N58W. Scattered moderate convection associated with this
feature exists from 24N to 29N between 54W and 61W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region through early next week.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail
south of 25N. Fresh to strong east winds will pulse late in the
afternoon and at night north of Hispaniola through early next
week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected elsewhere.

$$
Aguirre

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177
AXNT20 KNHC 261816
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a couple of tropical waves that are
described below, and abundant tropical moisture over the same
area will continue to enhance the chances for significant showers
and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and across portions
of Central America through at least Fri. This will increase the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly
terrains. According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest
rainfall is expected to be near the northeast coast of Nicaragua
and in northern Honduras. Please refer to the local Weather
Services in the region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 30W from
04N to 15N, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant
convection is presently occurring with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
18N46W to 12N45W to 02N45W. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Satellite imagery reveals scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 180 nm either side of the wave from 09N
to 12N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 80W south of
17N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is near the northern portion of the wave. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are within 60-90 nm of the wave axis
from 09N to 12N.

A far western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 88W and
south of 20N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. This wave
remains under a region of broad anticyclonic flow that is helping
to sustain numerous moderate to strong convection that are between
this wave and the one near 80W. This convection is occurring from
14N to 21N between 80W-86W. Small clusters of scattered moderate
convection are along and just offshore the coast of Nicaragua,
with similar convection noted just offshore Costa Rica and northern
Panama. This wave is forecast to merge into a broad cyclonic
circulation that is over the eastern Pacific Ocean associated to
Invest-EP95.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N24W and west-southwestward
09N31W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N44W. It resumes
west of a tropical wave near 09N46W and continues to 08N57W.
Aside from convection related to the wave that is along a position
from 18N46W to 12N45W to 02N45W, scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm south of the trough between the coast of Africa and
23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Atlantic high pressure extends westward across the northern Gulf.
A trough is analyzed from near Apalachicola, Florida southward to
25N85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of
27N between 84W and 91W. Both buoy and scatterometer satellite
data indicate light to gentle east winds throughout, except for
east to southeast gentle winds over the far western Gulf. Seas are
in the 2 to 4 ft range.

For the forecast, the high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
through early next week. Fresh to locally strong northeast
to east winds will pulse each evening and night north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local
effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere
through early next wee

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean.

The present pressure gradient is sustaining fresh to strong
trades across the south-central portion of the basin as depicted
in recent scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas with these
winds are 8 to 11 ft. Mostly fresh trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft
are elsewhere across the basin east of 85W, except for seas of 6
to 9 ft in east swell north of 15N. Fresh trades are also in the
Gulf of Honduras with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate east to
southeast winds are west of 85W with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge of high
pressure in the Atlantic and lower pressure in the southwestern
Caribbean that is associated with the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough will support fresh to strong trades across most of the
central and SW Caribbean. Winds are expected to pulse to near-
gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with
moderate to rough seas. Strong winds will develop over the Gulf of
Honduras today and continue through the weekend. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed at 27.5N64W while a 1027 is
analyzed north of the area at 34N30W. A trough extends from near
29N44W to 22N48W. High pressure covers the area north of about
20N and east of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong east winds are
south of 22N between 66W and 73W. Moderate to fresh east winds are
elsewhere south of 24N, except for fresh northeast winds east of
40W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft south of 24N east of the Bahamas and to
3 to 5 ft elsewhere except for lower seas of 3 to 4 ft over
the northwest part of the area and for seas of 3 ft or less west
of the Bahamas including the Straits of Florida.

A mid to upper-level low is located just east of central Florida
as seen in water vapor imagery. At the surface, a trough extends
from 29N79W to the near the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate
convection is from 25N to 30N between 74W and the coast of
Florida. Farther east, an upper-level low dropping south is noted
near 27N58W. Scattered moderate convection associated with this
feature exists from 24N to 29N between 54W and 61W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region through early next week.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail
south of 25N. Fresh to strong east winds will pulse late in the
afternoon and at night north of Hispaniola through early next
week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected elsewhere.

$$
Aguirre

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442
AXNT20 KNHC 262303
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a couple of tropical waves that are
described below, and abundant tropical moisture over the same area
will continue to enhance the chances for significant showers and
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and across portions of
Central America through at least tomorrow. This will increase the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly
terrain. According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest
rainfall is expected to be near the northeast coast of Nicaragua
and in northern Honduras. Please refer to the local Weather
Services in the region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W from 04N
to 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
presently occurring with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
18N48W to 03N46W. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Satellite
imagery reveals scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from
10N-13N between 45W-51W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 81W south of
17N. It is moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 11N-20N between 82W-85W.

A far western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 88W and
south of 20N. It is moving westward around 5-10 kt. While there is
no deep convection over water associated with this wave numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted over much of the
Yucatan of Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras. This wave is forecast
to merge into a broad cyclonic circulation that is over the
eastern Pacific Ocean associated with Invest-EP95.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N17W and continues southwestward to 09N31W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to 09N46W. It resumes west of a tropical
wave near 09N48W and continues to 08N56W. Aside from convection
related to the wave that is along 18N48W to 03N46W, scattered
moderate convection is north of 04N east of 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak high pressure ridge extends from the Atlantic to over the
SE United States. This is promoting only gentle winds across the
Gulf this afternoon. Seas are 1-3 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 22N west of 95W and north of 29N east
of 86W.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
through early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
will pulse each evening and night north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to a locally tighter
pressure gradient induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere
through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and
Central America.

A moderate pressure gradient exists between the Bermuda High
north of the Caribbean along with a 1010 mb Colombian Low along
the Pacific monsoon trough. This is promoting fresh to strong
trades over the central Caribbean along with seas 7-10 ft.
Elsewhere, the trades are moderate with seas 4-6 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 11N-20N between 82W-85W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E
Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across
most of the central and SW Caribbean. Winds will pulse to near-
gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with
moderate to rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of
Honduras will continue through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed at 27N64W, while a 1026 mb
high is analyzed north of the area at 34N30W. South of these
highs, trades are gentle to moderate, except fresh to strong just
north of Hispaniola, through the Canary Islands, and nearshore to
Western Sahara and Mauritania. Seas are 3-7 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is noted over the Bahamas from 23N-29N between 73W-80W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region through early next week.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S
of 25N. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse late in the afternoon
and at night N of Hispaniola through early next week. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
Landsea/Levine

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052
AXNT20 KNHC 270559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a couple of tropical waves that are
described below, and abundant tropical moisture over the same area
will continue to enhance the chances for heavy rain and strong
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and across portions of
Central America through at least Friday. This will increase the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly
terrain. According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest
rainfall is expected to be near the northeast coast of Nicaragua
and in northern Honduras. Please refer to the local Weather
Services in the region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 15N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is seen
near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 17N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present from 11N to 13N between 47W and 51W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 16N southward
across western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms are evident near the coast southeastern Nicaragua
and northeastern Honduras.

Another tropical wave is near 89W from the northern Yucatan
Peninsula southward across Guatemala and El Salvador into the
East Pacific. It is moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered heavy
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring at the Gulf of
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters into the Atlantic along the coastal border
of Senegal and Gambia, then curves southwestward to 09N31W. An
ITCZ extends westward from 08N35W to 08N38W, and from 08N51W to
the northern coast of Guyana near Georgetown. Widely scattered
moderate convection is found near and up to 120 nm north of the
first ITCZ segment between 43W and 46W, and the entire second
ITCZ segment.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near Panama and
northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Two surface troughs are generating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the northeastern Gulf, and off Tampico,
Mexico. Otherwise, modest ridging is dominating the eastern Gulf
with light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms related to two
tropical waves over the Yucatan Peninsula and in the far
northwestern Caribbean are forecast to shift west-northwestward
into the Bay of Campeche Sat or Sat night. The northern portion of
the wave could induce a low pressure to form in the Bay of
Campeche. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
through early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
will pulse each evening and night north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to a locally tighter
pressure gradient induced by a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and
Central America.

Convergent trade winds are creating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the lee of western Cuba and near the
Cayman Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea.
Tight gradient between the Bermuda High near 28N66W and lower
pressure at northern Colombia are sustaining strong to locally
near-gale easterly winds and 9 to 11 ft seas at the south-central
basin. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are
noted at the north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4
ft seas in moderate NE swell are seen near Costa Rica and Panama.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the two tropical waves mentioned in the
Tropical Waves sections will sustain scattered deep convection
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall over the far western
basin and adjacent portions of Central America into the weekend.
Also, fresh to strong trades across the central basin will last
into early next week. In particular, winds will pulse to near-gale
force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with moderate to
rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds over the Gulf of
Honduras will continue through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low near 27N61W is triggering widely scattered
moderate convection north of 26N between 58W and 65W. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A
subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 mb Azores High
across 31N40W to a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 28N66W. These
features are supporting light to gentle winds with 3 to 4 ft seas
north of 25N between 35W and the coast of northeastern Florida and
southern Georgia. For the Atlantic waters from 09N to 25N between
35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate with locally fresh
NE to E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in moderate mixed swells
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned Bermuda High and
associated ridge will prevail across the region into the middle
of next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas
will prevail south of 25N. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse
from late afternoons into the overnights north of Hispaniola
through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$

Chan

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943
AXNT20 KNHC 271016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a couple of tropical waves that are
described below and abundant tropical moisture will continue to
enhance heavy rain and strong thunderstorms over the far western
Caribbean and across portions of Central America into tonight.
This will increase the potential for flash flooding and mudslides,
especially in hilly terrain. According to the latest model
guidance, the heaviest rainfall is expected to be near the
northeast coast of Nicaragua and in northern Honduras. Please
refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 15N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is seen
near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 17N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present from 11N to 14N between 47W and 52W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 16N southward
across western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving
west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is evident near the coast southeastern Nicaragua and northeastern
Honduras.

Another tropical wave is along 90W from the northern Yucatan
Peninsula southward across Guatemala and El Salvador into the East
Pacific. It is moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is association with this wave is
confined to the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters into the Atlantic at the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W, then curves SW to 09N31W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N37W to 08N46W and from 08N54W to 08N60W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection S of 10N near the coast of Panama
and Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Convection associated with a trough just offshore the Florida
coast has dissipated overnight. Scattered moderate convection is
along a trough that extends just offshore the Mexican coast from
Tampico to Veracruz. Otherwise, modest ridging is dominating most
of the Gulf inducing light to gentle SE winds. SE are 2 to 4 ft,
except less than 2 ft in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a tropical wave will approach the Yucatan
Peninsula today and tonight, bringing showers and thunderstorms
that will move WNW into the Bay of Campeche Sat or Sat night. Low
pressure may then form of this convection remains over water.
Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through
early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse
each evening and night north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the
eastern Bay of Campeche due to a locally tighter pressure gradient
induced by a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and
Central America.

Convergent trade winds are creating scattered moderate convection
in the lee of western Cuba and near the Cayman Islands. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections information on
additional convection in the basin. A tight pressure gradient
between the Bermuda High centered near 28N66W and lower pressure
along the northern coast of South America is sustaining strong to
near gale force east winds and 8 to 11 ft seas across the south-
central Caribbean. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft
dominate the north-central basin. For the rest of the basin,
moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will continue to
support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and SW
Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to near- gale
force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with rough seas.
Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will continue
through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low near 27N62W is triggering a cluster of moderate
convection from 26N to 30N between 60W and 65W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections above for
information on additional convection in the basin. Ridging
dominates most of the basin, anchored by the 1028 mb Azores High
centered near 34N30W and a weaker 1021 mb Bermuda High near
28N66W. This is leading to light to gentle winds N of 25N and W of
35W. To the S and E, moderate to fresh trades dominate, with some
locally strong NE winds funneling through the Canary Islands.
Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the tradewind belt and around the Canary
Islands, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region into the middle of next week.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S
of 25N. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons
into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
Konarik

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356
AXNT20 KNHC 271803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a tropical wave that is described below
and abundant tropical moisture will continue to enhance heavy rain
across portions of Central America into tonight. This will
increase the potential for flash flooding and mudslides,
especially in hilly terrain. According to the latest model
guidance, the heaviest rainfall is expected to be near the
northeast coast of Nicaragua and in northern Honduras.
Additionally, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of
Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days due to the recent formation of a broad area of low pressure
that is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Please refer to the local
Weather Services in the region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa per
the latest satellite imagery animation, further supported by the
SUNY-Albany Trough Diagnostics 700 mb potential vorticity
guidance. It annalist along 18W from 05N to 19N, and is moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
west of the wave from 09N to 12N. A dry and very stable
environment surrounds the wave north of 12N.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 36W from 04N
to 16N, moving westward at about 10 kt. This wave is also
not accompanied by significant convection.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
20N55W to 12N54W to inland French Guiana. It is moving westward
at 15-20 kt. Recent satellite imagery shows that scattered
moderate convection has increased within 120 nm either side
of the wave axis from 10N to 12N. Similar convection is east
of the wave axis within 30 nm either side of line from 13N53W to
12N49W to 10N43W. A recent scatterometer satellite data pass
captured a subtle northeast to southeast wind shift across the
wave axis. The winds are of moderate to fresh speeds north of
13N and of gentle to moderate speeds south of 13N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has recently moved inland
Central America with is axis along 84W, reaching well into the
eastern Pacific near 05N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. This
wave is one of the players of the Special Features significant
rainfall event. Numerous strong convection is present from 15N to
20N between 82W and 86W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
just east of the wave axis from 12N to 14N.

