697=20
WTNT41 KNHC 180249
TCDAT1
=20
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Surface observations indicated that the center of Arthur re-formed=20
near Galveston around 21-22Z in response to an offshore convective=20
burst. Since that time, there has been no organized convection near=20
the center, and the circulation has become elongated along the Upper=20
Texas coast. Based on these developments, and the expectation that=20
organized convection will not reform near the center, Arthur is no=20
longer a tropical cyclone and is being downgraded to a post-tropical=20
low with 30 kt winds.

While the motion is a bit uncertain due to the center reformation,=20
it appears that the system is starting to move a bit faster toward=20
the northeast with the initial motion estimated at 040/8 kt. A=20
general northeastward motion is expected until the surface center=20
dissipates tonight over southeastern Texas or southwestern=20
Louisiana. After that, the remnants of Arthur should move east-=20 northeastward across the southeastern United States and emerge into=20
the Atlantic on Friday. A continued east-northeastward motion out to=20
sea is expected thereafter.

As mentioned, the surface center of Arthur is expected to dissipate=20
later tonight. The global models suggest that the surface center=20
could reform near the Atlantic coast on Friday, with some=20
intensification possible as the system moves out to sea. It is=20
unclear at this time whether this re-development will be due to=20
tropical cyclone processes or baroclinic process. However, marine=20
gale warnings are being issued for portions of the western Atlantic=20
in anticipation of this development.
=20
Even though Arthur is no longer a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall=20
and life-threatening flash flooding will continue to be a major=20
hazard for the next few days across the southeastern United States.=20
There is also an increased tornado threat for portions of the=20
southeastern U.S. through Thursday.

That is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on=20
this system. Rainfall forecasts for the remnants of Arthur in the=20
United States can be found at=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml__;= !!DZ3fjg!63nzWYiToXGcVKybg0i7o1IvvrShm9jb8XgEKwAT9L9OSfD5-pScwXWxIbpBOLrCl1= hKduhesB3gSoRVNtsaw2xze4s$ and outlooks of flash=20
flood risks can be found at=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rai= nfall_outlook_ero.php__;!!DZ3fjg!63nzWYiToXGcVKybg0i7o1IvvrShm9jb8XgEKwAT9L= 9OSfD5-pScwXWxIbpBOLrCl1hKduhesB3gSoRVNtsagTSDAQY$=20
=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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