The wave that was previously along 90W has been absorbed into
a broad area of low pressure that is in the eastern Pacific Ocean
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec associated with Invest-EP95.
cyclonic

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters into the Atlantic through the
coast of The Gambia near 13N17W and continues southwestward to
19N20W and west-southwestward to 07N28W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ and continues to 07N35W. It resumes west of a
tropical wave near 08N38W to 09N53W. Another segment extends
from 08N54W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm north of the trough between 22W-28W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection S of 10N near the coast of Panama
and Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western extension of rather modest Atlantic high pressure
extends westward across the northern Gulf. The present gradient
is allowing for generally light to gentle east to southeast winds
north of 24N, and gentle to moderate east winds south of 24N
except for light to variable winds south of 23N west of 95W.
Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range, except for 2 ft or less in the
NE Gulf.

Satellite imagery shows an area of disorganized scattered
moderate convection over the SW Gulf south of 21N between 94W and
96W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf
north of 26N between 83W and 87W due to a weak surface trough
that extends from near 30N84W to 26N86W and a mid to upper-level
low seen over the general area of northern Florida.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure has formed over
the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. Some additional
development is possible over the next few days when the system
moves into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. By early next week
this system should move inland over Mexico, ending its chances of
additional development. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate
the Gulf waters through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and
Central America.

A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean due
to the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is sustaining fresh
to strong trades over most of the central Caribbean, except strong
to near gale-force trades south of 13N between 74W and 76W. Recent scatterometer satellite data passes captures these winds. Seas
with these winds are in the 8 to 12 ft range. The scatterometer
satellite data passes also indicate fresh to strong trades over
the north-central sections of the basin between 72W and 85W. Seas
with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in east swell. Moderate to fresh
trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the tropical wave in the western Caribbean will
contribute to scattered convection along with locally heavy
rainfall across the far western basin through Sat. The pressure
gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in the
southwestern Caribbean associated with the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across most of
the central and southwestern Caribbean through early next week.
Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf
of Honduras will continue through the weekend

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high center is analyzed at 28N68W while stronger high
pressure of 1029 mb is north of the area near 34N29W. High
pressure covers the area north of 19N. Moderate to fresh trades
are south of 23N, with the exception of fresh to strong speeds
along the coast of Hispaniola extending north to 21N per latest
scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with
these winds. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 23N
west of 64W, and light to gentle southeast to south winds are
north of 23N between 46W and 64W. Gentle to moderate northeast
winds are east of 46W, except for fresh to strong northeast winds
in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of
23N, except for higher seas of 5 to 8 ft in the vicinity of the
Canary Islands.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted offshore and
along the Florida north of 26N. This activity reaches eastward
to near 77W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will remain over
the region into the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh east
to southeast winds and moderate seas will continue south of 25N.
Fresh to strong east winds will pulse from late afternoons into
the overnights north of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
Aguirre

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083
AXNT20 KNHC 271809
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a tropical wave that is described below
and abundant tropical moisture will continue to enhance heavy rain
across portions of Central America into tonight. This will
increase the potential for flash flooding and mudslides,
especially in hilly terrain. According to the latest model
guidance, the heaviest rainfall is expected to be near the
northeast coast of Nicaragua and in northern Honduras.
Additionally, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of
Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days due to the recent formation of a broad area of low pressure
that is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Please refer to the local
Weather Services in the region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa per
the latest satellite imagery animation, further supported by the
SUNY-Albany Trough Diagnostics 700 mb potential vorticity
guidance. It annalist along 18W from 05N to 19N, and is moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
west of the wave from 09N to 12N. A dry and very stable
environment surrounds the wave north of 12N.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 36W from 04N
to 16N, moving westward at about 10 kt. This wave is also
not accompanied by significant convection.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
20N55W to 12N54W to inland French Guiana. It is moving westward
at 15-20 kt. Satellite imagery shows that scattered moderate
convection has increased within 120 nm either side of the wave
axis from 10N to 12N. Similar convection is east of the wave
axis within 30 nm either side of line from 13N53W to 12N49W to
10N43W. A recent scatterometer satellite data pass captured a
subtle northeast to southeast wind shift across the wave axis.
The winds are of moderate to fresh speeds north of 13N and of
gentle to moderate speeds south of 13N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has recently moved inland
Central America with is axis along 84W, reaching well into the
eastern Pacific near 05N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. This
wave is one of the players of the Special Features significant
rainfall event. Numerous strong convection is present from 15N to
20N between 82W and 86W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
just east of the wave axis from 12N to 14N.

The wave that was previously along 90W has been absorbed into
a broad area of low pressure that is in the eastern Pacific Ocean
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec associated with Invest-EP95.
cyclonic

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters into the Atlantic through the
coast of The Gambia near 13N17W and continues southwestward to
19N20W and west-southwestward to 07N28W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ and continues to 07N35W. It resumes west of a
tropical wave near 08N38W to 09N53W. Another segment extends
from 08N54W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm north of the trough between 22W-28W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection S of 10N near the coast of Panama
and Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western extension of rather modest Atlantic high pressure
extends westward across the northern Gulf. The present gradient
is allowing for generally light to gentle east to southeast winds
north of 24N, and gentle to moderate east winds south of 24N
except for light to variable winds south of 23N west of 95W.
Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range, except for 2 ft or less in the
NE Gulf.

Satellite imagery shows an area of disorganized scattered
moderate convection over the SW Gulf south of 21N between 94W and
96W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf
north of 26N between 83W and 87W due to a weak surface trough
that extends from near 30N84W to 26N86W and a mid to upper-level
low seen over the general area of northern Florida.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure has formed over
the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. Some additional
development is possible over the next few days when the system
moves into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. By early next week
this system should move inland over Mexico, ending its chances of
additional development. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate
the Gulf waters through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and
Central America.

A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean due
to the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is sustaining fresh
to strong trades over most of the central Caribbean, except strong
to near gale-force trades south of 13N between 74W and 76W. Recent scatterometer satellite data passes captures these winds. Seas
with these winds are in the 8 to 12 ft range. The scatterometer
satellite data passes also indicate fresh to strong trades over
the north-central sections of the basin between 72W and 85W. Seas
with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in east swell. Moderate to fresh
trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the tropical wave in the western Caribbean will
contribute to scattered convection along with locally heavy
rainfall across the far western basin through Sat. The pressure
gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in the
southwestern Caribbean associated with the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across most of
the central and southwestern Caribbean through early next week.
Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf
of Honduras will continue through the weekend

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high center is analyzed at 28N68W while stronger high
pressure of 1029 mb is north of the area near 34N29W. High
pressure covers the area north of 19N. Moderate to fresh trades
are south of 23N, with the exception of fresh to strong speeds
along the coast of Hispaniola extending north to 21N per latest
scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with
these winds. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 23N
west of 64W, and light to gentle southeast to south winds are
north of 23N between 46W and 64W. Gentle to moderate northeast
winds are east of 46W, except for fresh to strong northeast winds
in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of
23N, except for higher seas of 5 to 8 ft in the vicinity of the
Canary Islands.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted offshore and
along the Florida north of 26N. This activity reaches eastward
to near 77W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will remain over
the region into the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh east
to southeast winds and moderate seas will continue south of 25N.
Fresh to strong east winds will pulse from late afternoons into
the overnights north of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
Aguirre

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061
AXNT20 KNHC 272350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a tropical wave that is described below
and abundant tropical moisture will continue to enhance heavy rain
across portions of Central America into tonight. This will
increase the potential for flash flooding and mudslides,
especially in hilly terrain. According to the latest model
guidance, the heaviest rainfall is expected to be near the
northeast coast of Nicaragua and in northern Honduras.
Additionally, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of
Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days due to the recent formation of a broad area of low pressure
that is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Please refer to the local
Weather Services in the region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is east of the Cape Verde Islands extending from
06N to 19N, and with axis near 19W, moving westward at 10 kt.
Only isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave due to
the proximity of Saharan dry air.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
13N with axis near 37W, moving westward at about 10 kt. This wave
is also not accompanied by significant convection.

A tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles extending from 06N
to 20N with axis near 56W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 09N to 16N between 49W and 59W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters into the Atlantic through the
coast of Gambia near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N25W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N35W. It
resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N37W to 06N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 22W and 30W.
Similar convection is from 08N to 13N between 41W and 50W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
heavy showers and tstms over the offshore waters of Panama, Costa
Rica and southern Nicaragua.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western extension of the Atlantic high pressure extends
westward across the northern and central Gulf. The present
gradient is allowing for generally gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds E of 87W, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds W
of 92W. A broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. In
addition, the pressure gradient between the ridge and this area of
low pressure is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds off the
northern Yucatan Peninsuala to 24N. Seas are slight to moderate
basin-wide with peak seas of 6 ft where the strongest winds are
off Yucatan.

For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan
Peninsula has the potential for some additional development over
the next few days when the system moves into the Bay of Campeche
this weekend. By early next week this system should move inland
over Mexico, ending its chances of additional development. Otherwise,
a surface ridge will dominate the northern Gulf waters through
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and
Central America.

A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean due
to the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is sustaining fresh
to strong trades over most of the central Caribbean, except strong
to near gale-force trades offshore Colombia S of 13N. Seas with
these winds are in the 8 to 11 ft range. With the development of
a broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula, the
pressure gradient has tighten, thus resulting in the expansion of
fresh to strong E to SE winds over the NW Caribbean, with the
strongest winds ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas there are 7
ft. Fresh to strong winds are ongoing also in the Windward Passage
with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh trades along with seas of 5
to 7 ft are elsewhere in the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan
Peninsula will produce scattered convection along with locally
heavy rainfall across the northwestern basin through Sat. The
strongest convection will produce frequent lightning strikes,
gusty winds, and locally higher seas. Elsewhere, the pressure
gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure in the SW
Caribbean associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough will
support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and SW
Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to near-gale
force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with rough seas.
Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will continue
through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Azores and Bermuda Highs associated ridges covers the entire
subtropical Atlantic waters. Under its influence, light to gentle
variable winds are N of 23N and W of 35W. South of 23N, winds are
maily moderate from the NE to E, except N of Hispaniola where
fresh to strong winds and seas to 6 ft are ongoing. Fresh to
locally strong NE winds are occuring between 35W and the coast of
W Africa with the strongest winds occuring nearby the Canary
Islands. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
along the seaboard of Florida, reaching eastward to near 78W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region into the middle of next week.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S
of 25N. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons
into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
Ramos

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740=20
AXNT20 KNHC 280610
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jun 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America and Bay of Campeche:

The interaction between a tropical wave that is described below
and abundant tropical moisture will continue to enhance heavy rain
across portions of Central America through tonight. In addition, a
broad low pressure system currently over western Campeche State in
the Yucatan Peninsula will track west-northwestward across the=20
Bay of Campeche this weekend, bringing heavy showers and strong=20 thunderstorms to the Mexico coastal area along the Bay of Campeche
Saturday through Sunday night. If this low remains over the Bay=20
of Campeche long enough, there is a medium chance for it to=20
become a tropical depression this weekend. Please refer to the=20
latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane=20
Center at:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=3Datlc&= days=3D2__;!!DZ3fjg!496I3N_kJZcZsLFYc_11kkx7CvGuUylofS4HwazTGX966YLYrqyeCvO= oqo-oxa38uPYxGGNI7PSv-z6XiyBphYUIiwM$ for more
information.

Regardless of development, heavy rain will increase the potential
for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly terrain.=20
According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest rainfall is=20
expected along the east coast of Belize and Guatemala, and the=20
Mexico States of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas. Please=20
refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more=20
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W from just east of
the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Only=20
isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave due to the=20
proximity of Saharan dry air.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 13N southward,
and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 08N to 09N between 38W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles
near 58W from 19N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt.=20
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 18N between=20
50W and 60W, including waters near Barbados.=20

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of=20
Mauritania and Senegal, then reaches southwestward to near 07N24W.
An ITCZ continues westward from 07N24W to 08N38W, and from 08N40W
to 09N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near and
up to 160 nm north of both ITCZ segments.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms over the
Caribbean waters adjacent to Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section regarding the potential=20
for heavy rainfall in Mexico, and tropical development at the Bay=20
of Campeche.

A surface trough near the west coast of Florida is coupling with
a broad upper-level low over southern Georgia to trigger widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the east-central
Gulf. The broad low pressure mentioned in the Special Features
section is causing widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the coast of Campeche State. A modest surface
ridge lingers across the northern Gulf, supporting gentle to
locally moderate SE to S winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the=20
eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh E
to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate
ENE to SE winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure should move=20
inland over eastern Mexico by Monday, ending the chance for
tropical development but rainy weather will continue. For the
northern Gulf, the modest ridge will remain through early next
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section regarding the potential=20
for heavy rainfall over Belize and Guatemala. Refer to the=20
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the Caribbean Sea.=20

A tight pressure gradient exist between a 1022 mb Bermuda high,=20
and lower pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula and the southwestern
Caribbean. This is sustaining strong to near-gale E trades and=20
seas at 9 to 11 ft at the south-central basin. Also, fresh to=20
strong E to ESE trades with 5 to 8 ft seas dominate the north-=20
central, southwestern and northwestern basin west of 83W,
including the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and seas of
2 to 4 ft in moderate NE swell are present near Costa Rica and
Panama. Moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades across most of the=20
central and southwestern Caribbean will persist through early=20
next week. Winds will pulse to near-gale force off Colombia and=20
in the Gulf of Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds=20
over the Gulf of Honduras will continue through the weekend.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Enhanced by a broad upper-leve low over southern Georgia,
convergent southerly winds are generating widely scattered=20
moderate convection off the northeastern and central Florida east=20
coast. Another upper-level low is causing isolated thunderstorms=20
from 23N to 28N between 64W and 71W. Refer to the Monsoon=20
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for=20
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 mb Azores=20
High across another 1025 mb high near 28N45W to a 1022 mb Bermuda=20
High near 28N69W. These features are providing gentle winds with 2
to 4 ft seas in moderate easterly swell north of 25N between 35W=20
and the northeastern Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the
tropical Atlantic from 09N to 25N between 35W and the
Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
and seas of 5 to 8 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.=20

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned subtropical=20
ridge will prevail across the region through the middle of next=20
week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will=20
prevail south of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse=20
from late afternoons into the overnights north of Hispaniola=20
through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to=20
moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$

Chan

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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578=20
AXNT20 KNHC 281017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall Southern Mexico and Bay of Campeche (Invest AL91):
Low pressure of 1010 mb centered inland over Mexico near 18N92W is
producing convection mainly over Mexico and northern Central
America, with scattered convection also over the Bay of Campeche.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are also present over the eastern
Bay of Campeche and extend northward offshore the NW Yucatan
Peninsula. This broad low pressure will emerge off the SW Yucatan
Peninsula this morning into the Bay of Campeche. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this low and some tropical
development is possible this weekend as the system moves WNW. A
tropical depression may form before the system moves inland over
eastern Mexico Monday. There is a medium chance of tropical
formation over the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, heavy
rain is possible over southern and eastern Mexico along with
adjacent parts of the Gulf, along with frequent lightning and
locally gusty winds. There is also potential for flash flooding
and mudslides, particularly in hilly terrain. The heaviest
rainfall is forecast in the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis
Potosi and Tamaulipas. Please refer to the local Weather Services
in the region for more information on flooding and heavy rainfall
potential. For more information on possible tropical development
of this system, please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-xHv6T5HQT= CnvdJYNFnA9APWnhRpKWC4mRIBljL74NOWX_iULmOW4EPBJfClc4IBJDhyNBJcF6tzJA77YxaE6= eIH9PM$ .

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave axis extends along 23W across the
Cabo Verde Islands from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in association with this
wave from 07N to 12N between 20W and 25W.=20

Another east Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 41W from 13N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 07N to 10N between 38W and 43W.=20

An Atlantic tropical wave axis is moving into the Lesser Antilles
along 60W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 55W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough extends from the Senegalese coast near 19N16W
SW to 07N24W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N24W to 08N38W and
from 08N43W to 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 90 nm N of the ITCZ.=20

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection S of 10N in=20
Caribbean waters offshore Colombia and eastern Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
low pressure (Invest AL91) that will bring heavy rain to portions
of the SW Gulf and adjacent portions of SW Mexico and has a
potential for tropical development this weekend.=20

Convection associated with a surface trough that extends offshore
the Florida Peninsulas has mostly dissipated overnight. A modest=20
surface ridge lingers across the northern Gulf, supporting gentle
SE winds across most of the basin, with seas of 3 ft or less. For
the south-central and SW Gulf, moderate to fresh winds are
increasing in association with the aforementioned low pressure,
and seas have build to 3 to 5 ft.=20

For the forecast, aside from the impacts of the low pressure,
Invest AL91, a surface ridge will dominate the northern Gulf=20
waters through early next week.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for information on=20
convection in the Caribbean Sea. A tight pressure gradient exists
between a 1022 mb Bermuda high centered well NE of the area and=20
lower pressure over Central and South America. This is sustaining
strong to near- gale E trades and seas at 9 to 11 ft at the=20
south-central and SW basin. Also, fresh to locally strong E trades
with 5 to 8 ft seas dominate the north-central basin, Windward
Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to locally=20
fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate.=20

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will
continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the=20
central and SW Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse
to near- gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela,=20
with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras=20
will continue through the weekend.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convection offshore Florida has diminished overnight, leaving the
only showers and thunderstorms in the basin associated with
tropical waves or the ITCZ. Details on this activity can be viewed
in the above Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections. The
basin continues to be dominated by low-level ridging, anchored by
a 1027 mb Azores high centered 32N30W and a weak 1022 Bermuda high
near 28N70W. This is leading to widespread light to gentle winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas N of 24N. To the south, moderate to fresh
trades and 5 to 8 ft seas dominate.=20

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated=20
ridge will prevail across the region into late next week. Moderate
to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N.=20
Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons=20
into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to=20
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
Konarik

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630=20
AXNT20 KNHC 281017
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall Southern Mexico and Bay of Campeche (Invest AL91):
Low pressure of 1010 mb centered inland over Mexico near 18N92W is
producing convection mainly over Mexico and northern Central
America, with scattered convection also over the Bay of Campeche.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are also present over the eastern
Bay of Campeche and extend northward offshore the NW Yucatan
Peninsula. This broad low pressure will emerge off the SW Yucatan
Peninsula this morning into the Bay of Campeche. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this low and some tropical
development is possible this weekend as the system moves WNW. A
tropical depression may form before the system moves inland over
eastern Mexico Monday. There is a medium chance of tropical
formation over the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, heavy
rain is possible over southern and eastern Mexico along with
adjacent parts of the Gulf, along with frequent lightning and
locally gusty winds. There is also potential for flash flooding
and mudslides, particularly in hilly terrain. The heaviest
rainfall is forecast in the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis
Potosi and Tamaulipas. Please refer to the local Weather Services
in the region for more information on flooding and heavy rainfall
potential. For more information on possible tropical development
of this system, please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7GMSUNjiVX= tUOZ5hcKGDGbTgXu5dZxgsRvVvbA4V4pN-10jjOI-3njmqFdsQqnPqy8EiAUo6ZH4NavZYalgLb= R67IxE$ .

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave axis extends along 23W across the
Cabo Verde Islands from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in association with this
wave from 07N to 12N between 20W and 25W.=20

Another east Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 41W from 13N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 07N to 10N between 38W and 43W.=20

An Atlantic tropical wave axis is moving into the Lesser Antilles
along 60W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 55W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough extends from the Senegalese coast near 19N16W
SW to 07N24W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N24W to 08N38W and
from 08N43W to 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 90 nm N of the ITCZ.=20

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection S of 10N in=20
Caribbean waters offshore Colombia and eastern Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
low pressure (Invest AL91) that will bring heavy rain to portions
of the SW Gulf and adjacent portions of SW Mexico and has a
potential for tropical development this weekend.=20

Convection associated with a surface trough that extends offshore
the Florida Peninsulas has mostly dissipated overnight. A modest=20
surface ridge lingers across the northern Gulf, supporting gentle
SE winds across most of the basin, with seas of 3 ft or less. For
the south-central and SW Gulf, moderate to fresh winds are
increasing in association with the aforementioned low pressure,
and seas have build to 3 to 5 ft.=20

For the forecast, aside from the impacts of the low pressure,
Invest AL91, a surface ridge will dominate the northern Gulf=20
waters through early next week.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for information on=20
convection in the Caribbean Sea. A tight pressure gradient exists
between a 1022 mb Bermuda high centered well NE of the area and=20
lower pressure over Central and South America. This is sustaining
strong to near- gale E trades and seas at 9 to 11 ft at the=20
south-central and SW basin. Also, fresh to locally strong E trades
with 5 to 8 ft seas dominate the north-central basin, Windward
Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to locally=20
fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate.=20

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will
continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the=20
central and SW Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse
to near- gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela,=20
with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras=20
will continue through the weekend.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convection offshore Florida has diminished overnight, leaving the
only showers and thunderstorms in the basin associated with
tropical waves or the ITCZ. Details on this activity can be viewed
in the above Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections. The
basin continues to be dominated by low-level ridging, anchored by
a 1027 mb Azores high centered 32N30W and a weak 1022 Bermuda high
near 28N70W. This is leading to widespread light to gentle winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas N of 24N. To the south, moderate to fresh
trades and 5 to 8 ft seas dominate.=20

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated=20
ridge will prevail across the region into late next week. Moderate
to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N.=20
Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons=20
into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to=20
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
Konarik

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364
AXNT20 KNHC 111627
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jun 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are seen near the
southern portion of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are evident near
the southern portion of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10 kt. The southern portion is enhancing
convection over Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection
is evident from 04N to 10N and east of 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coast of
Texas is also affecting the nearshore waters. Elsewhere, generally
dry conditions prevail. The pressure gradient between the ridge
over the central Atlantic and lower pressures over Mexico support
moderate to fresh SE winds west of 90W. Seas in these waters are
2-4 ft (1-1.5 m). Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
prevalent in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across the Gulf
region through the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast
to east winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of
the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a
trough develops daily and moves westward. Winds are expected to
briefly reach strong speeds at times. Moderate to fresh southeast
winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south-central
Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the
basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on the wave
moving across the eastern Caribbean.

The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
from NW Colombia to northern Costa Rica and it is the source for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW
Caribbean Sea. Low-level convergence is producing a few showers
in the SE Caribbean, while generally drier conditions are noted
elsewhere due to a plume of Saharan dust.

A strong subtropical ridge centered north of the islands forces
fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds across much of the
Caribbean, especially south of 19N. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-9 (1.5-3
m), with the highest seas occurring near 13N77W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, a surface ridge N of the region combined with the
Colombian low will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to
rough seas across most of the central Caribbean, spreading
westward through the week as a tropical wave moves through the
basin. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Gulf of
Honduras during the evening and overnight hours. Moderate to
fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba
where gentle to moderate winds are expected. E of the Lesser
Antilles, fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas will
persist through al least early Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

A 1028 mb subtropical ridge centered a few hundred miles east of
Bermuda dominates the entire tropical Atlantic. Fresh to
occasionally strong easterly winds are noted south of 25N and
west of 55W, along with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate easterly
winds and slight to moderate seas are present in the remainder of
the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and rough seas are present south of 18N and west of 40W.
Satellite- derived wind data from a few hours ago showed fresh to
strong N winds from 15N to 28N and east of 30W. Seas in the area
described are 5-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will
dominate the forecast area this week producing a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow. This system will move westward over
the next few days while weakening. Pulsing fresh to strong winds
are expected N of Hispaniola to about 22N each late afternoon and
night through at least Fri night.

$$
Delgado

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409
AXNT20 KNHC 120930
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jun 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic just west of the Cape Verde
Islands, extending from 05N to 17N with axis near 28W, moving
westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is seen near this
wave.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles, extending from 06N to
17N with axis near 57W, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from 06N to 16N between 50W
and 60W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean, south of Hispaniola,
with axis near 72W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the Dominican
Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W, then curves
southwestward to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N30W
to 05N41W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south
of the monsoon trough from 04N to 11N between 08W and 31W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident elsewhere from 02N to 10N between
31W and 50W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
numerous moderate to strong convection and tstms over the offshore
waters of Costa Rica, Panama, southern Nicaragua and NW Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends SW into the Gulf and
continues to provide moderate to fresh ESE winds over the western
half of the basin and gentle to moderate SE winds elsewhere E of
90W. Over the Bay of Campeche, a surface trough is generating
heavy showers and tstms. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to
locally strong winds in this area of convection. Wave heights are
3 to 6 ft west of 90W while altimeter data show 1 to 3 ft seas
across the eastern basin.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain across the Gulf
through the next several days. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
are expected each afternoon and evening, north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough
develops daily and moves westward. Winds are expected to briefly
reach strong speeds at times. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
forecast elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf, with
gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda High continues to support fresh trade winds over the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea along with moderate to rough
seas. Moderate to fresh easterlies and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
elsewhere across the SW and NW basin, including the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in northern
South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and moderate to
rough seas over most of the central and west-central basin
through early next week. Winds will pulse and reach fresh to
strong near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight
hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected Mon and Mon
night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in
the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are expected
through early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the
Tropical North Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate
to rough seas with these winds will subside late Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda High of 1027 mb and its associated ridge dominates
the entire subtropical Atlantic waters and extends into the
tropics to about 14N. Mostly gentle to moderate NE to E winds are
across the subtropical waters between 30W and 65W. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds are elsewhere W of 65W, except for moderate
to fresh in the Great Bahama Bank, approaches of the Windward
Passage and N of Hispaniola. Seas are moderate across these
waters. Between the NW coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands,
winds are moderate to fresh from the NE and seas are 5 to 8 ft.
Lastly, fresh trades between 45W and the Lesser Antilles support 7
to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high and related
subtropical ridge will be the main feature controlling the wind
regime throughout the region through Mon night. Pulsing fresh to
strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N during
each late afternoon and at night through early next week.

$$
Ramos

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169
AXNT20 KNHC 121649
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the
southern portion of the wave axis. The northern portion is under a
plume of Saharan dust suppressing any thunderstorm activity.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 12N and between 52W and 64W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 04N38W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N38W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 02N to 12N and east of 41W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An outflow boundary is moving across the offshore waters of SE and
central Texas. This is associated with strong thunderstorms over
the lone star state. Mariners in the area should be aware of gusty
winds, frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas. Low-level
convergence is supporting a few showers in the western Gulf
waters, especially off northern Veracruz and southern Tamaulipas.

The weak pressure gradient results in moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds west of 90W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft (1-2
m). Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are
present.

For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across the
Gulf through the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast
to east winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of
the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a
trough develops daily and moves westward. Winds are expected to
briefly reach strong speeds at times. Moderate to fresh
southeast winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and
south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the
remainder of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
from northern Colombia to southern Nicaragua and it is the source
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW
Caribbean Sea. A few showers are also noted in the SE Caribbean,
while generally drier conditions are present elsewhere.

A strong subtropical ridge centered north of the islands forces
fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds across much of the
Caribbean, especially south of 19N. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-9 (1.5-3
m), with the highest seas occurring near 14N75W. Buoy 42058 near
14N75W is currently reporting 9 ft (3 m). Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of
the basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in
northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and
moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh
to strong speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and
overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected Mon
and Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere,
except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are
expected through early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain
over the Tropical N Atlantic zones through early next week.
Moderate to rough seas with these winds will subside through this
evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive 1026 mb subtropical ridge centered east of Bermuda
dominates the entire tropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
supports fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 23N
and between 65W and 75W, along with moderate seas. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong
easterly winds south of 20N and west of 50W. Seas in these waters
are 6-9 ft (2-3 m). Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and
moderate seas are evident off the coast of Africa, north of 19N.
Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas found
north of the monsoon trough to 27N and east of 35W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main
feature controlling the wind regime throughout the region through
Mon night. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected north of
Hispaniola to near 22N during each late afternoon and at night
through early next week.

$$
Delgado

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029
AXNT20 KNHC 122325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
seen near the southern portion of the wave axis. The northern
portion, north of 09N, is under a plume of Saharan dust
suppressing any thunderstorm activity.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 12N and between 56W and 64W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are near the trough
axis over the Caribbean, while scattered to numerous convection is
about the axis over much of northwestern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 03.5N39W.
The ITCZ extends from 03.5N39W to the coast of Brazil at 01N50W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from
02N to 10N and between 15W and 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An outflow boundary spawned by strong convection over eastern
Texas has continued to move east and southeastward this afternoon,
and currently reach from central Louisiana across the Atchafalaya
Basin to Corpus Christi, Texas. Afternoon buoy observations showed
wind gusts to near 40 kt as this boundary moved across the Texas
coastal waters. Strong convection continues to propagate southward
along the central Texas coast. Mariners in the area should be
alert for strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and suddenly
higher seas. Scattered showers prevail along the remainder of the
boundary further offshore. Only isolated showers are seen across
the rest of the Gulf this evening.

The Bermuda High extends a broad ridge westward along 30N and
across the northern Gulf states. This is producing moderate to
locally fresh return flow across the western Gulf and light to
gentle return flow across the eastern half. The weak pressure
gradient results in moderate to locally fresh southerly winds west
of 90W. Seas are 3-6 ft across the W half of the basin, except to
7 ft in the central Texas waters, and 3 ft or less across the E
half.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge westward
across the Gulf through the next several days. Moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and evening
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of
Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Winds
there are expected to briefly reach strong speeds at times.
Moderate to fresh southeast winds are forecast elsewhere in the
western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds
across the remainder of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
from northern Colombia across northern Costa Rica and is the
source for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
SW Caribbean Sea south of 10N. Widely scattered showers and
squalls are seen extending from the waters just SW of Jamaica
along80W E-SE to north of the A-B-C Islands. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are entering the SE portion of the basin, ahead
of an approaching tropical wave.

A strong subtropical ridge centered north of the Lesser Antilles
along about 32N is forcing fresh to locally strong easterly trade
winds across much of the Caribbean, especially south of 18N. This
was confirmed by midday scatterometer satellite data. Seas are 6
to 10 ft across the core of the basin, with the highest seas
occurring near 14N75W, where NDBC Buoy 42058 is currently
reporting 10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure N of the basin and relatively lower pressures in the
Caribbean and in northern South America will maintain fresh to
strong trades and moderate to rough seas over most of the central
and west-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds
will pulse to fresh to strong speeds across the Gulf of Honduras
during the evening and overnight hours, with greater coverage of
these winds expected to begin on Mon, with passage of a tropical
wave. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in
the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are expected
through early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the
Tropical N Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to
rough seas with these winds will subside through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive 1026 mb subtropical ridge centered just east of
Bermuda dominates the entire tropical Atlantic. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep
tropics supports fresh to locally strong trade winds south of 23N
and between 65W and 75W, along with moderate seas. Fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds prevail south of 20N and west
of 40W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Fresh to locally strong N winds
and moderate seas are evident off the coast of Africa, north of
19N. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas found
north of the monsoon trough to 27N and east of 35W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
Saharan Air prevail across the trade wind zone of the entire basin
from W Africa to the Caribbean and SE Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main
feature controlling the wind regime across the region into next
week, keeping fairly benign marine conditions. Pulsing fresh to
strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N during
each late afternoon and at night through early next week.

$$
Stripling

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555
AXNT20 KNHC 130852
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jun 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 15N southward,
and moving westward around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is
described below.

A Tropical N Atlantic tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean
Islands at 61.5W from 18N southward, and moving westward at 10 to
15 kt. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
near the wave axis.

A SW Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from SW of Jamaica
southward across western Panama, and moving westward at around 15
kt. Any nearby convection is described below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Mauritania and Senegal at 17N16W, then curves southwestward
to 10N22W to 05N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is flaring up near the monsoon trough from 06N to 10N
and between 17W and 31W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough combined with a
tropical wave discussed above is generating scattered heavy
showers and strong thunderstorms across Caribbean waters near
Costa Rica, Panama and northern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening complex of scattered thunderstorms is leading to
locally higher winds and seas in the NW Gulf. A surface ridge
reaching southwestward from central Florida to near Veracruz,
Mexico is dominating the basin, with gentle to moderate SE to S
winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft in the eastern half of the Gulf,
except 3 to 5 ft in the Straits of Florida, and moderate to
locally fresh SE to S winds and 3 to 6 ft in the western half of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, a complex of scattered thunderstorms moving
into the NW Gulf may produce locally higher winds and seas early.
Atlantic ridging will extend westward across the Gulf through the
next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are
expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily
and moves westward. Winds are expected to briefly reach strong
speeds at times. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are forecast
elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to
moderate winds across the remainder of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1024 mb Bermuda High continues a trade-wind regime over the
entire Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave moving through the SW
Caribbean is supporting scattered thunderstorms south of 13N with
additional activity inland over Colombia and far NW Venezuela.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections for
additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong easterly
winds with 5 to 8 ft seas dominate the central and eastern
portions of the basin. Fresh to strong ESE winds with seas at 5
to 7 ft are present near the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and sea at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and
in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and
moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh
to strong speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and
overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected to
begin on Mon, with passage of a tropical wave. Moderate to fresh
winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where
gentle to moderate winds are expected through early next week.
Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical N Atlantic zones
through early next week. Moderate to rough seas with these winds
will gradually subside through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda and Azores Highs continue to dominate the Atlantic
north of 22N and west of 35W with gentle to moderate ENE to SSE
winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N
to 22N west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6
to 8 ft exist. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the
open waters, except moderate to fresh from offshore northern
Africa through the Canary Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas
are 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells across these remainder waters.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections for
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main
feature controlling the wind regime across the region into next
week, keeping fairly benign marine conditions. Pulsing fresh to
strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N during
each late afternoon and at night through early next week.

$$
Lewitsky

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928
AXNT20 KNHC 140437
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 16N,
moving westward around 10 kt. A few showers are observed near the
southern portion of the wave axis.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south of
15N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are present near the
wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 19N,
extending across eastern Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica and
into the eastern Pacific. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt.
A few showers near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 05N35W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N37W to 02N50W. No significant convection is
evident along the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough extends from the central United States
southward across Texas and NE Mexico, and the adjacent Gulf
waters, and is providing unstable conditions to the east of the
trough. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the
northern Gulf waters. At the surface, the Gulf is mainly
influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical
ridge, extending westward across Florida and into the central Gulf.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in
Mexico result in moderate to fresh SE winds over much of the
western and central Gulf waters. Seas in the area described are
3-5 ft (1-1.5 m). Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
seas prevail.

For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across the
Gulf through the next several days. Fresh northeast to east
winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a
trough develops daily and moves westward. Moderate to fresh
southeast winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south-
central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder
of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on
tropical waves and active convection across the basin.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure centered just east of Bermuda and lower pressure over
Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters
are 5-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the
basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in northern
South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and moderate
to rough seas over most of the central and west-central Caribbean
through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong
speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight
hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected to begin on
Mon, with passage of a tropical wave. Moderate to fresh winds will
prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba and the SW Caribbean
where gentle to moderate winds are expected through early next
week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical N Atlantic
zones through early next week. Moderate to locally rough seas
with these winds will gradually subside through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on
tropical waves and active convection across the basin.

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to
fresh easterly winds south of 25N and west of 40W. Seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). In the eastern Atlantic, moderate
to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft (2-3 m) are noted
north of 20N and east of 22W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main
feature controlling the wind regime across the region into next
week, keeping fairly benign marine conditions. Pulsing fresh to
locally strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N
during each late afternoon and at night through early next week.

$$
Delgado

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816
AXNT20 KNHC 140744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 16N, and
just SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward around 10 kt.
A few showers are observed near the wave axis.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, from the Mona
Passage south of 18N to western Venezuela, moving westward at
10-15 kt. A few showers are observed near the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68.5W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are present near the
wave axis, with a large cluster of deep thunderstorms ahead of the
wave over NW Venezuela and portions of Colombia.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 18N,
extending across eastern Honduras, Nicaragua and western Costa
Rica, into the eastern Pacific. The wave is moving westward at
around 10 kt. A few showers near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N30W to 06N35W, then resumes W of a tropical
wave near 05N39W to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W. No significant
convection is evident along the monsoon trough or ITCZ, except
near the coast of Brazil from the Equator to the ITCZ, W of 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough extends from the central United States
southward across Texas and NE Mexico, and the adjacent Gulf
waters, and is providing unstable conditions to the east of the
trough. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the
northern Gulf waters. At the surface, a surface trough is
analyzed in the SW Gulf west of the Yucatan Peninsula with
scattered thunderstorms south of 22N. The rest of the Gulf is
mainly influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge, extending westward across Florida and into the
central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in Mexico result in moderate to fresh SE winds over much
of the western and central Gulf waters. Seas in the area
described are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas prevail, locally 3-5 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across
the Gulf through the next several days. Fresh northeast to east
winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough
develops daily and moves westward. Moderate to fresh southeast
winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south- central
Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the
basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
extends from Costa Rica into the SW Caribbean through a 1010 mb
low pressure area near 11N81W to the coast of Colombia near
10.5N75W. Scattered thunderstorms are present near the low.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure centered just east of Bermuda and lower pressure over
Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean, and near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these
waters are 5-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas are prevalent, except locally fresh winds through
the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and
in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and
moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh
to strong speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and
overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected to
begin on Mon, with passage of a tropical wave. Moderate to fresh
winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba and the SW
Caribbean where gentle to moderate winds are expected through
early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical
N Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to locally
rough seas with these winds will gradually subside through
tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on
tropical waves present in the basin.

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to
fresh easterly winds south of 22N and west of 40W, including
through the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In
the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and
seas of 6-9 ft are noted north of 20N and east of 20W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main
feature controlling the wind regime across the region into next
week, keeping fairly benign marine conditions. Pulsing fresh to
locally strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N
during each late afternoon and at night through early next week.

$$
Lewitsky

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424
AXNT20 KNHC 141746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W from 15N southward,
moving westward around 10 kt. A few showers are observed near the
south end of wave axis.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W from 15N
southward. A few showers are observed near the south end of the
wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from 17N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed S of 14N between 68W and 73W, with
scattered showers also observed near the wave axis N of 14N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W from 18N southward,
extending across Honduras and Nicaragua into the eastern Pacific.
The wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed in the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N27W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 04N40W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is observed from 04N northward to the
monsoon trough and E of 19W. No other significant convection is
seen in the region.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is observed across areas
S of 16N and W of 76W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough over the central US is aiding in the
development of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the N
Gulf, generally to the N of 26N. A surface trough is analyzed in
the SW Gulf west of the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered
showers near the trough axis. The rest of the Gulf is mainly
influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical
ridge, extending westward across Florida and into the central
Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures
in Mexico result in moderate to fresh SE winds over much of the
western and central Gulf waters. Seas in the area described are
3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas
prevail, locally 3-5 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will
pulse each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops
and treks westward across the region. Otherwise, ridging over the
western Atlantic will maintain moderate S to SE winds and moderate
seas over the central and western Gulf of America through the
middle of next week, with gentle to locally moderate SE winds and
slight to moderate seas in the eastern basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections for details on convection in the Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure centered just east of Bermuda and lower pressure over
Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and central
Caribbean, and near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters
are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are prevalent, except locally fresh winds through the Windward
Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to
pulse across the central and west-central Caribbean through the
middle of next week as a strong pressure gradient prevails between
high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central
Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell are likely in this region. Fresh
to strong E to SE winds will also occur each night and morning in
the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will expand through much of
the northwestern Caribbean early next week after the passage of a
tropical wave. Elsewhere, locally rough seas in E swell will occur
east of the Lesser Antilles and through the passages into the
eastern Caribbean into Sun. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds and
seas are expected across the rest of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to
fresh easterly winds south of 22N and west of 35W, including
through the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In
the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and
seas of 6-9 ft are noted north of 20N and east of 20W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will pulse south of 25N through the middle of next week as
high pressure prevails over the central Atlantic. Locally strong
winds will be possible just north of Hispaniola by the middle of
next week. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds will pulse offshore
of Florida into the middle of next week as low pressure prevails
over the eastern United States. Otherwise, mainly gentle to
locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere
north of 25N through next week.

$$
Adams

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231
AXNT20 KNHC 142313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 15N
southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Isolated showers are
observed along the ITCZ near the south end of wave axis.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W-43w from 15N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are
observed from 07N to 10N between 40W and 43W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from 17N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed S of 15.5N between 69W and
76W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W-88W, from the Gulf
of Honduras southward, extending across Honduras and Nicaragua
into the eastern Pacific. The wave is moving westward at around 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed across eastern
portions of the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 09.5N27W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N34W to 04N41W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 03.5N northward to 11N and E
of 24W. No other significant convection is seen in the region.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean from 10N73W to low pressure 1012 mb near 11.5N78W to
11.5N81W and across northern Costa Rica. Clusters of scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is observed across areas S of
13N and W of 74W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough over the central US extends S-SW into the
north central Gulf, and is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the NE Gulf, generally to the N of 28N. More
widespread and significant convection is occurring across much of
the SE U.S. A surface trough is analyzed in the SW Gulf along
94W-95W with a few showers near the trough axis. The rest of the
Gulf is mainly influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge, extending westward across Florida and into the
N central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in Mexico is resulting in moderate to fresh SE to S winds
over much of the western and central Gulf waters. Seas in the
area described are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas prevail, locally 3-4 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will
pulse each afternoon and evening through next week north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal
trough develops and treks westward across the region. Otherwise,
ridging over the western Atlantic will continue to extend into the
eastern Gulf to maintain moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas
over the central and western Gulf of America through the middle
of next week, with gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight
to moderate seas in the eastern basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections for details on convection in the Caribbean.

An upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic W-SW
through the Windward Passage and into the NE Caribbean west of
Jamaica. This feature is supporting convection over Central
America and near the monsoon trough. A broad Atlantic ridge
continues to dominate the Atlantic basin, extending from the
central Atlantic along 32N westward across Florida. The pressure
gradient between this subtropical ridge and lower pressure over
Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and central
Caribbean, extending westward to just E of the Gulf of Honduras.
Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to
persist across the central and west-central Caribbean through the
middle of next week as a strong pressure gradient prevails
between high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-
central Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell will continue in this
region. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will also occur each night
and morning in the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will expand
through much of the northwestern Caribbean early next week after
the passage of a tropical wave. Elsewhere, locally rough seas in E
swell will occur east of the Lesser Antilles and through the
passages into the eastern Caribbean into Sun. Otherwise, mainly
moderate winds and seas are expected across the rest of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters, centered on 1028 mb high pressure
near 32N54W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh easterly winds south
of 22N and west of 40W, including through the Windward Passage.
Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate
to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted north
of 20N and east of 20W, becoming moderate NE winds between 20W and
40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will persist south of 25N through the middle of next week
as high pressure prevails over the central Atlantic. Locally
strong winds will be possible just north of Hispaniola by the
middle of next week. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds will pulse
offshore of Florida into the middle of next week as low pressure
continues over the eastern United States. Otherwise, mainly
gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected
elsewhere north of 25N through next week.

$$
Stripling

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042
AXNT20 KNHC 150517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jun 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 15N, moving
westward around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this system.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 15N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident near
the trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W, south of 19N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are seen near the wave axis.

The active tropical wave moving across Central America is moved
into the eastern Pacific. See the Eastern Pacific's Tropical
Weather Discussion for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 07N23W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N23W to 07N31W. No significant convection is
observed in association with these features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers across the
northern Gulf of America, while the subtropical ridge dominates
the remainder of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and
seas of 3-5 ft (1-1.5 m) are found in the western half of the Gulf
and off northern Yucatan. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail in the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will pulse
each afternoon and evening through next week north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a
diurnal trough develops and treks westward across the region.
Otherwise, ridging over the western Atlantic will maintain
moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas over the central and
western Gulf of America through the middle of next week, with
gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas
in the eastern basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is
producing a few showers across the SW Caribbean and generally
drier conditions prevail elsewhere. The pressure gradient between
the subtropical ridge located north of the islands and lower
pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong easterly
trade winds in the central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a
recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-9
ft (2-3 m). Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and
moderate seas are noted in the eastern and western Caribbean,
especially south of 20N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to pulse
across the central and west-central Caribbean through the middle
of next week as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high
pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central
Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell are likely in this region.
Fresh to strong E to SE winds will also occur each night and
morning in the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will expand
through much of the northwestern Caribbean early next week after
the passage of a tropical wave. Elsewhere, locally rough seas in
E swell will occur east of the Lesser Antilles and through the
passages into the eastern Caribbean into Sun. Otherwise, mainly
moderate winds and seas are expected across the rest of the
basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N and west of 40W,
including through the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are
4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally
strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft (2-3 m) are noted north of
15N and east of 22W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will pulse south of 25N through the middle of next week as
high pressure prevails over the central Atlantic. Locally strong
winds will be possible just north of Hispaniola by the middle of
next week. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds will pulse offshore
of Florida into the middle of next week as low pressure prevails
over the eastern United States. Otherwise, mainly gentle to
locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere
north of 25N through next week.

$$
Delgado

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457
AXNT20 KNHC 150906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jun 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 15N,
moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44.5W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south the SW tip
of Haiti near 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers
are seen near the wave axis.

The active tropical wave continues to move across Central America
and into the eastern Pacific. See the Eastern Pacific's Tropical
Weather Discussion for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 05N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N26W to 06N33W, then resumes west of the
tropical wave near 06N35W to 07N39W. No significant convection is
observed in association with these features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Other than some widely scattered showers in the eastern Gulf and
near the coast of Veracruz, weather conditions are fairly quiet
with the subtropical ridge dominating the basin. Moderate to
locally fresh SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the
western half of the Gulf and off northern Yucatan. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will
pulse each afternoon and evening through the week north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal
trough develops and treks westward across the region. Otherwise,
ridging over the western Atlantic will maintain moderate S to SE
winds and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf of
America through the middle of the week, with gentle to locally
moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas in the eastern
basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is
producing a few showers across the SW Caribbean and generally
drier conditions prevail elsewhere. The pressure gradient between
the subtropical ridge located north of the islands and lower
pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong easterly
trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are
6-9 ft. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras,
with moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas
elsewhere in the eastern and western Caribbean, especially south
of 20N. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to
pulse across the central and west-central Caribbean through the
middle of the week as a strong pressure gradient prevails between
high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central
Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell are likely in this region. Fresh
to strong E to SE winds will also occur each night and morning in
the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will expand through much of
the northwestern Caribbean early in the week after the passage of
a tropical wave. Elsewhere, locally rough seas in E swell will
occur east of the Lesser Antilles and through the passages into
the eastern Caribbean into today. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds
and seas are expected across the rest of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds south of 22N and west of 40W,
including through the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are
5-8 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong N-NE
winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted north of 16N and east of 21W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will pulse south of 25N through the middle of the week as
high pressure prevails over the central Atlantic. At the same
time, locally strong winds will be possible just north of
Hispaniola. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds will pulse offshore
of Florida into the middle of the week as low pressure prevails
over the eastern United States. Otherwise, mainly gentle to
locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere
north of 25N through the week.

$$
Lewitsky

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591
AXNT20 KNHC 151632
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jun 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south of 15N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, from 19N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted
near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 05N23W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 05N23W
to 07N34W, 07N38W to 06N45W, and 05N48W to the coast of French
Guiana. No significant convection is noted near the boundaries at
this time.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Pop-up showers and tstorms are evident in the NE Gulf waters. A
surface trough, a few showers, and locally fresh SE winds are in
the Bay of Campeche. Ridging associated with subtropical Atlantic
high pressure prevails across the Gulf, supporting gentle to
moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening through the week north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough
develops and treks westward across the region. Otherwise, ridging
over the western Atlantic will maintain moderate S to SE winds and
moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through the
middle of the week, with gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to
moderate seas in the eastern basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is from the coast of Panama north to
14N and west of 80W, including coastal regions of Nicaragua. Fresh
to strong trades were detected by satellite scatterometer data
across the central and southwest Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas in these winds range from 6-9 ft, with peak seas in
the SW Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea, moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to
pulse across the central and west-central Caribbean through the
middle of the week as a strong pressure gradient prevails between
high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central
Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell are likely in this region. Fresh
to strong E to SE winds will also occur each night and morning in
the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will expand through much of
the northwestern Caribbean early in the week after the passage of
a tropical wave. Elsewhere, rough seas in E swell will occur east
of the Lesser Antilles and through the passages into the eastern
Caribbean into today. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds and seas
are expected across the rest of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the tropical Atlantic
waters. Moderate or weaker trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds will
pulse south of 25N through the middle of the week as high pressure
prevails over the central Atlantic. At the same time, strong
winds will be possible just north of Hispaniola. Elsewhere,
moderate S to SW winds will pulse offshore of Florida into the
middle of the week as low pressure prevails over the eastern
United States. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are expected elsewhere north of 25N through the
week.

$$
Mahoney

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748
AXNT20 KNHC 152324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 15N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, from 19N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted behind the wave from 14N to 17N between 73W
and 77W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong
convection is near the monsoon trough from 10N to 13N between 76W
and 81.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 06.5N22W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from
06.5N22W to 06N34W, then from 05.5N38W to 05N46W, and from 04N49W
to the coast of French Guiana at 05N53W. Isolated moderate
convection dots the basin from 03N to the ITCZ between 18W and
48W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Popcorn afternoon convection is intensifying across the NE third
of Gulf waters this evening, with strongest cells offshore of the
western Florida Panhandle. A low level wind surge associated with
an ill defined tropical wave has moved across the Yucatan
Peninsula today with late afternoon convection now developing
along the N and NW coasts. A narrow convergence line of showers
and thunderstorms extends from the western Bay of Campeche along
96W northward to offshore of Tuxpan. The Atlantic surface ridge
extends across central Florida and into the NE Gulf producing
light to gentle winds across NE portions and slight seas, except
near convection. Moderate SE to S winds prevail across the
remainder of the basin, with fresh SE winds across much of the Bay
of Campeche. Seas there are 3 to 5 ft W of 90W.

For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic will
persist westward into the NE and N central Gulf through the
upcoming week to maintain moderate S to SE winds and moderate
seas over the central and western Gulf, with gentle to moderate
SE winds and slight to moderate seas in the eastern basin. Fresh
to strong E to NE winds will pulse each afternoon and evening
through the week north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern
Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward
across the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen across the SW
Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 14N and west of 76W,
and extends inland across Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras,
where strong thunderstorms and heavy rain area occurring. An upper
level trough across the NW basin is supporting moderate convection
aloft from south of Jamaica into interior portions of Hispaniola.
Fresh to strong trades were detected by satellite scatterometer
data across the central and southwest Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas in these winds range from 7-10 ft to the E of 83W
and 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea, moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to
prevail across the central and west-central Caribbean through the
middle of the week as a strong pressure gradient persists between
high pressure to the north along about 30N and low pressure in
the south-central Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell are expected
in this region. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will also occur each
night and morning in the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will
expand through much of the northwestern Caribbean Tue through Wed
night after the passage of a tropical wave. Otherwise, mainly
moderate winds and seas are expected across the rest of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the entire tropical
Atlantic basin, centered on 1027 mb high pressure near 32N40W. The
ridge extends W-SW and across northern Florida, and continues to
transport significant plumes of Saharan Air across the basin waters.
Fresh trade winds prevail S of 22N between 34W and the Bahamas. Moderate
seas of 5 to 7 ft are found across this trade wind zone. wind of
moderate speeds or weaker trades and seas of 5 ft or less prevail
N of 22N. Fresh northerly winds are found N through NE of the Cabo
Verdes, where seas are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds will
persist south of 25N through the middle of the week as high
pressure remains over the central Atlantic. Strong trade winds
will pulse each late afternoon through evening north of
Hispaniola. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds will pulse offshore
of Florida into the middle of the week as low pressure prevails
over the eastern United States. Mainly gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas are expected elsewhere north of 25N through the
week.

$$
Stripling

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231
AXNT20 KNHC 160441
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident near the
trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 05N25W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N25W to 05N37W and then from 05N40W to 04N48W.
A few showers are present within 120 nm of the ITCZ west of 23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft associated with an upper level low in the
northern Gulf continues to generate popcorn showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the northern half of the basin. Similar
convection is also noted in the Bay of Campeche. At the surface, a
ridge extends from the central Atlantic into the Gulf waters,
supporting moderate to fresh E-SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft (1-1.5
m) west of 90W and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening through the week north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough
develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise,
surface ridging extending across most of the basin from the
western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds
and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Fri
night. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are
forecast to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant tropical moisture continues to support scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean Sea and the
Gulf of Honduras, also producing heavy rain in Central America.
The Caribbean is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge
centered over central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
result in strong to near gale-force easterly winds in the south-
central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft (2.5-3.5 m).
The strongest winds and seas are noted off NW Colombia. Fresh to
strong easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the Gulf of
Honduras.

Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are evident
in the north-central, eastern and western Caribbean, especially
south of 20N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and
rough seas to 11 ft are forecast across the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Fri night due to a prevalent Atlantic
subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trades will pulse at night in the Gulf of
Honduras through Tue and then stay strong through Thu while
expanding northward as the Bermuda High builds. Rough seas are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions of the NW
Caribbean Tue night through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the entire tropical
Atlantic basin, extending a ridge from a 1031 mb high pressure
near France to Florida. Latest satellite-derived wind data show
moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 23N and
west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). Moderate
to locally fresh N-NE winds and seas of 4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m) are
found east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds are
forecast south of 25N through Fri night as a broad subtropical
Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north
of Hispaniola at night through the middle of the week as the
Bermuda High builds. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail
offshore of NE Florida through Thu associated with a surface
trough extending along the eastern United States. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere
through the week.

$$
Delgado

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127
AXNT20 KNHC 161700
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
16N with axis near 40W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No
significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
15N with axis near 50.5W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 10N to 12N between
46W and 49W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis near 81W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is ahead and along the wave axis extending over
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continues
southwestward to 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 06N29W to 05N36W
and then from 04N42W to 02N48W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is from 07N to 12N between the west coast of Africa
and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between
22W and 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge continues to extend from the central Atlantic into the
Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and
seas of 3-5 ft west of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Otherwise, a surface
trough is supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
with likely gusty winds and rough seas offshore Veracruz and over
the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is also
depicted over the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening through the week north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough
develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise, surface
ridging extending across most of the basin from the western
Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds and
moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Fri night.
Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are forecast
to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding a tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean.

The Caribbean is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge
centered by a 1026 mb high near 32N37W. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over the SW
Caribbean results in strong to near gale-force easterly winds in
the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean. Seas in these
waters are 8-11 ft. The strongest winds and seas are noted off NW
Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and moderate
seas are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades
are elsewhere, except in the lee side of Cuba where winds are
gentle to moderate.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and
rough seas to 11 ft are forecast across the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Fri night due to a prevalent Atlantic
subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trades will pulse at night in the Gulf of
Honduras through Tue and then stay strong through Thu while
expanding northward as the Bermuda High builds. Rough seas are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions of the NW
Caribbean Tue night through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding tropical waves moving across the central Atlantic.

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the entire subtropical
Atlantic waters, extending from a 1026 mb high pressure near
32N37W. Moderate to fresh easterlies are ongoing across the Great
Bahama Bank, and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola offshores. The
passage of two tropical waves is supporting winds of similar speed
between 42W and the Lesser Antilles with 7-8 ft seas. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are ongoing between the NW coast
of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate or weaker winds are
elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise,
scattered showers are over the Dominican Republic offshores due to
a deep layer trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, Moderate to fresh easterly winds
are forecast south of 25N through Fri night as a broad subtropical
Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north
of Hispaniola at night into late week as the Bermuda High builds.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of NE
Florida through Thu associated with a surface trough extending
along the eastern United States. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week.

$$
KRV

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366
AXNT20 KNHC 170439
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jun 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are observed near the
southern portion of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the
southern portion of the wave. The northern portion is embedded in
a dry Saharan airmass.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of
16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

A SW Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 19N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are evident south of 15N and west of 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 04N40W and then from 04N43W to
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection if present from 01N to 09N
and west of 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft is producing a few showers in the northern half
of the Gulf of America, while drier conditions are prevalent
elsewhere. The subtropical ridge extends into the basin,
supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly waters south of 25N
and east of 95W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft (1-1.5 m). Gentle
to moderate anticyclonic winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening through the next several days north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal
trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise,
surface ridging extending across most of the basin from the
western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds and
moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Sat
night. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are
forecast to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding a tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicates that the extensive
subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea is forcing
strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off northern
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these waters are 8-10
ft (2-3 m). In the rest of the north-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas are
evident. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are
present in the eastern and remainder of the western Caribbean.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and rough
seas to 11 ft are forecast across the central and portions of the
SW Caribbean through Sat night due to a prevalent Atlantic subtropical
ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean. Fresh to strong
trades will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue and
then stay strong through Thu while expanding northward as the Bermuda
High builds. Rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and other
portions of the NW Caribbean Tue night through Wed night. Gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere through
Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding tropical waves moving across the central Atlantic.

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the entire tropical
Atlantic basin, extending a ridge from a 1028 mb high pressure
near France to Florida. Latest satellite-derived wind data show
moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 23N and
west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). Moderate
to locally fresh N-NE winds and seas of 3-6 ft (1-2 m) are found
east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds are
forecast south of 25N through Sat night as a broad subtropical
Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north
of Hispaniola at night into late week as the Bermuda High builds.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of NE
Florida through Thu associated with a surface trough extending
along the eastern United States. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week
and into the weekend.

$$
Delgado

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706
AXNT20 KNHC 170749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jun 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 15N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described
below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 16N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described
below while the northern portion is embedded in a dry Saharan
airmass.

Another tropical wave is moving near the Tropical N Atlantic
offshore zones along 53W, south of 16N, moving westward at around
10 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 19N just
SW of the Cayman Islands, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby
convection is described below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 06N30W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 04.5N40.5W, then resumes west of
a tropical wave near 04N43W to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W.
Scattered moderate convection if present from 04N to 09N east of
22W, from 04N to 09N between 28W and 32.5W, from 03N to 07N
between 38W and 45W, and from 02N to 04.5N between 49W and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft is producing a few showers in the northern half
of the Gulf of America, while drier conditions are prevalent
elsewhere. The subtropical ridge extends into the basin,
supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly waters south of 25N
and east of 95W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening through the next several days north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal
trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise,
surface ridging extending across most of the basin from the
western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds and
moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Sat
night. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are
forecast to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding a tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from along the border
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica to across the SW Caribbean to
northern Colombia through a 1010 mb low near 10N78.5W. Very active
convection is near the monsoon trough and a tropical wave
approaching Central America along 83W as described above.

An extensive subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean
Sea is forcing strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in
the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring
off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these
waters are 7-10 ft. In the rest of the north-central Caribbean
and Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate
seas are evident. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate
seas are present in the eastern and remainder of the western
Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and
rough seas to 11 ft are forecast across the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Sat night due to a prevalent Atlantic
subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trades will pulse at night in the Gulf of
Honduras through today and then stay strong through Thu while
expanding northward as the Bermuda High builds. Rough seas are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions of the NW
Caribbean tonight through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding tropical waves moving across the Atlantic.

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the entire tropical
Atlantic basin, extending a ridge from a 1024 mb high pressure
near 28N55W and a 1025 mb high pressure near 30N43W. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly trade winds are from 07N to 23N and west
of 35W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
S to SW winds are found offshore northern Florida. Moderate to
locally fresh N-NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found from 17N to
28N east of 22W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
are forecast south of 24N through Sat night as a broad subtropical
Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north
of Hispaniola at night into late week as the Bermuda High builds.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of NE
Florida through Thu associated with a surface trough extending
along the eastern United States. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week
and into the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky

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034=20
AXNT20 KNHC 281808
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jun 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Bay of Campeche (Invest AL91): Recent surface observations, satellite
imagery, and radar data from Mexico suggests a well-defined=20
surface circulation is developing with the area of low pressure=20
located in the Bay of Campeche near the Mexican coastline. In=20
addition, shower and thunderstorm activity is also starting to=20
show signs of organization. If these trends continue, a tropical=20
depression is likely to form, possibly as soon as this afternoon,=20
in the Bay of Campeche. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward this weekend towards eastern Mexico,=20
ultimately moving inland by Monday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system, and=20
interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of=20
this system. Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required=20
for portions of the Mexican Gulf coast as soon as this afternoon.=20
There is a HIGH chance of tropical formation over the next 48=20
hours. For more information on possible tropical development of=20
this system, please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http= ://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8wWes8aCzMXXgDMf5f8lNH8ksbLRy3xWVhySB3njUV= rP6lfpV5Ok0ta0euVFjx4UkFTRyThRNlmajGniZHVy2Kpbok0$ .=20
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rains are=20
possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern=20
Mexico during the next few days. There is also potential for flash
flooding and mudslides, particularly in hilly terrain. The=20
heaviest rainfall is forecast in the Mexican states of Veracruz,=20
San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas. Please refer to your local=20
meteorological service for more information on the potential for=20
flooding and heavy rainfall.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W across the western Cabo
Verde Islands from 18N southward, moving W at 5-10 kt. Convection
is described in the below ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.=20

Another east Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 47W from 14N=20
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
noted at this time.

A well-defined tropical wave is analyzed across the Lesser
Antilles along 62W, from 22N southward. Scattered moderate=20
convection is across the Leeward Islands, from 15N to 18N between=20
60W and 64W. The most recent satellite scatterometer data shows=20
fresh to locally strong trades east of the wave axis to 55W. The
tropical wave is moving westward at around 10-15 kt.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough extends from Dakar, Senegal to 08N28W. The=20
ITCZ then continues from 08N28W to 07N44W and from 07N50W to=20
07N57W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of both boundaries.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
low pressure (Invest AL91) that will bring heavy rains to=20
portions of SW Mexico and has a MEDIUM chance of tropical cyclone=20
formation.

Elsewhere outside of the Bay of Campeche, moderate to fresh E to
SE winds prevail with 3-5 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection
is affecting the NE Gulf waters, from 27N to 30N east of 85W. The
weather across the Gulf outside of the Bay of Campeche is guided
by subtropical Atlantic high pressure centered just NE of the
Bahamas.

For the forecast, aside from the Bay of Campeche, a surface ridge
will dominate the northern Gulf waters through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a
TROPICAL WAVE moving across the Lesser Antilles and into the
eastern Caribbean.

A tight pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean due to
subtropical Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in NW
Colombia. The latest satellite scatterometer data detected fresh=20
to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia, where seas are 8-11 ft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas. Fresh winds are also
noted in the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High=20
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will continue to support=20
fresh to strong trades across most of the central and SW Caribbean
through early next week. Winds will pulse to near- gale force off
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to=20
strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will continue through the=20
weekend.=20

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on the
TROPICAL WAVES moving across the basin.

1023 mb high pressure is centered near 29N74W and 1025 mb high=20
pressure is centered near 28N45W. Together, these high pressures=20
dominate most of the tropical Atlantic basin, providing for=20
moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas. South of 20N, trades may
reach locally fresh speeds.=20

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated=20
ridge will prevail across the region into late next week. Moderate
to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N.=20
Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons=20
into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to=20
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
Mahoney

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129=20
AXNT20 KNHC 282311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jun 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Two forms in the Bay of Campeche. This system
is centered near 19.3N 94.2W at 28/2100 UTC or 210 nm ESE of=20
Tuxpan Mexico, moving WNW at 6 kt, and this motion is expected to=20
continue for the next day or two. On the following track the=20
depression is expected to make landfall along the Mexico coast on
Sunday night and move further inland on Monday. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25=20
kt with gusts to 35 kt. Some intensification is forecast over the=20
next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical
storm before reaching the coast of Mexico. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm W semicircle of
center. Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall=20
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 10 inches possible
across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and=20
Tamaulipas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban=20
flooding.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4msD9fiw3lc6Q-m38-5mMmE_h3Njv-FNOEYPw4x37kVmuRkiXfAF4Tg7giSZ5QMSD= VxI5k4guMw-U1CHxPNoQcoJI48$ and the latest Two=20
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://urldefense.com/v3/__ht= tp://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4msD9fiw3lc6Q-m38-5mMmE_h3Njv-FNOEYPw4x3= 7kVmuRkiXfAF4Tg7giSZ5QMSDVxI5k4guMw-U1CHxPNoScglE9A$=20=20
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 25W, and extends southward
from the western Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 5 to 10 kt.=20
scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the
mon soon trough, particularly from 08N to 11N between 23W and
27W.=20

A second tropical wave is along 50W from 15N southward, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

A well-defined tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean.
Its axis is analyzed along 62W/63W, from 22N southward, moving westward=20
at 10 to 15 kt. Scatterometer data clearly indicate the wind shift
associated with the wave axis, with fresh to strong winds mainly
on the E side of this feature. Moderate to rough seas are within
these winds. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted along the
wave axis, mainly from 12N to 17N between 59W and 64W. This convective
activity is affecting parts of the Lesser Antilles.=20

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough extends from Dakar, Senegal to 08N30W. The=20
ITCZ then continues from 08N30W to 06N47W to 07N60W. Aside from
the convective activity related to the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is observed from 07N to 11N between 13W and=20
18W.=20

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
newly formed T.D. Two in the Bay of Campeche.=20

Elsewhere outside of the tropical cyclone, a ridge dominates the
Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the=20
tropical depression supports an area of moderate to fresh E to SE
winds within about 300 nm NE of the tropical depression. Gentle=20
to moderate easterly winds are seen across the remainder of the
Gulf. Seas are building to 8 ft near the tropical depression.
Slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, T.D. Two will move to 19.7N 95.1W Sun morning,
strengthen to a tropical storm near 20.8N 96.1W Sun afternoon,=20
21.9N 97.7W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical=20
depression near 22.1N 98.7W Mon afternoon. Otherwise, a surface=20
ridge will dominate the northern Gulf waters through early next=20
week.=20

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please=20
see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information.=20

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian
low supports fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean, fresh to locally strong winds over the SW Caribbean
and in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds are also=20
noted in the Windward Passage, with moderate to fresh E winds in
the lee of Cuba. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the south-central=20
Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Moderate seas are noted=20
elsewhere, with the highest seas in the 6 to 7 ft range in the=20
Windward Passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras. An upper-level low
centered near the SE Bahamas is helping to induce showers and
thunderstorms over Hispaniola, and between Haiti and Jamaica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific
monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across most
of the central and SW Caribbean through early next week. Winds
will pulse to near-gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of=20
Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf=20
of Honduras will continue through the rest of the weekend.=20

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and the
Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for=20
more details.=20

High pressure and associated ridge dominates the entire Atlantic
forecast area, with the main center of 1026 mb located NE of the
Azores. Moderate to fresh trades are blowing S of 20N while=20
gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 20N. Seas are in general
moderate.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High and=20
associated ridge will prevail across the region into late next=20
week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will=20
prevail S of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from
late afternoons into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the=20
period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are=20
expected elsewhere.=20

$$
GR

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515=20
AXNT20 KNHC 290602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jun 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression (TD) Two is centered near 19.7N 95.1W at=20
29/0300 UTC or 70 nm ENE of Veracruz Mexico, estimated minimum=20
central pressure is 1011 mb. It is moving WNW at 7 kt, and this=20
motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On the=20
current track, the depression is expected to make landfall along=20
the Mexico coast Sunday night and move further inland on Monday.=20
Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Some=20
intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and the=20
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching=20
the coast of Mexico. Numerous moderate to isolated strong=20
convection is noted up to 90 nm SW of center. Scattered moderate=20
convection is evident up to 100 nm NW of the center. Seas in the
vicinity of TD Two are from 5 to 7 ft. TD Two is expected to=20
produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across the Mexican states
of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall will=20
increase the chance of flash and urban flooding.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!_MMvS4Fcq162sWmS3mQ3GjqCoLdVgNFSdQAS-wOZvV82Km2Qh0LmjQh1yyc466ovv= dAtQK3405_UeBP0ezYZjNVWVSQ$ and=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!_MMvS4Fcq162sWmS3mQ3GjqCoLdVgNFSdQAS-wOZvV82Km2Qh0LmjQh1yyc466ovv= dAtQK3405_UeBP0ezYZePAH7ks$ for more details
For the latest TD Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,=20
please visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3f= jg!_MMvS4Fcq162sWmS3mQ3GjqCoLdVgNFSdQAS-wOZvV82Km2Qh0LmjQh1yyc466ovvdAtQK34= 05_UeBP0ezYZrSUF6Gs$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from just west of
the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving west at 10 kt. Widely=20
scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between=20
24W and 28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 14N southward,=20
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is present from 09N to 11N between 53W and 60W.

A robust eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 21N
southward across the Virgin Islands into northeastern Venezuela.
It is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
flaring up over the northeastern and east-central basin, including
waters near the Lesser Antilles.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward to 08N30W. An=20
ITCZ continues westward from 08N30W to 06N48W. Scattered moderate=20
convection is observed south of the monsoon trough from 06N to 11N
between 16W and 24W, and up to 100 nm along either side of the=20
ITCZ between 30W and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section on Tropical Depression
(TD) Two in the Bay of Campeche.=20

A surface trough north of TD Two is generating scattered moderate
convection at the west-central and northwestern Gulf south of 26N.
A surface trough near the west of coast of Florida is causing
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the
northeastern and east-central Gulf. A 1020 mb high is dominating
the northeastern and east-central Gulf with gentle winds and 1 to
3 ft seas. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
are present at the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida
Straits. Moderate with locally fresh SE to SSE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Gulf outside the influence of TD=20
Two.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Two will move to 20.3N=20
96.0W Sun morning, then strengthen to a tropical storm near 21.3N=20
97.3W Sun evening. Afterward, TD Two should move inland and=20
weaken to a tropical depression near 22.1N 98.8W Mon morning
before dissipating Mon evening. Otherwise, a surface ridge will=20
dominate the northern Gulf waters through early next week.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1021 mb Bermuda High continues to promote a trade-wind regime
across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are=20
triggering isolated thunderstorms between Cuba and Jamaica, and=20
near the Windward Passage. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for
additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh with locally=20
strong ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at the=20
south-central and east-central basin. Fresh to strong E winds with
5 to 7 ft seas dominate the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate=20
E to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin.
Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in NE swell are seen=20
near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and=20
seas at 5 to 8 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High=20
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the East=20
Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across=20
most of the central and southwestern basin into the middle of=20
next week. Winds will pulse to near-gale force off Colombia and=20
in the Gulf of Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to locally strong
winds over the Gulf of Honduras will continue through the rest of
the weekend.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper-level low centered over the southeast Bahamas is=20
triggering widely scattered to scattered moderate convection from
22N to 30N between 70W and the Florida coast. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A subtropical ridge
extends southwestward from a 1025 mb Azores High across another
1025 mb high near 28N47W to a 1021 Bermuda High at 73W. These
features are supporting light to gentle winds with 3 to 4 ft seas
in light mixed swells north of 25N between 35W and the
Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N
to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to
fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft exist. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated=20
ridge will prevail across the region through late next week.=20
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail
south of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from=20
late afternoons into the overnights north of Hispaniola through=20
Thu. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are=20
expected elsewhere.=20

$$

Chan

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664=20
AXNT20 KNHC 291032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jun 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Two is centered near 19.9N 95.9W at 29/0900
UTC or 40 nm NNE of Veracruz Mexico, moving WNW at 8 kt. The
depression is forecast to turn a bit more NW today and reach the
coast of eastern Mexico by tonight. Estimated minimum central=20
pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with=20
gusts to 40 kt. Slight additional strengthening is possible before
the system moves inland, but it should quickly dissipate over the
rugged terrain of Mexico Mon. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Seas have
increased to 8 to 10 ft and will likely build further through
today. Heavy rainfall over the Mexican states of Veracruz, San
Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas may lead to life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-MxqpspZuA8m-NOrlSNoBZFQUWpr4tn7jnq_XXwHgqk3UoqNmp7wYHcTojkHR8-5s= --fMOCjcsOb-EU93GnGfNZkiyc$ and=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-MxqpspZuA8m-NOrlSNoBZFQUWpr4tn7jnq_XXwHgqk3UoqNmp7wYHcTojkHR8-5s= --fMOCjcsOb-EU93GnGItNA724$ for more details
For the latest TD Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,=20
please visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3f= jg!-MxqpspZuA8m-NOrlSNoBZFQUWpr4tn7jnq_XXwHgqk3UoqNmp7wYHcTojkHR8-5s--fMOCj= csOb-EU93GnGl7tby3I$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa this
morning and has an axis positioned along 18W, extending southward
from 18N. It is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 09N to 14N between 17W and 22W.=20

An east Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 30W from 18W
southward, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.=20

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is noted along 54W from 14N
southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered modeate
convection is present ahead of the wave from 09N to 12N between
54W and 60W.=20

A well-definited tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean has an
aixs along 66W extending from Puerto Rico to central Venezuela. It
is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
across the SE Caribbean in association with this wave, mainly S of
15N and E of 70W.=20

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal SW to 08N30W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N30W to 06N49W. Scattered moderate=20
convection is observed up to 100 nm along either side of the ITCZ=20
between 30W and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on=20
Tropical Depression Two in the Bay of Campeche.=20

A surface trough north of T.D. Two is generating scattered=20
moderate convection from 21N to 27N W of 91W. The surface trough=20
that had been inducing some convection on waters near the Florida=20
coast has moved inland, with associated convection over land. A=20
1021 mb high pressure is centered in the NE Gulf. Away from T.D.=20
Two, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the
western Gulf. For the eastern basin, mainly gentle SE winds and=20
seas of less than 3 ft prevail, along some moderate E winds and=20
seas to 4 ft are impacting the Florida Straits and adjacent Gulf=20
waters.=20

For the forecast, aside from T.D. Two, a surface ridge will=20
dominate the northern Gulf waters through early week.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1022 mb Bermuda High continues to promote a trade-wind regime=20
across much of the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Tropical Waves=20
section information on convection in the SE basin. Fresh to=20
locally strong E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at the=20
south- central basin. Fresh E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas dominate=20
the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft dominate the remainder of the basin, except for the NW, where
seas are 2 to 4 ft.=20

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific
monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across most
of the central and SW Caribbean into mid-week. Winds will pulse=20
to near- gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela,=20
with rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds over the Gulf of=20
Honduras will continue into tonight.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convection in association with and upper-level low centered just E
of the Bahamas has diminished overnight. The remaining convection
in the basin is associated with tropical waves and the ITCZ and is
described in the named sections above. A subtropical ridge axis
extends across the northern waters, leading to light to gentle
winds and seas less than 4 ft for waters N of 25N. To the south,=20
moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate.=20
The highest trades and seas are closest to the Lesser Antilles.=20

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated=20
ridge will prevail across the region through late week. Moderate=20
to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N.=20
Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons=20
into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to=20
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.


$$
Konarik

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279=20
AXNT20 KNHC 291606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jun 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1606 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Barry is near 20.4N 96.2W at 11=20
AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds=20
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to make=20
landfall and then move inland over eastern Mexico later today or=20
tonight. A little more intensification is forecast before the=20
system reaches the coast of eastern Mexico. Rapid weakening is=20
expected after the system moves inland. Tropical Storm Barry is=20
expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with=20
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across the Mexican states of
Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas through Monday. This=20
rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides,=20
especially in areas of steep terrain. Numerous moderate to=20
isolated strong convection is noted west of 94W. Seas have=20
increased to 8 to 11 ft and will likely build further through=20
today.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!9jyXlPGa2NnUaTeJ5Ihe3ECLCuhHdIKsmc3n2yk6_-DrOpxVPKVfZSFH1owC-gTHG= _gQhckdfqke0rS-TO62nh6vTws$ and=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!9jyXlPGa2NnUaTeJ5Ihe3ECLCuhHdIKsmc3n2yk6_-DrOpxVPKVfZSFH1owC-gTHG= _gQhckdfqke0rS-TO62GEUS49c$ for more details
For the latest T.S. Barry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public=20
Advisory, please visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.go= v__;!!DZ3fjg!9jyXlPGa2NnUaTeJ5Ihe3ECLCuhHdIKsmc3n2yk6_-DrOpxVPKVfZSFH1owC-g= THG_gQhckdfqke0rS-TO62OMfWu_s$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa this
morning and has an axis positioned along 19W, extending southward
from 14N. It is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate=20
convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 18W and 23.5W.=20

An east Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 31W from 18N=20
southward, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.=20

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is noted along 55W from 14.5N
southward, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection
is depicted at this time in association with this wave.

A well-defined tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean has an axis
along 67W extending from Puerto Rico to central Venezuela. It is=20
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted=20
along the wave axis, mainly E of 67W.=20

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continues=20 southwestward to 06N38W. The ITCZ continues from 06N38W to 04N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N between
33W and 40W.=20

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on=20
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Barry in the Bay of Campeche.=20

An upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection
across the northern Gulf. Away from T.S. Barry, moderate to fresh
SE winds and seas of 4 to 8 ft dominate the Gulf west of 90W. For
the eastern basin, east of 90W, mainly gentle SE winds and seas=20
of less than 1 to 3 ft prevail, along some moderate E to SE winds=20
and seas to 4 ft are impacting the Florida Straits and adjacent=20
Gulf waters.=20

For the forecast, recently upgraded Tropical Storm Barry is near=20
20.4N 96.2W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 5 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum=20
central pressure is 1006 mb. Barry will move to 21.2N 97.2W this=20
evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near=20
22.0N 98.2W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. Otherwise, a=20
surface ridge will dominate the northern Gulf waters through early
week.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
on a tropical wave moving across the basin.

An upper level trough is supporting numerous moderate convection=20
from the Windward Passage to Jamaica. A 1023 mb Bermuda High=20
continues to promote a trade- wind regime across much of the=20
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong E winds and seas of 7 to 9
ft are evident at the south- central basin. Fresh E winds with 4=20
to 6 ft seas dominate the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh=20
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the remainder of the basin,=20
except for the NW, where seas are 3 to 5 ft.=20

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High=20
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E=20
Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across=20
most of the central and SW Caribbean into mid-week. Winds will=20
pulse to near- gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of=20
Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds over the
Gulf of Honduras will continue into tonight.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low over the Bahamas is producing scattered=20
moderate convection over the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. The
remaining convection in the basin is associated with tropical=20
waves and the ITCZ and is described in the named sections above. A
subtropical ridge axis extends across the northern waters,=20
leading to light to gentle winds and seas less than 4 ft for=20
waters N of 25N. To the south, moderate to locally fresh trades=20
and seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate. The highest trades and seas are=20
closest to the Lesser Antilles.=20

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated=20
ridge will prevail across the region through late week. Moderate=20
to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N.=20
Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons=20
into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to=20
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
KRV

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258=20
AXNT20 KNHC 292348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jun 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Barry is centered near at 29/0000 UTC or 50 nm SE
of Tampico Mexico, moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central=20
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with=20
gusts to 50 kt. Barry is nearing the eastern Gulf coast of Mexico.
On the forecast track, the storm is expected to make landfall=20
within the tropical storm warning area in the next several hours=20
and then move inland over eastern Mexico later tonight. Little change=20
in strength is anticipated before Barry makes landfall, but rapid
weakening is expected to begin after the storm moves inland. Barry is=20 expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states
of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas through Monday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,=20
especially in areas of steep terrain. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 25N and west of 93W. Seas to 12 ft
are within 30 nm NE quadrant of Barry's center.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!66z7mH8mTEn_gQq-dtYC52N4D2Hb3uA-LoWBXswk9-FGao2biT5IzYIury5Gam5Yc= _ia1PsJxMN17IPpE_Hw4P7Fc28$ and the latest=20
Barry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!66z7mH8mTE= n_gQq-dtYC52N4D2Hb3uA-LoWBXswk9-FGao2biT5IzYIury5Gam5Yc_ia1PsJxMN17IPpE_Hwx= p6tUi4$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W and extends southward=20
from 14N. It is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate=20
convection is ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 11N between 20W
and 24W.

A second Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 32W from 18N=20
southward, moving W at around 10 kt. A few showers is near the
wave axis from 08N to 13N between 30W and 35W.=20

A third Atlantic tropical wave axis is noted along 56W from=20
14.5N southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Convection is
limited near the wave axis.=20

A well-defined tropical wave continues to move westward at 10 to
15 kt across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis extends from the
Mona Passage to western Venezuela, where it is enhancing some=20
convective activity. Once again, scatterometer data indicate the
wind shift associated with the wave axis, with moderate to fresh
winds on either side of it.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 11N16W and=20
continues W, then SW to near 06N39W. The ITCZ continues from=20
06N39W to 04N50W. Convection is limited.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on=20
Tropical Storm Barry located about 85 nm SE of Tampico, Mexico.

Elsewhere outside of the tropical cyclone, a ridge dominates the
Gulf of America region. The pressure gradient between the ridge=20
and T.S. Barry supports an area of fresh to locally strong SE=20
winds over the Bay of Campeche. Scatterometer data also indicate=20
an area of fresh to strong SE to S winds off the coast of S Texas
and NE Mexico, likely associated with the convection there. Gentle
to moderate easterly winds are seen across the remainder of the=20
Gulf. Seas are to 8 ft in the NE quadrant of Barry. Slight to=20
moderate seas are noted elsewhere.=20

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting mainly the=20
southern parts of the N Gulf states and NE Mexico. Showers and=20
thunderstorms are also flared-up over Florida. Gusty winds to=20
gale force could be associated with the thunderstorms.=20

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Barry is near 21.2N 96.9W at 5 PM=20
EDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds=20
are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure=20
is 1006 mb. Barry will move inland and weaken to a tropical=20
depression near 22.0N 97.9W Mon morning, inland to 22.8N 98.8W=20
Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. Otherwise, a surface=20
ridge will dominate the northern Gulf waters through early this=20
week before retreating eastward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please=20
see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information.=20

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian
low continues to support fresh to strong trade winds over the=20
south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across the=20
remainder of the east and central Caribbean, including the Lesser
Antilles. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the lee of Cuba,
and in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds=20
are noted. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean off=20
the coast of Colombia, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except in the lee
of Cuba, and in the vicinity of Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua=20
where slight seas prevail. An upper-level low spinning over the=20
central Bahamas is helping to induce showers and thunderstorms=20
over parts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E=20
Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades and=20
rough seas across most of the central and SW Caribbean through=20
the week. Winds will occasionally pulse to near-gale force off=20
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.=20
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and the=20
Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more=20
details.=20

High pressure and its associated ridge dominates the entire Atlantic
forecast area, with a 1023 mb center located near 29N63W, and=20
another center of 1021 mb situated NE of the Azores. This system
has weakened since yesterday as a frontal boundary reaches the
Azores. Moderate to fresh trades are observed along the southern
periphery of the ridge S of 20N and W of 45W, while moderate to=20
locally fresh trades dominate the remainder of the tropical=20
Atlantic based on satellite derived wind data. Gentle to moderate
winds are observed N of 20N. Seas are in general moderate. As
previously mentioned, an upper-level low centered over the central
Bahamas is promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms over=20
the waters W of 70W, including the Bahamas, and the Turks and=20
Caicos Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge=20
will prevail across the region through late in the week. Moderate
to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N.=20
Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons=20
into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
GR

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207=20
AXNT20 KNHC 300505 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jun 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Barry is centered near 22.0N 97.8W at
30/0300 UTC or 10 nm SSE of Tampico Mexico, moving NW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted south of 28N and west of 92W.
Peak seas occurring offshore Tampico are near 8 ft. Continued
weakening is forecast, and Barry should dissipate over eastern=20
Mexico on Monday. The depression is moving toward the northwest=20
near 6 kt and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight. Barry or its remnant is expected to produce rainfall=20
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10=20
inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz, San=20
Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may=20
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in=20
areas of steep terrain.=20

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!5ZYQZFmbiW5CCaF91gicaXx_gcKMT-vS-nBHhtK0lSK_9FQ-hANz7JWbawCcCzAj1= wexcCfpIXmLMl0s1z-xaO-9yIM$ and the latest=20
Barry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ZYQZFmbiW= 5CCaF91gicaXx_gcKMT-vS-nBHhtK0lSK_9FQ-hANz7JWbawCcCzAj1wexcCfpIXmLMl0s1z-xR= NWmNmk$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 14N,=20
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
observed from 06N to 12N and between 20W and 28W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 16N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 12N and between 28W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 15N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
evident along the trough axis.

A well-defined tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along
70W, south of 19N, moving westward around 15-20 kt. The wave is
enhancing the convection in Hispaniola and western Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N30W and to 06N42W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N42W to 04N52W. A few showers are present within=20
120 nm of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on=20
Tropical Depression Barry centered over northern Veracruz.

Outside of the influence of Barry, a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found in the eastern Gulf waters. A high
pressure system in the NE Gulf supports moderate to locally fresh
E-SE winds and moderate seas west of 90W and also south of 25N and
east of 90W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail.

For the forecast, recently-downgraded and now inland Tropical=20
Depression Barry is near 22.0N 97.8W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving=20
northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Barry will=20
move to 22.7N 98.5W Mon morning and dissipate Mon evening.=20
Otherwise, by the end of the week, a weak cold front will likely=20
settle into the northern Gulf..

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please=20
see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information.=20

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea is
forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the
central and eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. A recent=20
scatterometer satellite pass also captured near gale-force off NW=20
Colombia. Seas of 6-9 ft (2-3 m) are found in the central and=20
eastern Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring off NW=20
Colombia. Moderate seas are evident in the Gulf of Honduras.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent
in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific
monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades and rough
seas across most of the central and SW Caribbean through late=20
week. Winds will occasionally pulse to near- gale force off=20
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.=20
=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.=20
Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details.=20

An upper level low is moving slowly westward over the NW Bahamas
producing a few showers over the SE Bahamas and enhancing the
strong convection over Florida and surrounding waters. Farther
east, a surface trough is found SE of Bermuda and a few showers
are seen near this boundary. The remainder of the SW North
Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad
subtropical ridge sustaining moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds south of 25N and west of 55W. Seas in these waters are 4-7
ft (1.5-2 m). Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent elsewhere west of 55W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb high
pressure system in the northern Atlantic. The tighe pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa
support fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 20N and east of 25W.
Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft (2-2.5 m). Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found
south of 25N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region through late week. Moderate=20
to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N.=20
Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons=20
into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to=20
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.
By the end of the week, a weak cold front is likely to move off=20
the SE U.S. coast into the NW waters.

$$
Delgado

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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